Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-18
in Australia

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 250300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180325005804
2018032500 16P NORA 012 02 170 13 SATL 045
T000 168S 1421E 050 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 176S 1422E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.6S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180325005804
2018032500 16P NORA 012 02 170 13 SATL 045
T000 168S 1421E 050 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 176S 1422E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.6S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 142.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM WEST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032412 142S1415E 85
1618032412 142S1415E 85
1618032412 142S1415E 85
1618032418 155S1418E 65
1618032418 155S1418E 65
1618032418 155S1418E 65
1618032500 168S1421E 50
1618032500 168S1421E 50


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 250300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.6S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 142.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM WEST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.6S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 142.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM WEST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW OVER LAND, CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES AND LOCAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WHICH IS
SCALED LOWER FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BASED ON LAND INTERACTION, AND
SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA, AUSTRALIA REPORTING
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A MINIMUM MSLP OF 984 MB. TC 16P HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS WHILE OVER LAND REMAINING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS ANOTHER
COMPETING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BUILD. THE REMNANTS OF TC
16P IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AS A POST TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS EVENTUALLY TRACKING WESTWARD AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE BUILDS.
THERE EXISTS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE REMNANTS OF 16P TO AGAIN TRACK
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BEYOND TAU 48,
BUT OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 242100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180324201316
2018032418 16P NORA 011 02 165 13 SATL 040
T000 155S 1418E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD
105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 166S 1420E 050 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
025 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 171S 1420E 040 R034 025 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 173S 1419E 035
T048 174S 1417E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180324201316
2018032418 16P NORA 011 02 165 13 SATL 040
T000 155S 1418E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 166S 1420E 050 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 025 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 171S 1420E 040 R034 025 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 173S 1419E 035
T048 174S 1417E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.6S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.1S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.3S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.4S 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 141.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032412 142S1415E 85
1618032412 142S1415E 85
1618032412 142S1415E 85
1618032418 155S1418E 65
1618032418 155S1418E 65
1618032418 155S1418E 65


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 242100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.6S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.6S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.1S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.3S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.4S 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 141.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
INTERACTION WITH THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE EVIDENT
IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS ABOVE AREA OBSERVATIONS THAT
ARE DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND TERRAIN INHIBITED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING OVER LAND. TC NORA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHERLY AS A
STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL BUILD AND COMPETE
FOR STEERING, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. LAND
INTERACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
TC 16P WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, SOUTH OF KOWANYAMA. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AFTER
TAU 24. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 241500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180324132734
2018032412 16P NORA 010 01 145 11 SATL RADR 020
T000 142S 1415E 085 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 155S 1418E 075 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 162S 1419E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 166S 1419E 040 R034 085 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 169S 1418E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180324132734
2018032412 16P NORA 010 01 145 11 SATL RADR 020
T000 142S 1415E 085 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 155S 1418E 075 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 162S 1419E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 166S 1419E 040 R034 085 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 169S 1418E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.5S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.9S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 141.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032412 142S1415E 85
1618032412 142S1415E 85
1618032412 142S1415E 85


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 241500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.5S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.5S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.9S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 141.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE EASTERN FLANK
HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTED WITH CAPE YORK PENINSULA;
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAINED RELATIVELY DEEP AND
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF 16P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE 15-KNOT NORTHERLY VWS BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN
THE GULF ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. TC NORA IS IMMINENTLY
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
COASTAL AREAS OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA AS THE NER BUILDS. AFTER TAU
24, THE STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL BUILD AND
COMPETE FOR STEERING, CAUSING TC 16P TO BECOME QS. THE INITIAL LAND
INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 16P, THEN AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND, AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS FURTHER INLAND, WILL
CAUSE A MORE RAPID DECAY. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND SOUTH OF KOWANYAMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
UNISON WITH THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE WITH AFUM AS THE SOLE EASTWARD
OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE AFUM SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF A
QS MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 240900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180324072017
2018032406 16P NORA 009 01 135 10 SATL 020
T000 133S 1408E 090 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
115 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 160 SE QD
120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 149S 1415E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 135 SE QD
120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 160S 1415E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD
075 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 164S 1415E 055 R050 065 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 168S 1414E 045 R034 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 172S 1412E 035 R034 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 177S 1348E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180324072017
2018032406 16P NORA 009 01 135 10 SATL 020
T000 133S 1408E 090 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 149S 1415E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 160S 1415E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 164S 1415E 055 R050 065 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 168S 1414E 045 R034 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 172S 1412E 035 R034 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 177S 1348E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.9S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.0S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.4S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.8S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.2S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.7S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 141.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90
1618032406 133S1408E 90


