Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-15
in Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
11 Mar 2015 18 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BAVI-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (15 Mar 11:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 111 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 130 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 11 Mar 2015 12:00 121 No people No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 2 11 Mar 2015 18:00 111 No people No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 11 Mar 2015 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 7.2, 168.1
          GREEN
          		 2 11 Mar 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7.1, 167.4
          GREEN
          		 2 12 Mar 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 7.8, 165.4
          GREEN
          		 2 12 Mar 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 8.6, 162.9
          GREEN
          		 2 13 Mar 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 9.5, 160.1
          GREEN
          		 2 13 Mar 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 10.7, 156.9
          GREEN
          		 2 14 Mar 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 12.7, 151.1
          GREEN
          		 2 15 Mar 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 13.8, 145.9
          GREEN
          		 2 16 Mar 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, 140.8
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Camp Quezon, Guam. This height is estimated for 15 Mar 2015 11:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (36 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 22 of 16 Mar 2015 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Upi Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Asan Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Hagatna Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Sinajana Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Mongmong Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Yona Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Tamuning Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 11:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Agat Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Piti Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Talofofo Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 12:00 Ylig Guam  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 09:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 09:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 10:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          15 Mar 2015 10:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1