Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NOKAEN-26 in Philippines from 14 Jan 2026 12:00 UTC to 20 Jan 2026 18:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NOKAEN-26

in Philippines

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID	TC 1001249
Name	NOKAEN-26
From - To	14 Jan - 20 Jan
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	93 km/h Tropical storm
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (17 Jan 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Philippines)

GDACS Score

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	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS JTWC	93 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF	94 km/h	0.7 m	539 mm	0.5
GFS	90 km/h	0.7 m	712 mm	0.5
ECMWF	72 km/h	1 m	421 mm	0.5

Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.

Virtual OSOCC

Meteo assessment

Satellite products

Analytical products

Philippines - Tropical storm ONE (ECHO 20 Jan 2026)Thu, 15 Jan 2026 10:02

On 14 January, a tropical depression named ONE (ADA for the Philippine authorities) was formed over the southern Philippines Sea and moved north-westwards. On 15 January at 3:00 UTC, its centre was located 420 km east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte province (northern Mindanao, southern Philippines) with estimated winds of 55 km/h with gusts up to 70 km/h.
ONE is forecast to strengthen as a tropical storm over the next few hours and move northwest, passing close to the eastern coast of Samar island and south-eastern Luzon with winds up to 83 km/h.
According to national authorities, due to its influence, 31 seaports have been affected, and some classes have been suspended in the Eastern Visayas region.
On 15-18 January, heavy rain and strong winds are expected over south-eastern and eastern Philippines, including Samar island, Leyte island and parts of north-eastern Mindanao.

Philippines - Tropical storm NOKAEN, update (ECHO 24 Jan 2026)Mon, 19 Jan 2026 10:20

On 18 January, tropical storm NOKAEN (named "Ada" in the Philippines) continued moving northward over the Philippine Sea, east of the coast of central Luzon (northern Philippines), with maximum sustained winds up to 74 km/h. On 19 January at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located offshore approximately 430 km east of the coast of northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reports, as of 19 January, two fatalities, two injured persons, 33 101 displaced people (of whom 16 322 are in 273 evacuation centres) and a total of 260 600 affected people across the Bicol and Caraga regions.
On the forecast track, NOKAEN is expected to continue moving north-east over the Philippine Sea and the Pacific Ocean, further weakening and dissipating on 22-23 January.
Over the next 48 hours, moderate rainfall is forecast over central and northern Philippines.

Philippines - Tropical storm NOKAEN, update (ECHO 25 Jan 2026)Tue, 20 Jan 2026 10:47

On 19 January, tropical storm NOKAEN (named "Ada" in the Philippines) continued moving eastward over the Philippine Sea and the Pacific Ocean, far from the coast of the Philippines, further weakening. On 20 January at 00.00 UTC, its centre was located offshore approximately 830 km east of the coast of northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), as of 20 January, the death toll stands at two fatalities. In addition, the NDRRMC also reports 20 593 still displaced people (of whom 5 457 are in 325 evacuation centres) and a total of more than 433 000 affected people across the Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Caraga regions.
On the forecast track, NOKAEN is expected to further weaken and dissipate on 21 January.
Over the next 24 hours, light rainfall is still forecast over central and northern Philippines.

Detailed event map. European Union, 2026. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Philippines: Flash update: No. 1 – Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN – 17 Januar.. 1/19/2026 1:44:00 PM.

OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA , Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN has intensified into a tropical storm while over the Philippine Sea east of Bicol Region. As of 0900H UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN has been located based on all availab

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Analytical products

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), WMO (1), INFORM (2), (1),

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