Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for VICKY-20
in Niue, American Samoa, Samoa
22 Feb 2020 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone VICKY-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Samoa, Niue
Exposed population 3 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (22 Feb 01:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Niue)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 140 km/h 0.2 m 560 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.2 m 560 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

140 km/h

Up to 3 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Samoa2,587 
Tropical StormSamoa, Niue195,231
+
Samoa194,041 
Niue1,190 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Feb 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 21 Feb 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 21 Feb 2020 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 21 Feb 2020 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 21 Feb 2020 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 22 Feb 2020 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Samoa
GREEN 7 22 Feb 2020 06:00 140 3 thousand
- - - - Samoa, Niue
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmSamoa28,262 
50-100 mmTokelau, Cook Islands, American Samoa, Niue225,423
+
Tokelau1,337 
Cook Islands299 
American Samoa54,517 
Samoa168,366 
Niue904 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Feb 2020 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 21 Feb 2020 00:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 21 Feb 2020 06:00 165 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 21 Feb 2020 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 Feb 2020 18:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 22 Feb 2020 00:00 158 -
- - - - - Samoa
Blue 7 22 Feb 2020 06:00 274 -
- - - - - Cook Islands, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Samatau, Samoa. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2020 01:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Feb 2020 01:45 Samatau Samoa  0.2
22 Feb 2020 01:45 Fuailalo Samoa  0.2
22 Feb 2020 01:45 Fasitootai Samoa  0.2
22 Feb 2020 01:45 Faleaseela Samoa  0.2
22 Feb 2020 01:45 Saleimoa Samoa  0.2
22 Feb 2020 01:45 Utuavanua Samoa  0.2
22 Feb 2020 01:45 Apia Samoa  0.2
22 Feb 2020 14:45 Solosolo Samoa  0.1