Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOSIE-18
in Fiji

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 030900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180403073906
2018040306 18P JOSIE 012 02 135 16 SATL 020
T000 228S 1796W 035 R034 155 NE QD 250 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 244S 1777W 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180403073906
2018040306 18P JOSIE 012 02 135 16 SATL 020
T000 228S 1796W 035 R034 155 NE QD 250 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 244S 1777W 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 195S1770E 45
1818040106 198S1771E 40
1818040112 199S1774E 40
1818040118 201S1777E 35
1818040200 206S1781E 35
1818040206 211S1784E 35
1818040212 214S1785E 40
1818040218 215S1788E 40
1818040300 217S1792E 40
1818040306 228S1796W 35


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 030900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED LLC
WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EASTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC IN THE MSI LOOP AND
MATCHES THE LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 030552Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED LLC
WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EASTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC IN THE MSI LOOP AND
MATCHES THE LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 030552Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25-30 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SUSTAINED LLC STRUCTURE. TC 18P HAS ACCELERATED INTO AN AREA OF
HIGH (GREATER THAN 30-KNOT) VWS. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE IS RAPIDLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL AS EVIDENCED BY ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND
ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
TRACK AND DEEPER INTO HIGHER VWS AREA. IN VIEW OF THIS, TC JOSIE IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 12 OR SOONER.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 030300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180403013107
2018040300 18P JOSIE 011 02 120 04 SATL 030
T000 217S 1792E 040 R034 170 NE QD 215 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 227S 1797W 040 R034 175 NE QD 260 SE QD 085 SW QD 025 NW QD
T024 236S 1785W 040 R034 110 NE QD 335 SE QD 100 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 245S 1770W 035 R034 140 NE QD 435 SE QD 155 SW QD 025 NW QD
T048 260S 1749W 035 R034 150 NE QD 415 SE QD 195 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 179.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 179.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.7S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180403013107
2018040300 18P JOSIE 011 02 120 04 SATL 030
T000 217S 1792E 040 R034 170 NE QD 215 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 227S 1797W 040 R034 175 NE QD 260 SE QD 085 SW QD 025 NW QD
T024 236S 1785W 040 R034 110 NE QD 335 SE QD 100 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 245S 1770W 035 R034 140 NE QD 435 SE QD 155 SW QD 025 NW QD
T048 260S 1749W 035 R034 150 NE QD 415 SE QD 195 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 179.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 179.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.7S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.6S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.5S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
435 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.0S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 179.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 195S1770E 45
1818040106 198S1771E 40
1818040112 199S1774E 40
1818040118 201S1777E 35
1818040200 206S1781E 35
1818040206 211S1784E 35
1818040212 214S1785E 40
1818040218 215S1788E 40
1818040300 217S1792E 40


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 030300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 179.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 179.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.7S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.6S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 179.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 179.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.7S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.6S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.5S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
435 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.0S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 179.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MUTLI-SPECTRAL
(MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 80 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL FEATURE IN
THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS
IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 022129Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED 40 KNOT WIND BARBS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRAT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T2.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 17P IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO DISPLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE SHEAR. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE 18P TO BEGIN TO TRANSITION
INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 12 AND BECOME COMPLETELY
SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 022100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180402195825
2018040218 18P JOSIE 010 02 110 03 SATL 030
T000 215S 1788E 040 R034 140 NE QD 195 SE QD 095 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 225S 1797E 040 R034 145 NE QD 235 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 234S 1791W 045 R034 150 NE QD 230 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 243S 1781W 040 R034 165 NE QD 275 SE QD 110 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 258S 1765W 040 R034 170 NE QD 370 SE QD 175 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 178.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 178.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180402195825
2018040218 18P JOSIE 010 02 110 03 SATL 030
T000 215S 1788E 040 R034 140 NE QD 195 SE QD 095 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 225S 1797E 040 R034 145 NE QD 235 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 234S 1791W 045 R034 150 NE QD 230 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 243S 1781W 040 R034 165 NE QD 275 SE QD 110 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 258S 1765W 040 R034 170 NE QD 370 SE QD 175 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 178.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 178.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.4S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.3S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.8S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 179.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 195S1770E 45
1818040106 198S1771E 40
1818040112 199S1774E 40
1818040118 201S1777E 35
1818040200 206S1781E 35
1818040206 211S1784E 35
1818040212 214S1785E 40
1818040218 215S1788E 40


