Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FLAMBOYAN-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 020010
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/05/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/05/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-FLAMBOYAN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 84.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/05/02 AT 12 UTC:
20.7 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/05/03 AT 00 UTC:
22.5 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LATEST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE FQIO25 FIMP (ISSUED NEAR 01 UTC)AND FQIO26
FIMP (ISSUED NEAR 13 UTC) BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS WEATHER
SERVICES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 011809
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/05/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/05/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-FLAMBOYAN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 84.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/05/02 AT 06 UTC:
20.2 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/05/02 AT 18 UTC:
22.2 S / 86.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 011206
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/05/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/05/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-FLAMBOYAN) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 84.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/05/02 AT 00 UTC:
19.9 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/05/02 AT 12 UTC:
21.7 S / 85.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 010614
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/05/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/05/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-FLAMBOYAN) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 83.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/05/01 AT 18 UTC:
19.3 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/05/02 AT 06 UTC:
21.3 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010029

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/9/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/05/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 84.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 430 SO: 430 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 260 SO: 300 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 01/05/2018 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 02/05/2018 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 02/05/2018 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 03/05/2018 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 03/05/2018 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 04/05/2018 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 92.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5- CI=3.5+

MALGRE L'ABSENCE DE CHANGEMENT SIGNIFICATIF DANS LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
MONTRENT UNE EVOLUTION VERS UNE STRUCTURE NETTEMENT CISAILLEE. SUR LA
SSMIS DE 2222Z, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE EST CONFINEE AU QUADRANT
SUD-EST, EN MARGE DU CENTRE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ABAISSEE A 55KT.

FLAMBOYAN NE BENEFICIE PLUS MAINTENANT DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A UN
CREUSEMENT TROPICAL AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT PROGRESSIF DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL (ANALYSE A 25KT PAR LE CIMSS A 18Z). DE PLUS, LE POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE DEVIENT INSUFFISANT CE SOIR AU SUD DE 18S. NEANMOINS,
AUJOURD'HUI ET JEUDI, SUITE A L'INTERACTION AVEC DES ANOMALIES
D'ALTITUDE, DES RENFORCEMENTS TEMPORAIRES SONT POSSIBLES EN LIEN AVEC
DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.

FLAMBOYAN CONTINUE DE CONTOURNER LA CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO PRESENTE A L'EST AVEC UN RECOURBEMENT GRADUEL
VERS LE SUD-EST ENVISAGE SUR LA PERIODE DE PREVISION. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, IL DEVRAIT ACCELERER A L'AVANT D'UN PUISSANT THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE DE TRAJECTOIRE A EVOLUE
POUR TENIR COMPTE DES NOUVELLES DONNEES D'ANALYSE (NOTAMMENT EN
DIRECTION).=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010029

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/05/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 84.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 430 SW: 430 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 260 SW: 300 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/05/01 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 83.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/05/02 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/05/02 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/05/03 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 86.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/05/03 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 89.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/05/04 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 92.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=3.5+

DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
CLASSIC IMAGERY, LAST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A CLEAR EVOLUTION TOWARDS A
SHEARED PATTERN. ON 2222Z SSMIS, DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AT SOME DISTANCE OF THE CENTER. INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO 55KT.

FLAMBOYAN DO NOT BENEFIT ANYMORE FROM A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TROPICAL DEEPENING, WITH THE INCREASE OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(ANALYSED AT 18Z AROUND 25KT BY CIMSS). MOREOVER, OCEANIC CONTENT
WILL DECAY SOUTH OF 18S. HOWEVER, DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES WHEN
INTERACTING WITH UPPER ANOMALIES, TEMPORARY DEEPENING ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND THURSDAY.

FLAMBOYAN IS ON ITS TRACK TO ROUND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO IT EAST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TURN EXPECTED
DURING THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY, IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK
CHANGED IN ORDER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST ANALYSIS DATA
(ESPECIALLY IN DIRECTIONS).=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 010014
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/05/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/05/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 84.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTER QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/05/01 AT 12 UTC:
18.5 S / 83.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/05/02 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301825

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/9/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 84.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 430 SO: 430 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 01/05/2018 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 01/05/2018 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 02/05/2018 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/05/2018 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 86.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 03/05/2018 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 03/05/2018 18 UTC: 27.9 S / 92.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5 CI=4.0-

APRES UNE AMELIORATION EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
DE FLAMBOYAN SUGGERE DE PLUS EN PLUS, UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA
CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST EN ALTITUDE (20 KT ANALYSE PAR LE
CIMSS A 15Z). CELA SEMBLE CONFIRME PAR LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES
(SSMIS 1306Z ET AMSU 1543Z) AVEC UN POSSIBLE DECALAGE ENTRE LES
CIRCULATIONS D'ALTITUDE ET DE SURFACE. LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A
DONC TRES PROBABLEMENT COMMENCE. CEPENDANT AU VU DES DONNEES ASCAT
PARTIELLES DE 1543Z ET DE LA PASSE SMAP DE 1220Z, LES VENTS MAXIMAUX
SONT MAINTENUES PAR INERTIE.

