Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for DOLPHIN-15 in Guam from 09 May 2015 18:00 UTC to 19 May 2015 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DOLPHIN-15

in Guam

19 May 2015 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DOLPHIN-15 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Guam
Exposed population	170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (15 May 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 220000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	06 May 2015 18:00	175	30 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of
2	07 May 2015 00:00	175	30 thousand	30 thousand	Micronesia, Federated States of
3	07 May 2015 06:00	175	30 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of
4	07 May 2015 12:00	167	30 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of
5	07 May 2015 18:00	167	80 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of
6	08 May 2015 00:00	167	30 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of
7	08 May 2015 06:00	175	30 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of
8	08 May 2015 12:00	175	30 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of
9	08 May 2015 18:00	175	30 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of
10	09 May 2015 00:00	175	30 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of, Guam
11	09 May 2015 06:00	175	210 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of, Guam
12	09 May 2015 12:00	175	190 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of, Guam
13	09 May 2015 18:00	175	190 thousand	No people	Guam
14	10 May 2015 00:00	167	190 thousand	No people	Micronesia, Federated States of, Guam
15	10 May 2015 06:00	158	180 thousand	No people	Guam
16	10 May 2015 12:00	167	190 thousand	No people	Guam
17	10 May 2015 18:00	167	190 thousand	No people	Guam
18	11 May 2015 00:00	167	180 thousand	No people	Guam
19	11 May 2015 06:00	195	180 thousand	No people	Guam
20	11 May 2015 12:00	222	180 thousand	No people	Guam
21	11 May 2015 18:00	232	180 thousand	No people	Guam
22	12 May 2015 00:00	148	190 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
23	12 May 2015 06:00	148	190 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
24	12 May 2015 12:00	212	190 thousand	No people	Guam
25	12 May 2015 18:00	138	190 thousand	90 thousand	Guam
26	13 May 2015 00:00	167	190 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
27	13 May 2015 06:00	185	190 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
28	13 May 2015 12:00	204	270 thousand	180 thousand	Guam
29	13 May 2015 18:00	204	270 thousand	180 thousand	Guam
30	14 May 2015 00:00	195	270 thousand	180 thousand	Guam
31	14 May 2015 06:00	204	270 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
32	14 May 2015 12:00	222	270 thousand	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
33	14 May 2015 18:00	222	270 thousand	4 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
34	15 May 2015 00:00	222	270 thousand	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
35	15 May 2015 06:00	175	270 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
36	15 May 2015 12:00	212	270 thousand	170 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
37	15 May 2015 18:00	269	270 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
38	16 May 2015 00:00	249	270 thousand	170 thousand
39	16 May 2015 06:00	269	270 thousand	170 thousand
40	16 May 2015 12:00	269	270 thousand	170 thousand
41	16 May 2015 18:00	269	270 thousand	170 thousand
42	17 May 2015 00:00	259	270 thousand	170 thousand
43	17 May 2015 06:00	241	270 thousand	170 thousand
44	17 May 2015 12:00	232	270 thousand	170 thousand
45	17 May 2015 18:00	212	270 thousand	170 thousand
46	18 May 2015 00:00	204	270 thousand	170 thousand
47	18 May 2015 06:00	185	270 thousand	170 thousand
48	18 May 2015 12:00	167	270 thousand	170 thousand
49	18 May 2015 18:00	148	270 thousand	170 thousand
50	19 May 2015 00:00	138	270 thousand	170 thousand
51	19 May 2015 06:00	121	270 thousand	170 thousand
52	19 May 2015 12:00	111	270 thousand	170 thousand

