Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RINA-17
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091614

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM RINA ANALYSED POSITION : 46.0N 46.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.11.2017 0 46.0N 46.4W 1000 42
0000UTC 10.11.2017 12 51.7N 40.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 10.11.2017 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.6N 132.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2017 132 17.0N 132.9W 1007 30
1200UTC 15.11.2017 144 17.3N 134.7W 1009 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091614


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091614

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM RINA ANALYSED POSITION : 46.0N 46.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.11.2017 46.0N 46.4W MODERATE
00UTC 10.11.2017 51.7N 40.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.6N 132.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2017 17.0N 132.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.11.2017 17.3N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091614


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 091448
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

Satellite images and surface data indicate that Rina has become a
post-tropical cyclone. The system is embedded within low stratus
clouds, with nippy air temperatures around 45 deg F about a degree
to the northwest of the center. Interestingly, despite being over
water temperatures around 9 deg C, instability aloft is still
producing some elevated deep convection well northeast of the
center, though this is not indicative of tropical cyclone status.
The initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, which is the maximum wind
value from a pair of recently received scatterometer passes. The
cyclone should move rather rapidly to the northeast and
east-northeast over the next day before becoming elongated and
dissipating west of Ireland. Little change in strength is
anticipated, consistent with the global models.

This is the last advisory on Rina. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Hopefully Rina will be the finale of the extremely active 2017
Atlantic hurricane season. However that might be wishful thinking
since, of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons before this year,
seven of them still had another tropical storm after today's date.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 47.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 091447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

...RINA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.0N 45.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1480 MI...2385 KM SW OF REYKJAVIC ICELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina
was located near latitude 47.0 North, longitude 45.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65
km/h) and a faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is
expected until dissipation tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before the low dissipates
tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 091446
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 180SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.0N 45.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 090842
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

It is difficult to depict the presence of a tropical cyclone on
satellite imagery. The previous convection near the possible center
has become completely detached while the circulation is becoming
elongated. In fact, my initial position and intensity are primarily
based on continuity. Rina is over very cold waters and a frontal
system is rapidly approaching the cyclone, so the NHC forecast calls
for Rina to become extratropical during the next 12 hours. Visible
images later this morning will probably help to determine the
structure of Rina if a cyclone exists by then.

Rina or the extratropical low should move fast toward the northeast
and then to the east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerly
flow. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was use in the
NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 44.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 49.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/0600Z 54.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1800Z 55.0N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090840
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

...RINA FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 47.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 47.0 West. Rina is
moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this
general motion with a significant increase in forward speed is
expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today and
dissipate by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 090840
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
0900 UTC THU NOV 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 47.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 260SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 47.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 48.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 49.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 250SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 54.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 55.0N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 300SE 210SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 090236
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

A small area of deep convection persists near the center of Rina,
likely supported by very cold temperatures aloft and increasing
upper-level divergence overcoming SSTs less than 20C. The initial
intensity remains 45 kt based largely on continuity from the ASCAT
pass earlier today, as the latest ASCAT passes missed much of Rina's
circulation. Given the maintenance of deep convection, Rina remains
a tropical cyclone, but should not be one for long as vertical
shear is expected to increase above 30 kt and SSTs cool below 15C
along the forecast track in the next 12 hours. The cyclone should
become post-tropical by 12 hours and merge with a frontal zone by 24
hours. Post-tropical Rina should open up into a trough in 36 to 48
hours in the fast westerly flow over the north Atlantic. No change
in strength is forecast prior to dissipation, based on global model
guidance.

Satellite fixes indicate that Rina moved a little to the west of the
previous forecast track in the past few hours, but the cyclone now
appears to be moving north-northeastward or 020/20. The cyclone is
forecast to accelerate northeastward over the next 24 hours as it
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude flow, and an even faster east-
northeastward motion is expected on Friday prior to dissipation. The
new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left and is closer
to the ECMWF model in the short range, since that model has best
handled the recent motion of Rina. At 24 to 36 hours, the NHC
forecast lies to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids.

