Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for PATRICIA-15
Off-shore
23 Oct 2015 15 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PATRICIA-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries
    Exposed population 410 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 333 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1 m (23 Oct 23:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability --

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 241 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 333 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      241 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 250000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 20 Oct 2015 15:00 157 No people No people Mexico
        Green 2 20 Oct 2015 21:00 157 No people No people Mexico
        Green 3 21 Oct 2015 03:00 157 No people No people Mexico
        Orange 4 21 Oct 2015 09:00 157 No people 1.4 million Mexico
        Orange 5 21 Oct 2015 15:00 148 No people 970 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 21 Oct 2015 21:00 157 No people 280 thousand Mexico
        Red 7 22 Oct 2015 03:00 185 No people 300 thousand Mexico
        Orange 8 22 Oct 2015 09:00 204 No people 490 thousand Mexico
        Red 9 22 Oct 2015 15:00 213 No people 600 thousand Mexico
        Red 10 22 Oct 2015 18:00 222 No people 580 thousand Mexico
        Red 11 22 Oct 2015 21:00 241 No people 600 thousand Mexico
        Red 12 23 Oct 2015 03:00 231 No people 290 thousand Mexico
        Red 13 23 Oct 2015 05:30 296 No people 280 thousand Mexico
        Red 14 23 Oct 2015 09:00 333 No people 180 thousand Mexico
        Red 15 23 Oct 2015 15:00 241 No people 250 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

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          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
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          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

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          Provinces

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          Populated places

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          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

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          Ports

          !No content available ..

          Dams

          !No content available ..

          Nuclear plants

          !No content available ..

          Nuclear power plants

          !No content available ..

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.