Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CARLOTTA-18 in Mexico from 14 Jun 2018 21:00 UTC to 19 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

19 Jun 2018 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CARLOTTA-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	102 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (17 Jun 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	37 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	102 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	18	19 Jun 2018 00:00	37	1.4 million	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	14 Jun 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.3, -100
2	15 Jun 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.3, -100.2
3	15 Jun 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.3, -100.2
4	15 Jun 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.7, -99.8
5	15 Jun 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	380000 people	16, -99.4	Mexico
6	16 Jun 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	64000 people	15.9, -99.3	Mexico
7	16 Jun 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	95000 people	15.8, -99.5	Mexico
8	16 Jun 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.3 million people	15.9, -99.2	Mexico
9	16 Jun 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.4 million people	16, -99.2	Mexico
10	17 Jun 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.4 million people	16.4, -99.5	Mexico
11	17 Jun 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	670000 people	16.8, -100.4	Mexico
12	17 Jun 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	380000 people	17.1, -101.1	Mexico
13	17 Jun 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	17, -101.7	Mexico
14	18 Jun 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	17.1, -102	Mexico
15	18 Jun 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	17.5, -102.4	Mexico
16	18 Jun 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	17.7, -103	Mexico
17	18 Jun 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	18, -103.3	Mexico
18	19 Jun 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	18.1, -103.5	Mexico
18	19 Jun 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	18.4, -104	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Guerrero	Mexico
Oaxaca	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Petatlán	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people
Tecpan	Guerrero	Mexico	City	14000 people
Atoyac	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people
Acapulco	Guerrero	Mexico	Major city	640000 people
San Marcos	Guerrero	Mexico	City	12000 people
Ayutla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	9900 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Pie de la Cuesta		6				0
Alvarez International	ACA	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Acapulco	MXACA	Mexico
Puerto Marques		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	El Guineo	Nexpa	1985

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Acapulco, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Jun 2018 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 17 Jun 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Jun 2018 05:00	Acapulco	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 07:00	El Papayo	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 11:00	Nuxco	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 13:00	Calvario	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 13:00	Coyuquillas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 00:00	Mauricio Gutierrez	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 03:00	El Marques	Mexico	0.1
	18 Jun 2018 05:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 22:00	Copala	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 21:00	Marquelia	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 19:00	Zihuatanejo	Mexico	0.1