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 240900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.9S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.9S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.0S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.4S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.8S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.2S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.7S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 141.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM NORTHWEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP AND
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 12-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 240521Z
GPM 37GHZ PASS WHICH IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE IN THE MSI WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY TILTED SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF 16P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-KNOT
NORTHERLY VWS BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE GULF ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. TC NORA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD
AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA AS THE NER
BUILDS. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
WILL BUILD AND COMPETE FOR STEERING, CAUSING TC 16P TO BECOME QS UP
TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE NER WILL RECEDE AND THE STR WILL DOMINATE
AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
TERRITORY. THE INITIAL LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 16P,
THEN AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CAUSE A MORE RAPID
DECAY. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND BY TAU
96 WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE
IN UNISON WITH THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, HOWEVER, EGRR AND AFUM OFFER
A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE CORAL SEA AFTER
TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE EGRR/AFUM SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
A QS MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z, AND 251500.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 240300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180324015547
2018032400 16P NORA 008 01 135 10 SATL 060
T000 126S 1401E 090 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD
095 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 139S 1412E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 150S 1414E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD
090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 158S 1414E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD
060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 164S 1412E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 170S 1408E 045 R034 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 178S 1376E 035
T120 182S 1324E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180324015547
2018032400 16P NORA 008 01 135 10 SATL 060
T000 126S 1401E 090 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 139S 1412E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 150S 1414E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 158S 1414E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 164S 1412E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 170S 1408E 045 R034 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 178S 1376E 035
T120 182S 1324E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.9S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.0S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.8S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.2S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 140.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90
1618032400 126S1401E 90


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 240300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.9S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.9S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.0S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.8S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.2S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TC NORA WEAKENED
THROUGH THE 0000Z HOUR, WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK, RAGGED EYE FEATURE
EVIDENT IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE MSI, AND RADAR FIX DATA FROM THE
WEIPA RADAR SITE. A 232207Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED
THAT DEEP CONVECTION WAS LIMITED AT THAT TIME TO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT, WITH THE EYEWALL BEING OPEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS FOR THIS WARNING,
BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE OF T4.8 (84 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DUE TO AN INCREASING TREND EVIDENT AT THE TIME OF THE FIX. TC
16P CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEW GUINEA, THOUGH THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FLATTER THAN
ORIGINAL FORECAST, WITH A STRONGER EASTWARD COMPONENT THROUGH THE
00Z HOUR. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INTENSITY HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY
BUT IS ON AN INCREASING TREND. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE NER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, TC NORA IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL COL AREA BETWEEN THE NER, A
DEVELOPING STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE EQUATORWARD END OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROF TO THE SOUTH, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THROUGH TAU 72. IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 16P WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE STR
BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WHILE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED, BY THE 00Z HOUR,
INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING WERE ALREADY BECOMING EVIDENT, AND SO A
SHORT PERIOD OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU
12, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU
12 AND THROUGH TAU 36 SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 36, AS LAND INTERACTION AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT COMBINE, TC 16P WILL EXPERIENCE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH GULF
OF CARPENTARIA BEFORE TAU 96 AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN, WITH THREE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. THE AFUM AND EGRR MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE CORAL SEA,
WHILE THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST,
WHICH LIES WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 232100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180323201907
2018032318 16P NORA 007 01 130 08 SATL 060
T000 119S 1394E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 132S 1404E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD
120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 148S 1409E 105 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 155S 1410E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD
095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 162S 1408E 085 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 060 SE QD
080 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 169S 1404E 065 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 177S 1378E 045
T120 187S 1326E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180323201907
2018032318 16P NORA 007 01 130 08 SATL 060
T000 119S 1394E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 132S 1404E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 148S 1409E 105 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 155S 1410E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 162S 1408E 085 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 169S 1404E 065 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 177S 1378E 045
T120 187S 1326E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.2S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.8S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.2S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.9S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.7S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7S 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 139.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032306 106S1380E 65
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032312 114S1388E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95
1618032318 119S1394E 95


