Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DUMAZILE-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 080607
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 08/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DUMAZILE) 969 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 58.6 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 210 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 470 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 410 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 580 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
32.9 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
37.7 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 080021
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 08/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DUMAZILE) 967 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.9 S / 58.0 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 650 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 210 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 470 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 410 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 580 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/08 AT 12 UTC:
30.9 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/09 AT 00 UTC:
35.5 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 071832
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DUMAZILE) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.4 S / 56.9 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 650 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 210 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 470 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 260
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
29.7 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
32.6 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WINDS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING
VERY RECENT SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 071224
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DUMAZILE) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.8 S / 56.1 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 650 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 170 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 220
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/08 AT 00 UTC:
29.0 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/08 AT 12 UTC:
30.7 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 070651 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DUMAZILE) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 55.7 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 550 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 170 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 220
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 18 UTC:
28.3 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
29.9 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 070614
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DUMAZILE) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 55.7 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 550 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 170 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 220
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 170 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 220
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 18 UTC:
28.3 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
29.9 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 070009
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DUMAZILE) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.2 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 220
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 260 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 540 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
28.0 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/08 AT 00 UTC:
29.6 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061806

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 55.1 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 570 SE: 720 SO: 460 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 430 SO: 350 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 07/03/2018 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 08/03/2018 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 08/03/2018 18 UTC: 33.9 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 09/03/2018 06 UTC: 38.5 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 09/03/2018 18 UTC: 42.1 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU SUGGERE QUE LE SYSTEME INTERAGIT AVEC LE
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PRESENT DANS SON SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE DES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES EN COURS DANS LA NUIT. LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1512Z MONTRE QUE
LA CONVECTION PROFONDE EST MAINTENANT PRA SENTE SEULEMENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD.

LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE SYSTEME VA
ACCELERER SENSIBLEMENT, REPRIS PAR LA CIRCULATION RAPIDE DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES A L'AVANT D'UN VASTE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST PRA VU INTERARGIR
AVEC PLUSIEURS ONDULATIONS DU COURANT JET. LE SYSTEME VA ALORS
EVOLUER VERS UNE STRUCTURE DE SECLUSION CHAUDE AVEC UN COEUR CHAUD
QUI VA PERMETTRE DE MAINTENIR UNE CONVECTION ACTIVE MAIS PEU PROFONDE
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ACQUERIR DES CARACTA RISTIQUES FRONTALES PLUS MARQUA ES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061806

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 55.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE
DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 570 SE: 720 SW: 460 NW: 430
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 430 SW: 350 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/07 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/03/07 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/08 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/08 18 UTC: 33.9 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/09 06 UTC: 38.5 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/09 18 UTC: 42.1 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5-

WV IMAGERY STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO INTERACT WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH-WEST. THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START TO LOOSE PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
TONIGHT. 1512Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED
ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON ITS TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD
CIRCUMVENTING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. FROM THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE WITHIN THE QUICKLY MID-LATITUDES CIRCULATION AHEAD A WIDE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.


ALL ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO INTERACT WITH
SEVERAL JET STREACK ONDULATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
LIKE A WARM CORE SECLUSION PERMITTING TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSE BUT
SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. FROM WEDNESDAY, IT
SHOULD GAIN FRONTAL FEATURE MORE DEFINED.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 061805
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 55.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 230
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 310 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 06 UTC:
27.1 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 18 UTC:
28.8 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061317

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :69 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 570 SE: 720 SO: 460 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 430 SO: 350 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 09/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 09/03/2018 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2018 12 UTC: 51.0 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.5+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A CLAIREMENT EVOLUE CET
APRES-MIDI VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE ENCORE
INCLUS EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. EN SE BASANT SUR
L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DU CMRS, L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 70
KT. EN L'ABSENCE D'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTE, LA POSITION ANALYSEE
EST RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINE.

L'EVOLUTION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE TRADUIT UNE AUGMENTATION
SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST. L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU
SUGGERE QUE LE SYSTEME INTERAGIT AVEC LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PRESENT
DANS SON SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
COMMENCER A PERDRE DES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES EN COURS
DE NUIT PROCHAINE.

LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE. TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE,
IL RESTE, JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, EN INTERACTION FAVORABLE AVEC
UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE SITUE DANS SON SECTEUR OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS (COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE AU SEIN DE
LA CIRCULATION). A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL N'Y A PLUS DE PHASAGE AVEC LA
DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT
AVANT DE SE FONDRE DANS LA CIRCULATION D'OUEST. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE,
QUAND LE SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D'OUEST EN
DIRECTION DE L'ILE DE KERGUELEN QUI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE
DEGRADATION DU TEMPS EN FIN DE SEMAINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061317

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :69 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 570 SE: 720 SW: 460 NW: 430
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 430 SW: 350 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/07 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/03/07 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/08 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/08 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/09 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/09 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/10 12 UTC: 51.0 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5+

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED TOWARDS A SHEAR PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS. BASED ON RSMC SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE, THE
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. WITHOUT ANY RECENT MW IMAGERY, THE
ANALYSED POSITION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.

