Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CEBILE-18
Off-shore

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GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-02-08 00:31

WTIO22 FMEE 080016
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 048/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 08/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.2 S / 79.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
25.9 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2018/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
26.5 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY EMITTED BY THE RSMC ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. IT
WILL BE MONITORED IN THE AWIO20 AND FQIO20 FMEE BULLETINS.=

2018-02-07 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 071814
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 047/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 80.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
26.1 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
26.2 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-07 12:16

WTIO20 FMEE 071204
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 046/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 80.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
26.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
26.3 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-07 06:16

WTIO20 FMEE 070603
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 045/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 81.4 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
26.6 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
26.3 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-06 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 061813
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 043/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 82.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
27.0 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
26.7 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-06 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 061218
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 042/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 81.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
26.9 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
26.9 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-06 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 060617
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 82.0 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
26.6 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
26.7 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-06 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 060008
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 81.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 MN FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
26.1 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
26.6 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 18:16

WTIO20 FMEE 051809
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 81.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
25.9 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
26.7 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 051213
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 81.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 225 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
25.2 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
26.5 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTXS51 PGTW 041500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180204140323
2018020412 07S CEBILE 035 01 150 07 SATL 035
T000 209S 0802E 060 R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 221S 0807E 050 R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 150 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 236S 0810E 045 R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 249S 0810E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 261S 0808E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 273S 0797E 035 R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 278S 0776E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 20.9S 80.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 80.2E

2018-02-05 07:31

WTXS51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180204140323
2018020412 07S CEBILE 035 01 150 07 SATL 035
T000 209S 0802E 060 R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 221S 0807E 050 R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 150 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 236S 0810E 045 R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 249S 0810E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 261S 0808E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 273S 0797E 035 R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 278S 0776E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 20.9S 80.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 80.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.1S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.6S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.9S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.3S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.8S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 80.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 941 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020206 170S 756E 115
0718020206 170S 756E 115
0718020206 170S 756E 115
0718020212 174S 757E 110
0718020212 174S 757E 110
0718020212 174S 757E 110
0718020218 178S 760E 110
0718020218 178S 760E 110
0718020218 178S 760E 110
0718020300 181S 764E 105
0718020300 181S 764E 105
0718020300 181S 764E 105
0718020306 184S 771E 95
0718020306 184S 771E 95
0718020306 184S 771E 95
0718020312 187S 778E 85
0718020312 187S 778E 85
0718020312 187S 778E 85
0718020318 191S 786E 75
0718020318 191S 786E 75
0718020318 191S 786E 75
0718020400 196S 793E 70
0718020400 196S 793E 70
0718020400 196S 793E 70
0718020406 203S 798E 65
0718020406 203S 798E 65
0718020406 203S 798E 65
0718020412 209S 802E 60
0718020412 209S 802E 60

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 041216

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/5/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.8 S / 80.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :83 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SO: 410 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SO: 300 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 07/02/2018 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 07/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2018 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 09/02/2018 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE CENTRE EST APPARU COMPLETEMENT
EXPOSE SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
(ESTIME A 25/30 KT A 0600Z PAR LE CIMSS). LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
RESTE LOCALISEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST AVEC DES SOMMETS DE MOINS EN
MOINS FROIDS.

CEBILE POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.
A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, CETTE DORSALE SE RENFORCE ET INFLECHIT LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, ALORS QUE LA SITUATION
DE MOYENNE /BASSE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENT TRA S MERIDIENNE, UNE DORSALE
SE DEVELOPPE AU SUD DU SYTEME. CETTE DORSALE VA ALORS RALENTIR LE
SYSTEME PUIS ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN ACCA LA RANT
JEUDI.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE EST DEFAVORABLE. LE CONTENU
OCEANIQUE EST FAIBLE. EN ALTITUDE, LE FLUX EST RAPIDE A L'AVANT D'UN
PROFOND TALWEG ET GENERE UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. SEULE UNE FORTE CONFLUENCE EN ENTREE DU JET
LOCALISEE AU SUD IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME GENERE UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE QUI SOUTIENT LA CONVECTION PROFONDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD DU SYSTEME. AUSSI, CEBILE EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR MAIS CONSERVER UN
COEUR CHAUD DEVENANT DE MOINS EN MOINS PROFOND. DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI
A MERCREDI, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE DA CALE AU DESSUS DU SYSTA ME.
AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LA CONVECTION POURRAIT SE DA VELOPPER
PRES DU CENTRE. MAIS, MERCREDI SOIR, LA REPRISE D'UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD A L'ARRIA RE DU TALWEG PUIS L'ARRIVA E
D'UNE DORSALE DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT AMORCER LE COMBLEMENT DU
SYSTEME.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 040610

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/5/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 79.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :83 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SO: 410 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 330 SO: 300 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 120


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/02/2018 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 07/02/2018 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2018 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 09/02/2018 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX=000 , DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0 CI=4.0-

LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES MONTRENT UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSE SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT
FORT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESTE LOCALISEE
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST AVEC DES SOMMETS DE MOINS EN MOINS FROIDS.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST EN ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION SATCON ET LA
RECENTE PASSE PARTIELLE ASCAT DE 0331Z.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 12H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA BAISSE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR VERS 700-600 HPA OU UNE DORSALE SE RECONSTRUIT A L'EST ET
AU SUD DU SYSTEME VA RE-ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD
DEVRAIT MEME GENER CETTE PROGRESSION A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE OU
CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS VEGETER QUELQUES JOURS ENTRE 25S ET 30S SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE EST DEFAVORABLE. LE CONTENU
OCEANIQUE EST FAIBLE. EN ALTITUDE, LE FLUX EST RAPIDE A L'AVANT D'UN
PROFOND TALWEG ET GENERE UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. SEULE UNE FORTE CONFLUENCE EN ENTREE DU JET
LOCALISEE AU SUD IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME GENERE UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE QUI SOUTIENT LA CONVECTION PROFONDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD DU SYSTEME. AUSSI, CEBILE EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR MAIS CONSERVER UN
COEUR CHAUD MAIS DE MOINS EN MOINS PROFOND. DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A
MERCREDI, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE DA CALE AU DESSUS DU SYSTA ME. AVEC
LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LA CONVECTION POURRAIT SE DA VELOPPER PRES
DU CENTRE. MAIS, MERCREDI SOIR, LA REPRISE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR SUD A L'ARRIA RE DU TALWEG PUIS L'ARRIVA E D'UNE DORSALE
DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT AMORCER LE COMBLEMENT DU SYSTEME.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 040026

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 79.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :70 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 200 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 07/02/2018 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2018 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 09/02/2018 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.5-

LA PHASE DE DESTRUCTURATION SEMBLE ENFIN SE CONCRETISER, AVEC UNE
CONFIGURATION QUI EVOLUE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE
MEME SI UN OEIL EN ALTITUDE COMPLETEMENT DEPHASE AVEC LA CIRCULATION
DE BASSES COUCHES PERSISTE ENCORE SUR LES IMAGES SATELITE.
LA DERNIERE MICRO-ONDE RECUE POUR CE BULLETIN (SSMIS DE 2236Z) MONTRE
QUE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE SE MAINTIENT BIEN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
L'AFFAIBLISEMENT RESTE LENT EN RAISON DE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE QUI
PERSISTE AU SUD, ET LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME QUI REDUIT POUR LE
MOMENT LA CISAILLEMENT RELATIF. NEANMOINS LE SYSTEME ARRIVE SUR DES
EAUX AU POTENTIAL ENERGETIQUE REDUIT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 12H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA BAISSE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR VERS 700-600 HPA OU UNE DORSALE SE RECONSTRUIT A L'EST ET
AU SUD DU SYSTEME VA RE-ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD
DEVRAIT MEME GENER CETTE PROGRESSION A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE OU
CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS VEGETER QUELQUES JOURS ENTRE 25S ET 30S SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE NE RESTE PLUS VRAIMENT
FAVORABLE ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU MINIMUM LENT EST ATTENDU AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 36H. EN INTERACTION CROISSANTE AVEC LE JET D'OUEST
SUBTROPICAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENSUITE ENTAMER SA TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE MAIS EN GARDANT UN
COEUR CHAUD SUFFISAMMENT SYMETRIQUE POUR AVOIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES
MIXTES (PHASE POST-TROPICALE). LES DERNIERES SORTIES DE MODELES
NUMERIQUES SUGGERENT QU'A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INTERACTION AVEC UNE
ANOMALIE DE TROPOPAUSE DYNAMIQUE POURRAIT RENFORCER TEMPORAIREMENT LA
CIRCULATION. EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ASSOCIE AUX ANOMALIES, S'EVACUE VERS L'EST, PLACANT LE SYSTEME
GRADUELLEMENT DANS LA ZONE DES SUBSIDENCES SYNOPTIQUES. UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE ET PROBABLEMENT DEFINITIVE, EST ALORS
ATTENDUE.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 031827

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 78.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :70 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 200 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 06/02/2018 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2018 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 08/02/2018 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=4.5+

LA PHASE DE DESTRUCTURATION SEMBLE ENFIN SE CONCRETISER SUR LES
TOUTES DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION QUI EVOLUE
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE MEME SI UN OEIL EN
ALTITUDE COMPLETEMENT DEPHASE AVEC LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
PERSISTE ENCORE SUR LES IMAGES SATELITE.
LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES RECUES POUR CE BULLETIN (SSSMIS DE 1309Z ET
DE 1341Z) MONTRENT UNE SIGNATURE QUI A GLOBALEMENT PEU EVOLUE DEPUIS
CE MATIN. L'INTENSITE A DONC FAIBLIT QUE LEGEREMENT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 12H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA BAISSE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR VERS 700-600 HPA OU UNE DORSALE SE RECONSTRUIT A L'EST ET
AU SUD DU SYSTEME VA RE-ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD
DEVRAIT MEME GENER CETTE PROGRESSION A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE OU
CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS VEGETER QUELQUES JOURS ENTRE 25S ET 30S.

LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT ET LA BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT RELATIF
INDUITE A PROBABLEMENT LIMITER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT AUJOURD'HUI. LE
CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE NE RESTE PLUS VRAIMENT FAVORABLE
ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU MINIMUM LENT EST ATTENDU AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H. EN INTERACTION CROISSANTE AVEC LE JET D'OUEST
SUBTROPICAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENSUITE ENTAMER SA TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE MAIS EN GARDANT UN
COEUR CHAUD SUFFISAMMENT SYMETRIQUE POUR AVOIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES
MIXTES (PHASE POST-TROPICALE). LES DERNIERES SORTIES DE MODELES
NUMERIQUES SUGGERENT QU'A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INTERACTION AVEC UNE
ANOMALIE DE TROPOPAUSE DYNAMIQUE POURRAIT RENFORCER TEMPORAIREMENT LA
CIRCULATION. EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ASSOCIE AUX ANOMALIES, S'EVACUE VERS L'EST, PLACANT LE SYSTEME
GRADUELLEMENT DANS LA ZONE DES SUBSIDENCES SYNOPTIQUES. UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE ET PROBABLEMENT DEFINITIVE, EST ALORS
ATTENDUE.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 031307

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 77.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :69 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SO: 330 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SO: 130 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 08/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0 CI=4.5+

LA PHASE DE DESTRUCTURATION QUI SEMBLAIT S'AMORCER CE MATIN NE S'EST
PAS CONFIRMEE CET APRES-MIDI. CEBILE A MAINTENU UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE STATIONNAIRE AVEC UN OEIL DECHIQUETTE EN VISIBLE ET
FINALEMENT INTERMITTANT EN IR. LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES RECUES POUR
CE BULLETIN (AMSR2 DE 0728Z ET AMSUB N19 DE 1045Z) MONTRENT UNE
SIGNATURE QUI A PEU EVOLUE DEPUIS CE MATIN. L'INTENSITE EST DONC
INCHANGEE.

LE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SEMBLE AVOIR COMMENCE ET DEVRAIT SE
MAINTENIR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA BAISSE
DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR VERS 700-600 HPA OU UNE DORSALE SE
RECONSTRUIT A L'EST ET AU SUD DU SYSTEME VA RE-ORIENTER LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. LA RECONSTRUCTION
DE LA DORSALE AU SUD DEVRAIT MEME GENER CETTE PROGRESSION A PARTIR DU
MILIEU DE SEMAINE OU CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS VEGETER QUELQUES JOURS
ENTRE 25S ET 30S.

LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT ET LA BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT RELATIF
INDUITE A PROBABLEMENT LIMITER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT AUJOURD'HUI. LE
CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE NE RESTE PLUS VRAIMENT FAVORABLE
ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU MINIMUM LENT EST ATTENDU AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H. EN INTERACTION CROISSANTE AVEC LE JET D'OUEST
SUBTROPICAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENSUITE ENTAMER SA TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE MAIS EN GARDANT UN
COEUR CHAUD SUFFISAMMENT SYMETRIQUE POUR AVOIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES
MIXTES (PHASE POST-TROPICALE). LES DERNIERES SORTIES DE MODELES
NUMERIQUES SUGGERENT QU'A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INTERACTION AVEC UNE
ANOMALIE DE TROPOPAUSE DYNAMIQUE POURRAIT RENFORCER TEMPORAIREMENT LA
CIRCULATION. EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ASSOCIE AUX ANOMALIES, S'EVACUE VERS L'EST, PLACANT LE SYSTEME
GRADUELLEMENT DANS LA ZONE DES SUBSIDENCES SYNOPTIQUES. UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE ET PROBABLEMENT DEFINITIVE, EST ALORS
ATTENDUE.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 030658

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 77.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SO: 330 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2018 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 08/02/2018 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0 CI=5.0- (CI 00Z CORRIGE A 5.0-)

CEBILE COMMENCE A SOUFFRIR SENSIBLEMENT. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SE
DETERIORE AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL QUI EST ENTRAIN DE S'EFFACER
EN IR RENFORCE. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE CE MATIN METTENT EN
EVIDENCE UN DECALAGE EN HAUSSE ENTRE L'OEIL VU EN IR SUR MSG-1 (PLUS
A L'EST) ET L'OEIL DE BASSES COUCHES VU EN 37 GHZ, QUI SEMBLE ALLER
AU-DELA DE L'EFFET DE PARALLAXE SUR MSG-1. IL S'AGIT
VRAISEMBLABLEMENT D'UNE CONSEQUENCE DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST. LA PRESENCE COMBINEE D'AIR SEC DANS L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVRAIT
AUSSI ACCENTUER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES 12H.

L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 75 KT POUR RESTER PROCHE DU CONSENSUS DES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES QUI EST AUTOUR DE 80 KT (VENTS 10 MIN) A
0349Z.

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE CE MATIN ONT PERMIS DE RELOCALISER UN PEU
PLUS AU NORD LA POSITION DE 00Z CE QUI MONTRE QUE LE SYSTEME EST
MAINTENANT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST QUI DEVRAIT
GRADUELLEMENT S'ORIENTER AU SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD PERMET DE DA CALER VERS
L'EST LES HAUTES PRESSIONS ET ORIENTE AINSI LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE
PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD MAIS SANS REELLE ACCELERATION. LA
RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS GA NER CETTE
PROGRESSION VERS LE SUD A PARTIR DE JEUDI COMME LE LAISSE A PENSER LA
DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU MODELE IFS.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE N'EST VRAIMENT PLUS FAVORABLE
A UN MAINTIENT DE L'INTENSITE POUR LE CYCLONE CEBILE. LE DEFERLEMENT
D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME A MIS EN PLACE D'UNE
CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST QUI PERTURBE LA CONVECTION. CEBILE
S'AFFAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET CONTINUERA
CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVANT D'ENTAMER SA TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE AVEC LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD ET S'ELOIGNANT DU CENTRE.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 041216

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/5/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 80.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 410 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 300 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/02/07 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/08 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/02/09 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CENTER HAS APPEARED FULLY EXPOSED DUE TO
THE STRONG NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BUT WITH WARMER AND WARMER TOP
CLOUDS.

CEBILE KEEPS ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK STEERING BY THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED ON NORTHEASTERN OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TOMORROW, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS RIDGE.
FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIAN, A
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS A CONSEQUENCE,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND RE-ORIENT ITS TRACK WESTWARD FROM
THURSDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOW UNFAVORABLE. OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT IS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RAPID AHEAD A TROUGH AND
GENERATES A STRONG NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ONLY A STRONG
CONFLUENCE IN ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM SUPPLIES A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT SUSTAINS DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SO, CEBILE IS
FORECASTED TO WEAKEN BUT IT SHOULD CONSERVE A WARM CORE BECOMING LESS
AND LESS DEEP. TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
ABOVE THE CIRCULATION. THE DECREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COULD ALLOW
THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER. BUT, WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN
INCREASING SOUTHERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BEHING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL RIDGE SHOULD INITIATE THE
FILLING OF CEBILE.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 040610

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/5/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 79.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 410 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 330 SW: 300 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 120


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/02/07 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/08 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/02/09 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=000 , FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0-

THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERIES SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED
DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BUT WITH WARMER AND
WARMER TOP CLOUDS. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATION IS CONSISTENT WITH
SATCON ESTIMATION AND WITH THE LAST 0331Z PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH.

THE GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT
600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF
THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW
DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S TRACKING WESTWARDS.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOW UNFAVORABLE. OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT IS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RAPID AND GENERATES A STRONG
NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ONLY A STRONG CONFLUENCE IN
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
SUPPLIES A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT SUSTAINS DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SO, CEBILE IS FORECASTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT SHOULD KEEP A WARM CORE. TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT ABOVE THE CIRCULATION. THE DECREASING
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTER. BUT, WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN INCREASING SOUTHERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR BEHING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICAL RIDGE SHOULD INITIATE THE FILLING OF CEBILE.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 040026

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 79.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE
DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :70 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/08 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/09 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5-

THE WEAKENING TREND SEEMS TO BE GOING ON , WITH A PATTERN BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY SHEAR STRUCTURE, EVEN IF AN EYE DISCONNECTED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALWAYS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
LATEST MW IMAGERY AVAILABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY (SSMIS AT 2236Z) SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE. THE WEAKENING TREND
REMAINS SLOW AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD IN THE SOUTH AND THE
FORWARD MOTION INDUCES FOR THE MOMENT LOWERING OF THE RELATIVE SHEAR.
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS ARRIVING OVER WATERS OF REDUCE ENERGETIC
POTENTIAL.

