Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PRISCILLA-19 in Mexico from 20 Oct 2019 09:00 UTC to 21 Oct 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-19

in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

21/10 03:59 WTNT82EGRR210358

21/10 03:59 WTNT80EGRR210358

21/10 02:37 WTPZ44KNHC210234

21/10 02:37 WTPZ34KNHC210234

21/10 02:35 WTPZ24KNHC210233

20/10 20:42 WTPZ44KNHC202039

20/10 20:40 WTPZ34KNHC202037RRA

20/10 20:40 WTPZ24KNHC202037

20/10 20:39 WTPZ34KNHC202037

20/10 17:47 WTPZ34KNHC201745RRA

20/10 17:46 WTPZ34KNHC201745

20/10 14:42 WTPZ44KNHC201440RRA

20/10 14:42 WTPZ34KNHC201439RRA

20/10 14:41 WTPZ44KNHC201440

20/10 14:41 WTPZ34KNHC201439

20/10 14:41 WTPZ24KNHC201439

20/10 11:47 WTPZ34KNHC201145RRA

20/10 11:47 WTPZ34KNHC201145

20/10 08:48 WTPZ44KNHC200845RRA

20/10 08:47 WTPZ44KNHC200845

20/10 08:47 WTPZ34KNHC200844RRA

20/10 08:47 WTPZ24KNHC200844

20/10 08:46 WTPZ34KNHC200844

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 210358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 100.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.10.2019 0 18.3N 100.5W 1006 22
1200UTC 21.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 9.1N 140.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2019 12 9.1N 140.1W 1007 24
0000UTC 22.10.2019 24 9.1N 141.6W 1006 23
1200UTC 22.10.2019 36 9.6N 143.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 23.10.2019 48 10.2N 145.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 23.10.2019 60 10.7N 147.8W 1005 26
0000UTC 24.10.2019 72 11.3N 150.3W 1004 25
1200UTC 24.10.2019 84 12.2N 151.7W 1005 26
0000UTC 25.10.2019 96 13.4N 153.6W 1004 27
1200UTC 25.10.2019 108 14.6N 155.6W 1005 26
0000UTC 26.10.2019 120 15.2N 157.5W 1005 25
1200UTC 26.10.2019 132 15.4N 158.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 27.10.2019 144 15.5N 159.6W 1006 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.1N 126.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.10.2019 48 11.4N 126.9W 1007 20
1200UTC 23.10.2019 60 12.0N 127.3W 1007 22
0000UTC 24.10.2019 72 12.2N 127.7W 1006 21
1200UTC 24.10.2019 84 12.4N 127.8W 1007 22
0000UTC 25.10.2019 96 12.2N 128.3W 1006 22
1200UTC 25.10.2019 108 12.0N 128.6W 1007 23
0000UTC 26.10.2019 120 11.9N 129.4W 1006 23
1200UTC 26.10.2019 132 11.8N 129.6W 1007 21
0000UTC 27.10.2019 144 11.6N 129.8W 1005 20

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 26.7N 96.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2019 144 26.9N 96.6W 1006 26

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210358

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 210358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 100.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.10.2019 18.3N 100.5W WEAK
12UTC 21.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 9.1N 140.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2019 9.1N 140.1W WEAK
00UTC 22.10.2019 9.1N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2019 9.6N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2019 10.2N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2019 10.7N 147.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2019 11.3N 150.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2019 12.2N 151.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2019 13.4N 153.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2019 14.6N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2019 15.2N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2019 15.4N 158.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2019 15.5N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.1N 126.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.10.2019 11.4N 126.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.10.2019 12.0N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2019 12.2N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2019 12.4N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2019 12.2N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2019 12.0N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2019 11.9N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2019 11.8N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2019 11.6N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 26.7N 96.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2019 26.9N 96.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210358

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 210234
TCDEP4

REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON PRISCILLA. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION, AND THEREFORE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED, THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANT TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THAT REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.0N 104.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 210234
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

...PRISCILLA DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 104.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA WERE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 15
INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF NAYARIT, JALISCO, COLIMA, AND MICHOACAN
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN STEEP TERRAIN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PRISCILLA.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 210233
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 104.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PRISCILLA.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 202039
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

PRISCILLA MOVED INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AROUND
1930 UTC JUST TO THE EAST OF MANZANILLO. THE RUGGED TERRAIN IN THAT
AREA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY 12 HOURS, IF NOT SOONER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AT 1800 UTC WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND T2.7/37 KT AND
38 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON, RESPECTIVELY, WHICH SUPPORTED AN
INTENSITY OF 35 KT AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 30 KT AT THE ADVISORY TIME SINCE PRISCILLA IS NOW
LOCATED INLAND, WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVING BEEN
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/08 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
PRISCILLA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND FARTHER INLAND OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A 12-HOUR FORECAST POSITION WAS PROVIDED
MAINLY FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PRISCILLA AND ITS REMNANTS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 19.1N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 202037 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

...PRISCILLA MAKES LANDFALL EAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WEAKENS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 104.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE
104.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH
(15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL PRISCILLA DISSIPATES INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT PRISCILLA IS
INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE SMALL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 202037
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 104.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 104.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 104.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 202037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Priscilla Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...PRISCILLA MAKES LANDFALL EAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WEAKENS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 104.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for southwestern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of recently downgraded Tropical
Depression Priscilla was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude
104.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through
tonight until Priscilla dissipates inland over southwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected now that Priscilla is
inland over southwestern Mexico, and the small cyclone is expected
to dissipate later tonight or early Monday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Priscilla and its remnants are expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15
inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan
in southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201745 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