The track, intensity and structure forecasts of Rina during its
post-tropical phase have been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 42.5N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 45.7N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 10/0000Z 51.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z 55.0N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

...RINA STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT HEADS FOR THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.5N 48.3W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 42.5 North, longitude 48.3 West. Rina is
moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected
on Thursday. A faster east-northeastward motion is expected on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Rina is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday and dissipate
by late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 090233
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
0300 UTC THU NOV 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 48.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 260SE 90SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 48.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 48.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.7N 46.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.0N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 300SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.5N 48.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 082032
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

The only significant change to Rina in the past several hours is the
redevelopment of a small area of deep convection near the center.
Otherwise, the large cyclone continues to have a somewhat
subtropical appearance in satellite imagery, although available
microwave data still indicate Rina is best classified as tropical.
The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on ASCAT data from
earlier today. Rina should lose all deep convection overnight as it
moves over very cold waters and is forecast to become a frontal
cyclone within 24 hours. Little change in strength is forecast
throughout the period, consistent with the global model guidance.
The extratropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate near or west of
Ireland by day 3, although some of the guidance isn't clear on
exactly when that will occur.

Rina continues to accelerate northward, now at about 20 kt. The
storm has been interacting with an upper-level low, as seen on water
vapor images, which has kept the cyclone a bit west of the previous
forecast. However, Rina is forecast to turn north-northeastward
overnight and accelerate northeastward by Thursday night due to the
cyclone leaving the influence of the upper low and entering stronger
mid-latitude flow. The models are again west of the previous
forecast in the short term, so the new NHC forecast is adjusted to
the west, similar to a blend of the latest consensus and corrected
consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 40.9N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 44.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 09/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z 53.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 55.5N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 082031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 48.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 48.6 West. Rina is
moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected overnight, followed by a rapid
northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward motion
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by
early Thursday morning.

Rina is becoming a larger tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to the east
of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 082031
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
2100 UTC WED NOV 08 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 48.6W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 260SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 48.6W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 44.0N 47.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 280SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 53.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 300SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 55.5N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 300SE 360SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM RINA ANALYSED POSITION : 38.3N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.11.2017 0 38.3N 48.6W 994 46
0000UTC 09.11.2017 12 41.8N 48.5W 992 50
1200UTC 09.11.2017 24 46.1N 45.5W 1000 45
0000UTC 10.11.2017 36 51.6N 38.7W 1007 39
1200UTC 10.11.2017 48 55.0N 23.9W 1011 36
0000UTC 11.11.2017 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 28.9N 33.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2017 132 29.3N 33.2W 1010 25
1200UTC 14.11.2017 144 30.5N 30.5W 1008 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.8N 132.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.11.2017 144 15.8N 132.8W 1006 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081608


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 081608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM RINA ANALYSED POSITION : 38.3N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.11.2017 38.3N 48.6W MODERATE
00UTC 09.11.2017 41.8N 48.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2017 46.1N 45.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2017 51.6N 38.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2017 55.0N 23.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.11.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 28.9N 33.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.11.2017 29.3N 33.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.11.2017 30.5N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.8N 132.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.11.2017 15.8N 132.8W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081608


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 081443
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

Rina continues to have some subtropical characteristics with
satellite images showing an asymmetric, comma-cloud structure.
Still, AMSU and model analyses are showing the system as moderately
warm core, and there are no signs of fronts near the core. Thus,
Rina will stay as a tropical cyclone, and 50 kt is kept as the
initial wind speed based on the latest satellite estimates. Little
change in strength is expected before Rina loses all deep convection
within the next 24 hours over chilly waters. The system should
become embedded within a frontal zone over the far north Atlantic in
a day or two, and dissipate west of Ireland. No changes were made to
the previous intensity forecast.

