Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
04 Jan 2018 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (05 Jan 13:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 130 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      130 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.1 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 120 13.4 million 360 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.4 million 970 thousand Madagascar
        Red 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 130 18.2 million 1.8 million Madagascar
        Orange 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 130 16.5 million 6 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 130 17.2 million 1.1 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 53.1
          GREEN
          		 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 16000 people -16.6, 53.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.2 million people -17.3, 52.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.7 million people -17.8, 52.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 3.6 million people -17.4, 51.4 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 8 05 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 420000 people 9.4 million people -17.6, 50.3 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 8 05 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 130 720000 people 13.1 million people -18.1, 49.6 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 8 06 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 540000 people 14.3 million people -19.1, 49.1 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 8 06 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 250000 people 14.8 million people -20.4, 48.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 07 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people 7.6 million people -23, 48.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people 2.7 million people -24.9, 48.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 09 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -26.4, 47.4
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Tamatave, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Jan 2018 13:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (164 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 04 Jan 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 20:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 03:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 05:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 07:00 Esama Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 10:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 08:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 08:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 08:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 08:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 16:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 03:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 03:00 Savana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 12:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 04:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 03:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Amberio Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 20:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 03:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 10:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 13:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 13:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 17:00 Bemahala Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 17:00 Vodivola Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 20:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 09:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 09:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Mitriaky Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 11:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 13:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 22:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 13:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 19:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Antanandava Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Ampasimpolaka Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 13:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 06:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 17:00 Tanilahy Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 18:00 Sarahanonoy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 10:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Maroloha Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Belay Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Analapetsa Madagascar  0.1