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	06 May 2015 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	4.8, 159.3
2	07 May 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	3.9, 159.7
3	07 May 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	3.5, 160.1
4	07 May 2015 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	3.4, 160.6
5	07 May 2015 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	2.8, 161.4
6	08 May 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	3.5, 161.9
7	08 May 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	3.8, 162.1
8	08 May 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	3.8, 162.5
9	08 May 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	4, 162.7
10	09 May 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	4.5, 162.5	Micronesia, Federated States of
11	09 May 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	7700 people	4.8, 162.2	Micronesia, Federated States of
12	09 May 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	5.3, 162.3	Micronesia, Federated States of
13	09 May 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	5.6, 161.8
14	10 May 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	6.2, 160.4
15	10 May 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	7, 160
16	10 May 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	7.6, 160
17	10 May 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	8.4, 159.9
18	11 May 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	9.1, 159.6
19	11 May 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	9.8, 159.9
20	11 May 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	10.3, 159.2
21	11 May 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	10.2, 158.6
22	12 May 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	10.3, 158.4
23	12 May 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	10.2, 157.9
24	12 May 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	9.9, 157.2
25	12 May 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	9.8, 156.9
26	13 May 2015 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	10.1, 156.3
27	13 May 2015 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	10.3, 155.3
28	13 May 2015 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	10.6, 154.2
29	13 May 2015 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	10.9, 153.4
30	14 May 2015 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	11.4, 152.2
31	14 May 2015 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	11.9, 151.2
32	14 May 2015 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	12.5, 149.7
33	14 May 2015 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	12.8, 148.5
34	15 May 2015 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	260000 people	13.4, 147.2	Northern Mariana Islands
35	15 May 2015 06:00	Category 2	176	170000 people	260000 people	13.6, 145.5	Guam
36	15 May 2015 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	180000 people	14, 144.5	Guam
37	15 May 2015 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	14.8, 143.5
38	16 May 2015 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	15.2, 142.4
39	16 May 2015 06:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	15.8, 141.5
40	16 May 2015 12:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	16.5, 140.6
41	16 May 2015 18:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	17.2, 139.8
42	17 May 2015 00:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	17.9, 139.1
43	17 May 2015 06:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	18.7, 138.6
44	17 May 2015 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	19.4, 138.5
45	17 May 2015 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	20, 138.5
46	18 May 2015 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	20.9, 138.6
47	18 May 2015 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	21.7, 138.4
48	18 May 2015 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	22.5, 138.6
49	18 May 2015 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	23.6, 138.8
50	19 May 2015 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	24, 139.2
51	19 May 2015 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	24.6, 140
52	19 May 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	25.9, 141
52	20 May 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	29, 144.6
52	20 May 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	33.9, 149.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Northern Mariana Is.	43000 people
Guam	150000 people
Micronesia	6500 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Northern Mariana Is.	Northern Mariana Islands
Guam	Guam
Micronesia	Micronesia, Federated States of

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Saipan		Northern Mariana Islands	Capital	62000 people
Hag�t�a		Guam	Capital	1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Iwo To (Iwo Jima)	IWO	113	Mil.	Paved	Yes	8700
Nikko		18				0
Commonwealth Health Center		5				0
Saipan International	SPN	66	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8700
West Tinian	TIQ	82	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Dynasty		46				0
Rota I International	ROP	185	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Andersen AFB	UAM	191				0
A.B. Won Pat International	GUM	91				0
Kosrae	KSA	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5700

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Iwo Jima		Japan
Haha		Japan
Omura		Japan
Minami Lo		Japan
Muko		Japan
Saipan	MPSPN	Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian		Northern Mariana Islands
Rota		Northern Mariana Islands
Apra Harbor		Guam
Apra (Agana)	GUAPR	Guam
Port Lottin		Micronesia
Lele Harbor		Micronesia

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Gayinero, Guam. This height is estimated for 15 May 2015 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (43 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 52 of 19 May 2015 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 May 2015 08:00	Gayinero	Guam	0.5
	15 May 2015 08:00	Asatdas	Guam	0.5
	15 May 2015 08:00	Lupog	Guam	0.5
	15 May 2015 09:00	Harmon Village	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Oceanview	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Dededo	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	South Acres	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Ipapao	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Potts Junction	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Perez Acres	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Spring Hill Subdivision	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 09:00	Upi	Guam	0.4
	15 May 2015 10:00	Songsong	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	15 May 2015 10:00	Teteto	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	15 May 2015 08:00	Camp Quezon	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 08:00	Asbeco	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 08:00	Adacao	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Rota	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Sinapalo	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Asan	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Hagatna	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Sinajana	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Mongmong	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Yona	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Tamuning	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 09:00	Barrigada	Guam	0.3
	15 May 2015 10:00	Lockwood Terrace	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 10:00	Camp Bright	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 10:00	Piti	Guam	0.2
	19 May 2015 16:00	Omura	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 16:00	Ogigaura	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 16:00	Sakaiura	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 15:00	Oki	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 15:00	Hyogidaira	Japan	0.2
	19 May 2015 11:00	Ishinomura	Japan	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Agat	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Santa Rita	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Talofofo	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Ylig	Guam	0.2
	15 May 2015 09:00	Inarajan	Guam	0.1
	15 May 2015 10:00	Umatac	Guam	0.1
	15 May 2015 10:00	Merizo	Guam	0.1
	19 May 2015 09:00	Higashi	Japan	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.