Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PRISCILLA-19 in Mexico from 20 Oct 2019 09:00 UTC to 21 Oct 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-19

in Mexico

21 Oct 2019 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 Oct 09:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.2 m	221 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	61 km/h	0.2 m	221 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

61 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	20 Oct 2019 06:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 Oct 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	20 Oct 2019 18:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	21 Oct 2019 00:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	21 Oct 2019 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	21 Oct 2019 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	832,058
50-100 mm	Mexico	6,712,168

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	20 Oct 2019 06:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	20 Oct 2019 12:00	91	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
3	20 Oct 2019 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
4	21 Oct 2019 00:00	145	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	21 Oct 2019 06:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	21 Oct 2019 12:00	188	Few people			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Port Mansfield, United States. This height is estimated for 21 Oct 2019 09:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Oct 2019 09:45	Port Mansfield	United States	0.2
	21 Oct 2019 11:30	South Padre Island	United States	0.1
	20 Oct 2019 16:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	20 Oct 2019 16:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 11:30	Holly Beach	United States	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 11:30	Laguna Vista	United States	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 11:30	Port Isabel	United States	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 06:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 11:45	Laguna Heights	United States	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 11:45	Boca Chica	United States	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 11:45	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 00:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 00:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	20 Oct 2019 16:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	20 Oct 2019 16:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 05:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 05:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	21 Oct 2019 06:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	20 Oct 2019 16:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	20 Oct 2019 16:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	20 Oct 2019 16:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.