Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for TRAMI-18 in Japan from 20 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC to 24 Sep 2018 06:00 UTC

24 Sep 2018 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TRAMI-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Japan
Exposed population	92.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (28 Sep 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Japan)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	222 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

222 km/h Current Max.

Up to 100000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	20 Sep 2018 18:00	241	150 thousand	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
2	21 Sep 2018 00:00	259	No people	No people
3	21 Sep 2018 06:00	250	No people	No people
4	21 Sep 2018 12:00	250	No people	No people
5	21 Sep 2018 18:00	241	No people	No people
6	22 Sep 2018 00:00	250	No people	No people
7	22 Sep 2018 06:00	250	No people	No people
8	22 Sep 2018 12:00	250	10 thousand	No people	Japan
9	22 Sep 2018 18:00	259	270 thousand	No people	Japan, Philippines, China
10	23 Sep 2018 00:00	259	4.6 million	No people	Japan, Philippines, China
11	23 Sep 2018 06:00	259	23.2 million	No people	Japan, Philippines, China
12	23 Sep 2018 12:00	269	23.4 million	No people	Japan, Philippines, China
13	23 Sep 2018 18:00	231	25 million	100 thousand	Japan
14	24 Sep 2018 00:00	222	35.4 million	120 thousand	Japan, China
15	24 Sep 2018 06:00	222	19 million	100 thousand	Japan

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	20 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	150000 people	13.8, 145.1	Northern Mariana Islands
2	21 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.6, 144
3	21 Sep 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.1, 143.4
4	21 Sep 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, 142.5
5	21 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16, 141.3
6	22 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16.6, 140.4
7	22 Sep 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16.5, 139
8	22 Sep 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.9, 137.5
9	22 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	17, 135.9
10	23 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	16.9, 135.1
11	23 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	17.3, 134.3
12	23 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	17.5, 133.2
13	23 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	18, 132.1
14	24 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	18.4, 131.1
15	24 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	18.9, 130.4
15	24 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	19.5, 129.3
15	25 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	19.8, 128.9
15	25 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	20.1, 128.7
15	26 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	20.7, 128.4
15	27 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 4	241	no people	100000 people	21.4, 127.9	Japan
15	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 4	222	100000 people	19.1 million people	22.6, 126.2	Japan
15	29 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	24.8, 124	Japan

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Japan

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Okinawa	Japan

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ishigaki	Okinawa	Japan	City	45000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Hirara	MMY	45	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Shimojishima	SHI	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
		9				0
Ishigaki	ISG	26	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Hateruma	HTR	unknown				0
Iriomote Jima		12				0
Yonaguni	OGN	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Myako Island		Japan
Hirara		Japan
Ishigaki		Japan
Ishigaki Island		Japan
Irionote Island		Japan

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Sokobaru	Sokobaru	Sokobarugawa	1992
Maezato	Maezato	Miyaragawa	1982
Nagura	Nagura	Naguragawa	1996

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in San Shah, China. This height is estimated for 28 Sep 2018 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (13 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 24 Sep 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	San Shah	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Guhuai	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Chiang-t'ien	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Chang-chiang	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Chin-feng	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Wuhang	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Guanjing	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Qingfeng	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Pingtan	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Houtian	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Langqi	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Tantou	China	0.1
	28 Sep 2018 06:00	Yunlong	China	0.1