Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
05 Jan 2018 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (06 Jan 04:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 176 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      176 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 120 13.4 million 360 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.4 million 970 thousand Madagascar
        Red 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 130 18.2 million 1.8 million Madagascar
        Orange 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 130 16.5 million 6 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 130 17.2 million 1.1 million Madagascar
        Orange 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 130 17.6 million 470 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 10 05 Jan 2018 00:00 167 18.3 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 11 05 Jan 2018 06:00 176 17.7 million 1.3 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 53.1
          GREEN
          		 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 16000 people -16.6, 53.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.2 million people -17.3, 52.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.7 million people -17.8, 52.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 3.6 million people -17.4, 51.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 4.3 million people -17.3, 51 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 10 05 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 200000 people 10 million people -17.2, 50.5 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 11 05 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 650000 people 12 million people -17.9, 50 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 11 05 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 2 167 500000 people 14.5 million people -18.7, 49.3 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 11 06 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 157 570000 people 14.8 million people -19.8, 48.9 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 11 06 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 73000 people 13.2 million people -21.4, 48.7 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 07 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 148 no people 8.8 million people -22.8, 48.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 08 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 148 no people 4.8 million people -24.7, 48.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 09 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people 980000 people -26.9, 47.7 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 10 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -28.7, 48.4
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Marosiky, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Jan 2018 04:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (168 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 05 Jan 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.6
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 20:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 10:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 21:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 20:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 20:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Savana Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Esama Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 14:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 13:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 04:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 20:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 05:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 13:00 Bemahala Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 13:00 Vodivola Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 05:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 14:00 Mitriaky Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 14:00 Amberio Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 23:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
          09 Jan 2018 00:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
          09 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 04:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Sarahanonoy Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 18:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1