THE GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT
600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF
THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW
DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S TRACKING WESTWARDS.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS STILL NOT FAVORABLE AND AT LEAST A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH AN
INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE JOST, CEBILE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RATHER SYMMETRICAL
WARM-CORE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SO CEBILE WILL EXHIBIT MIXED CHARACTERISTICS (POST-TROPICAL PHASES).
LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY,
INTERACTION WITH DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE ANOMALIES MAY STRENGTHEN
TEMPORARILY THE CIRCULATION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALIES SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF ENHANCED SYNOPTICAL SUBSIDENCE. A
STRONGER AND LIKELY DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THAT
TIME.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 031827

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 78.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :70 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/07 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/08 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5+

THE WEAKENING TREND SEEMS TO BEGIN IN THE VERY LAST HOURS, WITH A
PATTERN BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY SHEAR STRUCTURE, EVEN IF AN EYE
DISCONECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALWAYS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
LATEST MW IMAGERY AVAILABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY (SSMIS AT 1309Z AND
1341Z) SHOW A MW SIGNATURE THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT HAS THEREFORE WEAKENED VERY SLIGHTLY.

THE GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT
600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF
THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW
DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S.

THE ACCELERATING FORWARD MOTION AND THE INDUCED LOWERING OF THE
RELATIVE SHEAR MAY HAVE FINALLY PLAY TO LIMIT THE WEAKENING TREND
TODAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS STILL NOT
FAVORABLE AND AT LEAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE JOST, CEBILE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
RATHER SYMMETRICAL WARM-CORE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DURING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD SO CEBILE WILL EXHIBIT MIXED CHARACTERISTICS
(POST-TROPICAL PHASES). LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FROM
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, INTERACTION WITH DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE ANOMALIES
MAY STRENGTHEN TEMPORARILY THE CIRCULATION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALIES SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF ENHANCED SYNOPTICAL
SUBSIDENCE. A STRONGER AND LIKELY DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 031307

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 77.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :69 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 330 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SW: 130 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/07 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/08 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5+

THE WEAKENING TREND SEEN THIS MORNING HAS STOPPED. CEBILE HAS
MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE ON VIS IMAGERY AND AN INTERMITTENT EYE HAS
POPPED UP ON EIR IMAGERY. LATEST MW IMAGERY AVAILABLE FOR THIS
ADVISORY (AMSR2 AT 0728Z AND AMSUB N19 AT 1045Z) SHOW A MW SIGNATURE
THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
IS THEREFORE UNCHANGED.

THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN AND THIS GENERAL
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM MONDAY,
A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT 600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO
BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK
SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY
SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S.

THE ACCELERATING FORWARD MOTION AND THE INDUCED LOWERING OF THE
RELATIVE SHEAR MAY HAVE FINALLY PLAY TO LIMIT THE WEAKENING TREND
TODAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS STILL NOT
FAVORABLE AND AT LEAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE JOST, CEBILE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
RATHER SYMMETRICAL WARM-CORE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DURING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD SO CEBILE WILL EXHIBIT MIXED CHARACTERISTICS
(POST-TROPICAL PHASES). LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FROM
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, INTERACTION WITH DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE ANOMALIES
MAY STRENGTHEN TEMPORARILY THE CIRCULATION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALIES SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF ENHANCED SYNOPTICAL
SUBSIDENCE. A STRONGER AND LIKELY DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 030658

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 77.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 330 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/07 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/08 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0- (CI 00Z CORRECTED AT 5.0-)

CEBILE IS SUFFERING: THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED WITH AN EYE
PATTERN NO MORE EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. MW DATA OF THIS MORNING SHOW
STRONG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EYE AS SEEN WITH MSG-1 IN IR (MORE TO
THE EAST) AND THE LOW LEVEL EYE SEEN ON 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE
DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO GO BEYOND THE PARALLAX ASSOCIATED WITH MSG-1 AND
IS PROBABLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT. DRY
ENVIRONMENTAL AIR WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE WEAKENING TREND
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT AT 75 KT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 0349Z NEAR 80 KT (10 MIN
WINDS).

MW OF THIS MORNING WAS ALSO USEFUL TO RELOCATE THE CENTER NORTHWARD
AND TO ASSESS A SLOW EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD MOTION. THIS MOTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEND SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM MONDAY,
THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH ALLOWS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST THE
HIGH PRESSURES AND THUS REORIENTED THE CEBILE'S TRACK FURTHER
SOUTHWARD BUT WITHOUT REAL ACCELERATION. THE REBUILT OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE COULD, HOWEVER, DISTURB THIS PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD FROM
THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY FOR THE CEBILE CYCLONE. ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM ALLOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. CEBILE'S
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER
COOLER SST, AND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING BEFORE STARTING ITS
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEWT WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, FAR FROM THE CENTER.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 050607
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 81.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
24.2 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
25.6 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 050021
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 81.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 185 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 12 UTC:
23.8 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
25.2 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 041813
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CEBILE) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 80.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 185 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 06 UTC:
23.2 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
24.6 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ASCAT DATA AT 16Z HAS SHOWN THAT WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 041212
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 80.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 00 UTC:
22.3 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 040609
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 79.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 18 UTC:
21.8 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 06 UTC:
23.1 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 040101 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 79.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 12 UTC:
20.9 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 00 UTC:
22.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 040019
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 79.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 12 UTC:
20.9 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 00 UTC:
22.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 031828
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 78.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 18 UTC:
21.7 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 031224
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 77.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 00 UTC:
19.9 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 12 UTC:
21.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 030622
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 77.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 18 UTC:
19.0 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
WINDS RADII HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO ASCAT-B DATA AT 0351Z.
00Z POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED AT 17.9S AND 76.3E.=

2018-02-03 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 030300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180203011540
2018020300 07S CEBILE 029 01 130 05 SATL 030
T000 181S 0764E 105 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD
145 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 187S 0775E 090 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD
140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 196S 0787E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 206S 0797E 065 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD
130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 219S 0804E 060 R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
185 NE QD 185 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 244S 0810E 050 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
185 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 266S 0806E 045 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 085 NW QD
T120 285S 0794E 040 R034 145 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2018-02-03 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180203011540
2018020300 07S CEBILE 029 01 130 05 SATL 030
T000 181S 0764E 105 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 187S 0775E 090 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 196S 0787E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 206S 0797E 065 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 219S 0804E 060 R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 185 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 244S 0810E 050 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 266S 0806E 045 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 085 NW QD
T120 285S 0794E 040 R034 145 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 76.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.6S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.6S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.5S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 76.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 698 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020206 170S 756E 115
0718020206 170S 756E 115
0718020206 170S 756E 115
0718020212 174S 757E 110
0718020212 174S 757E 110
0718020212 174S 757E 110
0718020218 178S 760E 110
0718020218 178S 760E 110
0718020218 178S 760E 110
0718020300 181S 764E 105
0718020300 181S 764E 105
0718020300 181S 764E 105

2018-02-03 01:01

WTIO31 FMEE 030024

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 76.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2018 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 08/02/2018 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE EN OEIL DE
CEBILE A ETE TRES FLUCTUANTE. SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST
-NORD-OUEST, LA CONVECTION DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST A QUASIMENT DISPARUE
SUR LES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. CELA EST AUSSI REMARQUABLE SUR LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES DE 2331UTC. CETTE CONTRAINTE CONTRIBUE A DIMINUER
L'INTENSITE ET CEBILE SE SITUE MAINTENANT DANS UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PLUS LONG TERME.

LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE A PRIS LA MAIN SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CYCLONE EN L'ORIENTANT VERS LE SUD-EST. LE
DEPLACEMENT VA LEGEREMENT S'ACCELERER AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE DE
SAMEDI. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD PERMET DE DA
CALER VERS L'EST LES HAUTES PRESSIONS ET ORIENTE AINSI LA TRAJECTOIRE
DE CEBILE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD MAIS SANS REELLE ACCELERATION.
LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS GA NER
CETTE PROGRESSION VERS LE SUD A PARTIR DE JEUDI COMME LE LAISSE A
PENSER LA DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU MODELE IFS.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE N'EST VRAIMENT PLUS FAVORABLE
A UN MAINTIENT DE L'INTENSITE POUR LE CYCLONE CEBILE. LE DEFERLEMENT
D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME A MIS EN PLACE D'UNE
CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST QUI PERTURBE LA CONVECTION. CEBILE
S'AFFAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET CONTINUERA
CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVANT D'ENTAMER SA TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE A
PARTIR DE MARDI AVEC LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS DANS LE QUADRANT SUD ET
S'ELOIGNANT DU CENTRE.=

2018-02-03 01:01

WTIO30 FMEE 030024

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 76.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/08 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF CEBILE WAS VERY
FLUCTUATING. UNDER THE EFFECT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
CONSTRAINT, CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN AREA HAS QUASIALLY DISAPPEARED
IN INFRARED DATA. THIS IS ALSO REMARKABLE ON 2331 UTC MICROWAVE
IMAGES. THIS UPPER CONSTRAINT CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING INTENSITY AND
CEBILE IS NOW IN A LOWER-TERM PHASE OF WEAKENING.

THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TAKE NOW THE
CYCLONE TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE DISPLACEMENT WILL
SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE TODAY. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH AT
SOUTH ALLOWS TO MOVE EAST HIGH PRESSURES AND THUS ORIENTED THE
CEBILE'S TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD BUT WITHOUT REAL ACCELERATION. THE
RECONSTRUCTION OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE COULD, HOWEVER, DISTURB THIS
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD FROM THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED THE ENSEMBLIST
FORECAST OF THE IFS NUMERICAL MODEL.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY FOR THE CEBILE CYCLONE. ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM ALLOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. CEBILE'S
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER
COOLER SST, AND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING BEFORE STARTING ITS
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT, FAR FROM THE CENTER.=

2018-02-03 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 030005
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 76.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 12 UTC:
18.7 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-02 19:01

WTIO31 FMEE 021814

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 02/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 76.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/02/2018 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 07/02/2018 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0+

LA STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE EN OEIL DE CEBILE A REPRIS UNE MEILLEURE
ALLURE DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, PERMETTANT DE MAINTENIR VOIRE
AMELIORER LEGEREMENT SON INTENSITE. CEPENDANT, CEBILE SE SITUE
MAINTENANT DANS UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLIESSEMENT A PLUS LONG TERME. IL Y
A 6 HEURES, A 1200UTC, CEBILE EST PASSE AU PLUS PRES DE LA BOUEE
2301521 ,A 30MN AU NORD-EST. LA PRESSION MESUREE ETAIT DE 974.1HPA.

CEBILE A ENTAME SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST SUITE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE RENFORCEMENT ACTUEL
DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE VA PRENDRE EN MAIN LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
CYCLONE EN L'ORIENTANT VERS LE SUD-EST ET EN L'ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD PERMET DE DA CALER
VERS L'EST LES HAUTES PRESSIONS ET ORIENTE AINSI LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
CEBILE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD MAIS SANS REELLE ACCELERATION.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE N'EST PLUS AVANTAGEUX POUR LE
CYCLONE CEBILE. LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME PERMET LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.
CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT, SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FRAA CHES ET ENTAMER SA TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE A PARTIR DE MARDI
AVEC DES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS S'ELOIGNANT DU CENTRE, DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD.=

2018-02-02 19:01

WTIO30 FMEE 021814

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 76.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/07 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

THE EYE PATTERN OF CEBILE IS MORE PRETTY SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS, THIS
ALLOW TO MAINTAIN OR TO IMPROVE ITS INTENSITY SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER,
CEBILE IS NOW IN A LONG-TERM PHASE OF WEAKENING. 6 HOURS AGO, AT
1200UTC, CEBILE IS PAST NEAR BUOY 2301521, 30 NM NORTHEAST. THE
MEASURED PRESSURE WAS 974.1HPA.

CEBILE BEGIN ITS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE IT SLIGHTLY. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF
A TROUGH AT SOUTH ALLOWS TO MOVE EAST HIGH PRESSURES AND THUS
ORIENTED THE CEBILE'S TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD BUT WITHOUT REAL
ACCELERATION.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NO LONGER ADVANTAGEOUS FOR THE
CEBILE CYCLONE. ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWS
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST
TO DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST, AND START ITS
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FAR
FROM THE CENTER, IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.=

2018-02-02 18:16

WTIO20 FMEE 021804
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 02/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 76.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 06 UTC:
18.5 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-02 13:16

WTXS51 PGTW 020900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180202080653
2018020206 07S CEBILE 026 01 190 05 SATL 020
T000 170S 0756E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 177S 0760E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD
160 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 182S 0768E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD
145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 189S 0781E 095 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD
145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 199S 0793E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 225S 0810E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD
160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 247S 0810E 050 R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 278S 0809E 045 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E

2018-02-02 13:16

WTXS51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180202080653
2018020206 07S CEBILE 026 01 190 05 SATL 020
T000 170S 0756E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 177S 0760E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 182S 0768E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 189S 0781E 095 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 199S 0793E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 225S 0810E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 247S 0810E 050 R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 278S 0809E 045 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.2S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.9S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.5S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020206 170S 756E 115
0718020206 170S 756E 115
0718020206 170S 756E 115

2018-02-02 13:16

WTXS31 PGTW 020900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-02-02 13:16

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.2S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.9S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.5S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 60 NM EYE AND WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE IN THE 0202044Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B PASS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
STILL WELL ORGANIZED, THE EIR LOOP SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW
END OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OF T6.0
(115 KNOTS) FROM KNES TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE
WEAKENING TREND: BOTH FIXES HAVE DECREASED IN CURRENT INTENSITY AND
FORECAST T-NUMBER FROM THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS
(5-15 KNOTS), MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES (28-29
DEG C), AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE
NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WANING, WITH TC 07S ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS AND LOWER SSTS AFTER TAU 48. TC 07S
WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120.
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS CAPTURE THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTERN TRACK IN THE
NEAR TERM, WITH A LATER POLEWARD TURN, WITH MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT
IN SPEED AND SPREAD IN LATER TAUS. HWRF IS A PARTICULAR EASTERN
OUTLIER AND MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY OF TC 07S LONGER THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS.
IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//

2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO31 FMEE 021218

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 02/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 75.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 07/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CEBILE A POURSUIVI SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AVEC UN OEIL DEVENANT PLUS LARGE ET ALLONGE.
CETTE VARIATION POURRAIT ETRE LA CONSEQUENCE D'UN RETOUR SUR DES EAUX
A MOINDRE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE D'APRES LES DONNEES MERCATOR ET
L'ENROULEMENT D'AIR SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD.
LA PASSE AMSU DE 1057Z CONFIRME CETTE TENDANCE AVEC UN MUR OUVERT
DANS LE QUADRANT NORD.

CEBILE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD A SUD-SUD-EST,
SUITE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LA NUIT
PROCHAINE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD, EST PREVUE ATTIRER
CEBILE, L'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER. UNE
FAIBLE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE PROGRESSIVEMENT
AUJOURD'HUI ET SE RENFORCER SENSIBLEMENT SAMEDI AVEC LE DEFERLEMENT
D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR, SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAA CHES. LUNDI AVEC LA PROXIMITE
D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE, UNE TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE DE L'OCEAN
INFERIEURE A 26 DEGRES CELSIUS ET LA VENTILATION DU COEUR CHAUD
D'ALTITUDE AVEC L'AIR SEC ENVIRONMENTAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA
PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=

2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO31 FMEE 020633

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 75.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 954 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 07/02/2018 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CEBILE A CONNU UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AVEC UN OEIL DEVENANT PLUS LARGE ET ALLONGE.
CETTE VARIATION POURRAIT ETRE LA CONSEQUENCE D'UN RETOUR SUR DES EAUX
A MOINDRE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE D'APRES LES DONNEES MERCATOR.
LES PASSES SSMIS DE 0047Z ET 0120Z CONFIRMENT CETTE AFFAIBLISSEMENT
AVEC UN MUR OUVERT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST.

CEBILE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD, SUITE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE SOIR AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD, EST PREVUE ATTIRER CEBILE,
L'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE
DEGRADER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST VA SE METTRE EN PLACE AUJOURD'HUI ET SE RENFORCER
SENSIBLEMENT SAMEDI AVEC LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A
L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR, SUR DES EAUX
PLUS FRAA CHES. LUNDI AVEC LA PROXIMITE D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE,
UNE TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE DE L'OCEAN INFERIEURE A 26 DEGRES CELSIUS
ET LA VENTILATION DU COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE AVEC L'AIR SEC
ENVIRONMENTAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISAT
ION.=

2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO30 FMEE 021218

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 75.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/07 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE IS GOING ON WEAKENING PHASE WITH A
EYE BECOMING LARGER AND ALONGATED.
THIS CHANGE MAY BE THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE ARRIVAL OVER WATERS WITH
LESS ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL ACCORDING TO MERCATOR DATA AND ALSO THE
WRAPPINF DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE. 1057Z AMSU SWATH
CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING WITH A OPEN EYEWALL IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.

CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, AFTER THE
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY NEXT NIGHT, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING A LITTLE. AT LONG RANGE, THE
ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT CEBILE AND THUS
INDUCE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT START DETERIORATING. A WEAK
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT IS SETTING UP PROGRESSIVELY TODAY
AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY WITH A ROSSBY WAVE
BREAKING, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST. ON MONDAY, WITH
AN UPPER ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY, THE BELOW 26 DEGREES SST AND THE
VENTING OF THE UPPER WARM CORE BY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR , CEBILE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=

2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO30 FMEE 020633

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 75.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE
DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 82.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/07 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE UNDERWENT A NEW WEAKENING PHASE WITH
A EYE BECOMING LARGER AND ALONGATED.
THIS CHANGE MAY BE THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE TEMPORARILY PASSAGE OVER
WATERS WITH LESS ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL ACCORDING TO MERCATOR DATA.
0047Z AND 0120Z SSMIS SWATH CONFIRM THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH A OPEN
EYEWALL IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY THIS EVENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING A LITTLE. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL
OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT CEBILE AND THUS INDUCE A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT SHOULD START DETERIORATING IN THE
NEXT HOURS. A WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT WILL SET UP
TODAY AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY WITH A ROSSBY WAVE
BREAKING, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST. ON MONDAY, WITH
AN UPPER ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY, THE BELOW 26 DEGREES SST AND THE
VENTING OF THE UPPER WARM CORE BY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR , CEBILE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=

2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO20 FMEE 021210
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 02/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 75.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 12 UTC:
18.8 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO20 FMEE 020628
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 02/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 954 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 75.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 18 UTC:
17.9 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 06 UTC:
18.5 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-02 02:31

WTXS51 PGTW 020300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180202015044
2018020200 07S CEBILE 025 01 200 05 SATL 015
T000 165S 0757E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 171S 0757E 120 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD
155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 178S 0763E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD
145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 185S 0774E 100 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD
145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 193S 0787E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 213S 0805E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD
160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 234S 0807E 050 R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 260S 0805E 040 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E

2018-02-02 02:31

WTXS51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180202015044
2018020200 07S CEBILE 025 01 200 05 SATL 015
T000 165S 0757E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 171S 0757E 120 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 178S 0763E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 185S 0774E 100 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 193S 0787E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 213S 0805E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 234S 0807E 050 R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 260S 0805E 040 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 75.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.5S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.3S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.4S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.0S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 75.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020200 165S 757E 120
0718020200 165S 757E 120

2018-02-02 02:31

WTXS31 PGTW 020300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 75.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-02-02 02:31

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 75.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.5S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.3S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.4S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.0S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 75.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH THE PREVIOUS
RAGGED EYE BECOMING VERY CLEAR AND INCREASING IN SIZE TO 55 NM. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 020021Z GPM
36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH AN INTENSE EYEWALL COMPLETELY
SURROUNDING THE CLEAR EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120
KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW, AND A SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 113 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM
REACHES LOCAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WHILE TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES
(28 DEG C) AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S HAS BEGUN ITS POLEWARD TURN AND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE
NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
ROBUST OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. BEYOND TAU 24
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE
SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW COMBINED
WITH DECREASING SSTS. TC 07S WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC
CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. THE
EUROPEAN MODELS AND CTCX REMAIN WESTERN OUTLIERS, WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST, WITH HWRF BEING
THE EASTERN OUTLIER, 470NM EAST OF THE ECMWF. THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND NEAR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST
TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//

2018-02-02 01:01

WTIO31 FMEE 020047

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 02/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 75.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 07/02/2018 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CEBILE A CONNU UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC LE RETOUR D'UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI EN IMAGERIE
IR. CETTE VARIATION POURRAIT ETRE LA CONSEQUENCE D'UN PASSAGE
TEMPORAIRE SUR DES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES D'APRES LES DONNEES MERCATOR. LA
PASSE SSMIS DE 2301Z CONFIRME CETTE AMELIORATION AVEC UN MUR A
NOUVEAU TRES BIEN DEFINI. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR UNE
MOYENNE DES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK. UNE BOUEE A ENVIRON 60KM DU
CENTRE A MESURE UNE PRESSION MINIMALE DE 977HPA A 23Z.

CEBILE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD, SUITE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE SOIR AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD, EST PREVUE ATTIRER CEBILE,
L'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE
DEGRADER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST VA SE METTRE EN PLACE AUJOURD'HUI ET SE RENFORCER
SENSIBLEMENT SAMEDI AVEC LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A
L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR, SUR DES EAUX
PLUS FRAA CHES. LUNDI AVEC LA PROXIMITE D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE,
UNE TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE DE L'OCEAN INFERIEURE A 26 DEGRES CELSIUS
ET LA VENTILATION DU COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE AVEC L'AIR SEC
ENVIRONMENTAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISAT
ION.=

2018-02-02 01:01

WTIO30 FMEE 020047

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 75.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE UNDERWENT A NEW DEEPENING PHASE WITH
A CLEAR EYE PATTERN BACK IN IR IMAGERY. THIS CHANGE MAY BE THE
CONSEQUENCE OF THE TEMPORARILY PASSAGE OVER WARMER WATERS ACCORDING
TO MERCATOR DATA. 2301Z SSMIS SWATH CONFIRM THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH A
WELL DEFINED EYEWALL. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A MEAN OF THE
LAST DVORAK ESTIMATES. A BUOY LOCATED AROUND 60KM FROM THE CENTER
MEASURED A MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE OF 977HPA AT 23Z.

CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY THIS EVENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING A LITTLE. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL
OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT CEBILE AND THUS INDUCE A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT SHOULD START DETERIORATING IN THE
NEXT HOURS. A WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT WILL SET UP
TODAY AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY WITH A ROSSBY WAVE
BREAKING, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST. ON MONDAY, WITH
AN UPPER ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY, THE BELOW 26 DEGREES SST AND THE
VENTING OF THE UPPER WARM CORE BY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR , CEBILE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=

2018-02-02 00:31

WTIO20 FMEE 020017
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 02/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 75.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 12 UTC:
17.6 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 00 UTC:
18.1 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-01 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 012100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201195556
2018020118 07S CEBILE 024 01 215 04 SATL 040
T000 160S 0759E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 230 SE QD
155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 167S 0756E 110 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 190 SE QD
155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 174S 0759E 100 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 180S 0768E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD
145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 187S 0782E 080 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
140 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 207S 0800E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 190 SE QD
135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 229S 0807E 050 R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 253S 0805E 045 R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 75.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

2018-02-01 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201195556
2018020118 07S CEBILE 024 01 215 04 SATL 040
T000 160S 0759E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 230 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 167S 0756E 110 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 174S 0759E 100 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 180S 0768E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 187S 0782E 080 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 207S 0800E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 229S 0807E 050 R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 253S 0805E 045 R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 75.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 75.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.4S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.0S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.7S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.7S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.9S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.3S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 75.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020106 155S 763E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 762E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020112 157S 761E 115
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110
0718020118 160S 759E 110

2018-02-01 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 012100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-02-01 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MUCH MORE RAGGED. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 1703 ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS
AND SUPPORTED BY THE ACCOMPANYING AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.8 (112 KNOTS). TC 07S HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A
POINT SOURCE AT 200MB AND HIGH SST VALUES. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST RECEDES TO THE WEST AND AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE
ON STORM MOTION AND DRIVE TC 07S TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
24 AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES TO THE NER. AFTER TAU
72 THE NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF TC 07S,
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN STORM MOTION AND A SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE
STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF OCEAN
SURFACE COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING. BEYOND TAU 12 HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES
INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE DISSIPATES AND IS REPLACED BY GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS PREDICTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR BY
AROUND TAU 120, HOWEVER NEW DATA INDICATES THAT THIS IS UNLIKELY.
NEAR TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE
OF A DEEP LAYER STR, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING IT OFF FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGHS AND THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, ALLOWING
TC 07S TO MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSITING OVER COOLER WATERS AT THIS POINT, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A SLOW DISSIPATION OVER WATER VICE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. ECMWF, THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE AND CTCX ARE THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIERS, SHOWING A STRONGER
INFLUENCE OF THE NER EXTENSION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST,
THOUGH THEY TOO AGREE ON THE GENERAL PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY TRACK BY
TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN
AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD AMONG
FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASED
SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z, AND 021500Z.//

2018-02-01 19:01

WTIO31 FMEE 011825

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 01/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 75.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 06/02/2018 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0- CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CEBILE A ADOPTE LE PLUS SOUVENT UNE
STRUCTURE EN OEIL ALLONGE. CETTE DETERIOTATION DE LA CONFIGUTATION
NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME EST VRAISEMBLABLEMENT DU A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC
DANS LA CIRCULATION INTERNE. LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1335Z MONTRE UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LA PARTIE NORD DU MUR. LE CISAILLEMENT EST A PRIORI
ENCORE FAIBLE SELON LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS.

CEBILE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST, SUITE
A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. DEMAIN SOIR AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD, EST PREVUE ATTIRER CEBILE,
L'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST VA SE
METTRE EN PLACE DEMAIN ET SE RENFORCER SENSIBLEMENT SAMEDI AVEC LE
DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. CEBILE DEVRAIT
ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR, SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAA CHES. LUNDI AVEC LA
PROXIMITE D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE, UNE TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE DE
L'OCEAN INFERIEURE A 26 DEGRES CELSIUS ET LA VENTILATION DU COEUR
CHAUD D'ALTITUDE AVEC L'AIR SEC ENVIRONMENTAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENTAMER
SA PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=

2018-02-01 19:01

WTIO30 FMEE 011825

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 75.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE STRUCTURE WAS MOST OF THE TIME AN
ELONGATED EYE. THIS DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD APTTERN IS APPARENTLY
THE CONSEQUENCE OF A DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE INNER CORE. 1335Z SSMIS
SWATH SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHEN EYEWALL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ACCORDING TO CIMSS STILL LOW.

CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY THE END OF TOMMORROW, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING A LITTLE. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL
OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT CEBILE AND THUS INDUCE A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT START DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT
HOURS. A WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT WILL SET UP
TOMORROW AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ROSSBY
WAVE BREAKING, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST. ON MONDAY, WITH
AN UPPER ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY, THE BELOW 26 DEGREES SST AND THE
VENTING OF THE UPPER WARM CORE BY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR , CEBILE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=

2018-02-01 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 011813
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 01/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 75.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 06 UTC:
17.1 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 18 UTC:
17.8 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-01 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 011500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-02-01 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED 18-NM EYE AND DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WOBBLING MOTION IN THE EYE
FEATURE AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 011108Z AMSU-B
PASS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO ERRATIC MOTION AND THE LIKELY TILTED
VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS.
ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 28C. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO STEERING INFLUENCES: ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING NER TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS, THE NER IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE
SOUTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND
HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE, TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY
TAU 120, CEBILE WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS THE
MID-LATITUDES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE
LEFT OUTLIER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT STORM
MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z, AND 021500Z.//

2018-02-01 14:16

WTXS51 PGTW 011500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201131740
2018020112 07S CEBILE 023 01 194 05 SATL 020
T000 159S 0761E 115 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 167S 0759E 115 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 175S 0760E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 180S 0765E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 187S 0777E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 205S 0804E 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD
155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 233S 0818E 070 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD
160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 261S 0823E 060 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 105 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-02-01 14:01

WTXS51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201131740
2018020112 07S CEBILE 023 01 194 05 SATL 020
T000 159S 0761E 115 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 167S 0759E 115 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 175S 0760E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 180S 0765E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 187S 0777E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 205S 0804E 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 233S 0818E 070 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 261S 0823E 060 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 105 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z,
AND 021500Z.//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020106 154S 762E 115
0718020106 154S 762E 115
0718020106 154S 762E 115
0718020109 156S 760E 115
0718020109 156S 760E 115
0718020109 156S 760E 115
0718020112 159S 761E 115
0718020112 159S 761E 115
0718020112 159S 761E 115

2018-02-01 12:46

WTIO31 FMEE 011220

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 01/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 76.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 956 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5 CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LORS DU RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE ET
EN LIEN AVEC L'INTRUSION POSSIBLE D'AIR SEC, LA CONVECTION A PRESENTE
DES FAIBLESSES. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES, LA CONVECTION
REPREND DE LA VIGUEUR AVEC UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF QUI SE RESTRUCTURE
PROGRESSIVEMENT MAIS DIFFICILEMENT.

APRES UNE COURTE PERIODE DE QUASI-STATIONNARITE, CEBILE REPREND SON
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST. CETTE ORIENTATION EST PLUS
PRECOCE QUE PREVUE, DECALANT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST PAR RAPPORT AU
RESEAU PRECEDENT. LE SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENANT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE QUI VA PROGRESSIVEMENT INDUIRE UNE
DIRECTION SUD-EST A CEBILE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SERA SUIVIE D'UNE
ACCELERATION GRADUELLE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN.

LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE RESTE FAVORABLE A UN LEGER
REGAIN D'INTENSITE JUSQU'A DEMAIN MI-JOURNEE, TOUTEFOIS LIMITE PAR LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC QUI A DEJA AFFECTE LA CONVECTION. SAMEDI, LE
DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA
RAPIDEMENT ET CONSIDERABLEMENT RENFORCER LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST PUIS NORD-OUEST. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAITRE
UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES EAUX DEVIENNENT
DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, D'APRES LES DONNEES
DU MODELE OCEANIQUE PSY4 DE MERCATOR-OCEAN. CEBILE ENTAMERA EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT
DE L'ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE.=

2018-02-01 12:46

WTIO30 FMEE 011220

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 76.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRESENT WEAKNESSES
IN CONNECTION WITH THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE AND THE POSSIBLE INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR. IN THE LATEST INFRARED DATA, CONVECTION STRENGTHENS WITH
A CONVICTVE RING THAT RESTRUCTURES PROGRESSIVELY, BUT DIFFICULTLY.

AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARITY, CEBILE MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD. THIS ORIENTATION IS EARLIER THAN FORECASTED,
SHIFTING THE TRACK EAST TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTED TRACK. THE SYSTEM
IS NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY INDUCE A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS ORIENTATION WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL ACCELERATION FROM TOMORROW.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT REMAINS FAVORABLE TO A SLIGHT
INTENSITY GAIN UNTIL TOMORROW MID-DAY, HOWEVER LIMITED BY THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR THAT HAS ALREADY AFFECTED CONVECTION. FROM
SATURDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTWERLY WINDSHEAR.
CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP, AS IT WILL ALSO TRACK
OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURES. LASTLY, CEBILE MAY THEN BEGIN
ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH.=

2018-02-01 12:16

WTIO20 FMEE 011205
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 01/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 956 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 76.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 MN IN THE EASTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 00 UTC:
16.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 12 UTC:
17.3 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-01 08:16

WTXS51 PGTW 010900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201071219
2018020106 07S CEBILE 022 01 270 04 SATL 015
T000 154S 0762E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 159S 0757E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 167S 0756E 110 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 173S 0760E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 180S 0769E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 199S 0797E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 223S 0811E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD
160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 252S 0818E 060 R050 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
185 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-02-01 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 010900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.9S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-02-01 08:01

WTXS51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201071219
2018020106 07S CEBILE 022 01 270 04 SATL 015
T000 154S 0762E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 159S 0757E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 167S 0756E 110 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 173S 0760E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 180S 0769E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 199S 0797E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 223S 0811E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 252S 0818E 060 R050 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.9S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.3S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.2S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z
IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020100 154S 766E 115
0718020106 154S 762E 115
0718020106 154S 762E 115
0718020106 154S 762E 115

2018-02-01 08:01

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.9S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.3S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.2S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 23-NM EYE AND DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 010433Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28C. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. IT IS NOW POISED TO
RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS AND ASSUMES
STEERING. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. AFTERWARD, AS
VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE, TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY TAU
120, CEBILE WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS THE
MID-LATITUDES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE
LEFT OUTLIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z,
020300Z AND 020900Z.//

2018-02-01 06:46

WTIO31 FMEE 010617

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 01/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 76.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=6.0-

APRES UNE PERIODE OU LA CONVECTION S'EST MAINTENUE, LES DERNIERES
IMAGES INFRAROUGE MONTRENT UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS L'ANNEAU
CONVECTIF. MALGRE CETTE FAIBLESSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, LA
CONTRACTION DE L'OEIL PERMET UNE ANALYSE DVORAK LEGEREMENT A LA
HAUSSE.

LE RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE SE MAINTIENT SUR LES SIX DERNIERES
HEURES. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX
CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. EN COURS DE
JOURNEE, LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT
PRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST
DEVENUE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE DEPUIS LES DERNIERS RESEAUX SUR LE VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-EST QUE PRENDRA CEBILE, SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION
GRADUELLE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN.

CEBILE EVOLUE ENCORE DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-PARFAIT AU NIVEAU DU
CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE
OCEANIQUE. UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE EST DONC ENCORE POSSIBLE
JUSQU'A DEMAIN MI-JOURNEE. CEPENDANT, L'AIR SEC QUI SEMBLE AFFECTER
ACTUELLEMENT LA CONVECTION POURRAIT LIMITER CE LEGER REGAIN. SAMEDI,
LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA
RAPIDEMENT ET CONSIDERABLEMENT RENFORCER LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST PUIS NORD-OUEST. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAITRE
UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES EAUX DEVIENNENT
DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES. IL ENTAMERA EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE
D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DE L'ANOMALIE
D'ALTITUDE.=

2018-02-01 06:46

WTIO30 FMEE 010617

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 76.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

AFTER A PERIOD WHEN CONVECTION HAS REMAINED, THE LATEST INFRARED DATA
SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING CEBILE'S EYE.
DESPITE THIS WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE CONTRACTION OF
THE EYE ALLOWS A DVORAK ANALYSIS SLIGHTLY UP.

THE SLOW MOTION OF CEBILE REMAINS ON THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. TODAY, THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD THUS TAKE OVER CEBILE'S STEERING FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE DISPERSION BECAME RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LAST MODELS RUNS
ABOUT THE TURN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THAT CEBILE WILL TAKE, FOLLOWING
A GRADUAL ACCELERATION FROM TOMORROW.