FLAMBOYAN NE BENEFICIE PLUS MAINTENANT DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A UN
CREUSEMENT TROPICAL AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT PROGRESSIF DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL. DE PLUS, LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DEVIENT INSUFFISANT
DEMAIN SOIR AU SUD DE 18S. NEANMOINS, DEMAIN ET JEUDI, SUITE A
L'INTERACTION AVEC DES ANOMALIES D'ALTITUDES DES RENFORCEMENTS
TEMPORAIRES SONT POSSIBLES EN LIEN AVEC DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.

FLAMBOYAN CONTINUE DE CONTOURNER LA CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO PRESENTE A L'EST AVEC UN RECOURBEMENT GRADUEL
VERS LE SUD-EST ENVISAGE SUR LA PERIODE DE PREVISION. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, IL DEVRAIT ACCELERER A L'AVANT D'UN PUISSANT THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301825

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 84.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 430 SW: 430 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/05/01 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/05/01 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/05/02 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/05/02 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 86.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/05/03 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/05/03 18 UTC: 27.9 S / 92.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0-

AFTER AN IMPROVEMENT EARLIER TODAY, FLAMBOYAN CLOUD PATTERN SUGGEST
MORE AND MORE CLEARLY, THE INCREASE OF THE NORTH-WESTERN UPPER
CONSTRAINT (ANALYSED AT 15Z AROUND 20 KT BY CIMSS). LAST MICROWAVE
DATA SEEM CONFIRM THAT (SSMIS 1306Z AND AMSU 1543Z) WITH A POSSIBLE
TILT BETWEEN THE UPPER AND LOWER CIRCULATIONS. WEAKENING PHASE LIKELY
STARTED. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN PARTIAL 1543Z ASCAT SWATH AND 1220Z SMAP
DATA, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE MAINTAINED AT 60KT DUE TO INERTIA.

FLAMBOYAN DO NOT BENEFIT ANYMORE FROM A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TROPICAL DEEPENING, WITH THE INCREASE OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MOREOVER, OCEANIC CONTENT WILL DECAY SOUTH OF 18S. HOWEVER, DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES WHEN INTERACTING WITH UPPER ANOMALIES, TEMPORARY
DEEPENING ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND ON THURSDAY.

FLAMBOYAN IS ON ITS TRACK TO ROUND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO IT EAST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TURN EXPECTED
DURING THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY, IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDES TROUGH.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301814
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/04/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 30/04/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 84.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/05/01 AT 06 UTC:
18.2 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/05/01 AT 18 UTC:
19.9 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301305

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/9/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 84.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SO: 430 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 200 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 01/05/2018 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 01/05/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 02/05/2018 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/05/2018 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 03/05/2018 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 03/05/2018 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 87.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/05/2018 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 94.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=4.0-

LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT LA TENDANCE A
L'INTENSIFICATION NOTEE CE MATIN AVEC UN OEIL IRREGULIER BIEN VISIBLE
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI S'EST CONSTITUE ENTRE 00Z ET 06Z. LES
DONNEES ASCAT AINSI QUE LES IMAGES EN 37 GHZ MONTRENT TOUTEFOIS UNE
EROSION SIGNIFICATIVE DUR MUR DE L'OEIL DANS LE SECTEUR NORD.

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST A CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE, STABLE SUR
LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES. TOUTES LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES SONT A 4.0 (57 KT 10 MIN). L'ADT EST A 72 KT (10-MIN) A
1145Z ET LE DERNIER SATCON DE 0832Z DONNE 69 KT (10-MIN). L'INTENSITE
RETENUE A 60 KT EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES DU
SATCON ET LE CONSENSUS DES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES.

LES DONNEES ASCAT ET MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT EGALEMENT QUE LE SYSTEME A
CHANGE DE STRUCTURE PAR RAPPORT A HIER AVEC UN COEUR CENTRAL ET A UN
DEGRE MOINDRE LES EXTENSIONS EXTERNES, PLUS LARGES.

FLAMBOYAN PROFITE DES DERNIERES HEURES DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES. LE
CISAILLEMENT A COMMENCE A AUGMENTE MAIS RESTE RAISONNABLE. LE
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE EST SUFFISANT JUSQU'A L'APPROCHE DE 18S.
L'AUGMENTATION ATTENDUE DU CISAILLEMENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE VA
PROVOQUER UNE TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIVE. CETTE TENDANCE
NE SERA QUE TEMPORAIREMENT INTERROMPUE ULTERIEUREMENT GRACE AUX
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES QUI VONT SE METTRE EN PLACE A PARTIR DE LA FIN
DE JOURNEE DE DEMAIN.

FLAMBOYAN CONTINUE DE CONTOURNER LA CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO PRESENTE A L'EST AVEC UN RECOURBEMENT GRADUEL
VERS LE SUD-EST ENVISAGE SUR LA PERIODE DE PREVISION.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301305

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 84.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 430 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 200 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/05/01 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/05/01 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/05/02 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/05/02 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/05/03 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 85.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/05/03 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 87.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/05/04 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 94.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.0-

LATEST MW DATA SHOW THAT TC FLAMBOYAN HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE LAST
NIGHT WITH AN IRREGULAR MID LEVEL EYE FORMED BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
LATEST ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH 37 GHZ MW IMAGERY REVEAL AN IMPORTANT
WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL.

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAIN STEADY DURING THE LAST THREE HOURS, ON
EMBEDDED CENTER. ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE AT 4.0 OR 57
KT (10-MIN). ADT IS AT 72 KT (10-MIN) AT 1145Z AND THE LATEST
AVAILABLE SATCON (0832Z) IS AT 69 KT (10-MIN). THE INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KT BSED ON A BLENDING OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

ASCAT DATA AND MW IMAGERY ALSO REVEAL THAT FLAMBOYAN HAS NOW A MUCH
LARGER STRUCTURE (INNER-CORE AND, IN A LESSER MANNER THE OUTER WINDS
RADII).

FLAMBOYAN HAS STILL A FEW HOURS OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE SHEAR HAS STARTED TO PICK UP BUT STILL REMAINS LOW.
THE OCEANIC CONTAIN WILL FALL AS THE TRACK WILL NEAR 18S. THE
EXPECTED SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT WILL START AN IRREVERSIBLE WEAKENING
TREND. ONLY BAROCLINIC PROCESS, THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATE TOMORROW,
MAY SLOW DOWN THIS TREND.

FLAMBOYAN IS ON ITS TRACK TO ROUND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO IT EAST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TURN EXPECTED
DURING THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301225
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/04/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 30/04/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 84.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
MORE THAN 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/05/01 AT 00 UTC:
17.1 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/05/01 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300703

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/9/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.8 S / 84.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/S 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 380 SO: 440 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 180 SO: 190 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 30/04/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 01/05/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 01/05/2018 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/05/2018 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 02/05/2018 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 03/05/2018 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/05/2018 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=4.0-

FLAMBOYAN MONTRE DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION SUR LES DERNIERES
HEURES AVEC UN OEIL DECHIQUETTE QUI S'EST FORME PEU AVANT 06 UTC. LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK MANUELLES DE PGTW, KNES ET FMEE SONT A 55-60 KT
(10 MIN), L'ADT EST A 60 KT (10 MIN). UNE PASS SMAP A 0011Z A MESURE
DES VENTS MAX A 60 KT (CONTAMINATION POSSIBLE DUE AUX PLUIES) ET LA
PASS ASCAT DE 0410Z MONTRE DES VENTS MAX A 50 KT. L'INTENSITE RETENUE
EST REHAUSSEE A 55 KT.

LE SYSTEME A RALENTI SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE UN
PEU PLUS MERIDIENNE. IL DEVRAIT GARDER UN CAP GENERAL SUD-SUD-OUEST
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H AVANT DE RECOURBER VERS LE SUD EN JOURNEE
DE DEMAIN PUIS VERS LE SUD-EST MERCREDI EN ACCA LA RANT A L'AVANT
D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AVANT DE S'A VACUER VERS LES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS RESTE BASEE
SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES DISPONIBLES LES PLUS FIABLES
(IFS/GFS/UKMO).

LE SYSTEME A ENCORE UNE PETITE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVANT LUI:
LE CISAILLEMENT N'EST PAS ENCORE TROP FORT ET LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE RESTE TRES BONNE COTA POLAIRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. MAIS PROGRESSIVEMENT, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST ASSOCIA AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE VA SENSIBLEMENT SE RENFORCER
ENTRAINANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME LA NUIT PROCHAINE. A PARTIR
DE MERCREDI, EN EVOLUANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAA CHES ET EN
INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEBUTER SA
PHASE D'EXTRAPOLISATION AVEC L'APPARITION PROGRESSIVE DE CARACTA
RISTIQUES FRONTALES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300703

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 84.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 380 SW: 440 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 180 SW: 190 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/30 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/05/01 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/05/01 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/05/02 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/05/02 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/05/03 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/05/04 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 90.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.0-

FLAMBOYAN SHOW SOME SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE LAST FEW HOURS
WITH A RAGGED EYE FORMED JUST BEFORE 06 UTC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE ARE IN THE 55-60 KT RANGE
(10-MIN). THE ADT IS AT 60 KT (10-MIN). A SMAP PASS AT 0011Z SHOW 60
KT MAX WINDS WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CONTAMINATION. THE ASCAT PASS AT
0410Z SHOW 50 KT WINDS. THE INTENSITY IS FINALLY SET AT 55 KT.

THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND HAS TRACK MORE
POLEWARDS. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A SOUTHWARDS TURN TOMORROW AND THEN
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TOUGH BEFORE EVACUATE TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDE. THE RSMC TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MORE RELIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS (IFS / GFS /
UK)

THE SYSTEM HAS STILL TODAY A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SHEAR IS STILL LOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BUT, PROGRESSIVELY, NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO NOTICEABLY
INCREASE LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. FROM
WEDNESDAY, INTERACTING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND EVOLVING
OVER COOLER SST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START ITS EXTRAPOLISATION PHASE
AND GAIN QUICKLY FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300633
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/04/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 30/04/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 84.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
MORE THAN 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 205 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/05/01 AT 06 UTC:
17.2 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300016 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/9/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1 S / 85.0 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO:
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 30/04/2018 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 01/05/2018 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 01/05/2018 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/05/2018 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 02/05/2018 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 03/05/2018 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/05/2018 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5- CI=3.5

L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT A REDUIT LA TAILLE DU SYSTA ME QUI SE COMPOSE
D'UN PETIT CDO TRES FROID. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMI 85 GHZ DE 2055Z
MONTRE QUE LE COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION A SOUFFERT AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES AVEC L'EROSION DE LA CONFIGURATION MICRO-ONDE EN
OEIL. DES DONNA ES PLUS COMPLETES DE L'ASCAT DE 1604Z MONTRE QUE LA
TEMPA TE EST ESSENTIELLEMENT LOCALISA E DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. EN
FONCTION DE CES DONNA ES, L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 50 KT.

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE LOCALISA E AU SUD, LE SYSTEME A PLONGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, IL EST PREVU RECOURBE VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE
SUD-EST MERCREDI EN ACCA LA RANT A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE
MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AVANT DE S'A VACUER VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES MODELES DISPONIBLES LES PLUS FIABLES.

AUJOURD'HUI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES COMMENCENT A SE DA
GRADER. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVIENT MOINS BONNE CA TE
EQUATORIALE MAIS RESTE TRES BONNE COTA POLAIRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. MAIS PROGRESSIVEMENT, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST ASSOCIA AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE VA SENSIBLEMENT SE RENFORCER
ENTRAINANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DANS
LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN EVOLUANT SUR DES
EAUX PLUS FRAA CHES ET EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEBUTER SA PHASE D'EXTRAPOLISATION AVEC L'APPARITION
PROGRESSIVE DE CARACTA RISTIQUES FRONTALES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300016 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 85.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW:
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/30 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/05/01 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/05/01 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/05/02 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/05/02 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/05/03 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/05/04 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 91.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=3.5

ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR HAS REDUCED THE SIZE OF FLAMBOYAN THAT CONSISTS
OF A SMALL VERY COLD CDO. 2055Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SHOWS THAT THE
INTERNAL CORE HAS SUFFERED DURING THE LAST HOURS WITH THE EROSION OF
THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. DATA FROM 1604Z ASCAT SHOWED THAT STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED ESSENTIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
SO THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 50 KT.

DURING THE NIGHT, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE AT
SOUTH, THE SYSTEM HAS BENDED SOUTHWESWARD. FROM TUESDAY, FLAMBOYAN IS
EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH THEN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
WEDNESDAY AHEAD A MID/UPPER LEVEL TOUGH BEFORE EVACUATE TOWARD THE
MID-LATITUDE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS.

TODAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. EQUATORWARD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES POOR BUT POLERWARD DIVERGENCE REMAINS
VERY GOOD AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BUT, PROGRESSIVELY,
NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO NOTICEABLY INCREASE LEADING TO A QUICK WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT. FROM WEDNESDAY, INTERACTING WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND EVOLVING OVER COOLER SST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
START ITS EXTRAPOLISATION PHASE AND GAIN QUICKLY FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300009

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/9/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1 S / 85.0 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO:
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 30/04/2018 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 01/05/2018 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 01/05/2018 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/05/2018 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 02/05/2018 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 03/05/2018 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/05/2018 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5- CI=3.5

L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT A REDUIT LA TAILLE DU SYSTA ME QUI SE COMPOSE
D'UN PETIT CDO TRES FROID. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMI 85 GHZ DE 2055Z
MONTRE QUE LE COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION A SOUFFERT AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES AVEC L'EROSION DE LA CONFIGURATION MICRO-ONDE EN
OEIL. DES DONNA ES PLUS COMPLETES DE L'ASCAT DE 1604Z MONTRE QUE LA
TEMPA TE EST ESSENTIELLEMENT LOCALISA E DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. EN
FONCTION DE CES DONNA ES, L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 50 KT.

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE LOCALISA E AU SUD, LE SYSTEME A PLONGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, IL EST PREVU RECOURBE VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE
SUD-EST MERCREDI EN ACCA LA RANT A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE
MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AVANT DE S'A VACUER VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES MODELES DISPONIBLES LES PLUS FIABLES.

AUJOURD'HUI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES COMMENCENT A SE DA
GRADER. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVIENT MOINS BONNE CA TE
EQUATORIALE MAIS RESTE TRES BONNE COTA POLAIRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. MAIS PROGRESSIVEMENT, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST ASSOCIA AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE VA SENSIBLEMENT SE RENFORCER
ENTRAINANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DANS
LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN EVOLUANT SUR DES
EAUX PLUS FRAA CHES ET EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEBUTER SA PHASE D'EXTRAPOLISATION AVEC L'APPARITION
PROGRESSIVE DE CARACTA RISTIQUES FRONTALES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300009

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 85.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW:
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/30 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/05/01 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/05/01 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/05/02 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/05/02 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/05/03 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/05/04 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 91.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR HAS REDUCED THE SIZE OF FLAMBOYAN THAT CONSISTS
OF A SMALL VERY COLD CDO. 2055Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SHOWS THAT THE
INTERNAL CORE HAS SUFFERED DURING THE LAST HOURS WITH THE EROSION OF
THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. DATA FROM 1604Z ASCAT SHOWED THAT STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED ESSENTIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
SO THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 50 KT.

DURING THE NIGHT, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE AT
SOUTH, THE SYSTEM HAS BENDED SOUTHWESWARD. FROM TUESDAY, FLAMBOYAN IS
EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH THEN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
WEDNESDAY AHEAD A MID/UPPER LEVEL TOUGH BEFORE EVACUATE TOWARD THE
MID-LATITUDE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS.

TODAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. EQUATORWARD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES POOR BUT POLERWARD DIVERGENCE REMAINS
VERY GOOD AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BUT, PROGRESSIVELY,
NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO NOTICEABLY INCREASE LEADING TO A QUICK WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT. FROM WEDNESDAY, INTERACTING WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND EVOLVING OVER COOLER SST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
START ITS EXTRAPOLISATION PHASE AND GAIN QUICKLY FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300008
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/04/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 30/04/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 85.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 12 UTC:
15.6 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/05/01 AT 00 UTC:
16.9 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291815

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5 S / 85.6 E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 30/04/2018 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 30/04/2018 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 01/05/2018 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 01/05/2018 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 02/05/2018 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/05/2018 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/05/2018 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, L'ANIMATION EN IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE ET LE
PRODUIT D'EAU PRA CIPITABLE DU CIMSS MONTRE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC QUI
DE NOUVEAU S'ENROULE DANS LE QUADRANT EST DU SYSTEME ET QUI ATTEINT
LE QUADRANT SUD VOIRE L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. POUR L'INSTANT, FLAMBLOYAN
RESISTE AVEC DES BURSTS DE CONVECTION REGULIERS PRES DU CENTRE.
MIS A PART LA PRESENCE DE CET AIR SEC, FLAMBOYAN BENEFICIE DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT
FAIBLE SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE A LA
FOIS CA TA EQUATORIALE ET POLAIRE.
EN RAISON DE SA PETITE TAILLE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ETRE SOUMIS DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES, A DE FORTES VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE DANS CET
ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT DONC
ETRE ATTEINT TEMPORAIREMENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES,AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RECOURBER
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS VERS LE SUD MARDI. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, FLAMBOYANT EST PREVU ACCA LA RER VERS LE SUD-EST A L'AVANT
D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AVANT DE S'A VACUER VERS LES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE
SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES DISPONIBLES LES PLUS FIABLES.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES COMMENCENT A SE
DA GRADER. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVIENT MOINS BONNE CA TE
EQUATORIALE MAIS RESTE TRES BONNE COTA POLAIRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. MAIS PROGRESSIVEMENT, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST ASSOCIA AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE VA SENSIBLEMENT SE RENFORCER
ENTRAINANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DANS
LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN EVOLUANT SUR DES
EAUX PLUS FRAA CHES ET EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEBUTER SA PHASE D'EXTRAPOLISATION AVEC L'APPARITION
PROGRESSIVE DE CARACTA RISTIQUES FRONTALES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291815

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 85.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/30 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/04/30 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/05/01 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/05/01 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/05/02 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/05/02 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/05/03 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, INFRARED ANIMATED IMAGERY AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOW DRY AIR THAT WRAPS OVER
EASTERN QUADRANT AND REACHES THE SOUTHERN THEN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
FOR NOW, FLANBLOYAN RESISTS WITH STEADY BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER.
EXCEPT THIS DRY AIR, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH
WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BOTH
EQUATORWARD AND POLERWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE, THE SYSTEM MAY UNDERGO RAPID INTENSITY
CHANGES DURING THE NEXT HOURS , IN THIS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MAY BE REACH TEMPORARILY TONIGHT.

DURING THE NEXT HOURS, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE MID TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE AT SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEND SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD FROM TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY, FLANBOYAN IS FORECASTED TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE
EVACUATE TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
A MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM TOMORROW, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE.
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES POOR BUT POLERWARD
DIVERGENCE REMAINS VERY GOOD AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BUT,
PROGRESSIVELY, NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED TO THE
TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO NOTICEABLY INCREASE LEADING TO A QUICK
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT. FROM WEDNESDAY,
INTERACTING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND EVOLVING OVER COOLER
SST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START ITS EXTRAPOLISATION PHASE AND GAIN
QUICKLY FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291810
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/04/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/04/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 85.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 06 UTC:
14.7 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 18 UTC:
15.7 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291808
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/04/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/04/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 85.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 06 UTC:
14.7 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 18 UTC:
15.7 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 291500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 21S SIO 180429141835
2018042912 21S FLAMBOYAN 006 01 245 16 SATL 025
T000 128S 0863E 060 R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 139S 0847E 070 R064 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD
135 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 150S 0838E 065 R064 010 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD
140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 163S 0834E 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 205 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 177S 0833E 045 R034 130 NE QD 205 SE QD 130 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 205S 0837E 035 R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 240S 0855E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 21S SIO 180429141835
2018042912 21S FLAMBOYAN 006 01 245 16 SATL 025
T000 128S 0863E 060 R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 139S 0847E 070 R064 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 135 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 150S 0838E 065 R064 010 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 163S 0834E 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 205 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 177S 0833E 045 R034 130 NE QD 205 SE QD 130 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 205S 0837E 035 R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 240S 0855E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.9S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.0S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.3S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.7S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.5S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.0S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 85.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 884 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
//
2118042618 69S 988E 15
2118042700 71S 982E 15
2118042706 73S 976E 20
2118042712 74S 970E 25
2118042718 76S 958E 25
2118042800 82S 942E 30
2118042806 89S 925E 35
2118042812 95S 910E 40
2118042818 102S 901E 45
2118042900 111S 890E 50
2118042906 121S 878E 55
2118042906 121S 878E 55
2118042912 128S 863E 60
2118042912 128S 863E 60


