Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for GRACE-15 Off-shore from 05 Sep 2015 15:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2015 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-15

Off-shore

07 Sep 2015 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	102 km/h
Maximum storm surge	n.a.
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	n.a.	n.a.	0.5
Overall	102 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 200000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher
1	05 Sep 2015 15:00	93	No people	No people
2	05 Sep 2015 21:00	93	No people	No people
3	06 Sep 2015 03:00	93	No people	No people
4	06 Sep 2015 09:00	102	No people	No people
5	06 Sep 2015 15:00	102	No people	No people
6	06 Sep 2015 21:00	102	Few people	No people
7	07 Sep 2015 03:00	93	200 thousand	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	05 Sep 2015 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.3, -25.2
2	05 Sep 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.6, -26.4
3	06 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.8, -27.5
4	06 Sep 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	12.4, -28.5
5	06 Sep 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	12.9, -29.9
6	06 Sep 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.2, -31.2
7	07 Sep 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.3, -32.5
7	07 Sep 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.5, -34.7
7	08 Sep 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	13.8, -37.7
7	08 Sep 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14, -40.7
7	09 Sep 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.5, -44
7	10 Sep 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.3, -50.3
7	11 Sep 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	16.1, -56.5
7	12 Sep 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.2, -62	Montserrat

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Guadeloupe	73000 people
Antigua & Barbuda	88000 people
Montserrat	4700 people
St. Kitts & Nevis	19000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Guadeloupe	Guadeloupe
Antigua & Barbuda	Antigua and Barbuda
Montserrat	Montserrat
St. Kitts & Nevis	Saint Kitts and Nevis

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Moule		Guadeloupe	City	-
Saint John's		Antigua and Barbuda	Capital	22000 people
Plymouth	Saint Anthony	Montserrat	Capital	no people
Newcastle		St. Kitts and Nevis	City	<1000 people
Charlestown		St. Kitts and Nevis	City	1500 people
Basseterre		St. Kitts and Nevis	Capital	13000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
La Desirade Les Galets	DSD	unknown				0
V C Bird International	ANU	19	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9000
Barbuda Codrington	BBQ	unknown				0
W H Bramble (Abandoned)		12				0
Montserrat Blackburne	MNI	unknown				0
Newcastle	NEV	8	Civ.	Paved	No	4000
Golden Rock	SKB	52	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Port Louis		Guadeloupe
Parham Harbour		Antigua and Barbuda
Saint Johns	AGSJO	Antigua and Barbuda
Barbuda	AGBBQ	Antigua and Barbuda
Plymouth		Montserrat
Charlestown	KNNEV	Saint Kitts and Nevis
Basseterre	KNBAS	Saint Kitts and Nevis

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.