Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DESMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (22 Jan 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 65 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

65 km/h Current

Up to 5 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 102 7.5 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 93 5.6 million No people Mozambique, Malawi
Green 3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 93 10.3 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
Green 4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 93 7.9 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi
Green 5 21 Jan 2019 00:00 65 5 million No people Mozambique, Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23.7, 38.4
GREEN
2 20 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 880000 people no people -22.9, 38.8 Mozambique
GREEN
3 20 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 3.5 million people no people -22.2, 38.9 Mozambique
GREEN
4 20 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 83 8600 people no people -21.7, 39.1 Mozambique
GREEN
5 21 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 680000 people no people -20.9, 38.6 Mozambique
GREEN
5 21 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 1.7 million people no people -19.3, 37.8 Mozambique
GREEN
5 22 Jan 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 2.4 million people no people -18.2, 37.4 Mozambique
GREEN
5 22 Jan 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -17.3, 37.3 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Inhambane Mozambique 1.3 million people
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people
Manica Mozambique 870000 people
Toliara Madagascar 1.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Quelimane Zambezia Mozambique City 180000 people 380 km
Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people 411 km
Maxixe Mozambique City 110000 people 470 km
Morombe Toliara Madagascar City - 503 km
Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City - 513 km
Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city - 589 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Chinde INE unknown 0 342 km
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 362 km
Luabo LBM unknown 0 368 km
Quelimane UEL 11 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 383 km
Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800 404 km
Pebane PEB unknown 0 406 km
Bajone BJN unknown 0 417 km
Vila Franca Do Save 30 0 421 km
Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 465 km
Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200 504 km
Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500 540 km
Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500 596 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Bazaruto Island Mozambique 333 km
Chinde MZINE Mozambique 342 km
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique 343 km
Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique 362 km
Vilanculas Mozambique 362 km
Nova Mambone Mozambique 366 km
Porto Belo MZPBE Mozambique 377 km
Porto de Quelimane MZUEL Mozambique 379 km
Pebane MZPEB Mozambique 405 km
Beira MZBEW Mozambique 411 km
Inhambane MZINH Mozambique 467 km
Morombe MGMXM Madagascar 503 km
Antongo Madagascar 536 km
Manombo MGMOB Madagascar 553 km
Toliara MGTLE Madagascar 589 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Chamba, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2019 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (121 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 21 Jan 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Beira Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Amado Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Barra Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Tama Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2019 23:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 04:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 07:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2019 02:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2019 09:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 23:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 07:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Afo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2019 05:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2019 18:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2019 01:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 11:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 18:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 17:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 08:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 14:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 06:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 05:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 06:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2019 00:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 19:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 13:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 10:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 21:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 02:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 05:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 19:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 20:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 03:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2019 04:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2019 14:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1