CEBILE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND
SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. A SLIGHT INTENSITY
GAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR THAT
SEEMS TO AFFECT CURRENTLY CONVECTION COULD LIMIT THIS SLIGHT
INTENSITY REGAIN. FROM SATURDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST
OF THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLY THEN
NORTHWESTWERLY WINDSHEAR. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
DROP, AS IT WILL ALSO TRACK OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURES.
LASTLY, THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH.=

2018-02-01 06:16

WTIO20 FMEE 010605
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 01/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 76.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 18 UTC:
16.2 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 06 UTC:
16.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-02-01 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 010300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201013254
2018020100 07S CEBILE 021 01 270 03 SATL 020
T000 155S 0767E 115 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD
165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 158S 0760E 120 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD
165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 165S 0757E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD
160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 172S 0758E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 178S 0765E 100 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 193S 0789E 085 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 215S 0805E 070 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD
160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 247S 0815E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-02-01 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201013254
2018020100 07S CEBILE 021 01 270 03 SATL 020
T000 155S 0767E 115 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 158S 0760E 120 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 165S 0757E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 172S 0758E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 178S 0765E 100 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 193S 0789E 085 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 215S 0805E 070 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 247S 0815E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 76.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 76.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.8S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.7S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718020100 155S 767E 115
0718020100 155S 767E 115
0718020100 155S 767E 115

2018-02-01 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 010300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 76.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 76.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.8S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-02-01 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 76.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 76.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.8S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.7S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT, HIGH-CONFIDENCE POSITION IS
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY
OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
AND DEEPENING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR 25 NM EYE, EVIDENT IN
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, REFLECTS A RENEWED
INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S IS TRACKING
SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SHIFTING AND WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS, AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON
STORM MOTION. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY
EASTWARD AND POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW, NEAR-
EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TC 07S TRACKS OVER VERY WARM WATER AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE. SUBSEQUENTLY,
SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT
LESS CONDUCIVE AND THE OCEAN SURFACE POTENTIALLY COOLS A BIT DUE TO
UPWELLING INDUCED BY THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING TREND
WILL ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48 AS TC 07S MOVES OVER COOLER WATER, AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE BEGIN BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THERE IS RELATIVELY SMALL
SPREAD AMONG FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, SPREAD
INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE MODELS DEPICT VARYING IMPACTS
OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW ON THE STEERING PATTERN, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//

2018-02-01 00:46

WTIO31 FMEE 010020

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/02/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 76.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 410 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 270 SO: 190 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST RENFORCEE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST BIEN QUE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION QUI ENTOURE
L'OEIL RESTE PLUS ETROIT DANS CE DEMI-CERCLE. L'OEIL S'EST EGALEMENT
CONTRACTE LEGEREMENT, PERMETTANT UNE REMONTEE DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK
DU CMRS. LA PASSE MICROONDES AMSR2 DE 2007Z REVELE QUE L'ANNEAU DE
CONVECTION PRESENTE DESORMAIS QUELQUES FAIBLESSES PAR ENDROIT MAIS LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE DE CEBILE RESTE CEPENDANT SOLIDE.

CEBILE A NETTEMENT RALENTI VOIRE MEME STATIONNE SUR LES DEUX
DERNIERES HEURES. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX
CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. EN COURS DE
JOUNEE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE DECALAGE VERS L'OUEST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR, IMPOSANT UN
FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES EST DEVENUE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE DANS LE
DERNIER RESEAU. APRES LE VIRAGE, L'INCERTITUDE PRINCIPALE CONCERNE LA
VITESSE DE CEBILE. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PRINCIPALEMENT
BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET DE GFS.

CEBILE EVOLUE ACTUELLEMENT DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-PARFAIT AU NIVEAU
DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE EST DONC ENCORE
POSSIBLE JUSQU'A DEMAIN SOIR, A MOINS QUE L'AIR SEC N'AFFECTE TROP LA
CONVECTION OU QUE LES EAUX SOUS-JASCENTES SOIENT TROP REFROIDIES PAR
UN STATIONNEMENT PLUS LONG QUE PREVU. VENDREDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT
DANS LE QUADRANT NORD ET UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST COMMENCE A
SE METTRE EN PLACE EN ALTITUDE EN SOIREE. SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT
D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET
CONSIDERABLEMENT RENFORCER LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST PUIS NORD-OUEST. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAA TRE UNE
BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES EAUX DEVIENNENT DE
PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES. IL ENTAMERA EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE
D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DE L'ANOMALIE
D'ALTITUDE MATA RIALISANT L'ONDE DE ROSSBY.=

2018-02-01 00:46

WTIO30 FMEE 010020

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 76.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 410 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 270 SW: 190 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION STRENGTHENED IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE EVEN IF THE CONVECTION RING SURROUNDING CEBILE'S EYE
REMAINS NARROWER THERE. THE EYE ALSO TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING THE
RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATES TO INCREASE. MW IMAGES FROM THE AMSR2 2007Z
SWATH REVEALS A FEW WEAKNESSES IN THE CONVECTION RING NOW BUT THE
CORE STRUCTURE OF CEBILE STILL REMAINS SOLID.

CEBILE CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN, AND EVEN STOPPED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST
AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. TODAY, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE WESTWARD. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD THUS TAKE OVER CEBILE'S STEERING FLOW. THIS
CHANGE WILL LEAD TO A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION BECAME RELATIVELY LOW IN THE
LAST MODELS RUNS. AFTER THE TURN, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE
CYCLONE'S SPEED. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF RECENT IFS AND GFS GUIDANCE.

CEBILE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND
SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. A SLIGHT INTENSITY
GAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE, UNLESS THE CONVECTION BECOMES
TOO AFFECTED BY DRY AIR ON CONVECTION OR THE UNDERLYING WATERS COOLED
BY A LONGER STOP THAN EXPECTED. FROM FRIDAY, EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT
BEGINS TO APPEAR IN THE EVENING. FROM SATURDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE
BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE
WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTWERLY WINDSHEAR. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP, AS IT WILL ALSO TRACK OVER COOLER SURFACE
SEA TEMPERATURES. LASTLY, THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN ITS
EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MATERIALIZING THE
ROSSBY WAVE IS COMING CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM'S CORE.=

2018-02-01 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 010011
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 01/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 76.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 175 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 12 UTC:
15.9 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-31 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 312100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131200702
2018013118 07S CEBILE 020 01 290 03 SATL 020
T000 155S 0770E 110 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 156S 0762E 105 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD
170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 160S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 167S 0755E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 175S 0760E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 191S 0783E 090 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 212S 0802E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD
145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 240S 0815E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-31 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131200702
2018013118 07S CEBILE 020 01 290 03 SATL 020
T000 155S 0770E 110 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 156S 0762E 105 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 160S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 167S 0755E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 175S 0760E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 191S 0783E 090 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 212S 0802E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 240S 0815E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 77.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 77.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.0S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.2S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.0S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110
0718013118 155S 770E 110

2018-01-31 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 312100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 77.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 77.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-31 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 77.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 77.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.0S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.2S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.0S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIX FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 07S HAS WEAKENED VERY SLIGHTLY
WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SHIFTING AND WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EXERT AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN
POLEWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK STEADILY POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW STEERING
RIDGE. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF
POTENTIAL OCEAN SURFACE COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING BY THE SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM, ENABLING TC 07S TO APPROXIMATELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 AS TC
07S PASSES OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE BEGIN BY TAU 120 AS TC
07S INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THERE IS
RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD AMONG FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
HOWEVER, SPREAD INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE MODELS DEPICT
VARYING IMPACTS OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW ON THE STEERING PATTERN,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//

2018-01-31 18:31

WTIO31 FMEE 311820

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 31/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 76.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 410 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5+;CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE L'OEIL S'EST
DETERIORE SUR LES IMAGES IR. ALORS QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE
IMPRESSIONNANTE, L'EXPLICATION LA PLUS PROBABLE DE CETTE DEGRADATION
TEMPORAIRE RESTE L'INFLUENCE DE L'AIR SEC TOUJOURS BIEN PRESENT A
PROXIMITE OUEST DE CEBILE. CEPENDANT, SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES
IMAGES, LA CONVECTION A BIEN REPRIS.
L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS EST TOUJOURS LIMITEE PAR LA GRANDE TAILLE
DE L'OEIL.

CEBILE MAINTIENT UN CAP TOUJOURS ORIENTE GLOBALEMENT A L'OUEST, AVEC
UNE LEGERE TENDANCE OUEST-NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS
OPPOSES MAIS C'EST L'INFLUENCE SUBTROPICALE QUI DOMINE POUR LE
MOMENT. MAIS DEMAIN, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE DECALAGE VERS
L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT REPRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR,
IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION
GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE ASSEZ CONSEQUENTE AVEC
TOUJOURS UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE CEBILE AU COURS DE LA
NUIT. APRES LE VIRAGE, L'INCERTITUDE PRINCIPALE CONCERNE LA VITESSE
DE CEBILE. LA PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET DE GFS.

CEBILE EVOLUE ACTUELLEMENT DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-PARFAIT AU NIVEAU
DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE EST DONC ENCORE
POSSIBLE JUSQU'A DEMAIN SOIR. VENDREDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD ET UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST COMMENCE A SE
METTRE EN PLACE EN ALTITUDE. SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE
ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET
CONSIDERABLEMENT RENFORCER LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST PUIS NORD-OUEST. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAA TRE UNE
BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES EAUX DEVIENNENT DE
PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES. IL ENTAMERA EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE
D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DE L'ANOMALIE
D'ALTITUDE MATA RIALISANT L'ONDE DE ROSSBY.=

2018-01-31 18:31

WTIO30 FMEE 311820

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/31 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 76.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 410 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+;CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF CEBILE'S EYE HAS
DETERIORATED ON THE IR IMAGES. AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS
IMPRESSIVE, THE MOST PROBABLE CAUSE OF THIS TEMPORARY DEGRADATION
REMAINS THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR STILL LOCATED
CLOSE TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, ON THE VERY LAST SAT
IMAGES, CONVECTION STRENGTHENED AGAIN.
THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATES IS STILL LIMITED BY THE LARGE EYE SIZE.

CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, WITH A SLIGHT
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD TENDENCY. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE
STEERING FLOWS BUT THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS CURRENTLY CLEARLY THE
STRONGEST. HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE WESTWARD. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD THUS
TAKE OVER CEBILE'S STEERING FLOW. THIS CHANGE WILL LEAD TO A SHARP
SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE
DISPERSION REMAINS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
EXACT DIRECTION OF THE TRACK OF CEBILE OVER THE NIGHT. AFTER THE
TURN, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE CYCLONE'S SPEED. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF RECENT IFS AND GFS
GUIDANCE.

CEBILE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND
SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. A SLIGHT INTENSITY
GAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE. FROM FRIDAY, EQUATORWARD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR
CONSTRAINT BEGINS TO APPEAR. FROM SATURDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING
LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLY THEN
NORTHWESTWERLY WINDSHEAR. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
DROP, AS IT WILL ALSO TRACK OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURES.
LASTLY, THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MATERIALIZING THE ROSSBY WAVE IS COMING CLOSER TO
THE SYSTEM'S CORE.=

2018-01-31 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 311813
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 76.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 06 UTC:
15.6 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 18 UTC:
16.2 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-31 15:16

WTXS51 PGTW 311500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131141035
2018013112 07S CEBILE 019 01 305 04 SATL 030
T000 156S 0773E 115 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD
160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 156S 0766E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD
170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 160S 0759E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD
175 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 166S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 174S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 186S 0772E 095 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 208S 0796E 080 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 238S 0811E 060 R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
205 NE QD 210 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

2018-01-31 15:16

WTXS51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131141035
2018013112 07S CEBILE 019 01 305 04 SATL 030
T000 156S 0773E 115 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 156S 0766E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 160S 0759E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 166S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 174S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 186S 0772E 095 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 208S 0796E 080 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 238S 0811E 060 R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 210 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.0S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.4S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 77.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115
0718013112 156S 773E 115

2018-01-31 15:16

WTXS31 PGTW 311500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-31 15:16

WTXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.0S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.4S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 77.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A CLEAR EYE FEATURE, A VERY
SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER
AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE EYE
FEATURE HAS GRADUALLY CONTRACTED FROM 30 NM TO 25 NM OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. A 310935Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE EYE
DIAMETER AND INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF 108 KNOTS. TC
07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT
INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO THE
NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY
MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE
PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36,
THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24,
VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE
RECURVE, WITH A 100 NM SPREAD AT TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED
NEAR TO BUT JUST SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, LEADING
TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//

2018-01-31 13:16

WTIO31 FMEE 311247

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 77.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 390 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL LARGE DE
CEBILE N'A PAS EVOLUEE. LA CONTRACTION DE L'OEIL OBSERVE EN FIN DE
NUIT SEMBLE S'ETRE INTERROMPU. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS EST DONC
TOUJOURS LIMITE PAR LA TAILLE DE L'OEIL.

CEBILE MAITIENT UN CAP TOUJOURS ORIENTE GLOBALEMENT A L'OUEST. LE
SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION
PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. MAIS DEMAIN, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA PREMIERE, LA SECONDE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT
REPRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE
CEBILE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS
SEMBLENT COMMENCER A CONVERGER VERS UNE SOLUTION INTERMEDIAIRE. LA
PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET DE GFS.

JUSQU'A DEMAIN, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-PARFAIT
AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. UNE INTENSIFIACTION EST DONC ENCORE POSSIBLE
CETTE NUIT. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD MAIS CETTE BAISSE DEVRAIT A TRE COMPENSEE PAR UN
RENFORCEMENT DU CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. UN RALENTISSEMENT DE
CEBILE TROP IMPORTANT LORS DE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST POURRAIT
EGALEMENT FAIRE DIMINUER SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE PAR
REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES. DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A
SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU
SYSTEME, VA RAPIDEMENT ET CONSIDERABLEMENT ACCROITRE LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST ET CEBILE DEVRAIT CONNAA TRE UNE
BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA SUR DES EAUX
DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES. IL ENTAMERA EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE
D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=

2018-01-31 13:16

WTIO30 FMEE 311247

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 77.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 390 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE WIDE EYE PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE. THE
EYE CONTRACTION OBSERVED IN THE EARLY MORNING, STOPPED APPARENTLY.
THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS THUS STILL LIMITED BY THE EYE SIZE.

CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING
OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, THE FIRST ONE IS
EXPECTED TO DECAY, MAKING THE MAIN STEERING FLOW PROGRESSIVELY DRIVEN
BY THE SECOND ONE. THIS CHANGE WILL LEAD TO A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD
TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION
REMAINS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT HOURS. DIFFERENT SCENARIOS SEEMS TO START
CONVERGING TOWARDS AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF RECENT IFS AND GFS
GUIDANCE.

UNTIL TOMORROW, CEBILE SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS
CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. AN
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE. FROM THURSDAY
EVENING, EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT
THIS DECREASE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY AN INCREASING POLARWARD CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. MOREOVER, IF THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN IT
SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD, THE SELF-INDUCED SST COOLING COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A
ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA
TEMPERATURE. AT LAST THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN ITS
EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE.=

2018-01-31 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 311213
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 77.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 00 UTC:
15.9 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-31 09:46

WTXS31 PGTW 310900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 77.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-31 09:46

WTXS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 77.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.0S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.5S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.2S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.5S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.6S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.4S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE, A VERY SHARP
EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED
TO A MUCH BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE EYE SIZE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ABOUT 30NM OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 310356Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE
EYE DIAMETER AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION SEEN IN
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115
KNOTS BASED ON A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115
KNOTS) THAT IS SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH
A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE
OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO A NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM
RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR
TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL
ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. MOST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SMOOTH BUT TIGHTER TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAN SHOWN IN EARLIER RUNS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR TO BUT
JUST SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z,
010300Z AND 010900Z.//

2018-01-31 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 310900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131084042
2018013106 07S CEBILE 018 01 280 07 SATL 040
T000 158S 0776E 115 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 157S 0767E 115 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD
180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 160S 0760E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 190 SE QD
175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 165S 0755E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD
175 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 172S 0755E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD
170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 185S 0767E 095 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 206S 0792E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD
155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 234S 0807E 060 R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

2018-01-31 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131084042
2018013106 07S CEBILE 018 01 280 07 SATL 040
T000 158S 0776E 115 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 157S 0767E 115 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 160S 0760E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 165S 0755E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 172S 0755E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 185S 0767E 095 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 206S 0792E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 234S 0807E 060 R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 77.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.0S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.5S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.2S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.5S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.6S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.4S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013100 159S 783E 120
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115
0718013106 158S 776E 115

2018-01-31 07:16

WTIO31 FMEE 310630

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 77.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 390 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0- CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL LARGE DE
CEBILE N'A PAS FONDAMENTALEMENT EVOLUEE. UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT
TEMPORAIRE S'EST PRODUIT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE L'OEIL. MAIS LES
DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES N'ONT PAS MONTRE DE FAIBLESSE
PARTICULIRERE. L'OEIL A CONTINUE DE SE CONTRACTER LEGEREMENT MAIS
RESTE TOUJOURS DE GRANDE TAILLE CE QUI LIMITE L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU
CMRS.

CEBILE A UN PEU ACCELERE EN FIN DE NUIT AVEC UN CAP TOUJOURS ORIENTE
GLOBALEMENT A L'OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS
OPPOSES. LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT CONSERVER UN LEGER AVANTAGE
POUR LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES. MAIS DEMAIN, ELLE FAIBLIT ET LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
PROGRESSIVEMENT, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE
ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE
AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE CEBILE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS. LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS SEMBLENT COMMENCER A
CONVERGER VERS UNE SOLUTION INTERMEDIAIRE. LA PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE
EST BASEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS DE IFS ET GFS.

JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE
QUASI-PARFAIT AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
ET DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AVEC LA CONTRACTION ACTUELLE DE
L'OEIL, UNE INTENSIFICATION EST TOUJOURS ATTENDUE POUR LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD MAIS CETTE BAISSE DEVRAIT A TRE COMPENSEE PAR UN RENFORCEMENT DU
CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. CEPENDANT, UN RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE
TROP IMPORTANT LORS DE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST POURRAIT FAIRE
DIMINUER SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX
SOUS-JACENTES. DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT
D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET
CONSIDERABLEMENT ACCROITRE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
NORD-OUEST ET CEBILE DEVRAIT CONNAA TRE UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE
ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA SUR DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES.
=

2018-01-31 07:16

WTIO30 FMEE 310630

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 77.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 390 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 200 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE WIDE EYE PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE A LOT.
A SLIGHT WEAKENING OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BUT LAST
MICROWAVE DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY WEAKNESS. THE EYE KEEP ON CONTRACTING
SLOWLY BUT IS STILL WIDE LIMITING THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATES.