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 232100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.2S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.2S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.8S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.2S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.9S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.7S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7S 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 139.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
NORA HAS CEASED ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE, AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY, WITH THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN AN EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY, AS
WELL AS A 231715 SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTING A WEAK
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE DISPLACED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM WHERE
THE IR WOULD SUGGEST THE LLCC WOULD BE. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED
BY ANALYSIS OF RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE GOVE, AUSTRALIA RADAR SITE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102
KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM
CIMSS OF T5.0. TC 16P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW GUINEA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, INTENSITY
HAS PLATEAUED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS WELL AS RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC
16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AROUND TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 72, TC 16P WILL
ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT PERIOD OF
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 24, PEAKING AT 105
KNOTS, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND MODERATE SUPPORTING UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
ACCELERATE THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, LAND
INTERACTION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 16P WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 24, BUT
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE
A PERIOD OF SLOW MOVEMENT AROUND TAU 72 FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION
TOWARDS THE WEST, THE UNCERTAINTY BEING IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
MOTION. HOWEVER, THE AFUM AND EGRR MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, MOVING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE CORAL SEA BY TAU 72. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 231500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.8S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.4S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7S 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.1S 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.7S 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 139.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM
GOVE, AUSTRALIA, RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES AND A PARTIAL 231208Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 16P HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL (NEQ) RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, WITH DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT AROUND A
PARTIALLY OPEN EYEWALL, AS CAPTURED BY MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR DATA. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NEQ STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AROUND
TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE STORM MOTION. FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS BY TAU 96, WHEN THE STR TO
THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TC 16P WESTWARD. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TC 16P
PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITH
SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. AFTER TAU 36, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. TC 16P WILL
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, A FEW MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 120. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
EDITED THE REMARKS SECTION TO CHANGE TC 16S TO TC 16P.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 231500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180323135353
2018032312 16P NORA 006 01 135 10 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 113S 1388E 095 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD
110 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 128S 1399E 125 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD
130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 144S 1405E 130 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 115 SE QD
120 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 157S 1406E 115 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD
105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 165S 1405E 095 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD
090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 171S 1401E 085 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD
085 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 177S 1383E 045
T120 185S 1330E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180323135353
2018032312 16P NORA 006 01 135 10 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 113S 1388E 095 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 128S 1399E 125 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 144S 1405E 130 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 157S 1406E 115 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 165S 1405E 095 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 171S 1401E 085 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 177S 1383E 045
T120 185S 1330E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.8S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.4S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7S 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.1S 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.7S 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 139.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032306 106S1381E 65
1618032306 106S1381E 65
1618032306 106S1381E 65
1618032312 113S1388E 95
1618032312 113S1388E 95
1618032312 113S1388E 95


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 231500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.8S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.8S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.4S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7S 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.1S 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.7S 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 139.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM
GOVE, AUSTRALIA, RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES AND A PARTIAL 231208Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 16S HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL (NEQ) RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, WITH DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT AROUND A
PARTIALLY OPEN EYEWALL, AS CAPTURED BY MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR DATA. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NEQ STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AROUND
TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE STORM MOTION. FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS BY TAU 96, WHEN THE STR TO
THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TC 16S WESTWARD. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TC 16S
PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITH
SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. AFTER TAU 36, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. TC 16S WILL
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, A FEW MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 120. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 230900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180323082257
2018032306 16P NORA 005 01 125 13 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 106S 1381E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 105 SE QD
090 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 121S 1396E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD
125 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 136S 1403E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD
120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 150S 1407E 120 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 110 SE QD
105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 161S 1407E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD
090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 170S 1403E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 175S 1395E 050 R050 010 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 183S 1347E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180323082257
2018032306 16P NORA 005 01 125 13 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 106S 1381E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 121S 1396E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 136S 1403E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 150S 1407E 120 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 161S 1407E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 170S 1403E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 175S 1395E 050 R050 010 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 183S 1347E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.1S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.6S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.1S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.0S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.5S 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.3S 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032300 99S1370E 55
1618032306 106S1381E 65
1618032306 106S1381E 65
1618032306 106S1381E 65


