Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for VANCE-14
in Mexico
31 Oct 2014 15 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone VANCE-14 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (05 Nov 16:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 138 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 185 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      138 km/h Current Max.

      Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 30 Oct 2014 09:00 130 No people No people
        Green 2 30 Oct 2014 15:00 138 No people No people
        Green 3 30 Oct 2014 21:00 130 No people No people Mexico
        Green 4 31 Oct 2014 03:00 130 No people No people Mexico
        Green 5 31 Oct 2014 09:00 130 No people No people Mexico
        Green 6 31 Oct 2014 15:00 138 No people No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          green
          		 1 10/30/2014 9:00:00 AM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11, -100.2
          green
          		 2 10/30/2014 3:00:00 PM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.5, -100.9
          green
          		 3 10/30/2014 9:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 11, -101
          green
          		 4 10/31/2014 3:00:00 AM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 10.8, -101.3
          green
          		 5 10/31/2014 9:00:00 AM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 10.5, -101
          green
          		 6 10/31/2014 3:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 10.1, -100.8
          green
          		 6 11/1/2014 Tropical storm 84 no people no people 9.7, -101.7
          green
          		 6 11/1/2014 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 93 no people no people 9.6, -103.2
          green
          		 6 11/2/2014 Tropical storm 101 no people no people 10.2, -105.2
          green
          		 6 11/2/2014 12:00:00 PM Category 1 121 no people no people 11.4, -107
          green
          		 6 11/3/2014 12:00:00 PM Category 1 138 no people no people 15, -109.3
          green
          		 6 11/4/2014 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 101 no people 1.1 million people 19.3, -107.9 Mexico
          green
          		 6 11/5/2014 12:00:00 PM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 23.5, -105 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Perihuete, Mexico. This height is estimated for 05 Nov 2014 16:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (8 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 05 Nov 2014 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Nov 2014 16:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
          05 Nov 2014 16:00 Dimas Mexico  0.2
          05 Nov 2014 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 12:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 15:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 11:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 11:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 11:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1