Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CARLOS-15 in Mexico from 11 Jun 2015 15:00 UTC to 13 Jun 2015 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CARLOS-15

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CARLOS-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (17 Jun 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	138 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

138 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	10 Jun 2015 21:00	138	1.8 million	No people	Mexico
2	11 Jun 2015 03:00	148	1.1 million	No people	Mexico
3	11 Jun 2015 09:00	148	2 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	11 Jun 2015 15:00	138	No people	No people
5	11 Jun 2015 21:00	148	3 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	12 Jun 2015 03:00	138	50 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	12 Jun 2015 09:00	138	5 thousand	No people	Mexico
8	12 Jun 2015 15:00	130	280 thousand	No people	Mexico
9	12 Jun 2015 21:00	130	450 thousand	No people	Mexico
10	13 Jun 2015 03:00	130	1.1 million	No people	Mexico
11	13 Jun 2015 09:00	121	950 thousand	No people	Mexico
12	13 Jun 2015 15:00	138	720 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	10/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.4, -98.7
2	11/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.9, -99.7
3	11/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.1, -100.2
4	11/Jun/2015 15:00	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	13.6, -100.4
5	11/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	14.1, -100.3
6	12/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.5, -100.4
7	12/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, -100.8
8	12/Jun/2015 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, -100.7
9	12/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, -100.6
10	13/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.8, -100.1
11	13/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical storm	101	no people	no people	14.8, -100.2
12	13/Jun/2015 15:00	Category 1	121	no people	no people	14.9, -100.2
12	14/Jun/2015 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	15.2, -100.5
12	14/Jun/2015 12:00	Category 1	138	no people	no people	15.8, -101.3
12	15/Jun/2015 00:00	Category 1	138	no people	13000 people	16.3, -102.2	Mexico
12	15/Jun/2015 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	460000 people	16.9, -103.1	Mexico
12	16/Jun/2015 12:00	Category 1	121	no people	580000 people	18.6, -105	Mexico
12	17/Jun/2015 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	10000 people	20.5, -106.2	Mexico
12	18/Jun/2015 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	22.5, -107.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Cuitzmala, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Jun 2015 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 28 of 17 Jun 2015 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Jun 2015 12:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2015 08:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2015 11:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 16:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 08:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 14:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 09:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 10:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 23:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	18 Jun 2015 00:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	18 Jun 2015 01:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.