Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for TOKAGE-16 in Philippines from 24 Nov 2016 12:00 UTC to 28 Nov 2016 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TOKAGE-16

in Philippines

28 Nov 2016 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TOKAGE-16 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	111 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (27 Nov 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Philippines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	46 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	111 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 7.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	24 Nov 2016 12:00	102	21.7 million	No people	Philippines
2	24 Nov 2016 18:00	93	9.2 million	No people	Philippines
3	25 Nov 2016 00:00	102	8.6 million	No people	Philippines
4	25 Nov 2016 06:00	102	7.9 million	No people	Philippines
5	25 Nov 2016 12:00	102	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
6	25 Nov 2016 18:00	111	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
7	26 Nov 2016 00:00	111	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
8	26 Nov 2016 06:00	102	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
9	26 Nov 2016 12:00	102	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
10	26 Nov 2016 18:00	83	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
11	27 Nov 2016 00:00	83	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
12	27 Nov 2016 06:00	83	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
13	27 Nov 2016 12:00	83	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
14	27 Nov 2016 18:00	74	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
15	28 Nov 2016 00:00	56	7.8 million	No people	Philippines
16	28 Nov 2016 06:00	46	7.8 million	No people	Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	24 Nov 2016 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	15.5 million people	10.3, 125.8	Philippines
2	24 Nov 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	9 million people	11.2, 123.6	Philippines
3	25 Nov 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	6.5 million people	11.5, 122.5	Philippines
4	25 Nov 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.1 million people	11.4, 121.5	Philippines
5	25 Nov 2016 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	650000 people	11.8, 120.8	Philippines
6	25 Nov 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	87000 people	12.6, 119.7	Philippines
7	26 Nov 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	13.3, 118.6
8	26 Nov 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	13.9, 117.7
9	26 Nov 2016 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, 117.5
10	26 Nov 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.4, 117
11	27 Nov 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.9, 117.4
12	27 Nov 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16.2, 118
13	27 Nov 2016 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16.6, 118.2
14	27 Nov 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	17.3, 117.9
15	28 Nov 2016 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.5, 118.8
16	28 Nov 2016 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	16.5, 117.3
16	28 Nov 2016 18:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	15.6, 114.9
16	29 Nov 2016 06:00	Tropical depression	28	no people	no people	14.9, 113.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Southern Tagalog	Philippines
Bicol	Philippines
Western Visayas	Philippines
Central Visayas	Philippines

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Kalibo	Western Visayas	Philippines	City	56000 people
Roxas	Western Visayas	Philippines	City	100000 people
San Jose	Western Visayas	Philippines	City	23000 people
Iloilo	Iloilo City	Philippines	City	390000 people
Silay	Western Visayas	Philippines	City	83000 people
Talisay	Western Visayas	Philippines	City	76000 people
Bacolod	Western Visayas	Philippines	City	450000 people
Cadiz	Western Visayas	Philippines	City	130000 people
Fabrica	Western Visayas	Philippines	City	-
Bogo	Central Visayas	Philippines	City	23000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mamburao	MBO	4	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Busuanga	USU	45	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Coron	XCN	unknown				0
Culion	CUJ	unknown				0
San Jose	SJI	3	Civ.	Paved	No	6000
Wasig		5				0
Romblon	TBH	3	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Caticlan Malay	MPH	unknown				0
Cuyo	CYU	unknown				0
Kalib0	KLO	6	Civ.	Paved	No	6000
Roxas	RXS	3	Civ.	Paved	No	6200
Antique		7	Civ.	Paved	No	3400
Sicogon Island	ICO	unknown				0
Iloilo	ILO	7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mamburao		Philippines
Sablayan		Philippines
Basuanga		Philippines
Culion	PHCUJ	Philippines
Coron		Philippines
Caminawit		Philippines
Semirara Island		Philippines
Pandan		Philippines
Cuyo		Philippines
Port Capiz		Philippines
San Jose de Buenavista	PHSJI	Philippines
Cartagena / Iloilo	PHCRT	Philippines
Silay		Philippines
Bacolod	PHBCD	Philippines
Cadiz		Philippines
Santa Fe		Philippines
Bogo		Philippines
Tuburan		Philippines
Borbon		Philippines

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Abucay, Philippines. This height is estimated for 27 Nov 2016 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (85 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 27 Nov 2016 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	27 Nov 2016 01:00	Abucay	Philippines	0.2
	27 Nov 2016 03:00	Hermosa	Philippines	0.2
	27 Nov 2016 03:00	Orani	Philippines	0.2
	27 Nov 2016 03:00	Samal	Philippines	0.2
	27 Nov 2016 03:00	Limay	Philippines	0.2
	27 Nov 2016 03:00	Pamarauan	Philippines	0.2
	26 Nov 2016 21:00	Balanga	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 03:00	Caloocan	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Quezon	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Damipac	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Ugnisan	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Bonongan	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Calauit	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Carigmalan	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Culion	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Decalachao	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 01:00	Pilar	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 19:00	Meycauayan	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 19:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 19:00	Tinajeros	Philippines	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 16:00	Xianmai	China	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Busuanga	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Salvacion	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Bogtong	Philippines	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 14:00	Jinhe	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 14:00	Wai-lo	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Houhu	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Huangwu	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Nayan	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Doulongcun	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Bengtang	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Houhai	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 14:00	Shaoyao	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 14:00	Xingyou	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 18:00	Huangpo	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 18:00	Chiu-wu-ch'uan	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 14:00	Meilu	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 14:00	Hai-lu	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 14:00	Longtang	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 16:00	Taiping	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 16:00	Longshe	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 16:00	Dongjian	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 16:00	Dongli	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Tung-li	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Dongshan	China	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Batang	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Concepcion	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Kiwit	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 03:00	Orion	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 04:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 04:00	Binakayan	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 04:00	Cavite	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 04:00	Imus	Philippines	0.1
	27 Nov 2016 19:00	Manila	Philippines	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Lo Tik Wan	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Lo So Shing	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Pok Fu Lam	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Wa Fu Estate	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Kennedy Town	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Aberdeen	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Won Hang	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Tain Sha Tsui	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Central	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Wan Chai	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Chung Hom Kok	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	North Point	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Chek Chue	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Tai Tam	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Stanley	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	San Wan Ho Shau	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	A Kung Ngam	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Chai Wan	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Hok Tsui Wan	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Chik Sha	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Tei Tong Tsui	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 07:00	Tai Wan Tau	Hong Kong (China)	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Baisha	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 14:00	Dianbai	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Qianshan	China	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Manolib	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2016 19:00	Calumpang	Philippines	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 11:00	Shadi	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 11:00	Dalangwan	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 15:00	Badongxu	China	0.1
	28 Nov 2016 14:00	Lengzilin	China	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.