The storm is moving northward a bit faster at 18 kt. A continued
acceleration and a turn to the north-northeast is expected overnight
as Rina moves ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes. The
cyclone should move quite rapidly to the northeast by late Thursday
and east-northeast on Friday due to strong mid-latitude flow. The
westward guidance trend in the short-term part of the forecast
is still present, and the new NHC prediction is moved in that
direction in the first 24 hours, with little change thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 39.4N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 42.2N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 47.1N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 10/0000Z 52.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

...RINA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 48.7 West. Rina is
moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected overnight, followed by a rapid
northeastward motion on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through tonight before
weakening begins on Thursday. Rina is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone by early Thursday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 081442
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
1500 UTC WED NOV 08 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 48.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..170NE 240SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 48.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 48.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 42.2N 47.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 47.1N 44.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 52.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 300SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 240SE 360SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080851
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

Satellite imagery over the past 6 hours indicates that Rina has
taken on a tight comma-cloud appearance, more indicative of a
sub-tropical cyclone than a tropical system. Although an eye-like
feature has recently developed, it appears to be tilted about 20-30
nmi to the north of the low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates were ST3.0/45-50 kt from TAFB and T3.5 from SAB. Data
from a late-arriving, partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass at 0029Z
indicated 46-kt surface winds well east of the center, and the cloud
pattern has improved since that time. Based these data, the
intensity of Rina has been increased to 50 kt.

Rina is moving northward or 010/17 kt. Rina is located just north
of the axis of a deep-layer ridge, which is located to the east of
the cyclone. As a result, a northward to north-northeastward motion
is expected for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, a shortwave trough
situated to the southwest of Rina should induce acceleration toward
the northeast on Thursday, followed by a more rapid motion of 30-35
kt by Thursday night and Friday as westerly flow on the east side of
a deep-layer trough captures the system. The latest NHC model
guidance has shifted to the west some, but the official forecast
track has only been nudged slightly in that direction due to a
distinct westward bias noted in the model guidance during the past
48 hours.

Although some sight strengthening could occur during the next 6-12
hours, the overall intensity trend is forecast to change little
during the period due to the combination of cold SSTs of less than
20 deg C by 18 h and increasing vertical wind shear of more than 35
kt by 36 hours. By 24 h, Rina should become a post-tropical cyclone
over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic and become
extratropical and merge with a front by 48-72 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 37.1N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 39.7N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 43.6N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 09/1800Z 48.7N 40.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0600Z 53.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

...RINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE COLD
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 48.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 48.4 West. Rina is
moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by this afternoon, followed by a rapid
northeastward motion on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight
before weakening begins on Thursday. Rina is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone by tonight or early Thursday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080832
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
0900 UTC WED NOV 08 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 48.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 200SE 80SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 48.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.7N 47.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 43.6N 45.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 48.7N 40.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 53.3N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 190SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 48.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM RINA ANALYSED POSITION : 35.3N 48.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2017 0 35.3N 48.5W 1002 44
1200UTC 08.11.2017 12 38.5N 48.9W 994 45
0000UTC 09.11.2017 24 41.7N 48.3W 992 51
1200UTC 09.11.2017 36 46.1N 45.2W 999 46
0000UTC 10.11.2017 48 51.8N 37.3W 1006 41
1200UTC 10.11.2017 60 54.7N 22.0W 1011 37
0000UTC 11.11.2017 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 29.2N 35.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.11.2017 120 30.2N 36.5W 1010 29
1200UTC 13.11.2017 132 29.9N 36.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 14.11.2017 144 30.8N 34.9W 1008 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080405


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 080405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM RINA ANALYSED POSITION : 35.3N 48.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.11.2017 35.3N 48.5W WEAK
12UTC 08.11.2017 38.5N 48.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2017 41.7N 48.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2017 46.1N 45.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2017 51.8N 37.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2017 54.7N 22.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.11.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 29.2N 35.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.11.2017 30.2N 36.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.11.2017 29.9N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2017 30.8N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080405


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080236
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

Rina's satellite presentation has acquired some sub-tropical
characteristics this evening as it interacts with a mid- to
upper-level trough to its west and southwest. The center remains
exposed to the south of the primary mass of convection, but the
convection has loosely wrapped around the northwestern portion of
the circulation which has lead to an increase in overall banding.
Recent ASCAT data shows that there has been an overall increase in
the size of the wind field and that the maximum winds have increased
to around 45 kt. Rina is forecast to remain within an environment
of moderate shear and marginal instability during the next 24 hours,
however some additional strengthening is possible tonight and
Wednesday due to interaction with the aforementioned upper-level
trough. By early Thursday, Rina will be moving over much colder
waters and is forecast to become post-tropical. The cyclone should
become a fully extratropical low by late Thursday.