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 291500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.9S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.9S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.0S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.3S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.7S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.5S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.0S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 85.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 884 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH COOLING TOPS COVERING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 291221Z SSMI/S 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
60 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T3.5 (65 TO 55 KNOTS), ALONG WITH A RECENT
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (ABOUT 10 KNOTS), SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 21S
IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY UNDER THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT TAU 12. AS TC 21S BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND
RECURVE TO THE SOUTH, INCREASING VWS ALONG WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS AT TAU 96. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN JUST FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36, AND THEN THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MODEL
SPREAD, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291255

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/9/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.9 S / 86.1 E
(DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 310 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 30/04/2018 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 30/04/2018 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 01/05/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 01/05/2018 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 02/05/2018 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/05/2018 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/05/2018 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0-

L'AIR SEC PRESENT CE MATIN A PROXIMITE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SEMBLE
AVOIR ETE EN GRANDE PARTIE COMPENSE PAR L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. EN
EFFET, LA CIRCULATION INTERNE COMPACTE EST MAITENANT SITUEE AU SEIN
D'UNE VASTE ZONE DE CONVECTION PROFONDE COMME LE MONTRE LA PASSE GMI
DE 1051Z. AINSI, L'INTENSIFICATION QUI AVAIT RALENTI CE MATIN A
VRAISEMBLABLEMENT REPRIS.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PLUS ELEVE ET
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER
VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD. FLAMBOYAN DEVRAIT DONC DECRIRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PARABOLIQUE CLASSIQUE EN CONTOURNANT PAR L'OUEST LA
DORSALE. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DES ENSEMBLES
DISPONIBLES AUGMENTE A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD-OUEST QUI POURRAIT ACCELERER (OU
NON) L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD-EST. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES
DISPONIBLES LES PLUS FIABLES.

FLAMBOYAN EST PLACE ACTUELLEMENT SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE EN ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT EST DONC FAIBLE ET LA
DIVERGENCE EXCELLENTE. EN RAISON DE SA PETITE TAILLE, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT ETRE SOUMIS DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, A DE FORTES
VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE. LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT TEMPORAIREMENT LA NUIT
PROCHAINE.

A PARTIR DEMAIN, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS PLUS EN ALTITUDE, DEVRAIT
RAPIDEMENT ADVECTER DE L'AIR SEC, AU SEIN DU COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE,
ENTRAINANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUTOT RAPIDE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE,L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AU SUD DE 20S ET LE
MAITIEN DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL VONT FAVORISER L'EXTRA-TROPICALISAT
ION DE FLAMBOYAN. CE DERNIER DEVRAIT ALORS LENTEMENT SE COMBLER EN
S'ELOIGNANT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291255

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 86.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/30 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/04/30 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/05/01 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/05/01 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/05/02 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/05/02 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/05/03 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 87.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

THE DRY AIR MASS LOCATED THIS MORNING AROUND THE CORE, APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN COMPENSATED BY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY, THE
COMPACT INNER CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION AS IN THE 1051Z GMI SWATH.THEREFORE, THE DEEPENING THAT
SLOWED THIS MORNING, APPARENTLY RESUMED.

DURING THE NEXT HOURS, WITH A HIGHER STEERING LEVEL AND THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE AT SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEND SOUTH-WESTWARD
THEN SOUTHWARD. SO, FLAMBOYAN SHOULD FOLLOW A CLASSIC PARABOLIC TRACK
CIRCUMVENTING BY WEST THE RIDGE. THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INCREASES FROM TUESDAY, AS THE
ARRIVAL OF A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST COULD ACCELERATE
(OR NOT) THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST. THE
RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS.

FLAMBOYAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
UPPER RIDGE, WINDSHEAR THUS REMAINS LOW AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
STRONG. GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE, THE SYSTEM MAY UNDERGO RAPID INTENSITY
CHANGES DURING THE NEXT HOURS , IN THIS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MAY BE REACH TEMPORARILY TONIGHT.

BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE INCREASE OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IN
MID-TROPOPSHERE THEN HIGHER MAY ADVECT RAPIDLY DRY AIR WITHIN THE
SMALL INNER CORE, TRIGERRING A RATHER QUICK WEAKENING. FROM TUESDAY,
THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC CONTENT
SOUTH OF 20S IS FORECAST TO START THE EXTRA-TROPICALISATION OF
FLAMBOYAN. THE SYSTEM MAY THEN SLOWLY FILL-UP WHILE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291210
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/04/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/04/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 86.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 12 UTC:
15.2 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290639

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/9/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 87.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 310 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 29/04/2018 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 30/04/2018 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2018 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 01/05/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 01/05/2018 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 02/05/2018 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/05/2018 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 04/05/2018 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST CONCENTREE
ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE ET DANS UNE BANDE INCURVEE ENTOUREE QUI
S'ENROULE RAPIDEMENT AUTOUR DU COEUR INTERNE. FLAMBOYAN A UNE
STRUCUTRE TRES COMPACTE AVEC LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS CONCENTRES A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE CE MATIN
(SSMIS 0043Z ET WINDSAT 0026Z), LE CONFIRMENT ET MONTRENT UN OEIL
TRES BIEN DEFINI NOTAMMENT EN 37GHZ. LE SYSTEME EST DONC CLASSE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE 50 KT A MINIMA EN ATTENDANT DE NOUVELLES DONNEES.

FLAMBOYAN DEVRAIT DECRIRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PARABOLIQUE CLASSIQUE EN
CONTOURNANT PAR L'OUEST UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE
ACTUELLEMENT AU SUD-EST. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET
DES ENSEMBLES DISPONIBLES AUGMENTE A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD-OUEST QUI POURRAIT
ACCELERER (OU NON) L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD-EST. LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
MODELES DISPONIBLES LES PLUS FIABLES.

FLAMBOYAN EST PLACE ACTUELLEMENT SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE EN ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT EST DONC FAIBLE ET LA
DIVERGENCE EXCELLENTE. EN RAISON DE SA PETITE TAILLE, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT ETRE SOUMIS DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, A DE FORTES
VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT FAVORABLE. LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT TEMPORAIREMENT
AVANT LUNDI MATIN.

A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE
CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS PLUS EN
ALTITUDE, DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT ADVECTER DE L'AIR SEC, AU COEUR DU
SYSTEME. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE,L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES AU SUD DE 20S ET LE MAITIEN DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL VONT
FAVORISER L'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION DE FLAMBOYAN. CE DERNIER DEVRAIT
ALORS LENTEMENT SE COMBLER EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290639

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 87.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/29 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/04/30 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/04/30 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/05/01 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/05/01 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/05/02 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/05/03 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/05/04 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 89.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCATED FAR FROM
THE CENTER, AND IN A CURVED BAND, SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, WRAPPING
RAPIDLY AROUND THE INNER CORE. FLAMBOYAN IS VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS
0043Z AND WINDSAT 0026Z) CONFIRM THAT, AND SHOW A WELL DEFINED EYE
ESPECIALLY IN 37GHZ. THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
50 KT AT MINIMUM, UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF NEW DATA.

FLAMBOYAN SHOULD FOLLOW A CLASSIC PARABOLIC TRACK STEERED BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST. THE
DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INCREASES FROM TUESDAY, AS THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH-WEST COULD ACCELERATE (OR NOT) THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FLAMBOYAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
UPPER RIDGE, WINDSHEAR THUS REMAINS LOW AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
STRONG. GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE, THE SYSTEM MAY UNDERGO RAPID INTENSITY
CHANGES DURING THE NEXT HOURS , IN THIS RATHER CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MAY BE REACH TEMPORARILY BEFORE MONDAY
MORNING.

BY THE END OF THE NIGHT, THE INCREASE OF A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT
IN MID-TROPOPSHERE THEN HIGHER IS LIKELY TO ADVECT DRY AIR WITHIN THE
INNER CORE OF THE LOW. FROM TUESDAY, THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC CONTENT SOUTH OF 20S IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
THE EXTRA-TROPICALISATION OF FLAMBOYAN. THE SYSTEM MAY THEN SLOWLY
FILL-UP WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWARD.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290620
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/04/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/04/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 87.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 175 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/29 AT 18 UTC:
13.8 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 06 UTC:
14.8 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290042

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/9/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.2 S / 88.9 E
(ONZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 29/04/2018 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 30/04/2018 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2018 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 01/05/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 02/05/2018 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/05/2018 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 04/05/2018 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 87.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0-

SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES, LA CONVECTION S'EST DE NOUVEAU
ENROULEE AUTOUR DU CENTRE ATTEIGNANT PLUS D'UN DEMI-TOUR A 00Z. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DES PASSES AMSR2 DE 1834Z ET AMSU-B DE 2231Z
MONTRENT TOUJOURS UN COEUR INTERNE COMPACT ET DEJA BIEN CONSOLIDE.
LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAKS OBJECTIVES (ADT) ET SUBJECTIVES PRODUITES PAR
LES AUTRES AGENCES SONT EN ACCORD AVEC L'ANALYSE DU CMRS A 3.0.

FLAMBOYAN DEVRAIT DECRIRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PARABOLIQUE CLASSIQUE EN
CONTOURNANT PAR L'OUEST UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE
ACTUELLEMENT AU SUD-EST. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET
DES ENSEMBLES DISPONIBLES AUGMENTE A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD-OUEST QUI POURRAIT
ACCELERER (OU PAS) L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD-EST. LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES
MODELES DISPONIBLES.

FLAMBOYAN EST PLACE ACTUELLEMENT SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE EN ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT D'EST EST DONC FAIBLE
ET LA DIVERGENCE EXCELLENTE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROFITER DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR S'INTENSIFIER GRADUELLEMENT
AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN MATIN. A PARTIR DE LUNDI APRES-MIDI, DE L'AIR
SEC POURRAIT COMMENCER A S'INFILTRER DANS LA CIRCULATION GRACE UNE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE D'EST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. MARDI, LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN ALTITUDE ET L'ARRIVEE
SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AU SUD DE 20S VONT ENCLENCHER
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE FLAMBOYAN. AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290042

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 88.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/29 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/04/30 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/04/30 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/05/01 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/05/01 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/05/02 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/05/03 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/05/04 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

ON THE LAST SAT IMAGES, CONVECTION WRAPPED AGAIN TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CENTER, REACHING .7 AT 00Z. THE 1834Z AMSR2 AND 2231Z AMSU-B MW
IMAGES STILL SHOW A COMPACT AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED INNER CORE.
OBJECTIVE (ADT) AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM OTHER AGENCIES
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RSMC ANALYSIS AT 3.0.

FLAMBOYAN SHOULD FOLLOW A CLASSIC PARABOLIC TRACK STEERED BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST. THE
DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INCREASES FROM TUESDAY, AS THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH-WEST COULD ACCELERATE (OR NOT) THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FLAMBOYAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
UPPER RIDGE, THE EASTERLY WINDSHEAR THUS REMAINS LOW AND THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS STRONG. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THIS CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TODAY AND TOMORROW
MORNING. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON, DRY AIR COULD BEGIN TO SLITHER IN THE
CIRCULATION THANKS TO AN EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT APPEARING IN THE
MID-LEVELS. FROM TUESDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF AN UPPER
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE DECREASE OF THE ENERGY IN THE OCEAN
SOUTH OF 20S WILL TRIGGER THE WEAKENING PHASE OF FLAMBOYAN. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL-UP BY THE END OF THE TAUS WHILE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290017
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/04/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/04/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 88.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 175 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/29 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/04/30 AT 00 UTC:
13.6 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281835

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/9/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.9 S / 90.1 E
(NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 29/04/2018 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 29/04/2018 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 30/04/2018 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 30/04/2018 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 01/05/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 01/05/2018 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/05/2018 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 03/05/2018 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

FLAMBOYAN EST SUR LA LIMITE EST DU BASSIN. LA CONVECTION EST TOUJOURS
MOINS ETENDUE ET MOINS INTENSE QU'EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE MAIS RESTE
CONCENTREE PRES DU CENTRE. L'IMAGE MICRO ONDE 89GHZ DE LA PASSE SSMIS
DE 1233Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE CENTRALE COMPACTE EN COURS DE
CONSOLIDATION. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1530Z EST PASSEE SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE
EST RELATIVEMENT PRES DU CENTRE ET N'A MONTRE QUE DU GRAND FRAIS. LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAKS OBJECTIVES (ADT) ET SUBJECTIVES PRODUITES PAR LES
AUTRES AGENCES SE REPARTISSENT ENTRE 2.5 ET 3.0, EN ACCORD AVEC
L'ANALYSE DU CMRS.

FLAMBOYAN DEVRAIT DECRIRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PARABOLIQUE CLASSIQUE EN
CONTOURNANT UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE ACTUELLEMENT AU
SUD-EST. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DES ENSEMBLES
DISPONIBLES EST FAIBLE ET SE FAIT PRINCIPALEMENT LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE PAR DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING. EN FIN DE PERIODE,
L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD-OUEST
POURRAIT FAVORISER L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD-EST.

FLAMBOYAN EST PLACE ACTUELLEMENT SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE EN ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT EST DONC FAIBLE ET LA
DIVERGENCE EXCELLENTE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROFITER DE CETTE FENETRE
DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR S'INTENSIFIER
GRADUELLEMENT. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, DE L'AIR SEC POURRAIT
COMMENCER A S'INFILTRER DANS LA CIRCULATION ALORS QU'UN CISAILLEMENT
DE NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE. MARDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT
ET L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AU SUD DE 20S VONT ENCLENCHER
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE FLAMBOYAN. AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281835

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9 S / 90.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/29 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 88.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/04/29 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/04/30 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/04/30 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/05/01 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/05/01 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/05/02 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/05/03 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 89.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

FLAMBOYAN IS CURRENTLY ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE RSMC AREA OF
RESPONSABILITY. CONVECTION REMAINS LESS SPREAD THAN EARLY TODAY BUT
STILL CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CENTER. 89GHZ MW IMAGE OF THE SSMIS
1233Z SWATH SHOW A CONSOLIDATING COMPACT INNER CORE. 1530Z ASCAT
SWATH COVERED THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE QUITE CLOSE TO THE CENTER BUT
SHOWED WINDS ONLY REACHING NEAR GALE WINDS. OBJECTIVE (ADT) AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM OTHER AGENCIES RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND
3.0, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RSMC ANALYSIS.

FLAMBOYAN SHOULD FOLLOW A CLASSIC PARABOLIC TRACK STEERED BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST. THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SUGGEST A LOW DISPERSION WITH
MAINLY ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES OF TIMING. IN THE END OF THE TAUS, THE
ARRIVAL OF A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST COULD ACCELERATE
THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST.

FLAMBOYAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
UPPER RIDGE, WIND SHEAR IS THUS LOW AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
STRONG. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THIS WINDOW OF CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. FROM MONDAY EVENING,
DRY AIR COULD BEGIN TO SLITHER IN THE CIRCULATION, WHILE A
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR BEGIN TO APPEAR. TUESDAY, THE STRENGHTENING OF
THE SHEAR AND LESS ENERGY IN THE OCEAN SOUTH OF 20S WILL TRIGGER THE
WEAKENING PHASE OF FLAMBOYAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL-UP BY
THE END OF THE TAUS WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWARD.=