CEBILE ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY MORNING, STILL TRACKING
MAINLY WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE
TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. THE
SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER AT SHORT RANGE.
HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECAY, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BECOMING THE MAIN STEERING FLOW PROGRESSIVELY. THIS DRIVES A
SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE
GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAYS. DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
SEEMS TO START CONVERGING TOWARD AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION. THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON AN IFS AND GFS CONSENSUS.

UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CEBILE SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT
CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. WITH THE CURRENT CONTRACTION OF THE EYE, A INTENSIFICATION
IS STILL FORECAST AT SHORT RANGE. FROM THURSDAY, EQUATORWARD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT THIS DECREASE SHOULD BE
OFFSET BY AN INCREASING POLARWARD CHANNEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD,
THE SST SELF-INDUCED COOLING COULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S
INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST
OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS
IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURE.=

2018-01-31 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 310619
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 77.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 18 UTC:
15.7 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 06 UTC:
15.9 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-31 02:46

WTXS51 PGTW 310300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131014444
2018013100 07S CEBILE 017 01 260 07 SATL 010
T000 160S 0781E 120 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 160S 0769E 125 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD
155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 161S 0761E 130 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD
165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 165S 0756E 130 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 172S 0752E 125 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 175 SE QD
165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 185S 0758E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 206S 0783E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 239S 0807E 070 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 215 SE QD
160 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-31 02:46

WTXS51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131014444
2018013100 07S CEBILE 017 01 260 07 SATL 010
T000 160S 0781E 120 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 160S 0769E 125 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 161S 0761E 130 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 165S 0756E 130 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 172S 0752E 125 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 185S 0758E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 206S 0783E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 239S 0807E 070 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.1S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.5S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.2S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.6S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.9S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 77.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013100 160S 781E 120
0718013100 160S 781E 120
0718013100 160S 781E 120

2018-01-31 02:46

WTXS31 PGTW 310300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-31 02:46

WTXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.1S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.5S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.2S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.6S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.9S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 77.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE
WITH A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS
SOME PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A
NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED TO A MUCH
BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE.
CONTINUING THE TREND NOTICED IN THE EARLIER WARNING, THE EYE HAS
BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MEASURED AT 31NM.
A 310031Z 91GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SOLID RING OF
IMPRESSIVE AND INTENSE CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC
AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND
T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.9
(112 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING
FURTHER NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO SOME PRESSURE ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. AT THE MOMENT, THIS
PRESSURE IS BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING
TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN
THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR
TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AS THERE ARE NO
HINDRANCES TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, VWS BEGINS TO
INCREASE AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN LEADS A
SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL
ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A TURN A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE EGRR AND
AFUM MODELS ARE THE ONLY REMAINING EASTERN OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK
IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE CONCENTRATION
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. WHILE COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL
TRACK, THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//

2018-01-31 00:31

WTIO31 FMEE 310022

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 31/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 78.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :59 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 390 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL LARGE DE
CEBILE EST RESTEE BIEN STABLE AVEC DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK QUI ONT PEU
FLUCTUEES. TOUTEFOIS L'OEIL A COMMENCE A LEGEREMENT SE CONTRACTER CE
QUI POURRAIT SIGNIFIER UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
QUI BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES.

LE CAP DE CEBILE RESTE ORIENTE A L'OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE
UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX
DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN LENT
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE
AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE. EN
COURS DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE
CEBILE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR REPRENDRE
LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR VENDREDI, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE
CEBILE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, ENTRE LE DEPLACEMENT NORD-OUEST
PROPOSE PAR IFS ET LA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST DU GFS. CEPENDANT, LE
TIMING DU VIRAGE FAIT L'OBJET D'UN BON ACCORD.

JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE
QUASI-IDEAL AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE, QUI AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD MAIS
CETTE BAISSE DEVRAIT A TRE COMPENSEE PAR UN RENFORCEMENT DU CANAL
D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. CEPENDANT, UN RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE TROP
IMPORTANT LORS DE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST POURRAIT FAIRE DIMINUER
SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX
SOUS-JASCENTES. DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT
D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET
CONSIDERABLEMENT ACCROITRE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
NORD-OUEST ET CEBILE DEVRAIT CONNAA TRE UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE
ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA SUR DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES.
=

2018-01-31 00:31

WTIO30 FMEE 310022

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 390 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 200 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE WIDE EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED VERY
STABLE. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAS NOT MUCH FLUCTUATED. NEVERTHELESS
CEBILE'S EYE HAS BEGUN TO SHRINK THAT COULD INDICATE A RESUMPTION OF
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE VERY GOOD ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS.

CEBILE IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE
STEERING FLOWS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER. OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
WEAKENING BEFORE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING
FLOW FRIDAY. THIS DRIVES A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT COURSE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
DAYS, BETWEEN A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A
SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION FOR GFS. HOWEVER, THE AGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING
OF THE TURN IS GOOD.

UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CEBILE SHOULD TRACK WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT
CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT, WHICH IS EVEN INCREASING WEST OF 80E. FROM THURSDAY,
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT THIS
DECREASE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY AN INCREASING POLERWARD CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, IF THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN IT SHOULD CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD, THE SST SELF-INDUCED COOLING COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A ROSSBY WAVE
BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THE
NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECASTED
TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA
TEMPERATURE.=

2018-01-31 00:31

WTIO20 FMEE 310015
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 220 MN WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 12 UTC:
15.8 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 00 UTC:
16.0 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-30 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 302100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130194600
2018013018 07S CEBILE 016 01 280 05 SATL 015
T000 159S 0788E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 158S 0780E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD
150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 158S 0771E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 161S 0764E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD
165 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 167S 0760E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD
165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 178S 0759E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 193S 0777E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD
155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 221S 0805E 075 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 135 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 210 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-30 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130194600
2018013018 07S CEBILE 016 01 280 05 SATL 015
T000 159S 0788E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 158S 0780E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 158S 0771E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 161S 0764E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 167S 0760E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 178S 0759E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 193S 0777E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 221S 0805E 075 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 210 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.8S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.8S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.1S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.8S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.1S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 78.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110
0718013018 159S 788E 110

2018-01-30 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 302100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.8S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-30 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.8S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.8S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.1S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.8S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.1S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 78.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A MASSIVE EYE NEARLY 60NM
ACROSS AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING INTO A STRONG
CONVECTIVE CORE. IT HAD BEEN EXPECTED THAT THE EYE DIAMETER WOULD
HAVE DECREASED AFTER COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) YESTERDAY BUT THE EYE HAS REMAINED EXTREMELY WIDE. HOWEVER,
THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK AGAIN. A 301647Z 89GHZ AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REMAIN IN PLACE, COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110
KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0
(115 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN
LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.6 (102
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINMENT AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATELY HIGH OHC VALUES
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ROBUST BOTH
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DUE TO A POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S LIES IN A COL AREA TRAPPED BETWEEN
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENTIRE RIDGE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S THROUGH THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL ERODE THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING TC 07S
TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD. BEYOND TAU 72, THE NER REORIENTS TO A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING FACTOR, LEADING TC 07S TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 07S
TRANSITS THROUGH THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR-TERM, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY NEAR
115 KNOTS WITH SMALL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ERC.
AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD BEYOND TAU 72, IT WILL UNDERGO MORE
RAPID WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES COOLER WATERS, VWS INCREASES AND
OUTFLOW SHIFTS TO A SINGLE CHANNEL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY, BUT THERE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN.
JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW A MUCH SLOWER WESTWARD ADVANCE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING THE TURN SOUTHEAST AND ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OUTLIERS. THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A QUICKER FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH TAU 48, LEADING TO A TURN FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//

2018-01-30 18:16

WTIO31 FMEE 301811

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 78.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 310 SO: 310 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES LA CONFIGATION EN OEIL LARGE DE
CEBILE EST RESTEE BIEN STABLE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE WINDSAT 37GHZ DE
1318Z MONTRE UN IMPRESSIONANT ANNEAU ROSE DE CONVECTION TRES INTENSE
AUTOUR DE L'OEIL. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK CONNAIT UNE LEGERE BAISSE
DEPUIS 1200Z. L'INTENSITE DE CEBILE RESTE ESTIMA E AUTOUR DU STADE
MAXIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL (85KT), ESTIMATION EN ACCORD AVEC
L'ESTIMATION SATCON DE 1254Z.

LE CAP DE CEBILE RESTE ORIENTE A L'OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE
UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX
DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN LENT
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE
AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE. EN
COURS DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE
CEBILE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR REPRENDRE
LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR VENDREDI, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE
CEBILE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, ENTRE LE DEPLACEMENT NORD-OUEST
PROPOSE PAR IFS ET LA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST DU GFS. CEPENDANT, LE
TIMING DU VIRAGE FAIT L'OBJET D'UN BON ACCORD.

JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE
QUASI-IDEAL AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE, QUI AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD MAIS
CETTE BAISSE DEVRAIT A TRE COMPENSEE PAR UN RENFORCEMENT DU CANAL
D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. CEPENDANT, UN RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE TROP
IMPORTANT LORS DE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST POURRAIT FAIRE DIMINUER
SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX
SOUS-JASCENTES. DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT
D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET
CONSIDERABLEMENT ACCROITRE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
NORD-OUEST ET CEBILE DEVRAIT CONNAA TRE UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE
ALORS QU'IL EVOLUERA SUR DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES=

2018-01-30 18:16

WTIO30 FMEE 301811

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 310 SW: 310 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE WIDE EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED VERY
STABLE. 1318Z 37GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE
PINK RING OF INTENSE CONVECTION. SINCE 1200Z, THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED. CEBILE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AROUND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMAL STAGE (85KT) ACCORDING WITH THE 1254Z SATCON
ASSESSMENT.

CEBILE IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE
STEERING FLOWS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER. OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
WEAKENING BEFORE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING
FLOW FRIDAY. THIS DRIVES A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT COURSE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
DAYS, BETWEEN A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A
SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION FOR GFS. HOWEVER, THE AGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING
OF THE TURN IS GOOD.

UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CEBILE SHOULD TRACK WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT
CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT, WHICH IS EVEN INCREASING WEST OF 80E. FROM THURSDAY,
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT THIS
DECREASE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY AN INCREASING POLERWARD CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, IF THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN IT SHOULD CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD, THE SST SELF-INDUCED COOLING COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A ROSSBY WAVE
BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THE
NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECASTED
TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA
TEMPERATURE.=

2018-01-30 18:16

WTIO20 FMEE 301805
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
15.9 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-30 15:01

WTXS51 PGTW 301500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130140101
2018013012 07S CEBILE 015 01 270 05 SATL 040
T000 160S 0793E 100 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 159S 0784E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD
155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 160S 0776E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD
165 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 162S 0769E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 166S 0763E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD
175 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 179S 0761E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD
165 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 192S 0777E 095 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 213S 0801E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
120 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD
160 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-30 15:01

WTXS51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130140101
2018013012 07S CEBILE 015 01 270 05 SATL 040
T000 160S 0793E 100 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 159S 0784E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 160S 0776E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 162S 0769E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 166S 0763E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 179S 0761E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 192S 0777E 095 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 213S 0801E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.9S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.0S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.2S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.6S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100
0718013012 160S 793E 100

2018-01-30 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 301500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.9S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-30 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.9S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.0S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.2S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.6S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 60NM EYE FEATURE AND RADIAL BANDING
CONVERGING INTO A STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. A 301035Z 91GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
EYE FEATURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE ABNORMALLY LARGE EYE FEATURE LEFT BEHIND AFTER COMPLETION OF
A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE STEADILY INCREASING TO T5.5/5.5 (102 KNOTS) FORMING
THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT OR AROUND 100 TO
105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW
WITH A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS WITH MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC
07S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO BOTH THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING WESTWARD, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A RESULTANT WESTWARD TRACK
FOR TC 07S, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. BEYOND TAU 72 A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WITH THE
DOMINANT NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMING STEERING AND SHIFTING THE
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE NEW
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER COOLER SSTS. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE PHILOSOPHY. JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW A MUCH SLOWER
WESTWARD ADVANCE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING THE TURN
SOUTHEAST. THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTWARD
DISPLACEMENT BEFORE MAKING THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND
311500Z.//

2018-01-30 12:46

WTIO31 FMEE 301219

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 79.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 210 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL LARGE DE
CEBILE A PEU EVOLUE. LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX A FLUCTUE,
MAIS L'ESTIMATION DVORAK RESTE QUASI-CONSTANTE AUTOUR DU STADE
MAXIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL (85KT). LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1035Z CONFIRME
LA SOLIDITE DE LA STRUCTURE ANNULAIRE DE CEBILE. A PART DE L'AIR SEC
QUI S'ENROULE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION,
L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST FAVORABLE AU MAINTIEN VOIRE MEME A UNE LEGERE
AUGMENTATION DE L'INTENSITE.

LE CAP DE CEBILE RESTE ORIENTE A L'OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE
UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX
DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN LENT
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE
AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE. EN
COURS DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE
CEBILE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR REPRENDRE
LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR VENDREDI, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE
CEBILE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, ENTRE LE DEPLACEMENT NORD-OUEST
PROPOSE PAR IFS ET LA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST DU GFS. CEPENDANT, LE
TIMING DU VIRAGE FAIT L'OBJET D'UN BON ACCORD.

JUSQU'A JEUDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE
QUASI-IDEAL AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE, QUI AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E. TANT
QU'IL RESTE AU NORD DE 20S, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AINSI TROUVER ASSEZ
D'ENERGIE DANS L'OCEAN POUR EMPECHER L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT DE
PENETRER SON COEUR. CEPENDANT, SI CEBILE RALENTIT PLUS QUE PREVU, LE
REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JASCENTES POURRAIT FAIRE DIMINUER
SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE. EN COHERENCE AVEC LA VITESSE DE LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE, LE SYSTEME A TOUTES LES CHANCES DE
SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
(MODULO LES FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A D'AUTRES CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT). A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LES CONDITIONS DEVIENNENT MOINS FAVORABLES AVEC
LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST LIE A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE.=

2018-01-30 12:46

WTIO30 FMEE 301219

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 79.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 210 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE WIDE EYE PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE MUCH. THE
CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATED A LITTLE, BUT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
REMAINED STABLE AROUND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMAL STAGE (85KT).
SSMIS 1035Z SWATH CONFIRMS THE SOLIDITY OF THE ANNULAR STRUCTURE OF
CEBILE. APART DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE AND SUGGEST A STABLE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOURS.

CEBILE IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE
STEERING FLOWS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER. OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
WEAKENING BEFORE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING
FLOW FRIDAY. THIS DRIVES A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT COURSE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
DAYS, BETWEEN A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A
SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION FOR GFS. HOWEVER, THE AGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING
OF THE TURN IS GOOD.

UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, CEBILE SHOULD TRACK WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT
CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT, WHICH IS EVEN INCREASING WEST OF 80E. AS LONG AS IT TRACKS
NORTH OF 20S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND ENOUGH ENERGY IN THE OCEAN TO
SHIELD ITSELF FROM THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. HOWEVER, IF THE MOTION IS
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SST SELF-INDUCED COOLING COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. CONSISTENTLY WITH THE
SPEED OF THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE NEXT DAYS (MODULO THE FLUCTUATIONS LINKED TO EVENTUAL
ERCS). FROM FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
AS THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.=

2018-01-30 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 301211
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 79.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 00 UTC:
15.9 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 12 UTC:
15.9 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-30 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 300900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130081246
2018013006 07S CEBILE 014 01 270 06 SATL 045
T000 160S 0798E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 160S 0790E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 160S 0782E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD
165 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 160S 0775E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 163S 0768E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 200 SE QD
190 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 174S 0762E 105 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD
180 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 188S 0772E 095 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 206S 0795E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
120 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 215 SE QD
170 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-30 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130081246
2018013006 07S CEBILE 014 01 270 06 SATL 045
T000 160S 0798E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 160S 0790E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 160S 0782E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 160S 0775E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 163S 0768E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 174S 0762E 105 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 188S 0772E 095 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 206S 0795E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 215 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.0S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.0S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.3S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.8S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100
0718013006 160S 798E 100

2018-01-30 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 300900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.0S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-30 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.0S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.0S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.3S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.8S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A 60NM EYE FEATURE WITH SYMMETRICAL RADIAL BANDING CONVERGING INTO
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE ABNORMALLY LARGE EYE FEATURE LEFT BEHIND AFTER
COMPLETION OF A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT OR AROUND 100 TO 105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED ALOFT
OVER THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS WITH
MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO BOTH
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING
WESTWARD AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A RESULTANT
WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES.
BEYOND TAU 72 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE
SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WITH THE DOMINANT NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMING
STEERING AND SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE PHILOSOPHY. JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER EARLIER WITH A RESULTANT TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST HAPPENING SOONER. THE REMAINING MODELS IN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOW A PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//

2018-01-30 07:01

WTIO31 FMEE 300631

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 79.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 210 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL S'EST ACHEVE. AU CENTRE DU GRAND OEIL DE CEBILE, IL NE RESTE
PLUS QUE QUELQUES CIRRUS RESIDUELS ET SEULS DES NUAGES DE BASSES
COUCHES MATERIALISENT ENCORE LES VESTIGES DU PETIT OEIL DE LA VEILLE.
BIEN QUE LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SOIENT LEGEREMENT RECHAUFFES EN FIN
DE NUIT, LA CONVECTION A DE NOUVEAU BIEN REPRIS AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES CE QUI SUGGERE UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
A VENIR.

LE CAP DE CEBILE RESTE ORIENTE A L'OUEST, AVEC MEME UNE LEGERE
TENDANCE OUEST-NORD-OUEST SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. LE SYSTEME EST
PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX
DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN LENT
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE
AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE. EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE
CEBILE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR REPRENDRE
LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. ALORS QUE L'INFLUENCE DES
DORSALES VARIE D'UN MODELE A L'AUTRE, LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE CE QUI DONNE UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS ELEVEE QUE LA
NORMALE.

MAINTENANT QUE LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST TERMINE,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE REINTENSIFIER DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. JUSQU'A JEUDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE
QUASI-IDEAL AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE, QUI AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT AINSI TROUVER ASSEZ D'ENERGIE DANS L'OCEAN POUR
EMPECHER L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT DE PENETRER SON COEUR. CEPENDANT, SI
CEBILE RALENTIT PLUS QUE PREVU, LE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX
SOUS-JASCENTES POURRAIT FAIRE DIMINUER DRASTIQUEMENT SON INTENSITE.
EN COHERENCE AVEC LA VITESSE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE,
LE SYSTEME A TOUTES LES CHANCES DE SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE
ELEVEE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS (MODULO LES FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A
D'AUTRES CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT). A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LES
CONDITIONS DEVIENNENT MOINS FAVORABLES AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST LIE A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE.=

2018-01-30 07:01

WTIO30 FMEE 300631

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 79.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 210 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE CAME TO AN END.
A FEW RESIDUAL CIRRUS REMAIN WITHIN CEBILE'S WIDE EYE AND ONLY LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS STILL MATERIALIZE THE REMAINS OF YESTERDAY'S SMALL EYE.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED UP BEFORE SUNRISE, CONVECTION
HAS STRENGTHENED AGAIN OVER THE LAST HOURS. THIS SUGGEST A NEW
INTENSIFICATION PHASE TO COME.

CEBILE IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARDS, WITH EVEN A SLIGHT
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD TENDENCY ON THE LAST SAT IMAGES. THE SYSTEM IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS
SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER. FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WEAKENING AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING FLOW. THIS DRIVES A SHARP
SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TWO RIDGES IS VARYING FROM ONE MODEL TO AN OTHER,THE
DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH AROUND THIS TRACK FORECAST, RESULTING IN A
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL.

NOW THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS OVER, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY IN THE NEXT HOURS. UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT,
CEBILE SHOULD TRACK WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND
SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, WHICH IS EVEN
INCREASING WEST OF 80E. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN FIND ENOUGH ENERGY IN
THE OCEAN TO SHIELD ITSELF FROM THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. HOWEVER, IF
THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SST COOLING COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. CONSISTENTLY WITH THE
SPEED OF THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STRONG
OVER THE NEXT DAYS (MODULO THE FLUCTUATIONS LINKED TO EVENTUAL ERCS).
FROM FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS THE
WESTERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.=

2018-01-30 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 300620 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 79.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
15.9 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTION OF GALE FORCE EXTENSIONS=

2018-01-30 02:16

WTXS51 PGTW 300300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130011950
2018013000 07S CEBILE 013 01 230 05 SATL 030
T000 160S 0804E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 162S 0795E 105 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 162S 0785E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 163S 0777E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 164S 0769E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD
175 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 169S 0759E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD
175 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 184S 0757E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 205S 0786E 095 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
115 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 200 SE QD
155 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-30 02:16

WTXS51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130011950
2018013000 07S CEBILE 013 01 230 05 SATL 030
T000 160S 0804E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 162S 0795E 105 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 162S 0785E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 163S 0777E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 164S 0769E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 169S 0759E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 184S 0757E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 205S 0786E 095 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 200 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.2S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.2S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.9S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.4S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 707 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100
0718013000 160S 804E 100

2018-01-30 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 300300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.2S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-30 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.2S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.2S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.9S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.4S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 707 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CORE WITH
A BROADENED EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS WIDENED TO OVER 50 NM AFTER AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EYE
FEATURE. THE PLACEMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF A 292200Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LARGE EYE FEATURE WITH A
SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SOME EVIDENCE OF THE PREVIOUS
EYEWALL, WHICH HAS NOW BEEN REPLACED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS THOUGH THE CYCLONE PROBABLY REACHED A MINIMUM
OF AROUND 95 KNOTS BETWEEN WARNING CYCLES DUE TO THE ERC. NOW THAT
THE ERC IS COMPLETE, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN
BACK TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
(SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
CEBILE CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND HIGH SSTS AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S REMAINS COCOONED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE LYING TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN OF COMPETING RIDGES IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD, DRAGGING TC 07S ALONG WITH IT. TC CEBILE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTH.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, THOUGH IT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN THE
TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. THE U.S. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 72 NEAR THE 75E
LONGITUDE LINE, WHILE THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND HWRF SOLUTIONS,
ALONG WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ARE SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE GROUPING OF THE U.S. MODELS AS
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY AT THIS TIME. NOW THAT THE ERC HAS COMPLETED, TC CEBILE
WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, AS THERE IS LITTLE TO
HINDER THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 72, COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS
WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH, AND LARGE SPREAD IN THE
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//

2018-01-30 01:46

WTIO31 FMEE 300123

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 80.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SO: 300 NO: 180
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0 CI=5.5

LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMI DE 2116Z ET SSMIS DE 22Z)
MONTRENT QUE LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST ENTRE DANS
SA PHASE TERMINALE: LE PETIT COEUR CENTRAL INITIAL A IMPLOSE AVEC
QUELQUES RESTES ENCORE VISIBLES AU SEIN D'UN NOUVEL OEIL DE 55-60 MN
DE DIAMETRE. L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE EST DELICATE CAR LA METHODE DE
DVORAK N'EST PAS ADAPTEE A CE GENRE DE SITUATION. LES VENTS MAX SONT
ESTIMES EN LEGERE BAISSE A 80 KT EN EXTRAPOLATION D'UN SATCON A 98 KT
1 MIN (86 KT 10 MIN) DE 1623Z. EN EFFET, LE RAYON DE VENT MAX SE
SITUANT MAINTENANT DANS LE MUR EXTERNE, LE SYSTEME EST PROBABLEMENT
AU MINIMUM DE LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LIEE AU CYCLE DU MUR DE
L'OEIL (CF.SITKOWSKI ETAL. 2011).

LE DEPLACEMENT, QUI CONTINUE D'OSCILLER ENTRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST ET
SUD-OUEST, DEVIENT LENT. CEBILE VA ETRE CONCERNE PAR DEUX FLUX
DIRECTEURS OPPOSES AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS ENTRE UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SUGGERENT UN LENT DEPLACEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST
DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE. TOUTEFOIS CE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT PLUS
RESSEMBLER A UNE DERIVE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE CEBILE ET LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR PRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE
ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LES MODELES SONT ENTRAIN PROGRESSIVEMENT DE
SE METTRE EN PHASE SUR LA LOCALISATION DU VIRAGE MAIS DES DIFFERENCES
IMPORTANTES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SONT TOUJOURS CONSTATEES.
MALGRE TOUT CETTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE TOUJOURS CREDITEE
D'UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LIEE AU REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST TRES
PROBABLEMENT TEMPORAIRE. EN REDRESSANT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME VA SE RETROUVER DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-IDEAL AU
NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE (IL VA AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E TANT QUE LE
SYSTEME RESTE AU NORD DE 18S). CELA DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE D'ISOLER LE
COEUR DU SYSTEME DE L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT ... SI LE DEPLACEMENT RESTE
SUFFISANT POUR EMPECHER UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST SOUS JACENTES
(HYPOTHESE PRIVILEGIEE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE MAIS QUI RESTE ELLE AUSSI A
VERIFIER ...). SUR CETTE BASE, UN SECOND PIC D'INTENSITE EST PROBABLE
MAINTENANT QUE LE CYCLE EST SUR LE POINT DE SE TERMINER.

SI CEBILE NE SUBIT PAS DE REFROIDISSEMENT LIE A LA SST, LE SYSTEME A
TOUTES LES CHANCES DE SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS (AVEC DES FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A D'AUTRES POSSIBLES
CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT) AVANT DE CONNAITRE DES CONDITIONS MOINS
FAVORABLES EN FIN DE SEMAINE AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST
LIE A L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST.=

2018-01-30 01:46

WTIO30 FMEE 300123

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 80.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 300 NW: 180
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI AT 2116Z AND SSMIS AT 22Z) DEPICT AN
ERC IN ITS TERMINAL PHASE: THE TINY INNER-CORE HAS COLLAPSED WITH
SOME REMNANTS STILL VISIBLE WITHIN A NEW 55-60 NM WIDE EYE. THE
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS TRICKY AS CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUE (DVORAK) IS
NOT SUITED FOR THIS KIND OF SITUATION. THE MAX WINDS AT 80 KT IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A SATCON AT 1623Z WITH 98 KT 1-MIN WINDS (OR 86 KT
10-MIN WINDS). INDEED, NOW THAT THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS HAS SHIFTED
IN THE OUTER WALL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY AT THE WEAKEST PART OF THE
ERC CONCEPTUAL MODEL (CF SITKOWSKI ETAL. 2011)

THE FORWARD MOTION, THAT IS STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SOUTHWESTWARDS, HAS SLOW DOWN. CEBILE IS
CAUGHT IN-BETWEEN TWO OPPOSITE STEERING FLOW WITH THE STR TO THE
SOUTH-WEST AND A NER TO ITS NORTH-EAST. ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARDS MOTION SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING FLOW
FROM THE STR WILL PREVAIL FIRST. GIVEN THE CONTEXT, THE WESTWARD
MOTION MAY RATHER BE CLOSE TO A DRIFT THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST
AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
THE LEAD ON THE STEERING FLOW ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. MODELS ARE BECOMING
SOMEWHAT IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCALIZATION OF THE TURN BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD MOTION ARE STILL NOTED AMONG
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THE CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.

THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE ERC IS LIKELY TEMPORARILY. AS
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARDS, IT WILL MOVE THROUGH A NEAR PERFECT
ENVIRONMENT IN TERM OF SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC
CONTAIN (IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNDER THE SYSTEM AS LONG AS IT
MOVE WEST OF 80E AND STAY NORTH OF 18S). IT SHOULD ALLOW THE
INNER-CORE TO BE PROTECTED FROM ENVIRONMENTAL DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ....
IF THE FORWARD MOTION REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT A SELF-INDUCED
OCEANIC COOLING. THIS IS THE CURRENT HYPOTHESIS OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST ... BUT HERE TOO, SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ....

IF CEBILE DON'T SUFFER FROM SELF-INDUCED COLD SST, THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN AT FAIRLY HIGH INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS (WITH SOME UNPREDICTABLE FLUCTUATIONS LINKED TO OTHER POTENTIAL
ERC) BEFORE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.=

2018-01-30 00:31

WTIO20 FMEE 300023
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 80.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
16.1 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 00 UTC:
16.0 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INNER CORE WINDS RADII HAS INCREASED AS THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETED AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.=

2018-01-29 20:31

WTXS51 PGTW 292100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129193050
2018012918 07S CEBILE 012 01 235 04 SATL 020
T000 157S 0808E 100 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 159S 0800E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 160S 0791E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 161S 0783E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 162S 0775E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 164S 0761E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 175S 0753E 100 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 197S 0774E 085 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 195 SE QD
165 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-29 20:31

WTXS51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129193050
2018012918 07S CEBILE 012 01 235 04 SATL 020
T000 157S 0808E 100 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 159S 0800E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 160S 0791E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 161S 0783E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 162S 0775E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 164S 0761E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 175S 0753E 100 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 197S 0774E 085 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.9S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.2S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.4S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.7S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 80.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012906 152S 815E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012912 155S 811E 110
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100
0718012918 157S 808E 100

2018-01-29 20:31

WTXS31 PGTW 292100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.9S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-29 20:31

WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.9S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.2S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.4S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.7S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 80.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A VERY SMALL, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 6 NM INNER EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EIR EYE. 291346Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGES
AT 36 AND 39 GHZ INDICATED THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC), WITH THE COMPACT 6 NM INNER EYE SURROUNDED BY A 65 NM
OUTER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS IN
LIGHT OF THE ONGOING ERC AS WELL AS MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T5.3 (97 KNOTS AND A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 108 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC CEBILE LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LIGHT (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND HAS MAINTAINED ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A DEEP
MOISTURE FIELD, WHILE TRANSITING IN AN AREA OF A HIGH SSTS OF 28-29
DEG CELSIUS). TC 07S IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A COL AREA BETWEEN A
DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY WESTWARD, RESULTING IN THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. TC CEBILE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND NER THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 72, A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STR TO THE
SOUTH, ALLOWING A FAIRLY SHARP POLEWARD TURN. DYNAMICAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL TRACK, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS
INDICATE A TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHILE THE NVGM AND COTC
MODELS SHOW A TURN BEYOND 72 HOURS WELL TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST
IS PLACED NEAR THE GROUPING OF THE U.S. MODELS AND WELL WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A NEAR-
TERM RECURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. AS NOTED ABOVE, TC CEBILE IS
UNDERGOING AN ERC, LEADING TO SOME NEAR-TERM WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE ERC IS COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TC CEBILE
WILL BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY
FAVORABLE AND THERE IS LITTLE TO WARRANT A DROP IN INTENSITY OTHER
THAN NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS AND FUTURE POTENTIAL ERC'S. BEYOND TAU 72,
COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE
SOUTH, AND LARGE SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z,
301500Z AND 302100Z.//

2018-01-29 19:31

WTIO31 FMEE 291858

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 80.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 330 SO: 330 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA SOIREE MONTRENT MAINTENANT CLAIREMENT
QUE CEBILE CONNAIT UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. UN MUR
EXTERNE D'UN DIAMETRE D'ENVIRON 90 MN S'EST CONSTITUE AUTOUR DU MUR
INITIAL QUI A COMMENCE A PERDRE DE SA VIGUEUR. LE SYSTEME EST DANS
UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE A ETE ESTIMEE
LEGEREMENT EN-DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK.

LA TRAJECTOIRE A COMMENCE A RALENTIR ET A SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE
SON EXTENSION VERS LE NORD. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE CEBILE ET UNE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ALORS PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST ET ACCELERER. LES
MODELES SONT GRADUELLEMENT ENTRAIN DE SE METTRE EN PHASE SUR LA
LOCALISATION DU VIRAGE (UKMO RESTE UN OUTLIER A L'EST) MAIS DES
DIFFERENCES IMPORTANTES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SONT TOUJOURS
CONSTATEES. SUR LES DERNIERS MODELES UTILISES (INCLUANT CERTAINS
MODELES DE 12Z), LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST GLOBALEMENT PLUS
RAPIDE A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE ET LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE A ETE
AJUSTEE EN CONSEQUENCE.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LIEE AU REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST TRES
PROBABLEMENT TEMPORAIRE. EN REDRESSANT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME VA SE RETROUVER DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-IDEAL AU
NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE (IL VA AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E TANT QUE LE
SYSTEME RESTE AU NORD DE 18S). CELA DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE D'ISOLER LE
COEUR DU SYSTEME DE L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT MALGRE UN DEPLACEMENT
FAIBLE QUI DEVRAIT MALGRE TOUT RESTER SUFFISANT POUR EMPECHER UN
REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST SOUS JACENTES. UN SECOND PIC D'INTENSITE
APPARAIT PLAUSIBLE DES QUE LE CYCLE SERA TERMINEE. IL EST IMPORTANT
DE NOTER QUE LE TIMING DE LA FIN DU CYCLE EST INCERTAIN ... POUR
L'INSTANT, LA PREVISION TABLE SUR UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION EN COURS DE
JOURNEE DE DEMAIN.

UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANC RESTE ENVISAGE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC
LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST.=

2018-01-29 19:31

WTIO30 FMEE 291858

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 80.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 330 SW: 330 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF THIS EVENING CLEARLY SHOW THAT CEBILE IS
UNDERGOING EN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). AN OUTER RING OF
CONVECTION IS NOW ENCOMPASSING THE TINY INNER CORE THAT SHOW SOME
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS NOW ON A WEAKENING TREND AND THE
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT HAS BEEN PUT JUST BELOW ALL DVORAK ESTIMATES.

CEBILE TRACKS HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BEND WESTWARDS DUE TO THE
REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE IN ITS
SOUTH-WESTERN PART. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN.
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCALIZATION
OF THE TURN (UKMO REMAINS AN OUTLIER TO THE EAST) BUT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD MOTION ARE STILL NOTED AMONG THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. LATEST AVAILABLE NWP (INCLUDING SOME OF THE 12Z CYCLE) SHOW
A FASTER TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AND SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE ERC IS LIKELY TEMPORARILY. AS
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARDS, IT WILL MOVE THROUGH A NEAR PERFECT
ENVIRONMENT IN TERM OF SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC
CONTAIN (IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNDER THE SYSTEM AS LONG AS IT
MOVE WEST OF 80E AND STAY NORTH OF 18S). IT SHOULD ALLOW THE
INNER-CORE TO BE PROTECTED FROM THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALTHOUGH THE
SLOW FORWARD MOTION. THE MOTION IS HYPOTHESIZED TO BE FAST ENOUGH
TO PREVENT SELF-INDUCED OCEANIC COOLING. A SECOND PEAK OF INTENSITY
APPEAR NOW LIKELY PENDING ON WHEN THE ERC WILL END. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON THAT POINT AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPOSED THAT
INTENSIFICATION MAY RESUME TOMORROW.

A CLEAR WEAKENING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE.=

2018-01-29 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 291823
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 80.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
16.0 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-29 13:01

WTIO31 FMEE 291229

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 81.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 946 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 30/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0+ CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LE SYSTEME A CONNU UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC UN OEIL QUI S'EST BIEN RECHAUFFE MAIS QUI PERD
DE NOUVEAU EN DEFINITION DEPUIS 1030Z. LA CONFIGURATION EN IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDE A PEU EVOLUE (GCOM 0710Z) AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL DE
TRES PETITE TAILLE ET UNE BANDE DE CONVECTION INTENSE QUI S'ENROULE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE SUGGERANT QU'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL
PUISSE SE PRODUIRE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE NORD, VA
RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME, EN L'ORIENTANT TEMPORAIREMENT
VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE FAIBLIT DANS SA
PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCE DANS SON
NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR
CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE SYSTEME EST PREVU AMMORCER SON VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE,
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. PAR CONSEQUENT, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE. LES SEULS PARAMETRES
LIMITANT POURRAIENT ETRE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI EST REDUIT
AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN PUIS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
QUI DEVIENT TRES SEC A L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE
MARDI. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANC EST ENVISAGE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR
OUEST.=

2018-01-29 13:01

WTIO30 FMEE 291229

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 81.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, EYE HAS WARMED SUGGESTING A NEW PHASE OF
INTENSIFICATION BUT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED SINCE 1030Z. MICROWAVE
PATTERN HAS NOT MUCH EVOLVED (GCOM 0710Z) WITH A PINHOLE EYE AND AN
OUTER INTENSE CONVECTION BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE CENTRE SUGGESTING
THAT AN ERC COULD OCCUR.