Rina continues to move northward or 010/16 kt. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The cyclone
should turn north-northeastward around a large high pressure system
over the eastern Atlantic by late Wednesday, and then begin to
accelerate northeastward on Thursday when it becomes embedded within
strong mid-latitude flow. The track guidance remains in fairly good
agreement and the NHC forecast is again near the various consensus
aids to account for some differences in forward speed among the
global models. The cyclone is expected to dissipate along a frontal
zone over the far north Atlantic in about 72 hours or less.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 35.4N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 41.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 45.7N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 10/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

...RINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 48.5W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 48.5 West. Rina is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected late tomorrow, followed by a rapid
northeast motion on Thursday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast tonight and Wednesday before
weakening likely begins on Thursday. Rina is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080236
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
0300 UTC WED NOV 08 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 48.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 200SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 48.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 41.2N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.7N 43.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 48.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 072033
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

Satellite images show that Rina has a sheared appearance with an
asymmetric area of convection near and northeast of the center
along with a large cloud shield in the northern semicircle. An
earlier ASCAT pass had 35 kt winds well east of the center and,
given that the pass likely missed the strongest winds, the wind
speed is set to 40 kt on this advisory.

Rina is moving in a moderate shear, marginally unstable environment
characterized by cool upper-level temperatures counteracting cool
SSTs. These conditions along the path of the cyclone don't change
much during the next 24-36 hours, so a continuation of the slow
increase in wind speed is forecast. After that time, Rina is
forecast to move over much colder water into higher shear, which
should cause weakening, and will eventually turn Rina into an
extratropical cyclone in about 2 days. Most of the models show only
slight strengthening over the next day or so, and the official
forecast follows suit, close to the SHIPS model for a peak
intensity.

Rina is moving northward, now at 16 kt. The storm should turn to
the north-northeast around a high over the eastern Atlantic late
tomorrow. Rina should move quite rapidly to the northeast on
Thursday as it becomes embedded within strong mid-latitude flow. The
global models, other than some forward speed differences, remain in
good agreement, and the latest forecast is basically an update of
the previous one, near the corrected-consensus models. Most of the
guidance stretch the system out over the North Atlantic, causing the
low to dissipate by 72 hours west of Ireland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 33.8N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 36.2N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 39.4N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 43.0N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 48.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 072033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

...RINA A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 48.9W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 48.9 West. Rina is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected late tomorrow, followed by a rapid
northeast motion on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through Wednesday before weakening
likely begins on Thursday. Rina could lose tropical characteristics
in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 072033
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
2100 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 48.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 200SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 48.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 49.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 36.2N 48.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.4N 48.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 43.0N 46.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 48.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 48.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 071607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM RINA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.11.2017 0 31.9N 49.5W 1009 35
0000UTC 08.11.2017 12 35.5N 48.8W 1002 45
1200UTC 08.11.2017 24 38.5N 49.2W 993 43
0000UTC 09.11.2017 36 41.4N 48.4W 991 52
1200UTC 09.11.2017 48 45.8N 45.2W 997 49
0000UTC 10.11.2017 60 51.5N 37.3W 1004 43
1200UTC 10.11.2017 72 54.2N 22.5W 1012 36
0000UTC 11.11.2017 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071606


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM RINA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.11.2017 31.9N 49.5W WEAK
00UTC 08.11.2017 35.5N 48.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2017 38.5N 49.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2017 41.4N 48.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2017 45.8N 45.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2017 51.5N 37.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2017 54.2N 22.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.11.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071606


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 071446
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

Thunderstorms continue to increase near and on the northeastern
side of Rina. However, the center remains partially exposed due to
southwesterly shear. Although the overall convective pattern is
more organized than a few hours ago, satellite estimates continue
to support a conservative initial wind speed of 35 kt for this
advisory.