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 022100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 178.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 178.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.4S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 178.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 178.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.4S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.3S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.8S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 179.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 100 NM TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40
KNOTS) WHICH CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 18P ALSO HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC
18P WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE
18P TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM STARTING BY TAU 12 AND
BECOME COMPLETELY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P
(IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 021500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180402143458
2018040212 18P JOSIE 009 02 165 03 SATL 045
T000 214S 1785E 040 R034 095 NE QD 135 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 224S 1792E 040 R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 237S 1798W 045 R034 105 NE QD 235 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 248S 1786W 040 R034 115 NE QD 265 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 258S 1772W 040 R034 185 NE QD 365 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 287S 1742W 035 R034 160 NE QD 255 SE QD 200 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180402143458
2018040212 18P JOSIE 009 02 165 03 SATL 045
T000 214S 1785E 040 R034 095 NE QD 135 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 224S 1792E 040 R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 237S 1798W 045 R034 105 NE QD 235 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 248S 1786W 040 R034 115 NE QD 265 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 258S 1772W 040 R034 185 NE QD 365 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 287S 1742W 035 R034 160 NE QD 255 SE QD 200 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.7S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.8S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.8S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.7S 174.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 178.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 195S1770E 45
1818040106 198S1771E 40
1818040112 199S1774E 40
1818040118 197S1778E 35
1818040200 208S1784E 35
1818040206 211S1784E 35
1818040212 214S1785E 40


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 021500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.7S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.7S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.8S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.8S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.7S 174.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 178.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 18P HAS BEEN
SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 021018Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND A SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WHICH
CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 18P ALSO
HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 18P WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 18P
TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS BEFORE PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. TC 18P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS TC 18P TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD
IT WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND BECOME COMPLETELY
SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 020900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180402075602
2018040206 18P JOSIE 008 02 180 03 SATL 045
T000 211S 1784E 035 R034 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 222S 1793E 035 R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 234S 1799W 040 R034 115 NE QD 235 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 246S 1790W 040 R034 135 NE QD 285 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 258S 1778W 040 R034 155 NE QD 375 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 284S 1751W 040 R034 125 NE QD 285 SE QD 215 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.2S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180402075602
2018040206 18P JOSIE 008 02 180 03 SATL 045
T000 211S 1784E 035 R034 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 222S 1793E 035 R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 234S 1799W 040 R034 115 NE QD 235 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 246S 1790W 040 R034 135 NE QD 285 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 258S 1778W 040 R034 155 NE QD 375 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 284S 1751W 040 R034 125 NE QD 285 SE QD 215 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.2S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.6S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.8S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.4S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 178.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 195S1770E 45
1818040106 198S1771E 40
1818040112 199S1774E 40
1818040118 197S1778E 35
1818040200 208S1784E 35
1818040206 211S1784E 35


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 020900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.2S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.2S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.6S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.8S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.4S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 178.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 18P HAS BEEN SHEARED TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 020600Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40
KNOTS) WHICH CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 18P ALSO HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 18P WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 18P
TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS TC 18P
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48
AND BECOME COMPLETELY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 020300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180402013100
2018040200 18P JOSIE 007 01 155 12 SATL 050
T000 208S 1784E 035 R034 045 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 219S 1794E 035 R034 130 NE QD 195 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 232S 1798W 035 R034 160 NE QD 225 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 244S 1790W 040 R034 190 NE QD 280 SE QD 175 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 255S 1780W 040 R034 190 NE QD 365 SE QD 215 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 281S 1753W 040 R034 190 NE QD 300 SE QD 210 SW QD 185 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180402013100
2018040200 18P JOSIE 007 01 155 12 SATL 050
T000 208S 1784E 035 R034 045 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 219S 1794E 035 R034 130 NE QD 195 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 232S 1798W 035 R034 160 NE QD 225 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 244S 1790W 040 R034 190 NE QD 280 SE QD 175 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 255S 1780W 040 R034 190 NE QD 365 SE QD 215 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 281S 1753W 040 R034 190 NE QD 300 SE QD 210 SW QD 185 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.2S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.4S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.5S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.1S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 178.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 195S1770E 45
1818040106 198S1771E 40
1818040112 199S1774E 40
1818040118 197S1778E 35
1818040200 208S1784E 35


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 020300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.2S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.2S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.4S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.5S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.1S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 178.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST,
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011855Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES TO THE WEST OF FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 012149Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING
PATCHES OF 35 KT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH, WITH
THE AREA OF HIGHER WINDS TO THE SOUTH 75NM REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ABOVE THE 010000Z PGTW FIX OF CURRENT
INTENSITY T2.0 (30 KTS), BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT KNES AND NFFN
FIXES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, PROVIDING
HIGH (25-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MODERATE OUTFLOW TO
THE EAST IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH. TC 18P HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
PREDICTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL 35-KT INTENSITY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPRESSES DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VWS
INCREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE JET TO THE
SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER TC 18P AND THE
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPANDED,
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WARM CORE
BUT BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC, THUS SUGGESTING A MORE SUBTROPICAL VICE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TOWARD THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DURING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO LOW SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 012100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180401193615
2018040118 18P JOSIE 006 01 060 04 SATL 040
T000 197S 1778E 035 R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 202S 1788E 035 R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 219S 1795E 035 R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 095 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 231S 1798W 035 R034 175 NE QD 235 SE QD 135 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 242S 1791W 035 R034 160 NE QD 320 SE QD 175 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 263S 1770W 040 R034 135 NE QD 365 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.2S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180401193615
2018040118 18P JOSIE 006 01 060 04 SATL 040
T000 197S 1778E 035 R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 202S 1788E 035 R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 219S 1795E 035 R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 095 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 231S 1798W 035 R034 175 NE QD 235 SE QD 135 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 242S 1791W 035 R034 160 NE QD 320 SE QD 175 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 263S 1770W 040 R034 135 NE QD 365 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.2S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.9S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.1S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.2S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.3S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 178.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 195S1770E 45
1818040106 198S1771E 40
1818040112 199S1774E 40
1818040118 197S1778E 35


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 012100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.2S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.9S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.2S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.9S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.1S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.2S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.3S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 178.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST, OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 011732Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FEATURES TO THE WEST OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PHFO AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS), AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF
T2.0 (30 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT IS IMPINGING ON THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND PROVIDING HIGH
(25-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM, CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
ROBUST BUT DIMINISHING OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS PARTIALLY COMPENSATING
AND STILL SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS,
DECREASING TO THE SOUTH. AN AMSU CROSS-SECTION REVEALS A BURGEONING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC COLD ANOMALY SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-
LEVEL WARM ANOMALIES, WHICH IS SOMEWHAT CHARACTERISTIC OF A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 18P RECENTLY MADE A SLIGHT TRACK DEVIATION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE THAT IS RECEDING TO THE EAST, BUT A TURN BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST PREDICTS THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL 35-KT INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPRESSES DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VWS INCREASES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE TRANSITION SCENARIO TO SUBTROPICAL STORM AFTER
TAU 48 NOW APPEARS TO BE FAVORED BY NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SYSTEM AND THERMAL ADVECTION
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED, RESULTING IN AN EXPANDED WIND FIELD. THE
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE PREDICTS THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WARM CORE BUT BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC, WHICH SUGGESTS A
MORE SUBTROPICAL VICE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST DURING
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO LOW SPREAD
IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 011500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180401141916
2018040112 18P JOSIE 005 01 135 03 SATL 040
T000 200S 1773E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 208S 1780E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 220S 1788E 040 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 235S 1797E 035 R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 247S 1796W 035 R034 090 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 267S 1777W 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 177.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 177.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180401141916
2018040112 18P JOSIE 005 01 135 03 SATL 040
T000 200S 1773E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 208S 1780E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 220S 1788E 040 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 235S 1797E 035 R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 247S 1796W 035 R034 090 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 267S 1777W 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 177.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 177.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.7S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.7S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 011321Z GPM 36 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS CURVED BANDING FEATURES WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSTRAINED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DEFINED
CENTER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GPM IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KNOTS, WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 30-45
KNOTS, WITH AUTOMATED ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDING 40 KTS. UNFORTUNATELY
BOTH ASCAT AND OSCAT PASSES MISSED THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD IS IMPINGING ON THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND PROVIDING HIGH
(30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, ROBUST OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS
PARTIALLY COMPENSATING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
JOSIE IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. FORECAST INTENSITIES SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS PARTIALLY
OFFSETS THE EFFECTS OF THE VWS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 18P WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING
TO A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER TAU 48 AS THERMAL ADVECTION BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR INCREASING VWS TO FINALLY RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER WATER, HOWEVER, SOME MODELS INDICATE RE-STRENGTHENING
AFTER THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF DISSIPATION, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO MAY PREVAIL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 195S1770E 45
1818040106 198S1771E 40
1818040112 200S1773E 40


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 011500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 177.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 177.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 177.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 177.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.7S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.7S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011321Z GPM 36
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING FEATURES WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONSTRAINED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A DEFINED CENTER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GPM IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS, WHICH IS
AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 30-45 KNOTS, WITH
AUTOMATED ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDING 40 KNOTS. UNFORTUNATELY
BOTH ASCAT AND OSCAT PASSES MISSED THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD IS IMPINGING ON THE
WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND PROVIDING HIGH (30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), HOWEVER, ROBUST OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS PARTIALLY
COMPENSATING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. JOSIE IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. SHIPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES VWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
FORECAST INTENSITIES REFLECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS OUTFLOW
PARTIALLY OFFSETS THE EFFECTS OF THE VWS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 18P
WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER TAU 48 AS
THERMAL ADVECTION BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
INCREASING VWS TO FINALLY RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER WATER,
HOWEVER, SOME MODELS INDICATE RE-STRENGTHENING AFTER THE SUB-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF
DISSIPATION, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION
SCENARIO MAY PREVAIL. DUE TO LOW SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.
//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 010900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180401084732
2018040106 18P JOSIE 004 01 155 04 SATL 060
T000 199S 1772E 040 R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 207S 1779E 040 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 215S 1785E 035 R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD
T036 227S 1793E 035 R034 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD
T048 240S 1798W 030
T072 260S 1783W 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.9S 177.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 177.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.7S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180401084732
2018040106 18P JOSIE 004 01 155 04 SATL 060
T000 199S 1772E 040 R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 207S 1779E 040 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 215S 1785E 035 R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD
T036 227S 1793E 035 R034 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD
T048 240S 1798W 030
T072 260S 1783W 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.9S 177.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 177.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.7S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.5S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.7S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.0S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.0S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FINAL FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST HAS LIMITED THE OUTFLOW TO THE
WEST, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE SURFACE FLOW AND INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS, WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, WITH DATA-T NUMBERS COMING DOWN
SLIGHTLY. WHILE AUTOMATED FIXES REMAIN HIGHER AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS, OBSERVATIONS IN THE
AREA DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER VALUES. JOSIE IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. SHIPS
INSTENSITY OUTPUT INDICATES VWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE, MAKING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THE FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED OUT TO 72 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT
18P IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUB-TROPICAL, HOWEVER, DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 195S1770E 45
1818040106 199S1772E 40


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 010900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.9S 177.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 177.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.7S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.5S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.9S 177.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 177.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.7S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.5S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.7S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.0S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.0S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FINAL FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS
LIMITED THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE SURFACE FLOW
AND INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS NOW ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED
MSI AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS, WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES, WITH DATA-T NUMBERS COMING DOWN SLIGHTLY. WHILE AUTOMATED
FIXES REMAIN HIGHER AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS, OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA DO
NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER VALUES. JOSIE IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHIPS INTENSITY OUTPUT INDICATES VWS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, MAKING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THE
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED OUT TO 72 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT 18P IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SUB-TROPICAL, HOWEVER, DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 010300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180401015054
2018040100 18P JOSIE 003 01 160 08 SATL 060
T000 197S 1771E 045 R034 145 NE QD 125 SE QD 160 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 203S 1780E 050 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 208S 1786E 045 R034 105 NE QD 160 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 220S 1793E 045 R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 075 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 230S 1800E 045 R034 190 NE QD 215 SE QD 110 SW QD 035 NW QD
T072 252S 1782W 040 R034 135 NE QD 320 SE QD 175 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 282S 1749W 040 R034 130 NE QD 370 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 312S 1724W 050 R050 000 NE QD 115 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 255 SE QD 175 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180401015054
2018040100 18P JOSIE 003 01 160 08 SATL 060
T000 197S 1771E 045 R034 145 NE QD 125 SE QD 160 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 203S 1780E 050 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 208S 1786E 045 R034 105 NE QD 160 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 220S 1793E 045 R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 075 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 230S 1800E 045 R034 190 NE QD 215 SE QD 110 SW QD 035 NW QD
T072 252S 1782W 040 R034 135 NE QD 320 SE QD 175 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 282S 1749W 040 R034 130 NE QD 370 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 312S 1724W 050 R050 000 NE QD 115 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 255 SE QD 175 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.3S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.0S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.2S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.2S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.2S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 177.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1768E 40
1818040100 197S1771E 45


