Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALBERTO-18
in United States, Cuba, Mexico, Belize

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280530
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
100 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...ALBERTO MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 86.1 West. The
storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-
northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the
northern Gulf Coast in the warning area by this afternoon. The
weakening system is forecast to move well inland into the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches
the northern Gulf Coast later today. Steady weakening is forecast
after landfall, and Alberto will likely become a subtropical
depression tonight or early Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant
low by Tuesday afternoon.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center. NOAA buoy 42039 in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust
to 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft and
buoy observations is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 to 25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area
throughout the day.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible today across
much of Florida, central and southern Georgia, southern South
Carolina, and southeastern Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280244
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The 0130 UTC center penetration by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicated that the central pressure had held at 991 mb, and no
stronger winds were found after the earlier pass through the center.
Therefore the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The
system is still not well organized with some elongation of the
center noted. Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so
the cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window
of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially
closed. Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall,
which is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus and
the Florida State University Superensemble and HCCA predictions.

The forward motion has slowed and turned toward the left and is now
estimated to be 315/08 kt. Alberto is moving on the northeastern
side of a broad deep-layer cyclonic circulation. Early this week,
a ridge is forecast to build to the east of the storm, and a trough
will approach Alberto from the northwest. This pattern should
induce a northward turn over the next few days. Due to the recent
more northwestward motion of the storm, the first 12-24 hours of the
official forecast have been shifted a little to the west of the
previous one. Overall, however the latest NHC forecast has not been
changed much and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast overnight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the
track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area
are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government
officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area overnight and tomorrow.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 28.5N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 29.6N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 33.3N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 35.8N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 41.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 46.5N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280242
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Anclote River to the Suwannee
River is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.8 West. The
storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-
northwestward to northward motion is expected Monday through
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move
over the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight and cross the northern
Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday. Alberto is expected to
move inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and move into the
Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches
the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 to 25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area
overnight and continue through Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible on Monday
across much of Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern
South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280241
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE
RIVER IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 85.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.6N 86.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.3N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 35.8N 87.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 41.5N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 46.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 85.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280056 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Special Advisory Number 11...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Corrected Albert to Alberto in intensity paragraph

...ALBERTO STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM CDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 85.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 730 PM CDT (0030 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. The
storm is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
northwest to north-northwest motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected overnight. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight and cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on
Monday. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee Valley
on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little additional strengthening is expected before Alberto
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20-25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within
the warning area tonight and continue through Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the central and northern Florida peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280038
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

This special advisory is being issued to show that, based on
observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, that
Alberto strengthened to an intensity of 55 kt. Based on this, the
intensity forecast through 24 hours is revised upward. No change
has been made to the track forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east
of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0030Z 28.4N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Special Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM CDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 85.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 730 PM CDT (0030 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. The
storm is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
northwest to north-northwest motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected overnight. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight and cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on
Monday. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee Valley
on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little additional strengthening is expected before Albert
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20-25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within
the warning area tonight and continue through Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the central and northern Florida peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280028
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
0030 UTC MON MAY 28 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.7W AT 28/0030Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.7W AT 28/0030Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 85.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 280006
TCUAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

..ALBERTO STRONGER...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Alberto has strengthened and the maximum
sustained winds are now 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued within the hour.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 272039
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

After the increase in organization overnight and this morning, dry
mid-level air has wrapped about three-quarters of the way around
the circulation, resulting in an overall decrease in deep
convection in all but the southeastern portion of the circulation.
Earlier ASCAT and reconnaissance aircraft data supported an initial
wind speed of 45 kt, and that intensity will be maintained for this
advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this evening.

The main question regarding the future intensity of Alberto is
whether or not the dry air will continue to be ingested near the
center of the cyclone, or whether deep convection is able to
regenerate overnight while the system is over marginally warm
SSTs and within a low shear environment. It is assumed that some
convection will redevelop to help maintain Alberto's intensity, but
that the environment will not be favorable enough to allow for
significant strengthening. As a result, little change in intensity
is forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast on
Monday.