The environment around Rina is expected to be only slightly
supportive of intensification for the next day or so with moderate
shear and cool upper-level temperatures offsetting marginal SSTs.
In about 48 hours, Rina should interact with a frontal boundary and
become post-tropical. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on
this scenario and little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, which is near or slightly above the consensus.

Rina is moving northward at about 13 kt. The storm is forecast to
accelerate today and turn northeastward tomorrow as it becomes more
embedded within the mid-latitude flow. Rina should move rather
rapidly to the northeast later this week over the far northern
Atlantic ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes. Only
small changes were made to the track forecast, and the new NHC
prediction is slightly faster than the last one at long range. The
storm should dissipate by day 4 well west of Ireland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 32.4N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 41.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 45.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z 56.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071445
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

...RINA MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 49.3W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1315 MI...2110 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 49.3 West. Rina is
moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general
motion accompanied by an increase in forward speed is expected
through tonight. An even faster motion toward the north-northeast is
forecast to occur by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 071445
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
1500 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 49.3W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 160SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 49.3W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 49.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 41.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 56.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 240SE 240SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 49.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070844
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

Rina's overall convective cloud pattern has increased is areal
coverage in the eastern semicircle, along with a little more deep
convection having developed near the well-defined low-level center.
In addition, drifting buoy 41506, located about 40 nmi northwest of
the center, reported a pressure of 1011.5 mb at 0600 UTC, and that
datum was used to estimate the central pressure of 1009 mb.
Satellite classifications from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT remain at T2.5,
so the intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory, which
could be conservative given the lower central pressure.

The initial motion estimate is 005/10 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. As Rina moves
around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, the
cyclone should continue to accelerate toward the north today and
then toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. By 48 hours, Rina is
expected to get caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies and
accelerate even more toward the northeast over the cold waters
of the north Atlantic. The NHC track guidance has shifted a little
more to left, so the new official forecast track has also been
nudged in that direction, close to consensus models TVCN and HCCA.

Based on GOES-16 ice physics satellite imagery, the inner-core of
Rina's circulation appears to have tightened up some and has also
become better defined. Some modest strengthening is forecast for
the next 36 h or so due to some baroclinic forcing associated with
an approaching vigorous shortwave trough currently located about 400
nmi to the west. By 48 h, the cyclone will be situated over water
temperatures colder than 20 deg C and within an environment of
increasing deep-layer wind shear. The combination of those two
negative factors are expected is result in Rina becoming an
extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
HCCA intensity consensus model, and also includes input from the
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 31.4N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 33.7N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 37.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 40.4N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 44.4N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 53.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070843
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

...RINA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1370 MI...2200 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 49.8 West. Rina is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion accompanied by an increase in forward speed is expected
through today. A turn toward north-northeast is forecast to occur
by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure of 1009 mb (29.80 inches) is
based on recent reports from a nearby buoy.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 070843
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
0900 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.8W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.8W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 33.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.0N 48.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 40.4N 47.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 44.4N 44.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 53.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 49.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 070406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 50.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.11.2017 0 29.7N 50.6W 1013 27
1200UTC 07.11.2017 12 31.7N 49.7W 1011 33
0000UTC 08.11.2017 24 34.7N 49.5W 1006 37
1200UTC 08.11.2017 36 38.1N 49.2W 1003 41
0000UTC 09.11.2017 48 41.2N 48.3W 997 45
1200UTC 09.11.2017 60 45.4N 45.5W 1000 46
0000UTC 10.11.2017 72 51.1N 39.1W 1005 39
1200UTC 10.11.2017 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.5N 69.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.11.2017 84 37.7N 66.5W 1009 30
0000UTC 11.11.2017 96 42.3N 59.7W 1000 46
1200UTC 11.11.2017 108 48.0N 52.5W 990 41
0000UTC 12.11.2017 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070406


