Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ORLENE-22 in Mexico from 29 Sep 2022 03:00 UTC to 04 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	3 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Oct 11:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	158 km/h	0.4 m	539 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	158 km/h	0.4 m	539 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

Up to 3 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	Mexico	2,859
Tropical Storm	Mexico	46,157

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	29 Sep 2022 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2022 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2022 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	29 Sep 2022 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2022 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2022 06:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2022 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Sep 2022 18:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2022 00:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2022 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2022 12:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	01 Oct 2022 18:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2022 00:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2022 06:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	02 Oct 2022 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	02 Oct 2022 18:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	03 Oct 2022 00:00	144	Few people			-	-	-	-	Mexico
18	03 Oct 2022 06:00	137	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
19	03 Oct 2022 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
20	03 Oct 2022 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	04 Oct 2022 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	04 Oct 2022 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	04 Oct 2022 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	04 Oct 2022 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	05 Oct 2022 00:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico, Guatemala	5,920,900	+
	Mexico	3,465,701
	Guatemala	2,455,198
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador	26,286,930	+
	United States	70,971
	Mexico	21,840,863
	Guatemala	4,186,934
	El Salvador	188,161

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	29 Sep 2022 00:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2022 06:00	203	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2022 12:00	161	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	29 Sep 2022 18:00	80	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2022 00:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2022 06:00	107	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2022 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Sep 2022 18:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2022 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2022 06:00	164	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2022 12:00	161	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	01 Oct 2022 18:00	124	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2022 00:00	179	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2022 06:00	201	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	02 Oct 2022 12:00	272	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
16	02 Oct 2022 18:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	03 Oct 2022 00:00	186	3 thousand	-		-	-	-	-	Mexico
18	03 Oct 2022 06:00	132	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
19	03 Oct 2022 12:00	129	70 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
20	03 Oct 2022 18:00	36	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	04 Oct 2022 00:00	129	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	04 Oct 2022 06:00	55	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	04 Oct 2022 12:00	150	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	04 Oct 2022 18:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	05 Oct 2022 00:00	338	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Caimanero, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2022 11:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
0.25 - 0.5 m	Mexico	8,680

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)

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Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.