Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ULA-16 Off-shore from 30 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC to 07 Jan 2016 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ULA-16

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ULA-16 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (02 Jan 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 40000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	30 Dec 2015 06:00	139	---	No people	Tonga
2	30 Dec 2015 18:00	139	---	No people	Tonga
3	31 Dec 2015 06:00	148	---	No people	Fiji, Tonga
4	31 Dec 2015 18:00	204	---	No people	Tonga, American Samoa
5	01 Jan 2016 06:00	176	---	20 thousand	Tonga
6	01 Jan 2016 18:00	139	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
7	02 Jan 2016 06:00	157	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
8	02 Jan 2016 18:00	167	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
9	03 Jan 2016 06:00	157	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
10	03 Jan 2016 18:00	157	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
11	04 Jan 2016 06:00	130	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
12	04 Jan 2016 18:00	120	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
13	05 Jan 2016 06:00	102	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
14	05 Jan 2016 18:00	83	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
15	06 Jan 2016 06:00	65	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
16	06 Jan 2016 18:00	74	---	No people	Niue, Tonga
17	07 Jan 2016 06:00	93	---	No people	Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	30 Dec 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-12, -166.5
2	30 Dec 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-15.3, -167.1
3	31 Dec 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-15.5, -169
4	31 Dec 2015 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	30000 people	-16.1, -169.9	American Samoa
5	01 Jan 2016 06:00	Category 2	167	17000 people	29000 people	-17.4, -171.4	Tonga
6	01 Jan 2016 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	110000 people	-18.2, -174	Tonga
7	02 Jan 2016 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-18.5, -176.4
8	02 Jan 2016 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-19.2, -177.7
9	03 Jan 2016 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-20.5, -179
10	03 Jan 2016 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-21.7, 179.9
11	04 Jan 2016 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-22.3, 179.2
12	04 Jan 2016 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-22, 178.1
13	05 Jan 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-21.8, 177.6
14	05 Jan 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-21, 177.1
15	06 Jan 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-20.3, 176.3
16	06 Jan 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-19.5, 175.6
17	07 Jan 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-19, 175
17	07 Jan 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-18.8, 174.6
17	08 Jan 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-18.7, 174.1
17	08 Jan 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-18.7, 173.5
17	09 Jan 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	-19, 172.6	Vanuatu
17	10 Jan 2016 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-20.4, 170.4	Vanuatu

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Vanuatu	Vanuatu
Niue	Niue
Tonga	Tonga

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Alofi		Niue	Capital	<1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ongea, Fiji. This height is estimated for 02 Jan 2016 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (3 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 07 Jan 2016 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02 Jan 2016 22:00	Ongea	Fiji	0.2
	02 Jan 2016 23:00	Monothaki	Fiji	0.2
	01 Jan 2016 18:00	Neiafu	Tonga	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.