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 230900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.1S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.1S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.6S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.1S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.0S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.5S 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.3S 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND A PARTIAL 230607Z SSMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIX DATA FROM
CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 16S HAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM
STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A DEVELOPING EYEWALL EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE SOUTH EXERTS AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. SLOW
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WITH ACCELERATION WESTWARD LIKELY THEREAFTER. RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS TC 16S PASSES OVER
VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
SUPPORTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. TC 16S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 AS
IT MOVES INLAND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE POLEWARD TRACK SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72, BUT DIVERGE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE MAJORITY SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH LANDFALL AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 230300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180323023117
2018032300 16P NORA 004 01 090 04 SATL 025
T000 099S 1369E 055 R050 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 109S 1382E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 145 SE QD
100 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 124S 1393E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD
100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 140S 1398E 120 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD
100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 154S 1400E 110 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD
080 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 166S 1398E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 065 SE QD
065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 176S 1391E 050 R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T120 184S 1347E 035
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180323023117
2018032300 16P NORA 004 01 090 04 SATL 025
T000 099S 1369E 055 R050 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 109S 1382E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 145 SE QD 100 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 124S 1393E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 140S 1398E 120 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 154S 1400E 110 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 166S 1398E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 176S 1391E 050 R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T120 184S 1347E 035
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.4S 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.4S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.4S 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 137.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45
1618032300 99S1369E 55
1618032300 99S1369E 55


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 230300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.4S 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.4S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.4S 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 137.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP BANDING CONVECTION RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STRUGGLING TO FORM AN EYE. A 222116Z 37 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND ADRM. NEARBY SHIP
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE WESSEL INDICATE A SHARP INCREASE
IN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
MSLP TO 997 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE DUE TO A POINT SOURCE
ANALYZED JUST ABOVE THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO
EXTREMELY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS WITH NOTABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN
THE ARAFURA SEA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 16P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST EAST OF TC 16S WILL SHIFT THE TRACK
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARM WATERS WILL
FAVOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TC 16P IN THE NEAR TERM, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, TC 16P WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS LAND AND SLOWS DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF TC 16P AND SHIFT
THE TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TC 16S WILL
MAKE LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER THE CONTINENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
IMPROVEMENT, BUT A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE LEVEL
OF INFLUENCE THE EASTWARD RIDGE WILL HAVE IN THE SHORT TERM IS
UNKNOWN. THE MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR A TRACK MORE EASTWARD WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A WESTWARD TRACK KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER OPEN
WATER AND UNHINDERED BY LAND A BIT LONGER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS HEDGED TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A MORE
PRONOUNCED EASTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z,
231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 222100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.7S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.7S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.0S 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.5S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.9S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.8S 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 136.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING CONVECTION
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
221901Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE
CORRESPONDING 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE BEGINNING TO TAKE
HOLD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS) BASED ON THE RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A 221557Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STARK IMPROVEMENT IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE DUE TO A
POINT SOURCE ANALYZED JUST ABOVE THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
EXTREMELY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS WITH NOTABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN
THE ARAFURA SEA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 16P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK
RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST EAST OF TC 16S WHICH WILL SHIFT THE TRACK
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARM WATERS WILL
FAVOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TC 16P IN THE NEAR TERM, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, TC 16P WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS LAND AND SLOWS DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF TC 16P AND SHIFT
THE TRACK WEST-SOUTHWARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TC 16S WILL MAKE
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER THE CONTINENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
IMPROVEMENT, BUT A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE LEVEL
OF INFLUENCE THE EASTWARD RIDGE WILL HAVE IN THE SHORT TERM IS
UNKNOWN. THE MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR A TRACK MORE EASTWARD WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A WESTWARD TRACK KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER OPEN
WATER LONGER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARD THE GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTERN RIDGE,
HOWEVER, DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 222100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180322204034
2018032218 16P SIXTEEN 003 01 065 02 SATL 035
T000 099S 1365E 045 R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 107S 1378E 075 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
095 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 120S 1390E 100 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 135S 1399E 120 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 145 SE QD
115 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 150S 1402E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD
085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 163S 1400E 070 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 105 SE QD
060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 169S 1397E 050 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 135 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 178S 1359E 035 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180322204034
2018032218 16P SIXTEEN 003 01 065 02 SATL 035
T000 099S 1365E 045 R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 107S 1378E 075 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 095 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 120S 1390E 100 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 135S 1399E 120 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 145 SE QD 115 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 150S 1402E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 163S 1400E 070 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 169S 1397E 050 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 178S 1359E 035 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.7S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.0S 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.5S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.9S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.8S 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 136.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 100S1363E 35
1618032218 99S1365E 45


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 221500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180322133849
2018032212 16P SIXTEEN 002 01 090 04 SATL 055
T000 101S 1363E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 105S 1374E 040 R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 185 NW QD
T024 115S 1386E 050 R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 129S 1397E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 160 SE QD
135 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 143S 1402E 085 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 162S 1402E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 166S 1394E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 135 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 167S 1380E 035 R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD 030 SW QD 095 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.1S 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180322133849
2018032212 16P SIXTEEN 002 01 090 04 SATL 055
T000 101S 1363E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 105S 1374E 040 R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 185 NW QD
T024 115S 1386E 050 R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 129S 1397E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 160 SE QD 135 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 143S 1402E 085 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 162S 1402E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 166S 1394E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 167S 1380E 035 R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD 030 SW QD 095 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.1S 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.5S 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.5S 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.9S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.3S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.6S 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7S 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 136.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1354E 30
1618032206 101S1359E 35
1618032212 101S1363E 35


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 221500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.1S 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.5S 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.5S 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.1S 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.5S 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.5S 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.9S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.3S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.6S 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7S 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 136.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ADRM,
COUPLED WITH A 220054Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF 30-35
KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). TC 16P IS
BEING STEERED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE STORM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING TO
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN
MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS DECREASES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD, WITH
SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPE OF YORK AND OTHER
MODELS TURNING IT BACK TO THE WEST AFTER COMING ASHORE IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THIS SPREAD IS LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z,
230900Z AND 231500Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 220900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180322084011
2018032206 16P SIXTEEN 001 01 110 03 SATL 060
T000 102S 1356E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 104S 1365E 040 R034 115 NE QD 155 SE QD 070 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 111S 1377E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 124S 1390E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 135 SE QD
120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 140S 1400E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD
105 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 165S 1401E 075 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 169S 1395E 050 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 170S 1381E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 135.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 180322084011
2018032206 16P SIXTEEN 001 01 110 03 SATL 060
T000 102S 1356E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 104S 1365E 040 R034 115 NE QD 155 SE QD 070 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 111S 1377E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 124S 1390E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 140S 1400E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 105 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 165S 1401E 075 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 169S 1395E 050 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 170S 1381E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 135.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 135.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.4S 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.1S 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.4S 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.5S 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.9S 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.0S 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 135.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
1618032006 75S1367E 15
1618032012 78S1361E 15
1618032018 82S1356E 15
1618032100 86S1352E 15
1618032106 90S1350E 15
1618032112 95S1349E 15
1618032118 98S1350E 25
1618032200 101S1353E 30
1618032206 102S1356E 35


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 220900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI/211821ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 135.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 135.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.4S 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.1S 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI/211821ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 135.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 135.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.4S 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.1S 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.4S 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.5S 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.9S 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.0S 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 135.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CAUSING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 220054Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
ADRM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-
30C). TC 16P IS BEING STEERED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY
AT FIRST, THEN MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS DECREASES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS AT TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A RANGE
OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO THE
FORECAST TRACK BUT SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE A SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 211830).//