Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for CARLOTTA-12 in Mexico from 14 Jun 2012 09:00 UTC to 17 Jun 2012 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for CARLOTTA-12

in Mexico

17 Jun 2012 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CARLOTTA-12 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2012-000104-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	175 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (16 Jun 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	37 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	175 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	14 Jun 2012 03:00	121	No people	No people	Mexico
2	14 Jun 2012 09:00	130	No people	No people	Mexico
3	14 Jun 2012 15:00	148	No people	No people	Mexico
4	14 Jun 2012 21:00	148	No people	110 thousand	Mexico
5	15 Jun 2012 03:00	148	No people	5 thousand	Mexico
6	15 Jun 2012 09:00	148	No people	2 thousand	Mexico
7	15 Jun 2012 15:00	158	No people	340 thousand	Mexico
8	15 Jun 2012 21:00	175	No people	410 thousand	Mexico
9	16 Jun 2012 03:00	148	No people	440 thousand	Mexico
10	16 Jun 2012 09:00	121	No people	960 thousand	Mexico
11	16 Jun 2012 15:00	56	No people	1.3 million
12	16 Jun 2012 21:00	47	No people	1.3 million
13	17 Jun 2012 03:00	37	No people	1.3 million

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	6/14/2012 3:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.4, -92.4
2	6/14/2012 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	10.3, -93.3
3	6/14/2012 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	10.9, -93.6
4	6/14/2012 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	11.8, -94.2
5	6/15/2012 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	101	no people	no people	12.5, -94.7
6	6/15/2012 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	13.2, -95.3
7	6/15/2012 3:00:00 PM	Category 1	130	no people	310000 people	14, -96	Mexico
8	6/15/2012 9:00:00 PM	Category 2	167	180000 people	1.8 million people	14.8, -96.3	Mexico
9	6/16/2012 3:00:00 AM	Category 1	148	670000 people	3.1 million people	15.9, -97.2	Mexico
10	6/16/2012 9:00:00 AM	Category 1	121	960000 people	3 million people	16.6, -98.4	Mexico
11	6/16/2012 3:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	56	330000 people	890000 people	17.5, -99.5	Mexico
12	6/16/2012 9:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	47	88000 people	670000 people	17.9, -99.8	Mexico
13	6/17/2012 3:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	37	130000 people	370000 people	18.1, -100.3	Mexico
13	6/17/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	18.2, -100.9	Mexico

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Oaxaca
Mexico	Puebla
Mexico	Guerrero

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Chilpancingo	Guerrero	Mexico	Major city	160000 people
Acapulco	Guerrero	Mexico	Major city	640000 people
Oaxaca	Oaxaca	Mexico	Major city	260000 people
Tixtla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	21000 people
Asunción Nochixtlán	Oaxaca	Mexico	City	9800 people
Manzintla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	-
Tlaxiaco	Oaxaca	Mexico	City	15000 people
Ayutla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	9900 people
San Marcos	Guerrero	Mexico	City	12000 people
Juchatengo	Oaxaca	Mexico	City	-
Jamiltepec	Oaxaca	Mexico	City	9800 people
Zimatlán	Oaxaca	Mexico	City	9700 people
Ejutla	Oaxaca	Mexico	City	-
Miahuatlan	Oaxaca	Mexico	City	17000 people
Pochutla	Oaxaca	Mexico	City	13000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Puerto Escondido, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Jun 2012 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (51 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 16 Jun 2012 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Jun 2012 03:00	Puerto Escondido	Mexico	0.6
	16 Jun 2012 02:00	Chagues	Mexico	0.5
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	La Redonda	Mexico	0.4
	16 Jun 2012 02:00	Tlachicon	Mexico	0.4
	16 Jun 2012 03:00	Paso Hondo	Mexico	0.4
	16 Jun 2012 05:00	Bajos de Chila	Mexico	0.4
	16 Jun 2012 07:00	La Tuza	Mexico	0.3
	16 Jun 2012 08:00	Pie Cerro	Mexico	0.3
	15 Jun 2012 22:00	Lagarto	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Bajo de Arenal	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Costa Rica	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 01:00	Loma Larga	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 01:00	Puerto Angel	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 02:00	Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 10:00	Tierra Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 13:00	Marquelia	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 13:00	Copala	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Chicapa		0.2
	15 Jun 2012 22:00	Salina Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Ayutla	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Mirador	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 00:00	Tangolunda	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 03:00	Coatzacoalcos	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 03:00	Las Barrillas	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 15:00	Mauricio Gutierrez	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 16:00	Tenixtepec	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 16:00	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 16:00	Boqueron	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Laja	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	La Mata	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Tamiahua	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Cabo Rojito	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	El Tular	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Buenavista	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Arista	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 17:00	San Dionisio del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 18:00	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 18:00	La Majada	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 18:00	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 18:00	Santa Maria Xandani	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 19:00	San Pedro	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 19:00	Monte de Oro	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2012 23:00	Francisco I. Madero	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2012 02:00	El Marques	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.