Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KENI-18
in Fiji

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-04-09 18:31

WTPS31 PGTW 091500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 173.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 173.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.0S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.5S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 174.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LLC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A
NEWLY-FORMED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 091106Z GPM PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR
TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE
CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
ADDED BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL TO WARNING
MESSAGE AT TAU 36 AND TAU 48, RESPECTIVELY.//

2018-04-09 15:46

WTPS31 PGTW 091400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 173.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 173.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.0S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.5S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 174.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LLC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A
NEWLY-FORMED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 091106Z GPM PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR
TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE
CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//

2018-04-09 09:46

WTPS51 PGTW 090800 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19P SWP 180409070947
2018040906 19P KENI 003 01 115 13 SATL 020
T000 172S 1726E 045 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 184S 1752E 055 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 135 SE QD 060 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 203S 1785E 070 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD
090 SW QD 165 NW QD
T036 239S 1773W 065 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
125 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 225 SE QD
100 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 290S 1730W 055 R050 145 NE QD 110 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
285 NE QD 255 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 433S 1660W 040 R034 305 NE QD 230 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 172.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-04-09 09:46

WTPS51 PGTW 090800
WARNING ATCG MIL 19P SWP 180409070947
2018040906 19P KENI 003 01 115 13 SATL 020
T000 172S 1726E 045 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 184S 1752E 055 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 135 SE QD 060 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 203S 1785E 070 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 090 SW QD 165 NW QD
T036 239S 1773W 065 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 225 SE QD 100 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 290S 1730W 055 R050 145 NE QD 110 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 285 NE QD 255 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 433S 1660W 040 R034 305 NE QD 230 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 172.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 172.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.3S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.9S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.0S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 43.3S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 173.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM EAST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
1918040700 156S1718E 30
1918040706 161S1716E 30
1918040712 166S1714E 30
1918040718 170S1710E 30
1918040800 174S1705E 30
1918040806 169S1701E 30
1918040809 165S1700E 30
1918040812 163S1704E 30
1918040818 164S1709E 35
1918040900 167S1714E 40
1918040906 172S1726E 45

2018-04-09 09:46

WTPS31 PGTW 090800 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 172.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 172.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.3S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-04-09 09:46

WTPS31 PGTW 090800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 172.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 172.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.3S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.9S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.0S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 43.3S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 173.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM EAST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS COALESCED AND WRAPPED INTO AN
OBSCURED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 090315Z SSMI 37 GHZ PASS
AND JUST SOUTHEASTWARD OF AN OVERSHOOTING DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE
090600Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P
IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS
THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT
30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P
WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//

2018-04-08 23:31

WTPS51 PGTW 082100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19P SWP 180408200728
2018040818 19P KENI 001 01 125 04 SATL 060
T000 165S 1707E 035 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 173S 1729E 045 R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 184S 1755E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 150 SE QD 065 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 204S 1787E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD
065 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 238S 1772W 055 R050 100 NE QD 055 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 190 SE QD 060 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 357S 1690W 040 R034 345 NE QD 315 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 170.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 170.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.3S 172.9E

2018-04-08 23:31

WTPS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19P SWP 180408200728
2018040818 19P KENI 001 01 125 04 SATL 060
T000 165S 1707E 035 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 173S 1729E 045 R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 184S 1755E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 150 SE QD 065 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 204S 1787E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD 065 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 238S 1772W 055 R050 100 NE QD 055 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 060 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 357S 1690W 040 R034 345 NE QD 315 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 170.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 170.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.3S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.4S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.8S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.7S 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 171.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
1918040700 156S1718E 30
1918040706 161S1716E 30
1918040712 166S1714E 30
1918040718 170S1710E 30
1918040800 174S1705E 30
1918040806 169S1701E 30
1918040809 165S1700E 30
1918040812 163S1704E 30
1918040818 165S1707E 35

2018-04-08 23:31

WTPS31 PGTW 082100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 170.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 170.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.3S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-04-08 23:31

WTPS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 170.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 170.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.3S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.4S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.8S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.7S 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 171.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 081902Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT TRACK MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DISTINCT POLEWARD CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY
MOTION, TC 19P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF FIJI
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 WITH LAND INTERACTION SLIGHTLY HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36, HOWEVER, NEAR
TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH AND WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AND WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 080200).//