GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Green Tropical Cyclone alert in Cuba, Jamaica, Bahamas, United States for SANDY-12 from 22/10/2012 21:00 UTC to 30/10/2012 03:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone SANDY-12
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Green alert for storm surge impact in Jamaica

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 3 of tropical cyclone SANDY-12 issued at 23 Oct 2012 3:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 33263).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 19.9 million
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 2
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 167 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Old Harbor, Jamaica. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2012 20:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2012 20:00:00 Old Harbor Jamaica  0.7m
24 Oct 2012 19:00:00 Brazalitta Jamaica  0.6m
24 Oct 2012 21:00:00 Port Royal Jamaica  0.6m
24 Oct 2012 21:00:00 Kingston Jamaica  0.6m
24 Oct 2012 19:00:00 Mahoe Gardens Jamaica  0.5m
25 Oct 2012 16:00:00 Manzanillo Cuba  0.5m
26 Oct 2012 00:00:00 Duncan Town The Bahamas  0.5m
25 Oct 2012 16:00:00 Campechuela Cuba  0.4m
25 Oct 2012 16:00:00 Salvador Cuba  0.4m
25 Oct 2012 20:00:00 Palmacity Cuba  0.4m
26 Oct 2012 03:00:00 San Ramon Cuba  0.4m
26 Oct 2012 03:00:00 La Conchita Cuba  0.4m
25 Oct 2012 16:00:00 Pilon Cuba  0.3m
25 Oct 2012 19:00:00 Versailles Cuba  0.3m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 282)
Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 23 Oct 2012 03:00:00.
(Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.