THE CLOUD PATTERN SHIFT DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL DEEP
LAYERS SHEAR. WV IMAGERY STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO
INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH-WEST.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START TO LOOSE PURE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON ITS TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD
CIRCUMVENTING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ALL ALONG THIS TRACK AND UP TO
FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVOURABLE POSITION WITH A DYNAMICAL
TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS WEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION (STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS). SATURDAY,
THE INTERACTION IS NO MORE FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO
FILL-UP AS IT WILL MERGE WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. THE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS RATHER WEAK, WHICH GIVES A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MID-LAT WESTERLIES TOWARDS
THE KERGUELEN ISLAND WHERE A DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 061225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO MORE THAN 550 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 230
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 310 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
26.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060705

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.2 S / 53.5 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :69 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 590 SO: 460 NO: 310
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : INCONNU

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 06/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 07/03/2018 18 UTC: 29.1 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 08/03/2018 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 08/03/2018 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 09/03/2018 06 UTC: 38.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2018 06 UTC: 46.6 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

LES MICRO-ONDES DE CE MATIN MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR CENTRAL DU SYSTEME
A COMMENCE A IMPLOSE AVEC UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL QUI N'EST PLUS
APPARENTE. SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, LA CONFIGURATION RESTE
GLOBALEMENT A CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE EN IR, ALORS QU'UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE A 1.1-1.2 TOUR APPARAIT EN VISIBLE
SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES. LA BOUEE 5601501 A TRANSITE DANS
L'OEIL DE DUMAZILE VERS 00-01 UTC ET A RELEVE UNE PRESSION CENTRALE
MINI A 953.7 HPA (CORRIGE DE LA MAREE BAROMETRIQUE).

L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU MONTRE QUE LA DIVERGENCE EST MAINTENANT TRES
FAIBLE COTE OUEST ALORS QU'ELLE RESTE EXCELLENTE COTE EST. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR OUEST APPARAIT ENCORE RAISONNABLE
(15-20 KT A 03 UTC) MAIS L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU SUGGERE QUE LE
SYSTEME A DEJA COMMENCE A INTERAGIR AVEC LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PRESENT
DANS SON SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. CETTE FRANCHE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT ACCELERER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU METEORE. DANS UN
MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE AVEC DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AU SUD
DE 27S, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES CARACTERISTIQUES
EXTRA-TROPICALES DA S MERCREDI.

LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE. JEUDI SOIR, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ
RAPIDE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE
PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, QUAND LE
SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D'OUEST EN DIRECTION
DE L'ILE DE KERGUELEN QUI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE DEGRADATION
SIGNIFICATIVE DU TEMPS EN FIN DE SEMAINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060705

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 53.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE
DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :69 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 590 SW: 460 NW: 310
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/06 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/07 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/07 18 UTC: 29.1 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/08 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/08 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/09 06 UTC: 38.3 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/10 06 UTC: 46.6 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

MW IMAGERY OF THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN THAT THE INNER-CORE OF THE
SYSTEM IS SEVERELY ERODED OVER THE NORTHERN PART. THE MW EYE PATTERN
HAS GONE. ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY, AN EMBEDDED PATTERN WAS MOST OF THE
TIME PRESENT ON IR IMAGERY AND VIS IMAGERY REVEAL A CURVED BAND AT
1.1-1.2 TOUR ON LOG10 SPIRAL ON THE VERY LAST IMAGES. THE BUOY
5601501 WENT THROUGH THE EYE OF DUMAZILE BETWEEN 00-01Z AND REPORTED
A MINIMAL PRESSURE OF 953.7 HPA (CORRECTED FROM THE BAROMETRIC TIDE).

WV LOOP SHOW ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN SIDE
WHILE POOR OR VERY LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN SIDE. WESTERLY SHEAR
APPEAR NOT SO STRONG BASED ON 03Z CIMSS ANALYSIS BUT THE WV IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH-WEST.THIS SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION
OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING.
WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, OVER COOLER WATERS
SOUTH OF 27S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO GAIN EXTRA-TROPICAL FEATURES
FROM WEDNESDAY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON ITS TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD
CIRCUMVENTING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.THURSDAY EVENING, A MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH CIRCULATING IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION. THE
MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS RATHER WEAK, WHICH GIVES A GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THIS TRACK FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MID-LAT
WESTERLIES TOWARDS THE KERGUELEN ISLAND WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 060633
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 53.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/06 AT 18 UTC:
25.8 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 06 UTC:
27.6 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060031

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.5 S / 52.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 954 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SO: 370 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 330 SO: 260 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 06/03/2018 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 09/03/2018 00 UTC: 35.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
DUMAZILE A PEU EVOLUE, AVEC UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. LES
ANALYSES DVORAK BRUTES SE SITUENT GLOBALEMENT AUTOUR DE 4.5. AU VU DE
L'EVOLUTION OBSERVEE EN IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES ET IR, L'INTENSITE A ETE
ABAISSEE A 80KT. LA PRESSION CENTRALE A ETE RECALEE GRACE AUX DONNEES
D'UNE BOUEE (5601501) QUI EST PASSEE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
LA POSITION PRECISE DE CE DERNIER RESTE INCERTAINE EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES FIABLES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST
TOUJOURS ANALYSE AUTOUR DE 15KT PAR LE CIMSS A 21Z.

LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE. JEUDI SOIR, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ
RAPIDE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE
PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, QUAND LE
SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D'OUEST.

