Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANNY-15
in Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
24 Aug 2015 09 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone DANNY-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (24 Aug 13:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Dominica)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 65 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      65 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 580000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 18 Aug 2015 15:00 157 No people No people
        Green 2 18 Aug 2015 21:00 157 No people No people
        Green 3 19 Aug 2015 03:00 167 No people No people
        Green 4 19 Aug 2015 09:00 167 No people No people
        Green 5 19 Aug 2015 15:00 148 No people No people Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
        Green 6 19 Aug 2015 21:00 139 No people No people Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
        Green 7 20 Aug 2015 03:00 130 No people No people Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
        Green 8 20 Aug 2015 09:00 120 No people No people Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
        Orange 9 20 Aug 2015 15:00 120 No people 400 thousand Antigua and Barbuda, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Saint Kitts and Nevis
        Green 10 20 Aug 2015 21:00 139 No people No people Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
        Green 11 21 Aug 2015 03:00 139 No people No people Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
        Green 12 21 Aug 2015 09:00 148 No people No people Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
        Orange 13 21 Aug 2015 15:00 93 No people No people Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
        Orange 14 21 Aug 2015 21:00 93 No people No people Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
        Green 15 22 Aug 2015 03:00 176 No people No people Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
        Green 16 22 Aug 2015 09:00 157 No people No people Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Bahamas, Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
        Green 17 22 Aug 2015 15:00 148 No people No people Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Turks and Caicos Islands, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
        Green 18 22 Aug 2015 21:00 120 No people No people Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
        Green 19 23 Aug 2015 03:00 93 No people No people Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
        Green 20 23 Aug 2015 09:00 83 No people No people Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
        Green 21 23 Aug 2015 15:00 83 No people No people Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
        Green 22 23 Aug 2015 21:00 65 No people No people Dominica, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
        Green 23 24 Aug 2015 03:00 65 No people No people Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
        Green 24 24 Aug 2015 09:00 65 No people No people Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 18 Aug 2015 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 10.6, -36.5
          GREEN
          		 2 18 Aug 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 10.9, -37.5
          GREEN
          		 3 19 Aug 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 11.2, -38.8
          GREEN
          		 4 19 Aug 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 11.3, -40.2
          GREEN
          		 5 19 Aug 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 11.2, -41.1
          GREEN
          		 6 19 Aug 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 11.5, -42
          GREEN
          		 7 20 Aug 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12.1, -42.7
          GREEN
          		 8 20 Aug 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12.2, -43.7
          GREEN
          		 9 20 Aug 2015 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 12.5, -44.8
          GREEN
          		 10 20 Aug 2015 21:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 13, -45.7
          GREEN
          		 11 21 Aug 2015 03:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 13.4, -46.6
          GREEN
          		 12 21 Aug 2015 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 13.7, -47.4
          GREEN
          		 13 21 Aug 2015 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14, -48.2
          GREEN
          		 14 21 Aug 2015 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.5, -49.1
          GREEN
          		 15 22 Aug 2015 03:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 14.8, -49.8
          GREEN
          		 16 22 Aug 2015 09:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 15.2, -50.8
          GREEN
          		 17 22 Aug 2015 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.4, -52
          GREEN
          		 18 22 Aug 2015 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.8, -53.3
          GREEN
          		 19 23 Aug 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.6, -54.7
          GREEN
          		 20 23 Aug 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.8, -56
          GREEN
          		 21 23 Aug 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.8, -57.3
          GREEN
          		 22 23 Aug 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 190000 people 15.6, -59 Dominica
          GREEN
          		 23 24 Aug 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 960000 people 15.6, -59.8 Montserrat
          GREEN
          		 24 24 Aug 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 490000 people 15.8, -60.5 Montserrat
          GREEN
          		 24 24 Aug 2015 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 16.1, -62.6 Montserrat
          GREEN
          		 24 25 Aug 2015 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 16.5, -65.2
          GREEN
          		 24 25 Aug 2015 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 17, -67.8
          GREEN
          		 24 26 Aug 2015 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 17.4, -71 Dominican Republic
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Guadeloupe 380000 people
          Dominica 61000 people
          Martinique 86000 people
          Montserrat 2200 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
          Dominica Dominica
          Martinique Martinique
          Montserrat Montserrat

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Moule Guadeloupe City -
          Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 17000 people
          Capesterre Guadeloupe City -
          Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City -
          Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people
          Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people
          Plymouth Saint Anthony Montserrat Capital no people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          La Desirade Les Galets DSD unknown 0
          Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000
          Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
          St. Francois SFC unknown 0
          Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0
          Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500
          Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0
          Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400
          Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0
          Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0
          W H Bramble (Abandoned) 12 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Grand Bourg Guadeloupe
          Saint Louis Guadeloupe
          Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica
          Roseau DMRSU Dominica
          Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe
          Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe
          La Trinite Martinique
          Port Louis Guadeloupe
          Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe
          Le Robert Martinique
          Plymouth Montserrat
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Baie-Mahault, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 24 Aug 2015 13:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 24 Aug 2015 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          24 Aug 2015 13:00 Baie-Mahault Guadeloupe  0.2
          24 Aug 2015 13:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 14:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 13:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 14:00 Bas Vent Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 13:00 Saint-Louis Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 13:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 12:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 14:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 14:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 14:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 12:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 15:00 La Pointe-Noire Guadeloupe  0.1
          24 Aug 2015 15:00 Bouillante Guadeloupe  0.1