Alberto appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial
motion estimate of 345/12 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward
to north-northwestward tonight before turning back northward on
Monday as it becomes vertically aligned with the upper-level low.
After that time, the system should continue moving northward between
the western Atlantic ridge and a mid-upper level trough that
approaches the central U.S. around mid-week. The dynamical models
are in much better agreement on Alberto's track during the next 2 to
3 days, and the NHC track has been been adjusted accordingly. The
new track is slightly west of and slower than the previous track
during the first 24 to 36 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east
of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 28.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 272038
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Anclote River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued along the northern Gulf
Coast west of Navarre, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The
storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
north-northwest motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is
expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight
and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday.
Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the
northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of
Alberto. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Alberto reaches the
northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall,
and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday night
or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20-25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within
the warning area tonight and continue through Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the central and northern Florida peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 272038
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
2100 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE ANCLOTE RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WEST OF NAVARRE... FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 85.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 271743
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
200 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast
to occur later today or tonight. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of
Mexico today and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning
area tonight or Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm
conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the
arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move
northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the system
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression by
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily
to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of
20 inches.

The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6
inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast
United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward in the
warning area along the west coast of Florida today and will reach
the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida
peninsula today.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 271605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.05.2018

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 83.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.05.2018 26.4N 83.9W MODERATE
00UTC 28.05.2018 27.9N 85.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.05.2018 28.7N 86.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.05.2018 30.5N 86.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.05.2018 33.3N 86.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.05.2018 35.6N 87.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.05.2018 38.1N 87.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2018 40.7N 87.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2018 43.6N 85.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2018 45.8N 82.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 31.4N 58.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.05.2018 30.5N 58.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.06.2018 29.5N 57.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2018 29.1N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2018 29.3N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.06.2018 29.7N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271605


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 271438
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

The satellite and radar presentation of Alberto has improved
markedly over the past 12 hours or so. Deep convection has
increased and become organized in a primary band that wraps around
the western and northwestern portions of the storm and the
circulation has also become much better defined than 24 hours ago.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has recently indicated
that the pressure has fallen to 994 mb. The aircraft has also
reported peak flight-level winds of 49 kt and believable SFMR winds
of around 40 kt, however, the aircraft has not yet sampled the
northwestern portion of the circulation where the deepest convection
is located. Assuming that there are slightly higher winds in that
area, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.

With deep convection closer to the center and a slightly smaller
radius of maximum winds, it appears that Alberto is beginning its
transition to a tropical cyclone. The reconnaissance aircraft data
also indicate that a shallow warm core is present. It is likely
that Alberto will make the transition to tropical storm later today
or tonight. As this transition occurs, some additional
strengthening is forecast while Alberto moves over marginally warm
sea surface temperatures and the shear relaxes. However, dry mid-
level air wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation
could slow the intensification process before Alberto reaches the
coast.

The initial motion estimate of 005/12 is again highly uncertain due
to the center re-formations that have occurred over the past 12 to
24 hours. The cyclone should move generally northward today, then
turn northwestward around the northeastern side of a cutoff low over
the central Gulf of Mexico. The timing and location of landfall of
the center will be dependent on when the northwestward turn occurs.
The latest ECMWF forecast moves Alberto faster northward before it
makes the turn and therefore brings the center onshore much sooner
and farther eastward than the UKMET and GFS. The NHC forecast is
near the model consensus, and is somewhat faster than the previous
advisory. Users should remember not to focus on the exact timing
and location of landfall since wind and rain will continue to spread
northward over the northeastern Gulf Coast well ahead of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of
flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and
south Florida today. The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding will
then spread over much of the southeast U.S. tonight and Monday.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well east of the
track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area
are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast today and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 27.1N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 28.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1200Z 30.3N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0000Z 31.6N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1200Z 33.6N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 38.3N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 43.3N 84.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 46.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 271437
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 84.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the north-central Gulf Coast has
been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the
Florida/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 84.4 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast
tonight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected late
Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today and
approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area tonight or
Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely
reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center
of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move northward into the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the
system reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is
expected after landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a
tropical depression by Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to
the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of
20 inches.