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 010300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.3S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.3S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.0S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.2S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.2S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.2S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 177.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010001Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY COVERED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
EAST OF CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A BROAD LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE KNES AND
PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BUT IS MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PHFO T3.0 (45 KTS) 00Z FIX, AND IS HEDGED BELOW
A 311811Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. TC 18P IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AROUND
TAU 36, SOME MODELS EXPECT AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP TO
THE EAST OF TC 18P AND BRIEFLY PUSH ITS TRACK MORE POLEWARD. TC 18P
IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO SEVERE (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM
WATER (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TEMPORARILY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS
IN THE VICINITY, SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD REMOVED FROM THE CENTER WHILE
MAINTAINING A WARM CORE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STEERING
SCENARIO. DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE NER TO THE EAST
AMPLIFIES LEAD TO SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE DEVELOPING IN THE LATER
TAUS AS SOME MODELS PUSH THE TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD, AND OTHER
MODELS DO NOT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 312100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180331195434
2018033118 18P JOSIE 002 01 115 12 SATL 045
T000 190S 1771E 040 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 000 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 196S 1784E 045 R034 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 202S 1791E 050 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 145 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 210S 1797E 055 R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 160 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 221S 1796W 055 R050 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 205 SE QD 115 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 245S 1780W 040 R034 205 NE QD 270 SE QD 180 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 271S 1751W 040 R034 190 NE QD 385 SE QD 220 SW QD 145 NW QD
T120 304S 1722W 045 R034 210 NE QD 290 SE QD 205 SW QD 175 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 177.1E


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180331195434
2018033118 18P JOSIE 002 01 115 12 SATL 045
T000 190S 1771E 040 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 000 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 196S 1784E 045 R034 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 202S 1791E 050 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 145 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 210S 1797E 055 R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 221S 1796W 055 R050 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 205 SE QD 115 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 245S 1780W 040 R034 205 NE QD 270 SE QD 180 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 271S 1751W 040 R034 190 NE QD 385 SE QD 220 SW QD 145 NW QD
T120 304S 1722W 045 R034 210 NE QD 290 SE QD 205 SW QD 175 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.6S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.2S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.0S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.1S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.5S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.1S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.4S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40
1818033118 190S1771E 40


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 312100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.6S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.2S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.6S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.2S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.0S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.1S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.5S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.1S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.4S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 311744Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT PRONOUNCED TRAILING
BANDING TO THE NORTH AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FOR TC 18P. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE DUE TO A BROAD LLCC BEING PARTIALLY COVERED BY
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KTS IS BASED
BETWEEN MULTIAGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF CURRENT INTENSITY T2.5 (35 KTS)
AND T3.0 (45 KTS), AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A 311359Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 39 KTS. TC 18P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AROUND TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF TC 18P, THOUGH THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST AND PUSH THE SYSTEM ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. TC 18P IS
SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER (28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS) AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS ABOVE TC 18P, SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW AND
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM CORE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO. DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEGREE TO WHICH THE NER TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES LEAD TO SPREAD
BETWEEN GUIDANCE DEVELOPING IN THE LATER TAUS AS SOME MODELS PUSH
THE TRACK MORE POLEWARD, AND OTHER MODELS DO NOT, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z,
011500Z AND 012100Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 311500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180331141604
2018033112 18P JOSIE 001 01 115 12 SATL 030
T000 185S 1759E 040 R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 192S 1774E 055 R050 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 145 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 199S 1786E 065 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 205S 1792E 070 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 175 SE QD
130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 215S 1795E 070 R064 005 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 215 SE QD
125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 238S 1796W 055 R050 040 NE QD 105 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
250 NE QD 285 SE QD 155 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 264S 1775W 045 R034 110 NE QD 375 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 307S 1733W 050 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 375 SE QD 230 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 175.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 180331141604
2018033112 18P JOSIE 001 01 115 12 SATL 030
T000 185S 1759E 040 R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 192S 1774E 055 R050 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 145 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 199S 1786E 065 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 205S 1792E 070 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 175 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 215S 1795E 070 R064 005 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 215 SE QD 125 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 238S 1796W 055 R050 040 NE QD 105 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 285 SE QD 155 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 264S 1775W 045 R034 110 NE QD 375 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 307S 1733W 050 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 375 SE QD 230 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 175.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 175.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.2S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.9S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.5S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.5S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.8S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.4S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.7S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 176.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
//
1818032906 181S1704E 15
1818032912 183S1706E 15
1818032918 183S1709E 15
1818033000 183S1713E 20
1818033006 183S1716E 20
1818033012 181S1722E 25
1818033018 179S1730E 25
1818033100 179S1738E 30
1818033106 180S1747E 30
1818033112 185S1759E 40


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 311500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310221ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 175.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 175.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.2S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310221ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 175.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 175.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.2S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.9S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.5S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.5S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.8S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.4S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.7S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 176.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
311018Z INDICATES THAT TC 18P HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THIS ASCAT PASS. TC
18P IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUECE OF THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. AROUND TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF TC 18P, STEERING IT ON A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK. TC 18P IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
BY STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, BUT TRANSITIONS INTO A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z,
010900Z AND 011500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW
310230)//