GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Red Tropical Cyclone alert in Philippines for HAGUPIT-14 from 01 Dec 2014 12:00 UTC to 12 Dec 2014 00:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone HAGUPIT-14
Beta
alertimage

Orange alert for storm surge impact in Philippines

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 16 of tropical cyclone HAGUPIT-14 issued at 4 Dec 2014 18:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000130).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 2.7 million
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 5
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 286 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  1.3m in Pequit, Philippines. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2014 21:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Show forecast grid

Observation

eSurge eSurge was activated for this event: Advanced storm surge products (eSurge)

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Dec 2014 21:00:00 Pequit Philippines  1.3m
06 Dec 2014 21:00:00 Pabanong Philippines  1.3m
06 Dec 2014 21:00:00 Hinabangan Philippines  1.3m
06 Dec 2014 22:00:00 Wright Philippines  1.3m
07 Dec 2014 21:00:00 Barceloneta Philippines  1.3m
08 Dec 2014 11:00:00 Apad Lutao Philippines  1.3m
07 Dec 2014 15:00:00 Cagotaw Philippines  1.2m
08 Dec 2014 11:00:00 Lopez Philippines  1.2m
08 Dec 2014 11:00:00 Calauag Philippines  1.2m
08 Dec 2014 07:00:00 Capuluan Philippines  1.2m
07 Dec 2014 02:00:00 Mondragon Philippines  1.2m
08 Dec 2014 12:00:00 Argosino Philippines  1.2m
08 Dec 2014 12:00:00 Talingting Philippines  1.1m
06 Dec 2014 22:00:00 Bangon Philippines  1.1m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 517)
Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 04 Dec 2014 18:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.