Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ABELA-16 Off-shore from 16 Jul 2016 06:00 UTC to 17 Jul 2016 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ABELA-16

Off-shore

17 Jul 2016 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ABELA-16 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	93 km/h
Maximum storm surge	n.a.
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	n.a.	n.a.	0.5
Overall	93 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 28000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Jul 2016 06:00	93	No people	No people
2	16 Jul 2016 18:00	83	No people	No people
3	17 Jul 2016 06:00	83	No people	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Jul 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-8.9, 69.8
2	16 Jul 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-9.9, 67.9
3	17 Jul 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-11.3, 65.9
3	17 Jul 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-12.6, 63.5
3	18 Jul 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.7, 61
3	18 Jul 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-14.7, 58.5
3	19 Jul 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	28000 people	-15.6, 55.9	Madagascar
3	20 Jul 2016 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-17.5, 51.3

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Sainte Marie	SMS	2	Civ.	Paved	No	3300

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Saint Mary Island		Madagascar
Port Sainte Marie		Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.