...PRISCILLA JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 104.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF TECOMAN MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF PRISCILLA WILL MAKE LANDFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE PRISCILLA MOVES
INLAND. RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION ARE EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201745
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...PRISCILLA JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 104.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF TECOMAN MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 104.0 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Priscilla will make landfall this afternoon and move
inland this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Priscilla moves
inland. Rapid weakening and dissipation are expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area later today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 201440 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

DEEP CONVECTION, WITH SOME OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS TO -90 DEG C, HAS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS BEEN DISPLACED INTO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODEST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE COLD CLOUD CANOPY HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS ALSO STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA THAT
SHOWED 32-33 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, ALONG WITH THE MUCH-
IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASSES. THE
35-KT INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT AND T2.3/33 KT FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT,
RESPECTIVELY. THUS, THE CYCLONE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
PRISCILLA AT 1200 UTC.

PRISCILLA IS MOVING A LITTLE WEST OF DUE NORTH OR 355/6 KT. THE
SMALL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS SLOW
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED.

PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS IN EXCESS OF 29 DEG C AND INTO AN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201439 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

...PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 104.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST.
PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY, AND MOVE INLAND BY
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE PRISCILLA MOVES INLAND.
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION ARE EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 201440
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Deep convection, with some overshooting cloud tops to -90 deg C, has
continued to develop and expand since the previous advisory. Most of
the convective cloud mass has been displaced into the western
semicircle due to modest easterly to southeasterly vertical wind
shear. However, the cold cloud canopy has expanded eastward over the
center during the past couple of hours, suggesting that the cyclone
is becoming better organized and has also strengthened. The initial
intensity of 35 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind data that
showed 32-33 kt in the southwestern quadrant, along with the much-
improved satellite signature since the time of the ASCAT passes. The
35-kt intensity is also supported by recent satellite intensity
estimates of T2.5/35 kt and T2.3/33 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT,
respectively. Thus, the cyclone was upgraded to Tropical Storm
Priscilla at 1200 UTC.

Priscilla is moving a little west of due north or 355/6 kt. The
small cyclone is expected to move generally northward around the
western extent of a deep-layer ridge that is oriented east-to-west
across the Bay of Campeche and south-central Mexico. This slow
motion should bring the center of Priscilla inland over southwestern
Mexico late this afternoon or early evening. The latest NHC model
guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so no
significant changes to the previous track forecast were required.

Priscilla will be moving over SSTs in excess of 29 deg C and into an
upper-level environment of gradually decreasing shear, so some
additional slight strengthening will be possible before landfall
occurs in about 12 hours. However, the peak intensity likely will
not be much higher than 40 kt. After moving inland, Priscilla will
rapidly weaken and dissipate due to the rugged mountainous terrain
of southwestern Mexico.

The primary threat with Tropical Storm Priscilla will be heavy
rainfall, along with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 18.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.0N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR MEXICAN COAST
24H 21/1200Z 19.7N 104.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 104.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla
was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 104.0 West.
Priscilla is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Priscilla will approach the southwestern coast
of Mexico within the warning area later today, and move inland by
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Priscilla moves inland.
Rapid weakening and dissipation are expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area later today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 201439
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 104.2W...NEAR MEXICAN COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.7N 104.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 104.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201145 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
700 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF PRISCILLA WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY, AND MOVE INLAND BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE PRISCILLA MOVES INLAND. RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201145
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 104.0 West. Priscilla is
is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Priscilla will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
within the warning area later today, and move inland by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is possible
before Priscilla moves inland. Rapid weakening and dissipation is
expected after landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of
the warning area later today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200845 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

MICROWAVE, GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE, AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THAT THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO QUICKLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. MULTIPLE ASCAT PASSES REVEALED WINDS OF AT
LEAST 25-30 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, AND
BASED ON THESE DATA, THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/6 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN MEXICO. THIS MOTION SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
LATER TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FIELDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN AN
AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT, THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS. DUE TO THE SHEAR AND THE VERY SHORT TIME THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER, ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS PREDICTED. THE DEPRESSION, HOWEVER, COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ONCE INLAND, THE CYCLONE SHOULD RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE CYCLONE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200845
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Microwave, geostationary satellite, and scatterometer data indicate
that the small area of low pressure located near the southwestern
coast of Mexico quickly became better defined during the evening
hours, and deep convection has persisted and become better
organized overnight. Multiple ASCAT passes revealed winds of at
least 25-30 kt over the southern portion of the circulation, and
based on these data, the system is being classified as a 30-kt
tropical depression.

The depression is moving northward or 355/6 kt. The global models
indicate that the depression will move generally northward around
the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico. This motion should
bring the center of the cyclone inland over southwestern Mexico
later today or early tonight. The NHC track forecast follows a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF model fields.

The depression is currently located over warm waters and within an
area of moderate easterly shear. In fact, the center of the
depression is currently located near the eastern edge of the
convective mass. Due to the shear and the very short time the
system is expected to remain over water, only slight strengthening
is predicted. The depression, however, could become a short-lived
tropical storm later today. Once inland, the cyclone should rapidly
weaken and dissipate over the high terrain of southwestern Mexico.

The primary threat with the cyclone will be heavy rainfall
and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions
of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 17.5N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200844 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H)
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY, AND
MOVE INLAND BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE, AND THE DEPRESSION COULD

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 200844
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 104.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200844
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta San Telmo westward to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.0
West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On this
track, the center of the depression is forecast to approach the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the warning area today, and
move inland by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm before it moves inland. Rapid weakening
and dissipation is expected after landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwest Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could produce
flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of
the warning area later today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

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