Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DANNY-15 in Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat from 18 Aug 2015 15:00 UTC to 21 Aug 2015 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANNY-15

in Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DANNY-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (24 Aug 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Dominica)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	148 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	18 Aug 2015 15:00	157	No people	No people
2	18 Aug 2015 21:00	157	No people	No people
3	19 Aug 2015 03:00	167	No people	No people
4	19 Aug 2015 09:00	167	No people	No people
5	19 Aug 2015 15:00	148	No people	No people	Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
6	19 Aug 2015 21:00	139	No people	No people	Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
7	20 Aug 2015 03:00	130	No people	No people	Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
8	20 Aug 2015 09:00	120	No people	No people	Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
9	20 Aug 2015 15:00	120	No people	400 thousand	Antigua and Barbuda, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Saint Kitts and Nevis
10	20 Aug 2015 21:00	139	No people	No people	Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
11	21 Aug 2015 03:00	139	No people	No people	Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
12	21 Aug 2015 09:00	148	No people	No people	Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Aug 2015 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10.6, -36.5
2	18 Aug 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	10.9, -37.5
3	19 Aug 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.2, -38.8
4	19 Aug 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.3, -40.2
5	19 Aug 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.2, -41.1
6	19 Aug 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.5, -42
7	20 Aug 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.1, -42.7
8	20 Aug 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.2, -43.7
9	20 Aug 2015 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	12.5, -44.8
10	20 Aug 2015 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	13, -45.7
11	21 Aug 2015 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	13.4, -46.6
12	21 Aug 2015 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	13.7, -47.4
12	21 Aug 2015 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	14.3, -48.8
12	22 Aug 2015 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.9, -50.8
12	22 Aug 2015 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	15.5, -53
12	23 Aug 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	66000 people	15.9, -55.3	Guadeloupe
12	24 Aug 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	3.3 million people	16.7, -60.5	Montserrat
12	25 Aug 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	10.4 million people	17.8, -65.7	Dominican Republic
12	26 Aug 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.5, -70.5	Dominican Republic

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Baie-Mahault, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 24 Aug 2015 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 24 Aug 2015 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Baie-Mahault	Guadeloupe	0.2
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Capesterre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Pointe-a-Pitre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Sainte-Anne	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Bas Vent	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Saint-Louis	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Grand-Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 12:00	Capesterre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Basse-Terre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Saint-Claude	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Le Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 12:00	Marigot	Dominica	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 15:00	La Pointe-Noire	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 15:00	Bouillante	Guadeloupe	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.