The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the
regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected
by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the
forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.
This report is for advisory number 16 of tropical cyclone MARTY-15 issued at 30 Sep 2015 15:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000219). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.
Current impact estimate:
- Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
- Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 1
- Maximum sustained wind speed: 130 km/h
- The tropical cyclone did not reach sufficient strength to cause significant storm surge or is not predicted to affect populated places.
Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Show forecast grid
View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 0)
Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 30 Sep 2015 03:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)
See full locations list (RSS)
The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction.
The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.
The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.
For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.