The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6
inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast
United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward in the
warning area along the west coast of Florida today and will reach
the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida
peninsula today.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 271437
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
1500 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE
FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 84.4W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 84.4W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.7N 84.9W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.3N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.6N 86.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.6N 86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.3N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 43.3N 84.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 46.5N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 84.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 271149
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
800 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...SLIGHTLY STRONGER ALBERTO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHWARD OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations in this case during the next
36 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.4 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast
tonight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected
Tuesday through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today
and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area tonight or
Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely
reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center
of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move northward into the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after
Alberto makes landfall, and it is forecast to become a tropical
depression by Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of
20 inches.

The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6
inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast
United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas,
and these conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern
Gulf Coast by later today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida
peninsula today.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 270849
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
500 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Alberto appears a little better organized this morning with an area
of deep convection gradually expanding near and to the north of the
center. A large band of showers and thunderstorms extends well to
the east of the center from western Cuba to south Florida and the
northwestern Bahamas. Despite the improved organization, a fairly
recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of about 35 kt, and
therefore, the initial wind speed is held at that value. Based on
the system's structure, it still appears to be subtropical, but it
is gaining some more tropical characteristics. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later
this morning, and should provide a better assessment of its
intensity and structure.

The initial motion of 015/11 is highly uncertain since the center
of the storm has been re-forming and wobbling around. In fact,
another center re-formation can not be ruled out since Doppler radar
images show a pronounced mid-level circulation to the northeast of
the low-level center. Alberto is expected to turn northward later
today and then northwestward tonight as it moves around the eastern
side of a cutoff mid- to upper-level low over the central Gulf of
Mexico. After Alberto merges with the upper low, a turn back to the
north is forecast by Monday night and Tuesday. The latest model
guidance has shifted notably to the right, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted by about 30 n mi in that direction.
The eastward shift necessitates extending the tropical storm warning
along the Gulf coast of Florida.

Even though Alberto has not yet strengthened, slow intensification
seems likely until it reaches the coastline on Monday. The reasons
for intensification consist of diffluence associated with a
negatively tilted upper-level trough, lower shear, and marginally
warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the intensity models
show a weaker solution this cycle, perhaps because the center may
move inland a little sooner, and no model shows Alberto reaching
hurricane strength. Based on this guidance, the NHC forecast has
been lowered slightly, but it still lies near the high end of the
model predictions. Alberto is likely to complete its transition to
a tropical storm within 24 hours when it moves into an area of light
shear, which should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core
and become more symmetric.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of
flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and
south Florida through the day. The risk for heavy rainfall and
flooding will then spread over many parts of the southeast U.S.
tonight and Monday.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well
east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their
local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast today and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 25.0N 84.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 26.8N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 28.6N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 28/1800Z 30.0N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 29/0600Z 31.7N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 36.2N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 41.1N 85.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 45.0N 80.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 270848
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
500 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 84.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued along the Gulf coast of
Florida from Anclote River to Aucilla River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations in this case during the next
36 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.2 West. The
storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
turn toward the north is expected later this morning, and a motion
toward the north-northwest is forecast tonight through Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and make
landfall over the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area Monday
afternoon or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm
conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the
arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move
northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Steady weakening is expected
after Alberto makes landfall, and it is forecast to become a
tropical depression by Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) mainly to
the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Pulaski
Shoals, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 32 mph (52
km/h) and a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 inches.