CE MATIN, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST PILOTE LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR OUEST A
NORD-OUEST. CETTE FRANCHE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIT ACCELERER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU METEORE. DANS UN MILIEU DE
PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE AVEC DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AU SUD DE 27S, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES CARACTERISTIQUES
EXTRA-TROPICALES DA S MERCREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060031

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 52.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO
DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 370 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 330 SW: 260 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/06 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/07 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/07 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/08 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/08 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/09 00 UTC: 35.9 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, DUMAZILE CLOUD PATTERN BARELY EVOLVED, WITH
AN EMBEDDED CENTER. RAW DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE MOSTLY OSCILLATING
BETWEEN 4.5. IN ADDITION TO THE OBSERVED EVOLUTION IN MICROWAVE AND
IR IMAGERY, INTENSITY WAS DOWNGRADED TO 80KT. CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
READJUSTED THANKS TO 5601501 BUOY DATA, THAT WAS LOCATED VERY CLOSE
TO THE CENTER. THE PRECISE POSITION OF THE CENTER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE LACK OF RELIABLE DATA. NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEA IS STILL
ANALYSED AROUND 15KT BY CIMSS AT 21Z.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON ITS TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD
CIRCUMVENTING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.THURSDAY EVENING, A MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH CIRCULATING IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION. THE
MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS RATHER WEAK, WHICH GIVES A GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THIS TRACK FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS TAKEN AWAY BY THE MID-LATITUDES
WESTERLIES.

THIS MORNING, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL DRIVE
THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. THIS
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING. WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT, OVER COOLER WATERS SOUTH OF 27S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
TO GAIN EXTRA-TROPICAL FEATURES FROM WEDNESDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 060019
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 954 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 52.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
URRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN
A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/06 AT 12 UTC:
25.1 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
26.6 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 051815
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 52.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/06 AT 06 UTC:
24.5 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/03/06 AT 18 UTC:
25.9 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051223

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 51.7 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 460 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 06/03/2018 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 06/03/2018 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 31.2 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2018 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0+ CI=5.5-

DUMAZILE A CONNU SA MEILLEUR CONFIGURATION EN IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE
(IR) DE 0730Z A 0930Z MAIS AVEC TOUJOURS LA PRA SENCE D'UN OEIL
ALLONGA ET DA CHIQUETA . PEU AVANT, LA PASSE GPM DE 0530Z MONTRAIT
UNE LEGERE AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE.
MAIS DEPUIS 0930Z, LA CONFIGURATION IR S'EST NETTEMENT DEGRADEE.

LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT
LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE. JEUDI SOIR, LE PASSAGE D'UN
THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE
EVACUATION ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LA DISPERSION
DES MODELES RESTE PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE
DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, QUAND LE SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE
D'OUEST.

CETTE NUIT, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST PILOTE LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST
AU-DESSUS DU SYSTEME. CETTE FRANCHE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT ACCENTUER LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU METEORE.
DANS UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE AVEC DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES
AU SUD DE 27S, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES
CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICALES DA S MERCREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051223

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 51.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 460 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/06 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/06 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/07 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/07 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/08 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/08 12 UTC: 31.2 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/09 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5-

THE BEST INFRARED IMAGERY PATTERN WAS OBSERVED DURING 0730Z AND 0930Z
BUT WITH ALWAYS AN ELONGATED AND RAGGED EYE. A LITTLE BEFORE, THE
0530Z GPM MICROWAVE SWATH SHOWED A SLIGHTLY IMPROVEMENT OF THE
INTERNAL STRUCTURE. BUT SINCE 0930Z, INFRARED IMAGERY PATTERN HAS
CLEARLY DETERIORATED.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHSOUTHEAST
CIRCUMVENTING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.THURSDAY EVENING, A MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH CIRCULATING IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION. THE
MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS RATHER WEAK, WHICH GIVES A GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THIS TRACK FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS TAKEN AWAY BY THE MID-LATITUDES
WESTERLIES.

THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL DRIVE A
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT OVER THE
SYSTEM. THIS SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD ACCENTUATE THE WEAKENING PHASE OF THE METEOR AND CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER COOLER WATERS SOUTH OF 27S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM WEDNESDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 051213
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 51.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/06 AT 00 UTC:
23.8 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/03/06 AT 12 UTC:
25.2 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050624

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 51.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 460 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 05/03/2018 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 06/03/2018 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 06/03/2018 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 07/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 07/03/2018 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 08/03/2018 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2018 06 UTC: 36.7 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES ANIMATIONS DU SATELLITES
GEOSTATIONNAIRES ONT MONTRA UN OEIL DE PLUS EN PLUS APPARENT EN
CANAL VISIBLE ET DE PLUS EN PLUS CHAUD. CETTE EVOLUTION QUI MARQUE UN
RENFORCEMENT DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST A TEMPERE PAR UNE FORME DE
L'OEIL QUI RESTE GLOBALEMENT ALLONGA . DE MA ME, LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES DE LA FIN DE NUIT (37GHZ WINDSAT 0210Z, 0254Z SSMIS)
MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE QUI PEINE A SE CONSOLIDER COMPLA
TEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST QUI POURRAIT A TRE LA CONSEQUENCE
D'UNE INTERACTION AVEC LES HAUTS PLATEAUX DE MADAGASCAR.

ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PAR
L'OUEST, SA TRAJECTOIRE S'EST INCURVEE VERS LE SUD-EST EN FIN DE NUIT
ET DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST LA NUIT SUIVANTE. JEUDI
SOIR, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT
PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.
LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE
CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, QUAND LE SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION
PERTURBEE D'OUEST.

LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST TOUJOURS EXCELLENTE. DUMAZILE DEVRAIT
ENCORE DISPOSER DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A CE SOIR. CETTE NUIT, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR
L'OUEST PILOTE LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR
OUEST A NORD-OUEST AU-DESSUS DU SYSTEME. CETTE FRANCHE DEGRADATION
DES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT ENCLENCHER LA PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU METEORE ET SE POURSUIVRE MARDI ET MERCREDI. DANS
UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE AVEC DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AU
SUD DE 27S, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES
CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICALES EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050624

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 51.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 460 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/05 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/06 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/03/06 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/07 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/07 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/08 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/09 06 UTC: 36.7 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANIMATED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN AN EYE MORE AND MORE VISIBLE AND WARMER. HOWEVER, EYE REMAINS
OVERALL ELONGATED THAT IS LIMITING THE STRENGTHENING INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THE SAME WAY, THIS NIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (37GHZ 0210Z
WINDSAT, 0254Z SSMIS) SHOWED AN INTERNAL CORE NOT COMPLETELY
CONSOLIDATED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT THAT COULD BE ATTRIBUTE
TO AN INTERACTION WITH THE MADAGASCAR'S HIGHLANDS.

