Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-19
in Mexico
20 Oct 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (20 Oct 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 76 km/h 0.4 m 527 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 76 km/h 0.4 m 527 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

76 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2019 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico212 
100-250 mmMexico219,969 
50-100 mmMexico961,461 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2019 06:00 269 4 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 20 Oct 2019 12:00 527 50 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Los Dolores, Mexico. This height is estimated for 20 Oct 2019 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20 Oct 2019 12:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.4
20 Oct 2019 14:30 Ligui Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 14:30 Tripui Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 12:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 12:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 17:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 16:30 Datilito Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 16:30 La Paz Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 17:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 13:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 16:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 16:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 15:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 15:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 16:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 16:45 Rosario Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 17:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 17:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2019 17:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 17:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 18:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 16:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 16:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 16:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 17:15 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 17:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 17:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 14:15 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 16:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 17:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 17:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 11:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 11:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 16:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 16:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2019 17:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1