Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSA-18
in Mexico
02 Oct 2018 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ROSA-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 241 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (02 Oct 03:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 56 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 241 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      56 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 120000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 30 02 Oct 2018 12:00 56 120 thousand No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 25 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.4, -106.9
          GREEN
          		 2 25 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.6, -107.7
          GREEN
          		 3 25 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, -108.5
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 15, -109.3
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 15.3, -109.9
          GREEN
          		 6 26 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.9, -110.9
          GREEN
          		 7 26 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.4, -111.7
          GREEN
          		 8 27 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 no people <1000 people 16.8, -112.6
          GREEN
          		 9 27 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people <1000 people 17.1, -113.6
          GREEN
          		 10 27 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people 17.3, -115
          GREEN
          		 11 27 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 194 no people <1000 people 17, -115.5
          GREEN
          		 12 28 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 16.9, -116.4
          GREEN
          		 13 28 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 16.9, -117.1
          GREEN
          		 14 28 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 17, -117.4
          GREEN
          		 15 28 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 17.4, -117.7
          GREEN
          		 16 29 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 18, -117.9
          GREEN
          		 17 29 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 18.8, -118.1
          GREEN
          		 18 29 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 20, -118.4
          GREEN
          		 19 29 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 20.9, -118.7
          GREEN
          		 20 30 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 21.9, -118.9
          GREEN
          		 21 30 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 22.8, -118.9
          GREEN
          		 22 30 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 23.9, -118.8
          GREEN
          		 23 30 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 24.7, -118.4
          GREEN
          		 24 01 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people <1000 people 25.6, -117.9 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 25 01 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 2900 people 26.3, -117.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 26 01 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 54000 people 27.1, -116.7 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 27 01 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 220000 people 27.8, -116.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 28 02 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 370000 people 28.3, -115.7 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 29 02 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 28.9, -115.1 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 30 02 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 29.3, -114.4 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 30 03 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 32, -113.1 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Baja California Mexico
          Baja California Sur Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Isla Natividad Baja California Sur Mexico City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Rancho Santa Ynes 671 0
          Rancho Santa Ynez 610 0
          Bahia de los Angeles North BHL 5 0
          Guerrero Negro GUB 18 0
          Guerrero Negro 18 0
          Isla Cedros 30 0
          Bahia Tortugas 40 0
          San Quintin SNQ unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Prt Venustiano Carranza Mexico
          Morro Redondo MXMRE Mexico
          Puerto San Bartolome Mexico
          San Quintin Mexico
          Guadalupe Island Mexico
          Clarion Island Mexico
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Santa Catarina, Mexico. This height is estimated for 02 Oct 2018 03:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (55 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 26 of 01 Oct 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          02 Oct 2018 03:00 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.5
          01 Oct 2018 14:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.4
          01 Oct 2018 14:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.4
          02 Oct 2018 14:00 La Choya Mexico  0.3
          01 Oct 2018 14:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.3
          01 Oct 2018 18:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.3
          01 Oct 2018 15:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.3
          01 Oct 2018 18:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.3
          01 Oct 2018 20:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.3
          01 Oct 2018 15:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 15:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 18:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 13:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 13:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 20:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 14:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 15:00 Molino Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 15:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 22:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 San Jose Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 13:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 20:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 20:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
          02 Oct 2018 03:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 La Florida Mexico  0.2
          02 Oct 2018 00:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 06:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
          02 Oct 2018 04:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
          02 Oct 2018 01:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 14:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 El Barril Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 23:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 16:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 15:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 15:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
          02 Oct 2018 01:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 22:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
          01 Oct 2018 17:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1