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.11.2017

TROPICAL STORM 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 50.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.11.2017 29.7N 50.6W WEAK
12UTC 07.11.2017 31.7N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2017 34.7N 49.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2017 38.1N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2017 41.2N 48.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.11.2017 45.4N 45.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2017 51.1N 39.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.5N 69.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.11.2017 37.7N 66.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.11.2017 42.3N 59.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.11.2017 48.0N 52.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.11.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070406


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070236
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

Despite the low-level center being exposed to the west of the deep
convection, a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 00Z and
01Z showed an area of 30-35 kt winds east of the cyclone's center.
Based on the ASCAT data, the depression is upgraded to a tropical
storm with the initial intensity set at 35 kt. The rather
disorganized cloud pattern is consistent with the approximately 20
kt of westerly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The
environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for
intensification via diabatic processes, with the shear expected to
remain near 20 kt and the SSTs cooling along the forecast track.
After 24 to 36 hours, cooling upper-tropospheric temperatures and
increasing upper-level divergence suggest that Rina will maintain
its intensity as it begins extratropical transition, which should be
complete between by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and is close to the HWRF and HCCA aids.
The official forecast shows Rina dissipating by 96 hours in
agreement with global model fields.

The exposed low-level center and ASCAT passes result in high
confidence in the initial position, and Rina has begun to move
more steadily, with an initial motion estimate of 010/06. Rina
should continue to accelerate northward and north-northeastward
during the next 36 to 48 hours between a mid-level ridge to the east
and an upper-level trough to the west. After 48 hours, Rina is
forecast to accelerate further as it enters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The track model guidance has shifted left this cycle,
and the along-track spread is quite large by 72 hours, with the GFS
more than 500 n mi northeast of the ECMWF at that time. The new NHC
track forecast has been adjusted westward and a bit slower, and lies
close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions to the east of the
TVCA multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than usual given the large model spread.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 30.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 32.4N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 35.4N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 42.3N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 51.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 49.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 49.9 West. Rina is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a general
northward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to
continue through Wednesday, followed by a north-northeastward
motion on Wednesday night.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 070234
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
0300 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 49.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 49.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 50.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.4N 49.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 35.4N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 42.3N 46.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 49.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 062031
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

The depression has changed little in structure during the past
several hours. The low-level center remains exposed to the west of
the main area of deep convection due to the influence of westerly
shear and dry air. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on
the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak classification of 2.0/30 kt from
TAFB.

Satellite fixes indicate that the system has been moving slowly and
erratically during the past 6 to 12 hours. Smoothing through the
wobbles yields an initial motion of 020/5 kt. The combined
influences of a mid-level ridge to the east of the depression and a
shortwave trough to its west should cause the system to move
progressively faster toward the north or north-northeast during the
next couple of days. Beyond that time, an even faster northeastward
motion is expected when the system becomes embedded in the mid-
latitude westerlies. The latest track guidance is notably slower
than the previous cycles, and the new NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction.

The cyclone is expected to remain in an environment of moderate
westerly shear while it moves toward cooler waters. Although these
conditions typically would not favor strengthening, the models do
show the depression deepening during the next couple of days, likely
due to some baroclinic forcing and the expected increase in forward
speed of the system. The cyclone will likely complete extratropical
transition Wednesday night or early Thursday when it merges with a
cold front. Overall the intensity guidance has changed little this
cycle, and no change was made to the previous NHC intensity
prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 29.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 31.4N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 34.2N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 37.6N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 41.1N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 48.8N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 56.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 062031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 50.0W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 50.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph
(9 km/h). A significantly faster north to north-northeast motion is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 062030
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
2100 UTC MON NOV 06 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 50.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 50.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 50.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.4N 49.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 34.2N 49.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.6N 48.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 41.1N 46.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 48.8N 37.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 56.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 061606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.11.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 50.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.11.2017 0 29.5N 50.9W 1015 24
0000UTC 07.11.2017 12 30.0N 51.1W 1014 27
1200UTC 07.11.2017 24 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061606


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 061606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.11.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 50.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.11.2017 29.5N 50.9W WEAK
00UTC 07.11.2017 30.0N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061606


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 061433
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

The depression has a sheared appearance with the low-level center
exposed to the west of the mid-level center and the convective
bands. A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that maximum winds
are near 30 kt, which is also in agreement with a Dvorak
classification from TAFB. Based on these data, the initial wind
speed is held at 30 kt.