AS DUMAZILE CIRCUMVENTS THE WESTERN REGION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, ITS
HAS BENT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD
NEXT NIGHT. THURSDAY EVENING, A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH CIRCULATING IN
THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION. THE MODEL DISPERSION
REMAINS RATHER WEAK, WHICH GIVES A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS TAKEN AWAY BY THE MID-LATITUDES
WESTERLIES.

THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS STILL EXCELLENT. DUMAZILE WILL TRACK WITHIN
VERY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL DRIVE A
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT OVER THE
SYSTEM. THIS SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD INITIATE THE WEAKENING PHASE OF THE METEOR AND CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER COOLER WATERS SOUTH OF 27S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 050618
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 51.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HHURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
22.4 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/03/06 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050022

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 50.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 460 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 05/03/2018 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 06/03/2018 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 06/03/2018 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2018 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 10/03/2018 00 UTC: 46.2 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA BANDE INCURVEE S'EST REFERMEE ET
UN POINT CHAUD EST APPARU AU CENTRE DE SOMMETS NUAGEUX TOUJOURS TRES
FROIDS. CES PREMISSES DE STRUCTURE EN OEIL SONT EN TRAIN DE
S'AFFIRMER SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES IR.

ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PAR
L'OUEST, SA TRAJECTOIRE S'EST INCURVEE VERS LE SUD AU COURS DE LA
NUIT ET DEVRAIT CONTINUER A SE REDRESSER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST
AUJOURD'HUI. JEUDI SOIR, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS
LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE PLUTOT
FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, QUAND LE
SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D'OUEST.

LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST TOUJOURS EXCELLENTE. DUMAZILE DEVRAIT
ENCORE DISPOSER DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A CET APRES-MIDI. CE SOIR, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
PAR L'OUEST PILOTE LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE
SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST AU-DESSUS DU SYSTEME. CETTE FRANCHE
DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT ENCLENCHER LA PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU METEORE ET SE POURSUIVRE MARDI ET MERCREDI. DANS
UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE AVEC DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AU
SUD DE 27S, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES
CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICALES EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050022

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 50.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 460 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/05 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/06 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/03/06 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/03/07 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/07 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/08 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/09 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/10 00 UTC: 46.2 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND CLOSED ITSELF AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND A WARM SPOT APPEARED IN THE MIDDLE OF VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS. ON THE LAST IR IMAGES, THE EYE PATTERN TENDS TO
BECOME CLEARER.

AS DUMAZILE CIRCUMVENTS THE WESTERN REGION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, ITS
HAS BENT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TODAY. THURSDAY EVENING, A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH
CIRCULATING IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION. THE MODEL
DISPERSION REMAINS RATHER WEAK, WHICH GIVES A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS TAKEN AWAY BY THE MID-LATITUDES
WESTERLIES.

THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS STILL EXCELLENT. DUMAZILE WILL TRACK WITHIN
VERY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL
DRIVE A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT
OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD INITIATE THE WEAKENING PHASE OF THE METEOR AND
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER WATERS SOUTH OF 27S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN ITS POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 050010
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 50.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/05 AT 12 UTC:
22.2 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/03/06 AT 00 UTC:
23.8 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041824

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 50.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 410 SO: 300 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO:

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 05/03/2018 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 05/03/2018 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 06/03/2018 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 06/03/2018 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 07/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 07/03/2018 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2018 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 09/03/2018 18 UTC: 44.9 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5-

LE PSEUDO-OEIL QUI ETAIT APPARU VERS 12Z A RAPIDEMENT DISPARU,
REMPLACE PAR UNE BANDE INCURVEE QUI S'EST RAPIDEMENT ENROULEE TOUT EN
RESTANT ASSOCIEE A DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX TRES FROIDS. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES 37GHZ ISSUE DE LA PASSE WINDSAT DE 1459Z REVELE UN COEUR
CENTRAL EN COURS DE CONSOLIDATION. L'IMAGE 91GHZ SSMIS DE 1540Z
MONTRE QUE LA STRUCTURE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EST EGALEMENT EN
AMELIORATION AVEC UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION SUR LE POINT DE SE
REFERMER. EN ATTENTE DE L'APPARITION D'UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL MIEUX
DEFINIE QUI POURRAIT APPARAITRE SUR L'IMAGERIE IR EN COURS DE NUIT,
LE SYSTEME EST CONSERVE AU STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, DUMAZILE A POURSUIVI SA TRAJECTOIRE
SUD-SUD-OUEST, EN CONSERVANT UN DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN CONSTRUCTION A L'EST.
CETTE NUIT, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LA DORSALE PAR L'OUEST, SA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-SUD-EST
DEMAIN. JEUDI SOIR, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU
SUD DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI
DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST TOUJOURS EXCELLENTE. DUMAZILE DEVRAIT
ENCORE DISPOSER DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A LA MI-JOURNEE DE DEMAIN LUNDI. ENSUITE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST PILOTE LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST AU-DESSUS DU
SYSTEME. CETTE FRANCHE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE
ENCLENCHE LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU METEORE ET SE POURSUIT MARDI
ET MERCREDI. DANS UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE AVEC DES EAUX
PLUS FRAICHES AU SUD DE 27S, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PRENDRE
DES CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041824

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 50.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 410 SW: 300 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/05 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/05 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/03/06 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/03/06 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/07 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/07 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/08 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/09 18 UTC: 44.9 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

THE PSEUDO-EYE PATTERN THAT EMERGED AROUND 12Z QUICKLY DISAPPEARED,
REPLACED BY A CURVED BAND RAPIDLY WRAPPING AROUND DUMAZILE'S CENTER
WHILE CLOUD TOPS REMAINS VERY COLD. 37GHZ MW IMAGE FROM THE 1459Z
WINDSAT SWATH REVEALS AN ONGOING CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER-CORE.
1540Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS AN IMPROVING MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE
WITH AN ALMOST CLOSED CONVECTION RING. AWAITING THE EMERGENCE OF A
BETTER DEFINED EYE PATTERN THAT MIGHT APPEAR ON IR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT,
THE SYSTEM IS RETAINED AT THE MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

DURING THE LAST HOURS, DUMAZILE CONTINUED TO TRACK SOUTH
SOUTH-WESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TONIGHT, AS DUMAZILE CIRCUMVENTS THE RIDGE, ITS
TRACK SHOULD BEND SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TOMORROW. THURSDAY
EVENING, A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH CIRCULATING IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW
A QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS THE WESTERLIES CIRCULATION. THE MODEL
DISPERSION REMAINS RATHER WEAK, WHICH GIVES A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST.

THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS STILL EXCELLENT. DUMAZILE WILL TRACK WITHIN
VERY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION UNTIL MID-DAY
TOMORROW. THEN, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL
DRIVE A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT
OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS INITIATES THE WEAKENING PHASE OF THE METEOR AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER WATERS SOUTH OF 27S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
ITS POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041230

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 50.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 410 SO: 300 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO:
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO:

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 05/03/2018 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 05/03/2018 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 06/03/2018 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 06/03/2018 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 09/03/2018 12 UTC: 38.1 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, DES BANDES CONVECTIVES SE SONT
ENROULEES AUTOUR D'UN POINT CHAUD ENCORE MAL DEFINI EN IMAGERIE IR.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMI 1111Z) MONTRENT MALGRE TOUT
QUE LA CIRCULATION INTERNE MANQUE ELLE AUSSI D'ORGANISATION. EN
CONSEQUENCE DE CETTE AMELIORATION, LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST
JUGE ATTEINT OU SUR LE POINT DE L'ETRE.

DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, DUMAZILE A POURSUIVI SA TRAJECTOIRE
SUD-SUD-OUEST, EN CONSERVANT UN DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN CONSTRUCTION A L'EST.
CETTE NUIT, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LA DORSALE PAR L'OUEST, SA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-SUD-EST
DEMAIN. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS
LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST PLUTOT FAIBLE,
CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE A L'INTENSIFICATION DE
DUMAZILE AVEC PEU DE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
REMARQUABLE A LA FOIS AU NORD ET AU SUD DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A DIMANCHE
SOIR. LUNDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU COMMENCER A
S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE DE NORD PUIS D'OUEST
QUI S'INSTALLE EN COURS DE JOURNA E ET DE LA BAISSE DE LA DIVERGENCE
COTE EQUATORIAL. CE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL SE RENFORCE MARDI ET
MERCREDI ALORS QU'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE RAPPROCHE DE DUMAZILE PAR
L'OUEST. DANS UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE AVEC DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES AU SUD DE 27S, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES
CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 041217
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 50.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/03/05 AT 12 UTC:
22.1 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040657

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/6/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 51.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 370 SO: 300 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 190 NO: 150
48 KT NE: SE: 90 SO: 90 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/03/2018 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 05/03/2018 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 05/03/2018 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 06/03/2018 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 06/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 07/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2018 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 09/03/2018 06 UTC: 37.4 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, BIEN QUE LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT
EU TENDANCE A SE RECHAUFFER EN LIEN AVEC LE CYCLE DIURNE, L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE INTENSE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. LES DERNIERES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (WINDSAT 0228Z) MONTRENT QUE LA CIRCULATION
INTERNE SE CONTRACTE ET DEVIENT PLUS NETTE MALGRE LA STRUCTURE LARGE
INITIALE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE CE MATIN CONFIRME QUE LES VENTS MAXIMAUX
ATTEIGNENT PROBABLEMENT 50 A 55KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, DUMAZILE A POURSUIVI SA TRAJECTOIRE
SUD-SUD-OUEST, EN CONSERVANT UN DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN CONSTRUCTION A L'EST.
CETTE NUIT, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LA DORSALE PAR L'OUEST, SA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-SUD-EST
DEMAIN. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS
LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST PLUTOT FAIBLE,
CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE A L'INTENSIFICATION DE
DUMAZILE AVEC PEU DE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
REMARQUABLE A LA FOIS AU NORD ET AU SUD DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A DIMANCHE
SOIR. LUNDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU COMMENCER A
S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE DE NORD PUIS D'OUEST
QUI S'INSTALLE EN COURS DE JOURNA E ET DE LA BAISSE DE LA DIVERGENCE
COTE EQUATORIAL. CE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL SE RENFORCE MARDI ET
MERCREDI ALORS QU'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE RAPPROCHE DE DUMAZILE PAR
L'OUEST. DANS UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE AVEC DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES AU SUD DE 27S, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES
CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040657

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 51.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 150
48 KT NE: SE: 90 SW: 90 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/04 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/05 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/03/05 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/03/06 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/03/06 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/07 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/08 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/09 06 UTC: 37.4 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED CLOSE
TO THE CENTER OF DUMAZILE, ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY WARMER WITH
THE DIURNAL CYCLE. LAST MICROWAVE DATA (0228Z WINDSAT) SHOW THAT THE
INNER CORE IS CONTRACTING, BECOMING MORE DEFINED, DESPITE THE INITIAL
BROAD STRUCTURE. THIS MORNING ASCAT SWATH CONFIRMED THAT MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE LIKELY REACHING 50 TO 55KT IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

DURING THE LAST HOURS, DUMAZILE CONTINUED TO TRACK SOUTH
SOUTH-WESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TONIGHT, AS DUMAZILE CIRCUMVENTS THE RIDGE, ITS
TRACK SHOULD BEND SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TOMORROW. AT LONG
RANGE, A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH CIRCULATING IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A
QUICK EVACUATION. THE MODEL DISPERSION IS RATHER WEAK, WHICH GIVES A
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GLOBALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM,
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY, DURING DAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
START WEAKENING UNDER A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY THEN WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL CONSTRAINT AND THE DECAY OF THE EQUATORIAL SIDE DIVERGENCE.
THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITHIN A MORE AND MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER WATERS SOUTH OF 27S, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN ITS POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040616
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 51.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 400 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/04 AT 18 UTC:
19.6 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
21.2 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040040

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/6/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 51.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 370 SO: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/03/2018 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/03/2018 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 05/03/2018 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 06/03/2018 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 06/03/2018 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 09/03/2018 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5.

D'APRES LES IMAGES SATELLITES DURANT LES DERNIA RES HEURES, LA
CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT RENFORCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD,
CONTRIBUANT A REDUIRE LA DISSYMA TRIE ENCORE UN PEU PRA SENTE DANS LE
SYSTEME.
DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES DUMAZILE A PRIS UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
SUD-SUD-OUEST, EN CONSERVANT UN DEPLAMENT RAPIDE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN CONSTRUCTION A L'EST.
LUNDI, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LA DORSALE PAR L'OUEST, SA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-SUD-EST. EN
TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
AU SUD DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS LES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES A NETTEMENT DIMINUE AU
COURS DES DERNIERES 24H, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE A L'INTENSIFICATION DE
DUMAZILE AVEC PEU DE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
REMARQUABLE A LA FOIS AU NORD ET AU SUD DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A DIMANCHE
SOIR.
LUNDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU COMMENCER A
S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE DE NORD PUIS D'OUEST
QUI S'INSTALLE EN COURS DE JOURNA E ET COUPE LA DIVERGENCE COTE
EQUATORIAL. CE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL SE RENFORCE MARDI ET MERCREDI
ALORS QU'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE RAPPROCHE DE DUMAZILE PAR L'OUEST.
DANS UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES CARACTERES POST-TROPICAUX TOUT EN
S'AFFAIBLISSANT LENTEMENT.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040040

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 51.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 370 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/04 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/05 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/03/05 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/03/06 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/03/06 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/07 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/08 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/09 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5.

ACCORDING TO THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE REDUCING THE DISSYMMETRY QUITE
ALWAYS PRESENT IN THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE LAST HOURS, DUMAZILE HAS TRACKED MORE SOUTH SOUTH-WEST,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
MONDAY, AS DUMAZILE CIRCUMVENTS THE RIDGE, ITS TRACK SHOULD BEND
SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD. IN THE END OF THE PERIOD, A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH CIRCULATING IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK
EVACUATION. THE MODEL DISPERSION SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS., WHICH GIVES A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS THE TRACK
FORECAST.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GLOBALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM,
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
MONDAY, DURING DAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO START WEAKENING UNDER A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY THEN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT AND
SUPPRESS THE EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE. THIS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
STRENGTHENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE POST-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040036 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 51.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/04 AT 12 UTC:
18.5 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040012
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 51.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/04 AT 12 UTC:
18.5 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031808
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 52.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
17.4 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/04 AT 18 UTC:
19.3 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031228

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/6/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3 S / 52.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/03/2018 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 04/03/2018 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/03/2018 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 05/03/2018 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 06/03/2018 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 06/03/2018 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0-

CET APRES-MIDI, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE CONCENTREE SUR LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST MEME APPARU
TEMPORAIREMENT EN MARGE OUEST DE LA CONVECTION. ALORS QU'AUCUNE
DONNEE DISPONIBLE NE SUGGERE LA PRESENCE DE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
SIGNIFICATIF, LA PRESENCE D'UNE POCHE D'AIR PLUS SEC SEMBLE
L'EXPLICATION LA PLUS RAISONNABLE DE CETTE ASYMMETRIE. LA CONVECTION
A CEPENDANT BIEN REPRIS AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE AU COURS DES DEUX
DERNIERES HEURES, CE QUI A JUSTIFIE UNE LEGERE AUGMENTATION DE
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE.

COMME PREVU, DUMAZILE A ACCELERE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN CONSTRUCTION A
L'EST. LUNDI, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LA DORSALE PAR L'OUEST,
SA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST. EN TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD
DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES A NETTEMENT DIMINUE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES 24H, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE.

QUAND LA CONVECTION AURA REUSSI A HUMIDIFIER LA PARTIE OUEST DE LA
CIRCULATION, L'ENVIRONNEMENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLE DEVRAIT PERMETTRE
UNE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A DIMANCHE SOIR, AVEC PEU DE CISAILLEMENT
ET UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE REMARQUABLE A LA FOIS AU NORD ET AU SUD
DU SYSTEME.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD PUIS D'OUEST QUI S'INSTALLE ET SE RENFORCE
NETTEMENT EN COURS DE JOURNA E. CE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL AUGMENTE
ENCORE MARDI ET MERCREDI ALORS QU'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE RAPPROCHE
DE DUMAZILE PAR L'OUEST. DANS UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES CARACTERES
POST-TROPICAUX TOUT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT LENTEMENT.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031228

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 52.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/04 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/04 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/05 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/03/05 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/03/06 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/06 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/07 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/08 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION REMAINED LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVEN APPEARED
TEMPORARILY ON THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CONVECTION. AS NO AVAILABLE
DATA SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT, THE PRESENCE OF A
DRIER AIR POACH SEEMS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE EXPLANATION FOR THIS
ASYMMETRY. HOWEVER, STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS TRIGGERED NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS, WHICH JUSTIFIED A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY.

AS ANTICIPATED, DUMAZILE ACCELERATED SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MONDAY,
AS DUMAZILE CIRCUMVENTS THE RIDGE, ITS TRACK SHOULD BEND
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD. IN THE END OF THE PERIOD, A MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH CIRCULATING IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION. THE
MODEL DISPERSION SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS,
WHICH GIVES A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

WHEN CONVECTION WILL FINALLY MANAGE TO HUMIDIFY THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CIRCULATION, THE GLOBALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING, WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO START WEAKENING UNDER A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY THEN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. THIS
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAKE POST-TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031218
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 52.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 350 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/04 AT 00 UTC:
16.8 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/04 AT 12 UTC:
18.6 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030634

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/6/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.8 S / 53.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 03/03/2018 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 04/03/2018 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 04/03/2018 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 05/03/2018 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 05/03/2018 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 06/03/2018 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2018 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 08/03/2018 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

MALGRE DES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION CONSTANTES AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DUMAZILE A PEU EVOLUE AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES. BIEN QUE L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES SOIT EN
AMELIORATION SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (PASSE WINDSAT DE
0245Z NOTAMMENT), LA ZONE DE VENT FORT RESTE ASSEZ ETENDUE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST ET SEMBLE AVOIR DU MAL A SE CONCENTRER PRES DU
CENTRE. UNE BANDE D'AIR SECHE RESTE EGALEMENT PIEGEE PRES DU CENTRE
DU SYSTEME. DU COUP DE VENT EST ACTUELLEMENT OBSERVE SUR L'ILOT DE
TROMELIN.

A COURT ET MOYEN TERME, L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE TRES FAVORABLE A
L'INTENSIFICATION AVEC PEU DE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE REMARQUABLE A LA FOIS AU NORD ET AU SUD DU SYSTEME. LA
STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS RALENTIR
TEMPORAIREMENT CETTE INTENSIFICATION.

DUMAZILE SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN CONSTRUCTION A
L'EST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES. LUNDI, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME PASSE SUR LA FACE
SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE ET QU'UN AXE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAL SE MET EN PLACE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
DUMAZILE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER AU SUD-SUD-EST. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE,
LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT
PERMETTRE UNE EVACUATION ASSEZ RAPIDE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.

LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE DE NORD PUIS D'OUEST QUI S'INSTALLE EN COURS
DE JOURNA E ET COUPE LA DIVERGENCE COTE EQUATORIAL. CE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL SE RENFORCE MARDI ET MERCREDI ALORS QU'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
SE RAPPROCHE DE DUMAZILE PAR L'OUEST. DANS UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PRENDRE DES CARACTERES
POST-TROPICAUX TOUT EN S'AFFAILISSANT LENTEMENT.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030634

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 53.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/03 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/04 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/04 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/03/05 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/03/05 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/03/06 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/07 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/08 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DESPITE CONSTANT CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE CENTER, DUMAZILE'S CLOUD
PATTERN DID NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE IS IMPROVING ON THE LAST MW IMAGES (0245Z WINDSAT
SWATH), THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS REMAINS RATHER WIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND SEEMS TO STRUGGLE TO CONCENTRATE CLOSE TO THE CENTER.
A DRY AIR BAND IS ALSO STILL TRAPPED NEAR DUMAZILE'S CENTER. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON TROMELIN ISLAND.

AT SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE COULD
TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN THIS INTENSIFICATION.

DUMAZILE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS. AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE MID LEVEL EAST OF THE SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM'S TRACK SHOULD
BEND SOUTH-WESTWARD IN THE NEXT HOURS. MONDAY, AS DUMAZILE WILL TRACK
ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
GEOPOTENTIAL AXIS BUILDS SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD. IN THE END OF THE PERIOD, A MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH CIRCULATING IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK EVACUATION.

MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO START WEAKENING UNDER A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY THEN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SUPPRESS THE EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE. THIS
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STRENGTHENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITHIN A MORE AND MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE POST-TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030124

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/6/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 54.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 03/03/2018 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 04/03/2018 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 04/03/2018 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 05/03/2018 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 05/03/2018 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 06/03/2018 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

UNE PASS SCATSAT A 1605Z HIER SOIR A MONTRE DES VENTS DE 30-35 KT
DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST ESSENTIELLEMENT. L'ORGANISATION GENERALE DU
SYSTEME AYANT CONTINUE A LENTEMENT S'AMELIORER, IL EST ESTIME QUE DU
COUP DE VENT MINIMAL EST PROBABLEMENT ETABLI DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.
LE SYSTEME A AINSI ETE BAPTISE PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE
MADAGASCAR.

UNE PASS SSMI DE 2252Z, RECU JUSTE A TEMPS, A ETE TRES UTILE POUR
PRECISER LA POSITION DU CENTRE. LA CONFIGURATION DE BASSES COUCHES
EST EN AMELIORATION MAIS RESTE MOINS SPECTACULAIRE QUE LA
PRESENTATION AFFICHEE A L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE CLASSIQUE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE TRES FAVORABLE A L'INTENSIFICATION AVEC PEU DE
CISAILLEMENT, UN ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET UNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE REMARQUABLE A LA FOIS AU NORD ET AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. LA STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES APPARAIT COMME LE SEUL
FACTEUR LIMITANT A L'HEURE ACTUELLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE.
L'OCCURENCE DE CETTE INTENSIFICATION AUJOURD'HUI EST DONC
CONDITIONNEE PAR UNE AMELIORATION SENSIBLE DE LA CONFIGURATION DE
BASSES COUCHES.

DUMAZILE SE DEPLACE DEPUIS CETTE NUIT VERS LE SUD (190AO) ET DEVRAIT
GRADUELLEMENT ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AVEC LA
CONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST.
DIMANCHE LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER EN CONSERVANT QUE LE
CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE ET INCURVE GRADUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD
PUIS LE SUD-EST EN COURS DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SE DEPLACE EN EFFET GRADUELLEMENT AU NORD-EST
PUIS AU NORD DU SYSTEME.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST ESSENTIELLEMENT BASEE SUR UNE MOYENNE
IFS12Z-GFS18Z

LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST QUI S'INSTALLE EN COURS DE JOURNA E,
ET SE RENFORCE MARDI PUIS MERCREDI AU FUR ET A MESURE D'UNE
INTERACTION CROISSANTE AVEC UN MILIEU DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030124

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 54.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/03 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/04 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/04 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/03/05 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/03/05 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/03/06 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/07 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/08 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

A SCATSAT PASS AT 1605Z SHOW 30-35 KT WINDS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. AS THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE PRESENT WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THUS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED BY THE NWS OF
MADAGASCAR.

AN SSMI PASS AT 2252Z RECEIVED JUST IN TIME WAS USEFULL TO LOCATE THE
CENTER. IT SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE ALTHOUGH IMPROVING
REMAIN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE OVERALL PATTERN SEEN ON CLASSICAL
IMAGERY.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW
SHEAR, HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE APPEARS ARE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AT PRESENT TIME. THE
OCCURRENCE OF A SUCH INTENSIFICATION RELY ON A STRONG IMPROVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN.

DUMAZILE HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARDS LAST NIGHT (190AO) AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEND SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE MID
LEVEL EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON
INTENSIFYING, WITH ONLY ON POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL LEFT, TRACKING
GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT TO THE NORTH-EAST AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON A MEAN TRACK BASED ON IFS12Z
AND GFS18Z.

MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO START WEAKENING UNDER A
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY
MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 030032
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUMAZILE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 54.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/03 AT 12 UTC:
15.7 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/04 AT 00 UTC:
17.1 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM WAS NAMED AT 00Z BY THE NWS OF MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 021500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 180302135833
2018030212 11S ELEVEN 001 01 065 02 SATL 050
T000 126S 0542E 035
T012 135S 0539E 045 R034 145 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 148S 0532E 060 R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
185 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 163S 0524E 075 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 195 SE QD
165 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 182S 0519E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 120 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 220 SE QD
175 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 217S 0524E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R050
125 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 285 SE QD
210 SW QD 155 NW QD
T096 248S 0544E 085 R064 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R050
135 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 340 SE QD
225 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 277S 0573E 065 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 115 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 355 SE QD
225 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 180302135833
2018030212 11S ELEVEN 001 01 065 02 SATL 050
T000 126S 0542E 035
T012 135S 0539E 045 R034 145 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 148S 0532E 060 R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 163S 0524E 075 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 182S 0519E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 220 SE QD 175 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 217S 0524E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 285 SE QD 210 SW QD 155 NW QD
T096 248S 0544E 085 R064 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R050 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 340 SE QD 225 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 277S 0573E 065 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 115 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 355 SE QD 225 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.5S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 6 FEET.
//
1117030600 138S 779E 25
1117030606 142S 771E 25
1117030612 146S 765E 25
1117030618 150S 758E 30
1117030700 156S 748E 30
1117030706 159S 738E 30
1117030712 161S 728E 30
1117030718 160S 721E 30
1117030800 155S 715E 30
1117030806 151S 711E 30
1117030812 151S 706E 30
1117030818 152S 701E 35
1117030900 151S 692E 40
1117030906 146S 686E 40
1117030912 142S 688E 35
1117030914 142S 692E 35
1117030918 145S 693E 35
1117031000 151S 691E 30
1117031006 155S 691E 35
1117031012 160S 690E 30
1117031018 165S 689E 30


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 021500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020921ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.5S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.8S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020921ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.5S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.8S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.7S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.8S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.7S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
355 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM NORTH
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION WHICH HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY A 021216Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE HIGH SIDE OF
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5
(30 TO 35 KNOTS), DUE TO RAPID CONSOLIDATION OBSERVED IN THE PAST 6
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OVER THE TOP OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER PROVIDING FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, WITH
THE GREATEST DIVERGENCE OVER THE EQUATORWARD SEMI-CIRCLE WHERE THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. SSTS ARE VERY FAVORABLE (ABOUT 29
CELSIUS) AS WELL. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BY 55
KNOTS IN 48 HOURS DUE TO THESE SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS. AS TC 11S
DEVELOPS, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z,
030900Z AND 031500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
020930)//