GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KILO-15
from 20 Aug 2015 21:00 UTC to 31 Aug 2015 15:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone KILO-15
Beta
alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact in Japan

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 44 of tropical cyclone KILO-15 issued at 31 Aug 2015 15:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000200). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 4
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 222 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Fushiko-tobuto, Japan. This height is estimated for 11 Sep 2015 11:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Sep 2015 11:00:00 Fushiko-tobuto Japan  0.5m
11 Sep 2015 12:00:00 Svetloye Japan  0.5m
11 Sep 2015 12:00:00 Nishi-wada Japan  0.5m
11 Sep 2015 12:00:00 Nemuro Japan  0.5m
11 Sep 2015 12:00:00 Tomoshiri Japan  0.5m
11 Sep 2015 11:00:00 Bekkai Japan  0.5m
11 Sep 2015 13:00:00 Nassafu Japan  0.4m
11 Sep 2015 13:00:00 Zeikomae Russia  0.4m
11 Sep 2015 11:00:00 Odaito Japan  0.4m
11 Sep 2015 13:00:00 Moshirikeshi Russia  0.4m
11 Sep 2015 13:00:00 Akiajiba Russia  0.4m
11 Sep 2015 16:00:00 Higashirucharu Russia  0.3m
11 Sep 2015 13:00:00 Pontokomoi Russia  0.3m
11 Sep 2015 13:00:00 Nishimae Russia  0.3m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 148)
Calculation based on advisory number 86 of 11 Sep 2015 00:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.