Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
02 Jan 2018 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (04 Jan 19:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 120 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      120 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 1 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 17000 people -15.6, 52.7 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 1 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.5 million people -16.3, 52 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 28000 people 3.7 million people -16.9, 51.2 Madagascar
          RED
          		 1 04 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 1.3 million people 10.5 million people -17.4, 50.3 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 1 05 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 13.6 million people -18.9, 48.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 1 06 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 6.9 million people -21.6, 47.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 1 07 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24.2, 47.2 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 29000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Sainte Marie SMS 2 Civ. Paved No 3300
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Saint Mary Island Madagascar
          Port Sainte Marie Madagascar
          Fenerive Madagascar
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Vohilava, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 04 Jan 2018 19:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (122 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 02 Jan 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.4
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.4
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.4
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 03:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 23:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 02:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 03:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 23:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 04:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 13:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 22:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 02:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 02:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 02:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 22:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 20:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 23:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 00:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 04:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 04:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 03:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 20:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 00:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 02:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 01:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1