CEBILE TRACKS SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION
OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF
CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG
WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE
VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO
THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE VERY GOOD. SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO KEEP A
SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSITY. THE LIMITING PARAMETERS SHOULD BE A REDUCED
OHC TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THEN A MID-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT
SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A CLEAR
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE.=

2018-01-29 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 291220
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 946 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 81.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
220 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
16.0 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-29 08:55

WTXS51 PGTW 290900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129072632
2018012906 07S CEBILE 010 01 220 06 SATL 015
T000 153S 0817E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD
115 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 159S 0808E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 163S 0798E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 164S 0789E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 164S 0781E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 167S 0767E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 174S 0761E 090 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD
175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 189S 0769E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-29 08:55

WTXS51 PGTW 290900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129072632
2018012906 07S CEBILE 010 01 220 06 SATL 015
T000 153S 0817E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 159S 0808E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 163S 0798E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 164S 0789E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 164S 0781E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 167S 0767E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 174S 0761E 090 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 189S 0769E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.9S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.3S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.4S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.4S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.9S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 731 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z, AND 301500Z.//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012906 153S 817E 110
0718012906 153S 817E 110
0718012906 153S 817E 110

2018-01-29 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 290900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.9S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-29 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.9S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.3S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.4S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.4S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.9S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 731 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE 0N A
COMPACT AND SUPER-DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 290353Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE (15-KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) ALONG-TRACK SSTS. THIS DYNAMIC
BALANCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MAINTAINING
THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, A COMPETING STEERING STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TRIGGER A
SOUTHWESTWARD RECURVE AS THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS STAGE, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
CAUSING GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
SPREAD OUT AT THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE RECARVATURE WITH EGRR AS THE LEFTMOST
OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z,
300900Z, AND 301500Z.//

2018-01-29 06:46

WTIO31 FMEE 290614

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3 S / 81.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 29/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0 CI=6.0

LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES INFRA-ROUGES MONTRENT LA REFORMATION
D'UN POINT CHAUD AU SEIN DU CDO TRES FROID. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE
LA NUIT (SSMIS 0032Z PUIS AMSUB 0157Z) REVELENT LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL
DE PETITE TAILLE AUTOUR DUQUEL S'ENTOURE UNE BANDE DE CONVECTION
INTENSE CE QUI POURRAIT SUGGERER QU'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE
L'OEIL (ERC) SOIT EN COURS. EN ATTENDANT LA CONFIRMATION DE L'ERC,
L'ESTIMATION INTENSITE RESTE EVALUE A 100 KT, SOIT UNE INTENSITE
LEGEREMENT INFERIEURE A CELLE ESTIMEE PAR LES TECHNIQUES OBJECTIVES
DE DVORAK(ADT, AMSU, SATCON).

LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT
DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE
NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE, EN L'ORIENTANT
TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE
FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE
RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON
DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE
ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE
DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE,
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONSERVER UNE
INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE. LES SEULS PARAMETRES LIMITANT POURRAIENT
ETRE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI EST REDUIT AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN PUIS
UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI DEVIENT TRES SEC A
L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE MARDI. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PLUS FRANC EST ENVISAGE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST.=

2018-01-29 06:46

WTIO30 FMEE 290614

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 81.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=6.0

LAST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW THE RE-FORMATION OF AN HOT
POINT WITHIN THE COLD CDO. THIS NIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (0032Z
SSMIS AND THEN 0157Z AMSUB) REVEAL A PINHOLE AND AN OUTER INTENSE
CONVECTION BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE CENTRE THAT COULD SUGGEST THAT
AN ERC COULD OCCUR. WAITING THE ERC CONFIRMATION, INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT REMAINS AT 100 KT, SLIGHTLY BELOW THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ASSESSMENT (ADT, AMSU, SATCON).

CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION
OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF
CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG
WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE
VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO
THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND DIVERGENCE
VERY GOOD. SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO KEEP A SIGNIFICANTLY
INTENSITY. THE LIMITING PARAMETERS SHOULD BE A REDUCED OHC TODAY AND
TOMORROW AND THEN A MID-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT SPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A CLEAR WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE.=

2018-01-29 06:16

WTIO20 FMEE 290609
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 81.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 18 UTC:
15.9 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-29 03:16

WTXS51 PGTW 290300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129023858
2018012900 07S CEBILE 009 01 230 08 SATL 030
T000 148S 0821E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 130 SE QD
120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 156S 0811E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 161S 0803E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 164S 0794E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 165S 0786E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 165S 0772E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 168S 0762E 090 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD
175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 186S 0769E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-29 03:16

WTXS51 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129023858
2018012900 07S CEBILE 009 01 230 08 SATL 030
T000 148S 0821E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 156S 0811E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 161S 0803E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 164S 0794E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 165S 0786E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 165S 0772E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 168S 0762E 090 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 186S 0769E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 82.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 82.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.6S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.1S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.4S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.8S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.6S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900, 291500Z, 292100, AND 300300Z.//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110
0718012900 148S 821E 110

2018-01-29 03:16

WTXS31 PGTW 290300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 82.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 82.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.6S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-29 03:16

WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 82.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 82.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.6S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.1S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.4S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.8S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.6S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
INDICATES THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS STALLED OR ENDED,
AS THE EYE FILLED. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE EYE MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM. A 290040Z GPM 89 GHZ PASS
STILL SHOWS A PIN-HOLE MICROWAVE EYE WITH GOOD SPIRAL BANDING OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITIES REMAIN T6.0, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 110 KNOTS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEGRADATION OF CORE CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS
LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS); HOWEVER, OUTFLOW HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE WANING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS CEBILE HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR 110-115 KNOTS BEFORE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEGINS AS OCEANIC
SUPPORT BEGINS TO DROP. TC 07S IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. CEBILE IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON
A MORE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, A COMPETING STR TO THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN SLOWING FORWARD MOTION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN STR, ALLOWING A POLEWARD TURN.
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A BI-FURCATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH THE
UKMET MODELS INDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST IS PLACED WITH THE WESTERN SOLUTION SET BECAUSE DATA DOES
NOT SUPPORT A STRONG RE-CURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST
TRACK WAS ADJUSTED FURTHER WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
ADJUST FOR THE EASTERN OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE SHARP BI-FURCATION IN
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND
300300Z.//

2018-01-29 01:16

WTIO31 FMEE 290021

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 82.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 29/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 30/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5 CI=6.0.

APRES AVOIR CONNU UNE INTENSIFICATION EXTREMEMENT RAPIDE HIER(GAIN DE
65 KT EN 24H !) CEBILE SEMBLE AVOIR ATTEINT UN MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE.
APRES AVOIR PRESENTE OEIL BIEN ROND TRES CHAUD AU SEIN D'UNE CDO
SYMETRIQUE ET TRES FROID, DURANT LES TOUTES DERNIERES HEURES LA
PRESENTATION NUAGEUSE S'EST RAPIDEMMENT DETERIORE AVEC NOTAMMENT LA
DISPARITION DE L'OEIL EN IMAGERIE SATELLITE. CETTE VARIATION RAPIDE
SEMBLE ETRE DU A L'ARRIVVE SUR LES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
MOINDRE. CEBILE EST UN CYCLONE DONT LE COEUR EST DE PETITE TAILLE, CE
QUI FAVORISE CES CHANGEMENTS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE.


LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT
DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE
NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE, EN L'ORIENTANT
TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE
FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE
RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON
DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE
ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE
DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE,
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE, MAIS LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER SUR DES
ZONES OU LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE. DE PLUS, A PARTIR DE
MARDI, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENT TRES SEC A
L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU SYSTEME. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EST ALORS
ENVISAGE QUI POURRAIT S'ACCELERER EN FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST.=

2018-01-29 01:16

WTIO30 FMEE 290021

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 82.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/29 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0.

AFTER A EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY, CEBILE SEEMS TO
HAVE REACHED A MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY SHOWING A CIRCULAR EYE VERY HOT
WITHIN A SYMETRIC CDO VERY COLD. THEN IN THE VERY LAST HOURS THE
CLOUD PRESENTATION HAS QUICKLY DETERIORED WITH IN PARTICULAR THE
LOSS OF THE EYE. THIS QUICK EVOLUTION SEEMS TO BE DU TO THE ARRIVAL
OVER SEAS OF REDUCE ENERGICAL POTENTIAL. CEBILE IS A SMALL INNER CORE
SYSTEM AND THAT FEATURE FAVOR RAPID INTENSITY CHANGE.

CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION
OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF
CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG
WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE
VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO
THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND DIVERGENCE
VERY GOOD. HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IS LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR
INCREASE.=

2018-01-29 00:31

WTIO20 FMEE 290016
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 82.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
16.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-28 21:01

WTXS51 PGTW 282100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128201101
2018012818 07S CEBILE 008 01 225 07 SATL 030
T000 143S 0827E 115 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD
115 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 151S 0818E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD
125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 158S 0809E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 162S 0800E 120 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD
140 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 164S 0795E 120 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 166S 0786E 110 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 168S 0775E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 175 SE QD
165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 176S 0773E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD
165 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-28 21:01

WTXS51 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128201101
2018012818 07S CEBILE 008 01 225 07 SATL 030
T000 143S 0827E 115 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 151S 0818E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 158S 0809E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 162S 0800E 120 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 164S 0795E 120 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 166S 0786E 110 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 168S 0775E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 176S 0773E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 82.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 82.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.1S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.2S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.4S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.6S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.8S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.6S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z,291500, 292100Z AND 300300.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012806 133S 840E 75
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012812 138S 832E 95
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115
0718012818 143S 827E 115

2018-01-28 21:01

WTXS31 PGTW 282100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 82.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 82.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.1S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-28 21:01

WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 82.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 82.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.1S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.2S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.4S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.6S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.8S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.6S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 12 NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES OF THE EIR EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. AN ANALYSIS OF
281900Z IMAGERY INDICATES 07S IS STILL INTENSIFYING AND MAY NOW BE
T6.5 TO T7.0. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS, WHICH INDICATES CEBILE HAS TRACKED INTO AN AREA OF
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS MAINTAINING ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT AMPLE DEEP
MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, AND AN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC)
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS TRACKING OVER A REGION OF ENHANCED OHC.
TC 07S IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. CEBILE IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH, HOWEVER, A COMPETING STR TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN SLOWING
FORWARD MOTION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN
THE SOUTHERN STR, ALLOWING A POLEWARD TURN. DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A
BI-FURCATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH THE UKMET MODELS INDICATING
SHARP RECURVATURE BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
THE WESTERN SOLUTION SET BECAUSE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A STRONG RE-
CURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. AS NOTED ABOVE, TC CEBILE IS STILL
RAPIDLY INTENSFYING, WITH T6.5 TO T7.0 EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. BEYOND THAT, THERE IS NOTHING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO
WARRANT A DROP IN INTENSITY OTHER THAN NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS AND
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), HOWEVER, NO ERC IS
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. BEYOND TAU 48, WEAKENING OCEANIC SUPPORT AND
INCREASING VWS WILL RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. DUE TO THE SHARP BI-
FURCATION IN DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND
300300Z.//

2018-01-28 18:46

WTIO31 FMEE 281832

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 82.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.0/D 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 29/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 29/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=6.0-.

CEBILE A CONNU UNE INTENSIFICATION EXTREMEMENT RAPIDE AUJOURD'HUI
(GAIN DE 65 KT EN 24H !). DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL A
CONTINUE DE GAGNER EN DEFINITION, ET A SE RECHAUFFER, LE CDO SEMBLE
AVOIR GAGNER EN SYNMETRIE. CEBILE EST UN CYCLONE DONT LE COEUR EST DE
PETITE TAILLE, CE QUI FAVORISE CES CHANGEMENTS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE.


LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT
DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE
NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE, EN L'ORIENTANT
TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE
FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE
RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON
DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE
ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE
DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE,
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE
SON INTENSIFICATION DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. CEPENDANT, CEBILE VA
TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE. DE
PLUS, A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
DEVIENT TRES SEC A L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU SYSTEME. UN ARRET DE
L'INTENSIFICATION ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EST ALORS ENVISAGE QUI
POURRAIT S'ACCELERER EN FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST. LA DYNAMIQUE INTERNE (CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL) POURRAIT AUSSI INTERVENIR ET MODULER
L'INTENSITE DU PHENOMENE, MAIS CES MECANISMES N'ONT QU'UNE TRES
FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE.=

2018-01-28 18:46

WTIO30 FMEE 281832

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 82.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/29 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-.

CEBILE UNDERWENT EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS (+65 KT !). DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AND WARMING, THE CDO SEEMS TO BE MORE SYMETRIC
. CEBILE IS A SMALL INNER CORE SYSTEM AND THAT FEATURE FAVOR RAPID
INTENSITY CHANGE.

CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION
OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF
CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG
WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE
VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO
THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIRST MAINTAIN INTENSIFICATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND DIVERGENCE VERY GOOD.
HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS
LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START BY THAT TIME A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR
INCREASE. INTERNAL DYNAMICS (EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) MAY ALSO
MODULATE THE INTENSITY BUT THIS MECHANISM HAS VERY LOW
PREDICTABILITY.=

2018-01-28 18:46

WTIO20 FMEE 281810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 82.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 06 UTC:
15.1 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 18 UTC:
15.8 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-28 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 281500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128133652
2018012812 07S CEBILE 007 01 240 11 SATL 015
T000 139S 0830E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD
100 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 150S 0820E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD
130 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 158S 0812E 120 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD
140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 163S 0805E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD
145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 165S 0798E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD
145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 168S 0788E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 173S 0783E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD
180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 182S 0787E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD
190 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-28 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128133652
2018012812 07S CEBILE 007 01 240 11 SATL 015
T000 139S 0830E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 150S 0820E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 158S 0812E 120 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 163S 0805E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 165S 0798E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 168S 0788E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 173S 0783E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 182S 0787E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD 190 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 83.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 83.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.0S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.8S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.3S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.8S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.3S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.2S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 741 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z,
290900Z AND 291500Z.//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 45
0718012806 133S 840E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 65
0718012812 139S 830E 90
0718012812 139S 830E 90
0718012812 139S 830E 90

2018-01-28 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 281500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 83.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 83.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.0S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-28 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 83.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 83.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.0S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.8S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.3S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.8S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.3S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.2S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 741 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND HAS DEVELOPED A 15-NM
RAGGED EYE. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STILL UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
NORTHERLY VWS CAUSING THE EYE TO BE TILTED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 181101Z SSMIS PARTIAL
MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, STEERED BY THE
STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS VWS
DECREASES AND GOOD OUTFLOW PERSISTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE
WILL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. THE STR TO THE EAST WILL
EVENTUALLY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. TC CEBILE
WILL PEAK AT 125 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 36-48 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO
RE-INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE NEAR TO MID TERM BUT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//

2018-01-28 13:31

WTIO31 FMEE 281306

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8 S / 83.2 E
(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 3.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SO: 340 NO: 180
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 29/01/2018 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 29/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 30/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5+

CEBILE A CONNU UNE INTENSIFICATION EXTREMEMENT RAPIDE AUJOURD'HUI
(GAIN DE 65 KT EN 24H !). CET APRES-MIDI, L'OEIL A CONTINUE DE GAGNER
EN DEFINITION, A SE CONTRACTER ET A SE RECHAUFFER. CEBILE EST UN
CYCLONE DONT LE COEUR EST DE PETITE TAILLE, CE QUI FAVORISE CES
CHANGEMENTS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE. LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE
EST BASEE SUR L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK DU CMRS OU LES CONTRAINTES EN 6H
ONT MALGRE TOUT ETE RESPECTEES (PAS SUR LES AUTRES PAS DE TEMPS). IL
N'EST PAS IMPOSSIBLE QUE CETTE ESTIMATION SOIT UN PEU CONSERVATIVE
COMPTE TENU DE L'ANGLE DE VUE ASSEZ IMPORTANT DE MSG-1 SUR CE
SYSTEME. L'ADT OSCILLE ENTRE 6.1 ET 6.3 EN DT BRUT DEPUIS 0845Z,
MOMENT OU IL A CORRECTEMENT POSITIONNE LE CENTRE. L'ESTIMATION NON
CORRIGEE AMSU DE 1012Z A 89 KT (VENTS 1 MIN) EST PROBABLEMENT TROP
BASSE EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR CHAUD SUR LES PRODUITS
AMSU.

LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT
DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE
NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE, EN L'ORIENTANT
TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE
FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE
RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON
DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE
ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE
DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES ET LES CHANGEMENTS SONT MINEURES PAR
RAPPORT A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE
PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS. CEPENDANT, CEBILE VA TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE. DE PLUS, A PARTIR DE MARDI,
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENT TRES SEC A L'OUEST ET
AU NORD DU SYSTEME. UN ARRET DE L'INTENSIFICATION ET UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EST ALORS ENVISAGE QUI POURRAIT S'ACCELERER EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
OUEST. LA DYNAMIQUE INTERNE (CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL)
POURRAIT AUSSI INTERVENIR ET MODULER L'INTENSITE DU PHENOMENE, MAIS
CES MECANISMES N'ONT QU'UNE TRES FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE (TRES COURT
TERME SEULEMENT)=

2018-01-28 13:31

WTIO30 FMEE 281306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 83.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE
DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 3.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 340 NW: 180
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/29 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/29 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

CEBILE UNDERWENT EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS (+65 KT !). THIS AFTERNOON, THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED, AS IT HAS CONTRACTING AND WARMING. CEBILE IS A SMALL
INNER CORE SYSTEM AND THAT FEATURE FAVOR RAPID INTENSITY CHANGE. THE
CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RSMC DVORAK
ANALYSIS WHERE 6HR CONSTRAINT ON FT HAS BEEN APPLIED (CONSTRAINT ON
FT VARIATION IN 12, 18 AND 24 HOURS ARE BROKEN). THE INTENSITY AT 95
KT MAY BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE RATHER SIGNIFICANT
SATELLITE VIEWING ANGLE WITH MSG-1. RAW ADT IS BETWEEN 6.1 AND 6.3
SINCE THE TIME THE EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN DETECTED (0845Z). THE
NON-CORRECTED AMSU ESTIMATES AT 89 KT (1 MIN WINDS) AT 1012Z IS
LIKELY TOO LOW GIVEN THE SMALL INNER-CORE OF CEBILE SEEN ON AMSU
PRODUCT.

CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION
OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF
CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG
WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE
VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO
THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIRST MAINTAIN INTENSIFICATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK. HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON
AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE
SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY
SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START
BY THAT TIME A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASE. INTERNAL DYNAMICS (EYE
WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) MAY ALSO MODULATE THE INTENSITY BUT THIS
MECHANISM HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY (VERY SHORT RANGE)=

2018-01-28 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 281226
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 83.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
14.8 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
15.7 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-28 08:16

WTXS51 PGTW 280900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128072211
2018012806 07S CEBILE 006 01 220 09 SATL 020
T000 133S 0840E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 145S 0830E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 154S 0822E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD
130 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 160S 0815E 095 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 163S 0808E 105 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 155 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 166S 0798E 110 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 171S 0790E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 177S 0790E 095 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-28 08:16

WTXS51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128072211
2018012806 07S CEBILE 006 01 220 09 SATL 020
T000 133S 0840E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 145S 0830E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 154S 0822E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 160S 0815E 095 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 163S 0808E 105 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 166S 0798E 110 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 171S 0790E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 177S 0790E 095 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 84.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.5S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.4S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.0S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.3S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.6S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 774 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z, AND 290900Z.//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 848E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 45
0718012806 133S 840E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 65
0718012806 133S 840E 65

2018-01-28 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 280900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 84.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.5S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-28 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 84.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.5S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.4S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.0S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.3S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.6S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 774 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A DIMPLE FEATURE - PRELUDE TO AN EYE
AS IT RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AMBIGUITY PRODUCT DERIVED FROM A BULLSEYE 280415Z ASCAT PASS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T4.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY
IMPROVED AS IT MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS AND WAS ENHANCED BY
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ITS STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE
VWS VECTOR. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK,
STEERED BY THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY
AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE
WILL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. TC CEBILE WILL PEAK AT 105
KNOTS NEAR TAU 96 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO RE-INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT IN THE MID TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, LENDING AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z, AND 290900Z.//

2018-01-28 07:16

WTIO31 FMEE 280656

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/5/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 84.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 28/01/2018 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 29/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 29/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5

LES IMAGES EN HRV MSG-1 ONT MONTRE CE MATIN UNE EVOLUTION RAPIDE
D'UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL
EN PLACE DEPUIS 0400Z ENVIRON. L'OEIL DE 15-20 MN EST ENCORE ASSEZ
DECHIQUETTE ACTUELLEMENT. LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST
BASEE SUR L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS. LES AUTRES ESTIMATIONS
DISPONIBLES A 06 UTC VONT DE 57 KT A 80 KT (VENTS 10 MIN). LE SATCON
DE 0207Z EST A 78 KT (VENTS 1 MIN).

LA TRAJECTOIRE A PRIS UNE DIRECTION SUD-SUD-OUEST ET PLACE CEBILE
SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS FAIBLE, FAVORABLE A UNE
POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD QUI
SE RENFORCE DANS SA PARTIE EST, CEBILE EST PREVU POURSUITE UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT. PAR LA SUITE, LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON
EXTENSION VERS LE NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE. PUIS EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE
CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU
DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME ET PAR CONSEQUENT SUR LA REGION OU LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE
PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS. CEPENDANT, CEBILE VA TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE. DE PLUS, A PARTIR DE MARDI,
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENT TRES SEC A L'OUEST ET
AU NORD DU SYSTEME. UN ARRET DE L'INTENSIFICATION ET UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EST ALORS ENVISAGE QUI POURRAIT S'ACCELERER EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
OUEST. LA DYNAMIQUE INTERNE (CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL)
POURRAIT AUSSI INTERVENIR ET MODULER L'INTENSITE DU PHENOMENE, MAIS
CES MECANISMES N'ONT QU'UNE TRES FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE (TRES COURT
TERME SEULEMENT)=

2018-01-28 07:16

WTIO30 FMEE 280656

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/28 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/29 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

MSG1 HRV IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE RAPID EVOLUTION FROM A CURVED BAND
PATTERN TO AN EYE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN REACHED AROUND 0400Z. THE
15-20 NM WIDE EYE IS STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED CURRENTLY. THE ANALYZED
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RSMC DVORAK ANALYSIS. OTHER DVORAK ESTIMATS
RANGE AT 06Z BETWEEN 57 KT TO 80 KT (10 MIN WINDS). AT 0207Z, THE
SATCON IS AT 78 KT (1 MIN WINDS).

CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD AND IS PLACED UNDER A WEAK
SHEAR, WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE REBUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST, CEBILE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH-WESTWARD, ACCELERATING. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW
THE MOVEMENT OF CEBILE. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS
TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER
THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY
MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, AND ALSO ON THE AREA WHERE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIRST MAINTAIN INTENSIFICATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK. HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON
AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE
SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY
SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START
BY THAT TIME A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASE. INTERNAL DYNAMICS (EYE
WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) MAY ALSO MODULATE THE INTENSITY BUT THIS
MECHANISM HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY (VERY SHORT RANGE)=

2018-01-28 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 280614
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 18 UTC:
14.4 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 06 UTC:
15.5 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-28 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 280300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128022623
2018012800 07S CEBILE 005 01 180 08 SATL 060
T000 126S 0846E 045 R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 136S 0840E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
105 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 149S 0830E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD
120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 156S 0822E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 161S 0815E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 155 SE QD
140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 165S 0801E 095 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 165 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 170S 0791E 095 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD
165 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 178S 0788E 095 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

2018-01-28 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128022623
2018012800 07S CEBILE 005 01 180 08 SATL 060
T000 126S 0846E 045 R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 136S 0840E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 149S 0830E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 156S 0822E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 161S 0815E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 165S 0801E 095 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 170S 0791E 095 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 178S 0788E 095 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.9S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.6S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.1S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.5S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.8S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 787 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 846E 45
0718012800 126S 846E 45

2018-01-28 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 280300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.9S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-28 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.9S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.6S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.1S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.5S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.8S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 787 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING SYMMETRICALLY AROUND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 272224Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION OF TC 07S HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY-STATE FOR THE LAST 6
HOURS, AND GIVEN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER, CONTINUED STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS DECREASES IN THE COMING DAY. THE SYSTEM TOOK AN
UNEXPECTED JOG TOWARD THE SOUTH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AROUND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 96, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TAU 72, SO THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
//

2018-01-28 00:31

WTIO31 FMEE 280016

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/5/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E
(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 28/01/2018 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 29/01/2018 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 29/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 30/01/2018 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5+

DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS
LA MASSE EVOLUE ET LAISSE APPARAITRE UN DEBUT DE FORMATION D'OEIL
SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. LA CONVECTION RESTE CEPENDANT
PREDOMINANTE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DU SYSTEME.

LA TRAJECTOIRE A PRIS UNE DIRECTION SUD-SUD-OUEST ET PLACE CEBILE
SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS FAIBLE, FAVORABLE A UNE
POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD QUI
SE RENFORCE DANS SA PARTIE EST, CEBILE EST PREVU POURSUITE UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT. PAR LA SUITE, LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE DANS SA PARTIE SUD-OUEST VA RALENTIR LE
DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE FAIBLIT
DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON DE LA GRANDE
VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME ET PAR
CONSEQUENT SUR LA REGION OU LE SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET
REPARTIR VERS L'EST.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE
PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT. CEPENDANT,
CEBILE TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE.
CELA EST D'AUTANT PLUS VRAI LORS DU RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE CE QUI
DEVRAIT INDUIRE L'ARRET DE L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME AU MOMENT DU
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST MALGRE DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES
ENVIRONNEMENTALES TRES FAVORABLES.=

2018-01-28 00:31

WTIO30 FMEE 280016

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/28 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/29 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/29 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CONFIGURATION EVOLVES WITH A
BEGINNING OF FORMATION OF EYE ON THE LATEST INFRARED DATA. HOWEVER
CONVECTION REMAINS PREDOMINANT IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.

CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD AND IS PLACED UNDER A WEAK
SHEAR, WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE REBUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST, CEBILE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH-WESTWARD, ACCELERATING. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE IN
ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF CEBILE. AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN ITS SOUTH-EAST PART ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE
INCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK UP TO MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE
VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT, AND ALSO ON THE AREA WHERE THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STOP, THE RESTART EASTWARD.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK. HOWEVER, CEBILE TRANSITS ON AREAS
WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. THIS IS ALL THE MORE TRUE DURING
THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE'S TRACK WHICH SHOULD INDUCE THE STOPPING OF
THE INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT OF THE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST,
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.=

2018-01-28 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 280005
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 12 UTC:
13.8 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
14.8 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-27 21:31

WTXS51 PGTW 272100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127202137
2018012718 07S CEBILE 004 01 225 06 SATL 060
T000 118S 0844E 045 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 128S 0835E 055 R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 137S 0826E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD
100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 145S 0816E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 125 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 150S 0809E 080 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 152S 0801E 090 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD
130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 152S 0796E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 145 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 154S 0793E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
145 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

2018-01-27 21:31

WTXS51 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127202137
2018012718 07S CEBILE 004 01 225 06 SATL 060
T000 118S 0844E 045 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 128S 0835E 055 R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 137S 0826E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 145S 0816E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 150S 0809E 080 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 152S 0801E 090 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 152S 0796E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 154S 0793E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 145 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.8S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.0S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.2S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.4S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 84.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300 280900Z 281500 AND 282100Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 848E 35
0718012712 114S 848E 35
0718012718 118S 844E 45

2018-01-27 21:31

WTXS31 PGTW 272100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.8S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-27 21:31

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.8S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.0S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.2S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.4S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 84.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION SYMMETRICALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 07S, WITH OVERSHOOTING
TOPS NEAR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND STORM MOTION IS
DETERMINED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AS
WELL AS A 271611Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS OF 45 KNOTS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WARM
WATERS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 DEGREES C, WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) THAT IS
DECREASING ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED TO THE EAST, BUT IS GOOD IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. AS THE
VWS DECREASES, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS
WHILE BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS TO ITS SOUTH.
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
COMPLICATED AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR, BUT GLOBAL
MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS TURNS TC 07S TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH
AT TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GREATER SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
//

2018-01-27 21:31

WTIO31 FMEE 271826

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/5/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.1 S / 85.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 28/01/2018 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 28/01/2018 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 29/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 29/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PRESENTE UNE FORTE
BOUFFEE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. LA CONFIGURATION LEGEREMENT
CISAILLEE S'ESTOMPE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU PROFIT D'UNE CONFIGURATION
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE AU COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS. CELA
SITUE ALORS LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION EN BORDURE IMMEDIATE DE LA
CONVECTION LA PLUS PROFONDE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1527UTC PERMET DE
VALIDER DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT LES 35KT DANS LA PARTIE NORD DU SYSTEME.
EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME 05 A ETE BAPTISE CEBILE PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN A 1700UTC.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE S'ORIENTE MAINTENANT SUD ET PLACE LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS DE
L'ORDRE DE 15KT, FAVORABLE A UNE POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD QUI SE RENFORCE DANS SA PARTIE EST,
CEBILE EST PREVU PRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST EN
ACCELERANT. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE DANS SA
PARTIE SUD-OUEST VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE. PUIS EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST PERMETTANT AU
SYSTEME DE PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE UNE
GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN
RAISON DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES DETERMINISTE MAIS EGALEMENT DANS
LES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLE ET PAR CONSEQUENT SUR LA REGION OU LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS L'EST.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE FAIBLIT PLUS
FRANCHEMENT, PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT.
CEPENDANT, CEBILE TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
EST MOINDRE. CELA EST D'AUTANT PLUS VRAI LORS DU RALENTISSEMENT DE
CEBILE CE QUI DEVRAIT INDUIRE L'ARRET DE L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
AU MOMENT DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST.=

2018-01-27 21:31

WTIO30 FMEE 271826

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 85.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/28 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/28 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/29 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS A STRONG BOOST IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LIGHTLY SHEARED CONFIGURATION IS WEAKENING
AND PROGRESSIVELY BECOMES IN A CDO CONFIGURATION DURING LATEST
MOMENTS. THIS SITUATED THEN THE CENTER IN IMMEDIATE EDGE OF THE MOST
DEEP CONVECTION. THE 1527UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOW TO VALIDATE WINDS
REACHING UP 35KT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY,
SYSTEM 05 HAS NAMED CEBILE BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
AT 1700UTC.

CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH AND IS PLACED UNDER A SHEAR ABOUT 15KT,
ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS DATA, WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD, ACCELERATING. THEN THE
REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE
MOVEMENT OF CEBILE. AND IN THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN
ITS SOUTH-EAST PART ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE INCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK UP TO MONDAY
MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, AND ALSO ON THE AREA WHERE
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STOP, THE RESTART EASTWARD.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT WEAKEN MORE FRANKLY. HOWEVER, CEBILE TRANSITS
ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. THIS IS ALL THE MORE
TRUE DURING THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE'S TRACK WHICH SHOULD INDUCE THE
STOPPING OF THE INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT OF THE TURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.=

2018-01-27 21:31

WTIO20 FMEE 271803
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 85.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
13.1 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 18 UTC:
14.3 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-27 14:16

WTXS51 PGTW 271500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127131537
2018012712 07S SEVEN 003 01 190 07 SATL 020
T000 117S 0845E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 128S 0840E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 138S 0830E 045 R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 145S 0821E 050 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 151S 0811E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 154S 0801E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD
135 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 156S 0795E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD
140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 158S 0791E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD
145 SW QD 105 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-01-27 14:16

WTXS51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127131537
2018012712 07S SEVEN 003 01 190 07 SATL 020
T000 117S 0845E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 128S 0840E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 138S 0830E 045 R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 145S 0821E 050 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 151S 0811E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 154S 0801E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 156S 0795E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 158S 0791E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.8S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.8S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.5S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.1S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.4S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 846E 35
0718012712 117S 845E 35

2018-01-27 14:16

WTXS31 PGTW 271500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.8S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.8S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-27 14:16

WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.8S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.8S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.5S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.1S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.4S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINED A BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 270858Z 85 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AND
FROM THE CURRENT STORM MOTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) NORTHERLY VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY
STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE VWS
VECTOR. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THIS
STR EXTENSION BUILDS. AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST
COMPETES FOR STEERING. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS POLEWARD, PROMOTING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU
120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, IT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS
TOWARD THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LENDING AN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z,
280900Z AND 281500Z.//

2018-01-27 09:01

WTXS51 PGTW 270900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127081859
2018012706 07S SEVEN 002A 01 200 03 SATL 040
T000 110S 0846E 035 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 120S 0844E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 132S 0837E 045 R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 141S 0826E 050 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 145S 0817E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 148S 0805E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD
135 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 148S 0797E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD
140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 148S 0792E 090 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD
145 SW QD 105 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-01-27 09:01

WTXS51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127081859
2018012706 07S SEVEN 002A 01 200 03 SATL 040
T000 110S 0846E 035 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 120S 0844E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 132S 0837E 045 R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 141S 0826E 050 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 145S 0817E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 148S 0805E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 148S 0797E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 148S 0792E 090 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.1S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.5S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.8S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.8S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 84.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 103S 826E 30
0718012612 103S 831E 30
0718012618 105S 843E 30
0718012700 107S 847E 30
0718012706 110S 846E 35

2018-01-27 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 270900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-27 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.1S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.5S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.8S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.8S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 84.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE POSITION HAS BEEN
RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION
BASED ON A REASSESSMENT OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, THIS RELOCATION HAS NOT RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07S HAS
TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THIS PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TC 07S WILL TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE,
RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH NAVGEM AND THE UKMET MODEL DEPICT
TC 07S BASICALLY CONTINUING POLEWARD, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH NEVER BECOMING FULLY ESTABLISHED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. ALL OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN
FOLLOWED BY NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
ALTHOUGH OFFSET SLIGHTLY FROM THE LOWER PROBABILITY NAVGEM AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//

2018-01-27 02:16

WTXS51 PGTW 270300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127012348
2018012700 07S SEVEN 001 01 075 07 SATL 050
T000 098S 0853E 030
T012 106S 0858E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 118S 0852E 040 R034 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 128S 0842E 045 R034 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 136S 0833E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 143S 0819E 070 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD
095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 146S 0807E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 125 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 146S 0794E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

2018-01-27 02:16

WTXS51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127012348
2018012700 07S SEVEN 001 01 075 07 SATL 050
T000 098S 0853E 030
T012 106S 0858E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 118S 0852E 040 R034 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 128S 0842E 045 R034 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 136S 0833E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 143S 0819E 070 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 146S 0807E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 146S 0794E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 11.8S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.8S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.6S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.6S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.6S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 85.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 777 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//
0718012412 93S 792E 15
0718012418 93S 795E 15
0718012500 93S 798E 20
0718012506 93S 801E 25
0718012512 96S 807E 30
0718012518 98S 814E 30
0718012600 102S 821E 30
0718012606 106S 826E 30
0718012612 105S 832E 30
0718012618 100S 846E 30
0718012700 98S 853E 30

2018-01-27 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 270300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260121ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 11.8S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.8S 84.2E

2018-01-27 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260121ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 11.8S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.8S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.6S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.6S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.6S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 85.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 777 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL MASS OF CONVECTION COVERING UP A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 262147z MHS 89 GHZ SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING UNDER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. IN ADDITION, A PARTIAL
261633Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
CONVECTIVE MASS WITH FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL SHEAR ADJACENT TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT TAU 24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE BUILDING IN TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 07S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24
DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
PAST TAU 96, TC 07S WILL SLOW DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260130).//