The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6
inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast
United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas,
and these conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida later today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern
Gulf Coast by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida
peninsula today.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to spread northward
along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 270847
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
0900 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DRY TORTUGAS
* BONITA BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE
NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.8N 84.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.6N 85.2W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.0N 86.0W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.7N 86.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 36.2N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 41.1N 85.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 45.0N 80.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 270532
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
200 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 84.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 84.5 West. The storm
is moving generally toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, and
a motion toward the north-northwest is forecast this afternoon
through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto
will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday,
and make landfall over the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area
late Monday afternoon or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Steady weakening is expected
after Alberto makes landfall.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Pulaski
Shoals, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54
km/h) and a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few hours ago was 1001 mb
(29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect the eastern Gulf
Coast region into the southeastern United States later today and
continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward
after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum
amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from
much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into western Tennessee.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches
are possible across eastern Mississippi and from the southern
Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas,
and these conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida later today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern
Gulf Coast by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across the Florida Keys
and south Florida overnight, and are possible across the entire
state of Florida later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to spread northward
along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 270307 CCA
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Corrected typo in key message 3

During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just
north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the
center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position.
Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best
ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened. The maximum
flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35
kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR winds outside of the
convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than
the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they
were. In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt
which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the
strength of the storm. Finally, the central pressure has not fallen
since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb. The initial
intensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative.

In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm
due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just
west of the cyclone. After that time, the trough is forecast to
become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or
just north of the low in an area of lighter shear. This evolution
should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become
more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto
transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h.
There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane
before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt
peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast. After
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken
over land through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward,
although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains
possible. From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move
north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low. This
should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern
United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the
westerlies. The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the
new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the
previous track. On the current forecast track, Alberto would make
landfall near the 48 h point.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding
potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast
region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning
Sunday and will continue into next week.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well
east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their
local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 270256
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just
north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the
center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position.
Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best
ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened. The maximum
flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35
kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR winds outside of the
convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than
the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they
were. In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt
which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the
strength of the storm. Finally, the central pressure has not fallen
since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb. The initial
intensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative.

In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm
due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just
west of the cyclone. After that time, the trough is forecast to
become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or
just north of the low in an area of lighter shear. This evolution
should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become
more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto
transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h.
There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane
before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt
peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast. After
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken
over land through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward,
although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains
possible. From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move
north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low. This
should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern
United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the
westerlies. The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the
new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the
previous track. On the current forecast track, Alberto would make
landfall near the 48 h point.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding
potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast
region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning
Sunday and will continue into next week.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well
east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their
local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within of the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 270256
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 84.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the
Mississippi/Alabama border.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. The storm
is moving generally toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later tonight, and a
motion toward the north-northwest is expected Sunday through Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then move near
or over the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the warning area
late Monday afternoon or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Pulaski
Shoals, Florida recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph
(61 km/h) and a wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect the eastern Gulf
Coast region into the southeastern United States on Sunday and
continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward
after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum
amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from
much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into western Tennessee.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches
are possible across eastern Mississippi and from the southern
Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
and in the warning area along the west coast of Florida beginning
later tonight and Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected
within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday
night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across the Keys
and south Florida tonight, and across all of the state on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread northward
along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 270256
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
0300 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR PINAR DEL RIO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DRY TORTUGAS
* BONITA BEACH TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* AUCILLA RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 84.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 84.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 84.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 262357
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 84.8 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a north-northwest turn on Sunday, and this general
motion should continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast in the warning area on Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily
to the east of the center. Key West, Florida recently reported a
wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical Storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas and in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida beginning Sunday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the
northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by
early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and
tonight across parts of west-central Florida, including the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. For more information, consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 262051
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Before departing the storm, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft flew near the low-level cloud swirl that became apparent
in visible satellite imagery over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico late this morning. Data from the plane indicate that the
center had reformed in that location and that the pressure had
fallen to 999 mb. The aircraft did not sample the area to the east
of the new center, but based on recent satellite classifications and
surface observations the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory.

The primary mechanism for intensification appears to be a shortwave
trough moving southeastward into the larger negatively tilted trough
over the eastern Gulf, which should cause a cutoff low to form
during the next 24 hours. This is expected to result in deepening
of Alberto while it moves generally northward over the Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night. The shear is forecast to
decrease as Alberto become co-located with the upper-level low and
the system could transition to a more tropical cyclone-like
structure before landfall. The NHC intensity forecast once again
calls for steady strengthening through 36 h, but shows little
strengthening after that time due to the possibility of dry air
intrusion.

The system has moved generally northward during the past 24 hours,
however, the reformation of the center today makes the initial
motion estimate more uncertain than normal. Alberto should move
northward to north-northeastward tonight, and then turn
north-northwestward and decelerate on Sunday and Sunday night as
it moves around the eastern side of the trough/cutoff low. The
dynamical models remain in good agreement on this scenario but
have shifted eastward once again. The interpolated guidance models
lie a bit west of the model fields due to the more northwestward
1800 UTC initial position of Alberto. As a result, the NHC track is
along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope as a compromise
between the ECMWF/GFS model fields and trackers.

The new NHC track forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Florida
and a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday
and will continue into next week.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center. Residents in the warning and watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 23.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 25.4N 84.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 27.5N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 28.9N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 28/1800Z 30.0N 87.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 29/1800Z 33.6N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 38.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 42.4N 83.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 262051
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 85.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach to the Anclote River.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast
from the Aucilla River westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued west of the Mouth of
the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued to the west of the
Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 85.1 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a north-northwest turn on Sunday, and this general
motion should continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast in the warning area on Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical Storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas and in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida beginning Sunday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the
northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by
early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and
tonight across parts of west-central Florida, including the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. For more information, consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 262050
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
2100 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* DRY TORTUGAS
* BONITA BEACH TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* AUCILLA RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 85.1W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 85.1W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.4N 84.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 85.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.9N 86.3W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.0N 87.0W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 33.6N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 38.3N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 42.4N 83.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 261743
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
200 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO REFORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 85.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca Grande to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located by reconnaissance aircraft and satellite data near
latitude 22.8 North, longitude 85.2 West. The storm is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a slower
north-northwestward motion on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and approach the northern
Gulf Coast in the watch area late Monday or Monday night. Heavy
rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the
northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of
Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
Florida west coast on Sunday, and along the northern Gulf Coast
by Sunday night or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida late this afternoon through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 261444
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

There has been an increase in convection to the east and southeast
of the center of Alberto this morning, however, the overall
organization of the system has not changed much. Visible satellite
imagery and recent reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the
circulation is somewhat elongated and a new low-level center could
be forming just northwest of the western tip of Cuba. As suggested
by the global models there could be several re-formations of or a
discontinuity in the track of the low-level center today. Although
there have been no recent observations to support the 35-kt
intensity, the intensity is held at that value since the aircraft
has not sampled the area well east of the center and due to the
overall increase in convection.

A shortwave trough dropping southeastward over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico is expected to sharpen the larger negatively tilted trough
over the eastern Gulf, which is expected to cause the cyclone to
deepen during the next 24 to 36 hours. This trend is consistent
with the global model guidance which unanimously strengthen Alberto
through Sunday. After that time, Alberto is expected to be
co-located with the upper-level low which should result in some
decrease in shear and a possible transition to a more tropical
cyclone-like structure. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady
strengthening, but only the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance brings
Alberto near hurricane strength before landfall. Steady weakening
should occur after the center moves inland.

Alberto is moving northward to north-northeastward at about 9 kt.
The cyclone should continue on this general heading today, but it
is expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down on Sunday and
Sunday night as it interacts with the mid- to upper-level
trough/low over the Gulf. The track guidance has shifted slightly
eastward this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. The new NHC track is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
models, but it is not as far east as the UKMET or the TVCA
multi-model consensus. The eastward adjustment in the track
forecast has required the issuance of a tropical storm watch for a
portion of the west coast of Florida and an eastward nudge of the
watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday
and will continue into next week.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and
tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 21.6N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 23.8N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 26.0N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 27.4N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 29/1200Z 31.6N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 35.6N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 39.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 261443
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 84.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas in the
Florida Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to Anclote River. The Tropical
Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been
extended eastward to the Aucilla River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Crystal River,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca Grande to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 84.9 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to
the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Alberto is expected to move near the western tip of Cuba this
afternoon, track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through
Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas later today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
Florida west coast on Sunday, and along the northern Gulf Coast
by Sunday night or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida late this afternoon through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 261442
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
1500 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO ANCLOTE
RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CRYSTAL RIVER
FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA GRANDE TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* AUCILLA RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 84.9W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 84.9W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.8N 84.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.0N 85.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.4N 86.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.7N 86.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.6N 87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 35.6N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 39.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 261146
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Yucatan Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Cuba, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected today,
followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Alberto is expected to move near the western
tip of Cuba today, track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Saturday night through Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast
in the watch area Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
buoy is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 3 to 7 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys
and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the United States watch area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida this evening and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 260853
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Alberto is not very well organized this morning. Satellite images
indicate that the low-level center is located between widespread
showers and thunderstorms well to its northeast and patches of deep
convection to its south and east. The struggling cyclone continues
to battle westerly shear and dry air. A recent ASCAT pass indicated
that winds near the center were not particularly strong. The initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt pending a sampling of
the circulation farther east by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
in a few hours. Alberto remains subtropical given its sprawling
structure and involvement with an upper-level trough.

The subtropical storm has now turned north-northeastward at an
estimated speed of 6 kt. This general motion with a increase in
forward speed is expected throughout the day today, taking the
center of Alberto through the Yucatan Channel. A turn to the
northwest is forecast on Sunday as the storm rotates around a
developing mid- to upper-level low in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Alberto is predicted to be very near the northern Gulf Coast in
about 72 hours, and should then turn northward and northeastward
when it moves inland over the eastern U.S. The models are in
fairly good agreement this cycle, but they have trended a bit faster
from previous runs. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly, and lies fairly close to the latest consensus aids.

Only slow strengthening is expected today due to the broad nature
of the system and continued influences of westerly shear and dry
air. There is an opportunity for more significant strengthening
tonight and Sunday when the shear is expected to lessen and
Alberto moves into a region of upper-level diffluence while it
remains over warm SSTs. The models also suggest that Alberto will
likely make a transition to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and
that is reflected in the official forecast below. The official
intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and is in
line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

The HMON model is now the only intensity guidance that makes
Alberto a hurricane before it reaches the coast. Although a
hurricane watch could still be required for a portion of the Gulf
Coast later today, the recent intensity guidance trends suggest
that this possibility is decreasing.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.9N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 21.6N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 24.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 26.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 28/0600Z 27.5N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 29/0600Z 30.4N 87.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 30/0600Z 33.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0600Z 38.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 260852
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
faster north-northeastward motion is expected later today, followed
by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is expected to move through the Yucatan Channel
today and track across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night through
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 3 to 7 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys
and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida this evening and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 260851
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
0900 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HORSESHOE BEACH FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA... IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.6W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.6W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.6N 85.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.3N 85.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.2N 85.9W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.5N 86.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.4N 87.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 33.3N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 38.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 85.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 260532
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
100 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 85.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Alberto's center
is located a little farther south than previously estimated. At 100
AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 85.7 West. The storm is
moving generally toward the east near 4 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected to begin later today, with a faster motion
toward the north expected Saturday night and Sunday. A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
with little change in strength forecast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southern and southwestern Florida beginning this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 260402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.05.2018

