Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GARRY-13
in Cook Islands
27 Jan 2013 06 UTC
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  • JRC
Impact Single TC
    Impact based on all weather systems in the area

    Impact

      Tropical Cyclone GARRY-13 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

      Meteorological source GDACS
      Exposed countries Cook Islands
      Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
      Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
      Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (26 Jan 06:00 UTC)
      Vulnerability Medium (Cook Is.)

      GDACS Score

      GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
      For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
        Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
      Current 64 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
      Overall 158 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

      Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

      TOP

      Wind

        64 km/h Current Max.

        Up to 18000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

        Impact Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
          Tropical Storm or higher          		 Population in
          Cat 1. or higher          		 Countries
          Green 1 20 Jan 2013 12:00 138 No people No people American Samoa, Cook Islands
          Green 2 20 Jan 2013 18:00 138 No people Few people Cook Islands
          Green 3 21 Jan 2013 00:00 138 No people No people
          Green 4 21 Jan 2013 06:00 158 No people No people
          Green 5 21 Jan 2013 18:00 138 No people No people
          Green 6 22 Jan 2013 06:00 121 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 7 22 Jan 2013 18:00 121 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 8 23 Jan 2013 06:00 121 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 9 23 Jan 2013 18:00 84 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 10 24 Jan 2013 06:00 121 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 11 24 Jan 2013 18:00 138 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 12 25 Jan 2013 06:00 158 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 13 25 Jan 2013 18:00 121 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 14 26 Jan 2013 06:00 101 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 15 26 Jan 2013 18:00 84 No people No people Cook Islands
          Green 16 27 Jan 2013 06:00 64 No people No people

          Bulletin Timeline

            Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
            (SSHS)             		Max winds
            (km/h)             		Population in
            Cat.1 or higher             		Population in
            Tropical Storm
            or higher             		Location (lat, lon) Countries
            green
            		 1 1/20/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people -12.8, -176.8 Wallis and Futuna
            green
            		 2 1/20/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people -12.6, -175.7 Wallis and Futuna
            green
            		 3 1/21/2013 Tropical storm 64 no people no people -11.5, -174.3
            green
            		 4 1/21/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 64 no people no people -11.4, -172.3
            green
            		 5 1/21/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 no people no people -11.9, -170.8
            green
            		 6 1/22/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 84 no people no people -13.2, -169.8
            green
            		 7 1/22/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 93 no people no people -13.1, -169.2
            green
            		 8 1/23/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 84 no people no people -13.8, -168.2
            green
            		 9 1/23/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.4, -167.2
            green
            		 10 1/24/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 111 no people no people -14, -164.9
            green
            		 11 1/24/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 1 138 no people no people -14.9, -163.1
            green
            		 12 1/25/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 2 158 no people 2300 people -16.2, -160.7 Cook Islands
            green
            		 13 1/25/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 1 121 no people 3000 people -16.7, -160.3 Cook Islands
            green
            		 14 1/26/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 101 no people 18000 people -18.7, -159.7 Cook Islands
            green
            		 15 1/26/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 84 no people 16000 people -21, -159 Cook Islands
            green
            		 16 1/27/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 64 no people no people -23.5, -158.2
            green
            		 16 1/27/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical depression 56 no people no people -25.5, -156.2
            **
            Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
            Actual track of the current bulletin
            The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
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            Exposed population - AoIs

            Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

            Provinces

            Country Region Province
            Cook Islands Cook Is.

            Populated places

            Name Region Province Country City class Population
            Avarua Cook Islands Capital 13000 people

            Critical infrastructure

            Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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            Rainfall

            Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

            ...

            TOP

            StormSurge

            0.2 m

            The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Arutunga, Cook Islands. This height is estimated for 26 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC .

            The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

            Locations affected by Storm surge (8 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 26 Jan 2013 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

            Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
            26 Jan 2013 06:00 Arutunga Cook Islands  0.2
            26 Jan 2013 06:00 Tautu Cook Islands  0.2
            21 Jan 2013 13:00 Etena American Samoa  0.1
            26 Jan 2013 14:00 Tengatangi Cook Islands  0.1
            26 Jan 2013 17:00 Avarua Cook Islands  0.1
            26 Jan 2013 17:00 Muri Cook Islands  0.1
            27 Jan 2013 00:00 Oneroa Cook Islands  0.1
            27 Jan 2013 00:00 Ivirua Cook Islands  0.1