The depression has slowed down and turned to the left, with the
initial motion estimated to be 015/3 kt. A faster north to
north-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days
while the system moves in the flow on the west side of a mid-level
ridge. Thereafter, an even faster motion toward the northeast is
forecast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies. The model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC
track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one to come
into agreement with the latest consensus models.

Although the environment ahead of the depression is not expected to
be particularly conducive for strengthening as a tropical system,
baroclinic enhancements and the expected faster forward speed
should cause the cyclone to gain some strength during the next
couple of days. The global models agree that the cyclone should
merge with a cold front by Wednesday evening, causing extratropical
transition. The extratropical cyclone is expected to gradually
weaken and dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The guidance has trended a
little higher this cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast follows
that trend and lies near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 29.5N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 30.8N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 33.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 37.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 41.4N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 51.0N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 57.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 50.4W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 50.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A significantly faster north to north-northeast motion is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 061432
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
1500 UTC MON NOV 06 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 50.4W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 50.4W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.8N 50.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 33.6N 49.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.3N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 41.4N 46.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 51.0N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 57.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 50.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 060849
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

GOES-16 night-time visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate
that convection associated with the well-defined low pressure
system located over the central Atlantic Ocean has increased and
become better organized during the past several hours. Satellite
intensity estimates were T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB at
0600Z. Since that time, however, a burst of deep convection has
developed over the previously partially exposed low-level
circulation center, which had been located near the northwestern
edge of the large convective cloud mass. Given that the center is
now located farther into the deep convection, NHC objective
intensity estimates have increased to more than 30 kt. As a result,
advisories have been initiated on the nineteenth tropical depression
of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate is 095/05 kt. The center of the cyclone
has been moving slowly eastward within the larger cyclonic gyre for
the past 12-18 hours, most likely due to the deep convection being
sheared toward the east. However, the latest NHC model guidance
indicates that the recent eastward motion should be short-lived
since the larger gyre is forecast to begin moving northward within
the next 6 h or so. As the wind field contracts over the next 24
hours, the motion of the cyclone should stabilize and become less
erratic as deep-layer southerly steering flow becomes established
on the west side of a large-scale subtropical ridge. By 48 h and
beyond, southwesterly flow ahead of mid-latitude trough is forecast
to accelerate the system toward the northeast through 96 h. By
120 h, the cyclone should have merged with a frontal system or have
dissipated over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The
official track forecast lies close to a blend of the TVCN, TVCX,
and GFEX consensus track models.

The cyclone is currently embedded within a low-shear environment in
the col region between a weakening upper-level low located to the
southeast and a trough to the northwest. The vertical wind shear is
forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to remain relatively low for
the next 36 h or so, which should allow for some modest
strengthening to occur despite sea-surface temperatures only being
around 25-26 deg C. Temperatures of 2-3 deg C colder-than-normal
in the mid- and upper-levels of the troposphere, however, should
act to offset the cooler SSTs, providing sufficient instability to
allow for deep convection to continue to develop. Model soundings
and the FSU Cyclone Phase-Space diagram indicate that extratropical
transition should begin shortly after 48 h when the cyclone reaches
about 40N latitude and moves over much cooler water. The NHC
intensity closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 28.9N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 30.0N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 35.4N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 39.4N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 49.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 59.0N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060841
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 50.2W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 50.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). However, a
turn toward the north-northeast or north is expected later today,
and this general motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 060837
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
0900 UTC MON NOV 06 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 50.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 50.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 50.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 30.0N 49.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.0N 49.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.4N 49.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 39.4N 48.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 49.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 59.0N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 50.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART