Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (22 Jan 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

93 km/h Current

Up to 7.8 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 93 10.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
Green 4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 93 7.9 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
GREEN
2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 880000 people no people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
GREEN
3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 3.5 million people no people -22.2, 38.9 Mozambique
GREEN
4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 8600 people no people -21.7, 39.1 Mozambique
GREEN
4 21 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 1.5 million people no people -20.2, 38.7 Mozambique
GREEN
4 21 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 2.8 million people no people -18.8, 37.9 Mozambique
GREEN
4 22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 5.3 million people no people -17.8, 37.3 Mozambique
GREEN
4 22 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -16.9, 36.7 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Madagascar
Malawi

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Inhambane Mozambique 1.3 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people
Toliara Madagascar 1.8 million people
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Manica Mozambique 870000 people
Tete Mozambique 1.1 million people
Southern Malawi 5.2 million people
Niassa Mozambique 700000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Morombe Toliara Madagascar City - 441 km
Maxixe Mozambique City 110000 people 455 km
Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City - 459 km
Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 180000 people 483 km
Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people 490 km
Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city - 504 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 393 km
Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200 442 km
Chinde INE unknown 0 443 km
Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 449 km
Luabo LBM unknown 0 469 km
Vila Franca Do Save 30 0 474 km
Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500 479 km
Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800 485 km
Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 486 km
Pebane PEB unknown 0 502 km
Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500 511 km
Bajone BJN unknown 0 514 km
Nsanje 61 Civ. Unpaved No 3200 666 km
Alto Molocue AME unknown 0 686 km
Gurue VJQ unknown 0 721 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Bazaruto Island Mozambique 373 km
Vilanculas Mozambique 393 km
Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique 416 km
Nova Mambone Mozambique 424 km
Morombe MGMXM Madagascar 442 km
Chinde MZINE Mozambique 443 km
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique 444 km
Inhambane MZINH Mozambique 451 km
Manombo MGMOB Madagascar 472 km
Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique 479 km
Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique 481 km
Antongo Madagascar 488 km
Beira MZBEW Mozambique 491 km
Pebane MZPEB Mozambique 501 km
Toliara MGTLE Madagascar 504 km
Rio Moebase Mozambique 513 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Chamba, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2019 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (101 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 20 Jan 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Beira Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Amado Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 05:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 04:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 04:00 Barra Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 07:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 04:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 04:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 21:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 07:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Tama Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 05:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 07:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 05:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 05:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2019 08:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 12:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2019 05:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 04:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 07:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2019 05:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 23:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Afo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2019 07:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 17:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 02:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 21:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2019 07:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 02:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 03:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1