Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAINE-16 Off-shore from 18 Sep 2016 03:00 UTC to 21 Sep 2016 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAINE-16

Off-shore

21 Sep 2016 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAINE-16 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	148 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (20 Sep 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	148 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	18 Sep 2016 03:00	83	---	No people
2	18 Sep 2016 09:00	93	---	No people	Mexico
3	18 Sep 2016 15:00	93	---	No people
4	18 Sep 2016 21:00	120	---	No people
5	19 Sep 2016 03:00	120	---	No people
6	19 Sep 2016 09:00	120	---	No people
7	19 Sep 2016 15:00	139	---	No people	Mexico
8	19 Sep 2016 21:00	148	---	No people	Mexico
9	20 Sep 2016 03:00	130	---	No people
10	20 Sep 2016 09:00	93	---	No people
11	20 Sep 2016 15:00	74	---	No people
12	20 Sep 2016 21:00	56	---	No people
13	21 Sep 2016 03:00	56	---	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Sep 2016 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.7, -110
2	18 Sep 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	17.3, -110.7	Mexico
3	18 Sep 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	17.5, -111.4
4	18 Sep 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	18.5, -112.9
5	19 Sep 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	19.5, -113.8
6	19 Sep 2016 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	20.6, -114.6
7	19 Sep 2016 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	22, -115.4
8	19 Sep 2016 21:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	22.8, -116.2
9	20 Sep 2016 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	23.8, -116.7
10	20 Sep 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	24.8, -116.8
11	20 Sep 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	26.1, -117
12	20 Sep 2016 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.2, -116.9
13	21 Sep 2016 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	28, -116.5
13	21 Sep 2016 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	29.1, -116	Mexico
13	22 Sep 2016 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	30.2, -115.2	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Roca Partido Island		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in San Felipe, Mexico. This height is estimated for 20 Sep 2016 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (1 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 20 Sep 2016 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 Sep 2016 21:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.