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 86.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.05.2018 19.1N 86.1W WEAK
12UTC 26.05.2018 20.7N 84.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.05.2018 23.9N 84.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.05.2018 27.0N 83.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.05.2018 28.6N 85.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.05.2018 29.5N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.05.2018 31.6N 85.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.05.2018 34.2N 85.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.05.2018 36.4N 86.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.05.2018 37.0N 87.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2018 38.7N 85.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2018 40.5N 82.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2018 42.1N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260402


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 260245
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Satellite imagery, earlier aircraft data, and surface observations
indicate that Alberto is rather disorganized. A prominent mid-level
center is near the western tip of Cuba, with the convection somewhat
organized around it. However, the low-level center is about 170 n
mi south-southwest of the mid-level center. There are no recent
observations of gale-force winds, so the initial intensity will
remain an uncertain 35 kt. An upper-level trough just to the west
and northwest of the cyclone is advecting cool and dry air into
Alberto, and thus the system remains a subtropical cyclone at this
time.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 090/4. Alberto should
turn northward during the next 12 h or so in response to the
nearby upper-level trough, with this motion continuing through
about 36 h. After that, a north-northwestward motion is likely as
the aforementioned trough becomes a closed low over the central
Gulf of Mexico and Alberto moves around the northeast side. This
evolution should cause Alberto to move through the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the next 2-3 days, and then make landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast between 72-96 h. After landfall, Alberto should
continue northward through the southeastern United States. The new
forecast track is nudged a bit to the east of the previous track
during the first 36 h based on the initial position, and it lies
just to the west of the consensus models. One uncertainty in the
track forecast is the possibility that the center could re-form to
the north, which at the least could change the timing of the
forecast track.

The dynamical models forecast Alberto to reach an area of stronger
upper-level divergence in about 24 h, with the models agreeing on
more significant development starting about that time. The
intensity forecast shows a slower development rate for the first 24
h than the previous forecast, then shows a faster development to
the 55-kt peak intensity of the previous forecast. After landfall,
Alberto should quickly weaken over land. The new intensity forecast
is near the intensity consensus and the SHIPS model.

Some of the intensity guidance suggests that Alberto could become a
hurricane before landfall. If the guidance trends stronger, a
hurricane watch could be needed for a portion of the Gulf Coast on
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is
expected to slow down after it moves inland.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.4N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 20.7N 85.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 22.9N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 25.4N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 27.0N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 29/0000Z 29.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
96H 30/0000Z 32.5N 88.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0000Z 36.5N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 260244
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...ALBERTO STILL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 85.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. The storm
is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected later tonight, with a faster motion toward the
north expected Saturday through Sunday. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with
little change in strength forecast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southern and southwestern Florida beginning Saturday
evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 260244
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
0300 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HORSESHOE BEACH FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* INDIAN PASS TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA... IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.7W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.7W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 85.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.9N 85.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.4N 85.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.0N 86.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.5N 87.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 32.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 85.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 252350
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.0 West. The storm
is moving erratically toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
and erratic motion toward the north is expected tonight. From
Saturday afternoon into Sunday, a general northward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
with little change in strength forecast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft and surface observations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 252058
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The inner-core low-level wind field of Alberto has changed little
since the previous advisory based on recent data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with land and ship
observations. However, the convective structure of the cyclone has
degraded over the past several hours due a pronounced intrusion of
dry mid-/upper-level air and the cloud pattern continues to exhibit
the structure of a subtropical cyclone. The lowest pressure measured
thus far by the aircraft has been 1006 mb. The initial position is a
little north of the recon position of a pronounced swirl due to the
broad overall nature of the low-level circulation.

The initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt, but this is considered to
be a short-term motion. A gradual turn toward the north should begin
later tonight due to a strong ridge located to the east across the
Greater Antilles. A steadier northward motion is forecast to occur
by Saturday evening and continue into Sunday as a sharp
mid/upper-level trough digging southward into the central Gulf of
Mexico combines with southerly flow around the western portion of a
large subtropical ridge to produce deep-layer southerly flow across
Alberto. By 48 hours and continuing through 72 hours, the developing
mid/upper-level low over the central Gulf should cause the cyclone
to turn northwestward and accelerate until it nears the Gulf Coast
by Monday night. After that, steering currents are forecast to
collapse as a broad weakness develops in the subtropical ridge axis
located along the Gulf coast. Slow but steady recurvature into the
westerlies across the Deep South is expected to begin by 96-120 h.
The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows the consensus models TVCN and HCCA, and the
Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) model.

The broad nature of the inner-core wind field, along with strong
westerly wind shear in excess of 20 kt is forecast to continue for
the next 24 hours. The latest model runs actually decrease the shear
sooner than previously forecast, but the ragged nature of the wind
field should prevent any significant intensification until after 48
hours. As a result, only slow but steady strengthening is expected
for the next 3 days, and Alberto could peak around 60 kt around 60
hours when the storm will be in a low wind shear regime and
over SSTs greater than 28 deg C. However, proximity to dry mid-
level air around landfall could hinder any additional strengthening,
and the NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous
advisory, closely following a blend of the HCCA and ICON consensus
models and the FSSE model.

The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of tropical storm
and storm surge watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast at
this time. Note that if the intensity forecast increases with later
advisories, a hurricane watch could be needed for a portion of the
Gulf Coast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeaster
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is
expected to slow down after it moves inland.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches have
been issued for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch
areas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast
track of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 20.7N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 22.5N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 24.8N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 28/1800Z 29.0N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
96H 29/1800Z 31.7N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 35.2N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 252048
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast of the United States from Horseshoe Beach, Florida,
westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast of the United States from Indian Pass, Florida, westward
to Grand Isle, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.3 West. The storm
is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic
motion toward the north is expected tonight. From Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a general northward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected, followed by a turn toward the northwest
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with
little change in strength forecast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches)
based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 252047
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
2100 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM HORSESHOE BEACH FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA WESTWARD TO
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HORSESHOE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* INDIAN PASS TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.7N 86.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.5N 85.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.8N 85.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.0N 87.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 31.7N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 35.2N 87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 86.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 251732
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
100 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...ALBERTO MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge
watches could be required for portions of this area later today or
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.5 West. The
storm has been nearly stationary during the past several hours.
However, a general slow motion toward the north is expected through
the weekend, followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast
track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the
Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday
morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday
night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 251605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.05.2018

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 85.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.05.2018 18.6N 85.6W WEAK
00UTC 26.05.2018 19.2N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.05.2018 20.6N 85.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.05.2018 22.2N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.05.2018 26.3N 83.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.05.2018 29.1N 84.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.05.2018 29.9N 86.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.05.2018 30.9N 85.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.05.2018 33.9N 85.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.05.2018 35.7N 86.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.05.2018 36.9N 86.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2018 38.5N 85.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2018 39.4N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251605


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 251444
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for
the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved
offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the
overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that
the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,
the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm.
The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of
30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z
reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to
35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this
afternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad
inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term
motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge
to the east should generally induce a slow north to north-
northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a
mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of
Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96
hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly as it
nears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the
subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The
official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN
and HCCA.

Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind
shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual
intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone
is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into
an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional
strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will
remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air
before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States
later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to
slow down after it moves inland.

2. Alberto could bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast later this weekend
and early next week, although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Alberto, as tropical storm and storm
surge watches may be required later today or tonight.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 19.7N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 20.5N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 24.1N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 26.7N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 29.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 31.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 33.6N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 251443
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge
watches could be required for portions of this area later today or
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general
slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend,
followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast track,
Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning,
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and
approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 251443
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018
1500 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO. TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE
WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 86.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 86.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 87.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N 86.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 24.1N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.7N 86.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.3N 87.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 31.0N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 33.6N 88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 86.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART