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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOAQUIN-15 in Bahamas from 28 Sep 2015 03:00 UTC to 30 Sep 2015 15:00 UTC
Automatic impact report for tropical cyclone JOAQUIN-15
alertimage

Current Green alert for wind impact in Bahamas as of 30 Sep 2015 15:00:00 UTC

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a low humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.

Current storm status

This report is for advisory number 42 of tropical cyclone JOAQUIN-15 issued at 08 Oct 2015 03:00 UTC (GDACS Event ID 1000220, Latest episode ID: 42, inserted at 30 Sep 2015 16:09 UTC ).

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0
  • Tropical Storm (maximum wind speed of 250 km/h)
  • Vulnerability of affected countries: Low

Impact of Extreme Wind

42  41  40  39  38  37  36  35  34  33  32  31  30  29  28  27  26  25  24  22  21  20  19  18  17  16  15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1  
Cloud map
Cloud map. Track and wind-buffer map. Green area: Area that can be affected by winds of more than 64 km/h (Tropical Storm strength). Orange area: Same, for winds of more than 92 km/h. Red area: Same, for winds above 120 km/h (Hurricane or Typhoon strength) (Source: JRC)
Cloud Map Zoomed on last forecast
Cloud Map Zoomed on last forecast. The zoomed map on the last track. (Source: JRC)

Affected population

Up to <1000 people people can be affected by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above. In addition, <1000 people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

Affected provinces

Country Region Province Population
Bahamas Bahamas 270000 people

Affected Populated Places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
San Salvador ZSA 3 Civ. Paved No 4500
Name LOCODE Country
Cockburn Town The Bahamas

See complete report

Event time line

The storm evolution is shown in the table below. Alert levels and population estimates are related to the area from a point to the next.

Advisory Alert color Date (UTC) Category Wind speed Wind gusts Population affected
by cyclone winds (>120km/h)
Location (lat, lon)
1
GREEN
28 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical depression 56 km/h (34 mph) 74 km/h (46 mph) no people 27.5, -68.7
2
GREEN
28 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical depression 56 km/h (34 mph) 74 km/h (46 mph) no people 27.3, -68.9
3
GREEN
28 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical depression 56 km/h (34 mph) 74 km/h (46 mph) no people 27.8, -69.6
4
GREEN
28 Sep 2015 21:00 Tropical depression 56 km/h (34 mph) 74 km/h (46 mph) no people 27.5, -70.2
5
GREEN
29 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 65 km/h (40 mph) 83 km/h (52 mph) no people 26.7, -70.4
6
GREEN
29 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 65 km/h (40 mph) 83 km/h (52 mph) no people 26.6, -70.6
7
GREEN
29 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 74 km/h (46 mph) 93 km/h (57 mph) no people 26.5, -70.8
8
GREEN
29 Sep 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 102 km/h (63 mph) 120 km/h (75 mph) no people 26, -71
9
GREEN
30 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 111 km/h (69 mph) 139 km/h (86 mph) no people 25.8, -71.7
10
GREEN
30 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 111 km/h (69 mph) 139 km/h (86 mph) no people 25.4, -72.5
11
GREEN
30 Sep 2015 15:00 Category 1 130 km/h (80 mph) 157 km/h (98 mph) no people 24.7, -72.6
11
GREEN
01 Oct 2015 00:00 Category 1 148 km/h (92 mph) 185 km/h (115 mph) <1000 people 24.3, -73.2
11
GREEN
01 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 2 157 km/h (98 mph) 194 km/h (120 mph) <1000 people 24.1, -74
11
GREEN
02 Oct 2015 00:00 Category 2 167 km/h (103 mph) 204 km/h (126 mph) <1000 people 24.4, -74.4
11
GREEN
02 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 2 176 km/h (109 mph) 213 km/h (132 mph) no people 25.3, -74.5
11
GREEN
03 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 3 185 km/h (115 mph) 222 km/h (138 mph) no people 28.5, -73.5
11
GREEN
04 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 2 167 km/h (103 mph) 204 km/h (126 mph) no people 34, -73
11
GREEN
05 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 1 139 km/h (86 mph) 167 km/h (103 mph) no people 38.5, -74

Previous advisories

For accessing reports of previous advisories, please click on the advisory number in the table below.

IDAlert ColorDate (UTC)CategoryMaximum sustained
wind speed (km/h)
Population affected
by cyclone winds (>120km/h)
Affected countries
42 08 Oct 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 102 5 thousand Bahamas
41 07 Oct 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 111 5 thousand Bahamas
40 07 Oct 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 111 5 thousand Bahamas
39 07 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 1 120 5 thousand Bahamas
38 07 Oct 2015 03:00 Category 1 130 5 thousand Bahamas
37 06 Oct 2015 21:00 Category 1 130 5 thousand Bahamas
36 06 Oct 2015 15:00 Category 1 130 5 thousand Bahamas
35 06 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 1 139 5 thousand Bahamas
34 06 Oct 2015 03:00 Category 1 139 5 thousand Bahamas
33 05 Oct 2015 21:00 Category 1 139 5 thousand Bahamas
32 05 Oct 2015 15:00 Category 1 139 5 thousand Bahamas
31 05 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 1 139 5 thousand Bahamas
30 05 Oct 2015 03:00 Category 1 139 5 thousand Bahamas
29 04 Oct 2015 21:00 Category 2 157 5 thousand Bahamas
28 04 Oct 2015 15:00 Category 2 176 5 thousand Bahamas
27 04 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 3 194 5 thousand Bahamas
26 04 Oct 2015 03:00 Category 4 213 5 thousand Bahamas
25 03 Oct 2015 21:00 Category 4 241 5 thousand Bahamas
24 03 Oct 2015 16:00 Category 4 250 5 thousand Bahamas
22 03 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 3 204 5 thousand Bahamas
21 03 Oct 2015 03:00 Category 3 204 5 thousand Bahamas
20 02 Oct 2015 21:00 Category 3 204 5 thousand Bahamas
19 02 Oct 2015 15:00 Category 4 213 5 thousand Bahamas
18 02 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 4 213 6 thousand Bahamas
17 02 Oct 2015 03:00 Category 4 222 5 thousand Bahamas
16 01 Oct 2015 21:00 Category 4 222 5 thousand Bahamas
15 01 Oct 2015 15:00 Category 4 222 4 thousand Bahamas
14 01 Oct 2015 09:00 Category 4 222 6 thousand Bahamas
13 01 Oct 2015 03:00 Category 4 222 1.2 million Bahamas, United States
12 30 Sep 2015 21:00 Category 3 185 1.6 million Bahamas, United States
11 30 Sep 2015 15:00 Category 3 185 Few people affected Bahamas
10 30 Sep 2015 09:00 Category 2 176 No people affected Bahamas, United States
9 30 Sep 2015 03:00 Category 2 167 No people affected Bahamas
8 29 Sep 2015 21:00 Category 1 148 No people affected Bahamas
7 29 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 111 No people affected  
6 29 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 102 No people affected  
5 29 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 102 No people affected United States
4 28 Sep 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 83 No people affected  
3 28 Sep 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 74 No people affected  
2 28 Sep 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 65 No people affected  
1 28 Sep 2015 03:00 Tropical depression 56 No people affected  

More information

Data resources

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.

About the data

The information on storm characteristics is taken from a web service provided by the Pacific Disaster Center, which processes the official advisory bulletins.

JRC calculates areas affected by high winds (wind buffers at 39, 58 and 74mph). This is done using the maximum reported wind radius (maximum of 4 quadrants) or, in case no wind radii are provided, through a regression analysis based on historical data. JRC also calculates the area affected by storm surge using HyFlux2 (hydrodynamic software).

Sources for data on critical infrastructure are: JRC NUMAS database (nuclear plants), ESRI (hydro dams, 1996), Global Discovery (airports, ports and cities).

Population data is from LandScan 2010.

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.