Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BUALOI-19 in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam from 19 Oct 2019 00:00 UTC to 25 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUALOI-19

in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone BUALOI-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID	TC 1000619
Name	BUALOI-19
From - To	19 Oct - 25 Oct
Exposed countries	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (23 Oct 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS JTWC	120 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF	252 km/h	0.8 m	475 mm	0.5
GFS	223 km/h	0.6 m	441 mm	0.5
ECMWF	162 km/h	0.8 m	590 mm	0.5

Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.

Virtual OSOCC

Meteo assessment

Satellite products

Analytical products

Japan, Northern Mariana Islands - Tropical Cyclone NEOGURI and BUALOI (ECHO 22 Oct 2019)Tue, 22 Oct 2019 13:08

Tropical Cyclone NEOGURI is moving close to Honshu Island, bringing heavy rain but weakening. On 22 October at 0.00 UTC, its centre was 83 km west of Hachijo Jima Island (Izu archipelago),and 300 km south-west of Tokyo City with maximum sustained winds of 83 km/h (tropical storm).
NEOGURI is forecast to pass near Hachijo Jima Island and to move offshore over the North Pacific Ocean before dissipating.
Tropical Cyclone BUALOI passed close to the Northern Mariana Islands between Anatahan and Sargan Islands, strengthening as it moves north-west towards Ogasawara Islands (Japan). On 22 October at 0.00, its centre was approximately 140 km south-east of Pagan Island (northern Mariana Islands), with maximum sustained winds of 213 km/h.
BUALOI will continue north approaching Ogasawara Islands on 23-24 October, bringing heavy rain and strong winds up to 222 km/h.
A red warning has been issued by Japan's Meteorological Agency (JMA) for heavy rain and flooding across Nagano and Tokyo Prefectures, including Ogasawara islands.

Japan - Tropical Cyclone BUALOI update (ECHO 23 Oct 2019)Wed, 23 Oct 2019 13:01

Tropical Cyclone BUALOI is moving north over the northern Philippine Sea, approaching Ogasawara Islands(south-eastern Japan) with maximum sustained winds of 222 km/h. On 23 October at 0.00 its centre was approximately 290 km south of the inhabited island of Iwo Jima.
BUALOI is expected to impact the Ogasawara Islands on 25-26 October. Thereafter, BUALOI is forecast to weaken, as it moves north-east over the northern Philippine Sea.
Advisories for high waves, strong winds and thunderstorms have been issued on 23 October for Ogasawara. Heavy rainfall is forecast over Ogasawara on 23-24 October, and over central Japan on 24-25 October.

Japan - Tropical Cyclone BUALOI update (ECHO 24 Oct 2019)Thu, 24 Oct 2019 13:06

After passing the southern Ogasawara Islands (south-eastern Japan), Tropical Cyclone BUALOI is moving east-northeast over the northern Philippine Sea, with maximum sustained winds of 176 km/h. On 24 October at 0.00, its centre was approximately 15 km south of Chichijima Island.
BUALOI will weaken as it moves north-east over the northern Philippine Sea, dissipating on 26 October.
The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued red warnings for storms and high waves. Heavy rain is forecast for most of Japan, including Greater Tokyo Area.

Japan - Tropical Cyclone BUALOI update (ECHO 25 Oct 2019)Fri, 25 Oct 2019 13:06

While Tropical Cyclone BUALOI is moving north-northeast over the North Pacific Ocean, heavy rain has been reported in many parts of central-northern Honshu and most of Hokkaido due to a low-pressure system in central and northern Japan.
Red alerts for floods and heavy rain have been issued for most of Honshu Island, including the Greater Tokyo Area previously affected by the passage of Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS.
Heavy rain and strong winds are forecast over the aforementioned area for 25-26 October.

Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Analytical products

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (38), (2), INFORM (2),

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