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Orange Tsunami and Earthquake alert in Indonesia

Orange Earthquake and Tsunami Alert in Indonesia

Summary

On 1/3/2009 7:43:54 PM UTC an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 and depth 35km has struck an sparsely populated area in the Irian Jaya Province (population: 1.7 million) in Indonesia. GDACS estimates the likelihood for need of international humanitarian intervention to be medium (Orange alert). It is likely that a tsunami was generated. The maximum tsunami wave height near the coast of will be 1.7m. Please refer to the GDACS tsunami report for more details. This earthquake can have a medium humanitarian impact since the affected region is sparsely populated and has medium resilience for natural disasters. The nearest populated places are [None]. It is a mountainous region with a maximum altitude of 2535 m. Humanitarian Impact   Population resilience   Tsunami probability   Landslide probability   Nuclear radiation probability   Caution: this information is based on risk models. Whether international humanitarian aid is needed must be decided by an expert. This report was automatically updated by a computer on: 1/3/2009 8:17:51 PM UTC (33 minutes after the event) Downloads: Word report, PDF report Explanation of alert calculation: Show The impact model combines magnitude (M), population within 100km (P) and vulnerability/resilience ECHO average score (V) using the formula: alertscore = max(M-4.5,0) * log10(max(P / 80000,0))^ 0.5 * max(V,0.5) ^ 1.5 / 3 The weighted product of magnitude (7.6), population (30171) and vulnerability (1.88) results in an alertscore of 0 Medium tsunami impact: wave height at coast expected to exceed 1.5m. The alertscore is set to 2. Then alert is Red if alertscore>2, Orange if alertscore>1 and Green if alertscore<=1. Tsunami wave height

Google map   Population map Population Density near epicenter (people/km2). Image area: 6x4 decimal degrees (approx. 650x450km2). Earthquake epicentre: best estimate    previous estimates:

Earthquake Event

Geological map Characteristics for this report Information source World Data Centre for Seismology, Denver (NEIC) Link to source event report (us2009bjbn) PAGER report (2009bjbn) Magnitude 7.6 M Depth 35 km Location Geographic coordinates (latitude/longitude): -0.5098, 132.7834 Indonesia , Irian Jaya Province (population: 1752571). Seismic region: Indonesia. The earthquake happened in Indonesia , Irian Jaya Province (population: 1752571). . The nearest populated places are [None]. It is a mountainous region with a maximum altitude of 2535 m. Time 1/3/2009 7:43:54 PM (UTC, Universal Standard Time) 1/4/2009 4:35:02 AM (Estimated local solar time) Sat, 1/3/2009 20:43 CET (Brussels, Paris, Rome) Sat, 1/3/2009 14:43 EST (New York, Washington) Sat, 1/3/2009 11:43 PST (San Francisco, Los Angeles) Sun, 1/4/2009 03:43 AWST (Australian Western Standard Time)

Previous reports for this earthquake. Earthquake report Tsunami report Event Date/Time Lat/Lon Magnitude Depth (km) Source Publication Date/Time Delay 50550 1/3/2009 7:43:55 PM UTC -0.784, 132.746 7.7 17 NOAA (at00101183) 1/3/2009 7:57:45 PM UTC 13min 50551 1/3/2009 7:43:59 PM UTC -0.7, 132.8 7.8 48 NOAA (at00101183) 1/3/2009 8:02:55 PM UTC 18min 50552 1193 (Max. wave at coast: 1.78m) 1/3/2009 7:43:54 PM UTC -0.5098, 132.7834 7.6 35 NEIC (us2009bjbn) 1/3/2009 8:17:51 PM UTC 33min 50553 1193 (Max. wave at coast: 1.78m) 1/3/2009 7:43:05 PM UTC -0.52, 132.81 7.7 35 EMSC_deleted 1/3/2009 8:22:31 PM UTC 39min 50563 1/3/2009 7:43:05 PM UTC -0.52, 132.81 7.7 35 EMSC 1/3/2009 9:02:56 PM UTC 79min

Earthquake Impact Details

Potentially affected People

The population in the area of this earthquake if 1 people/km². (Data source).

The earthquake occurred at 4h local time. At this time a day, more people are at home and therefore more vulnerable to collapsing residential buildings. During traffic hours, people can be affected by collapsing bridges and other road infrastructure.

Damage

The affected region has low level of urban area (0%) and a low level of cultivated area (1.9%). In urban areas more damage can be expected than in cultivated or natural areas. (Data source)

Resilience and Vulnerability

Resilience is the capacity of the population to cope with a hazard. Since much of investments in earthquake preparedness and available funds for quick response is related to household income, the GDP per capita can be used as a rough indicator of resilience.

Indonesia has a GDP per capita of 961 PPP$ (Parity Purchasing Power Dollar, about 1 Euro) and is therefore part of the medium level income countries. Therefore, the earthquake happened in an area of medium resilience.

Based on the combination of 9 indicators, ECHO attributes Indonesia a medium vulnerability.

ECHO Intervention Priority Ranking for Indonesia
Overall situation
Human Development
Human Poverty
Exposure to Major Disasters
Natural Disasters
Conflicts
Humanitarian effects of population movement
Refugees
Internally Displaced People
Health and Nutrition
Undernourishment
Mortality rates
Donor contributions
Official Development assistance
Source ECHO Key: Bad - Medium - Good - No data

Exposure

Both conditions for survival and conditions for delivering aid strongly depend on the current weather and temperature. The following graphs show the current and forecast weather.

Current weather conditions and forecasts at earthquake location (lat: -0.5098 - long: 132.7834) (Data source).

More detailed observations at closest weather station (Kebar): WeatherByWeb - NOAA

Probability of Secondary effects

Landslides: The maximum slope in the area of the earthquake is 48.128% and the maximum altitude is 2535 m. Since this is a medium slope, the risk of earthquake induced landslides is medium. Note, however, that the slope data is not reliable on a local scale, while landslides depend very much on local topography, soil and meteorological conditions. More...

Critical infrastructure

The following critical infrastructure is nearby and could be affected by the earthquake:

• Nuclear power plants: There are no nuclear facilities nearby the epicenter.
• Hydrodams: There are no hydrodam facilities nearby the epicenter.

The distance to nuclear installations is evaluated based on a 1999 UN dataset containing the location of nuclear plants in the world. If plants are near and the earthquake magnitude is above 6.5, the alert is set to orange. Note that the location of plants is approximate with errors of up to 100km.

Getting there and away

The nearest civilian airport (Kebar) is at 40km from the epicenter. Other airports are: Inanwatan (193km), Steenkool (195km), Merdey (134km), Ransiki (196km), Teminabuan (135km), Anggi (155km), Ayawasi (83km), Kambuaya (81km), Jefman (191km), Sorong Mainland (172km), Rendani (147km), Kebar (40km)

Ports nearby are: Steenkool (196km), Bira (186km), Sorong (176km), Manokwari (149km)

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.

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