Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LEEPI-18
in Korea, Republic of, Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180815201058
2018081518 19W LEEPI 020 05 040 08 SATL 060
T000 365N 1301E 030
T012 373N 1333E 030
T024 382N 1391E 025
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 020
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 36.5N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 37.3N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 38.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 9 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081418 322N1312E 45
1918081500 339N1300E 35
1918081506 349N1294E 30
1918081512 359N1295E 30
1918081518 365N1301E 30


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 020
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 36.5N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 37.3N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 38.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180815131948
2018081512 19W LEEPI 019 05 010 10 SATL SYNP 045
T000 359N 1296E 030
T012 373N 1321E 030
T024 383N 1358E 025
T036 397N 1397E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 019
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 35.9N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 35.9N 129.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 37.3N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 38.3N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 39.7N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 36.2N 130.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081418 322N1312E 45
1918081500 339N1300E 35
1918081506 349N1294E 30
1918081512 359N1296E 30


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 019
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 35.9N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 35.9N 129.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 37.3N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 38.3N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 39.7N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 36.2N 130.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180815074354
2018081506 19W LEEPI 018 04 335 11 SATL RADR SYNP 045
T000 349N 1294E 030
T012 367N 1305E 030
T024 380N 1341E 025
T036 395N 1382E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 018
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 34.9N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 34.9N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 36.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 38.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 39.5N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 35.3N 129.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 19 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081418 322N1312E 45
1918081500 339N1300E 35
1918081506 349N1294E 30


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 018
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 34.9N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 34.9N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 36.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 38.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 39.5N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 35.3N 129.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 19 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 35N 129E
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 34.5N 129.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 30NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 36.7N 134.0E 80NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180815020734
2018081500 19W LEEPI 017 04 330 18 SATL 040
T000 337N 1301E 035 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 356N 1297E 030
T024 374N 1315E 030
T036 396N 1376E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 017
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 33.7N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 35.6N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 37.4N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 39.6N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 34.2N 130.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081418 321N1312E 45
1918081500 337N1301E 35


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 017
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 33.7N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 35.6N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 37.4N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 39.6N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 34.2N 130.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND
160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 33.9N, 130.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 1815 LEEPI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150000UTC 34.0N 130.0E
MOVEMENT NW 21KT
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 1004 HPA
AT 33.9N 130.0E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 35.5N 129.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 36.5N 132.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 33.9N 130.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 30NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 36.5N 132.4E 80NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 33.2N 130.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM EAST 30NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 36.5N 129.4E 80NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180814203210
2018081418 19W LEEPI 016 03 290 17 SATL 060
T000 321N 1312E 045 R034 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 341N 1294E 040 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 361N 1292E 035 R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 375N 1301E 025
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 32.1N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.1N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.1N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 36.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 37.5N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 32.6N 130.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081412 316N1331E 55
1918081418 321N1312E 45


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 32.1N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.1N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.1N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 36.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 37.5N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 32.6N 130.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND
152100Z.REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEEPI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 32.5N, 131.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT06 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT18 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 998 HPA
AT 32.5N 131.4E KYUSYU MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 34.7N 129.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 36.2N 129.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 32.5N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM EAST 50NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 36.2N 129.4E 80NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 996 HPA
AT 32.0N 132.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 34.2N 129.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 35.5N 128.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 32.0N 132.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 50NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 35.5N 128.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 161200UTC 35.9N 131.0E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180814142755
2018081412 19W LEEPI 015 03 310 16 SATL RADR SYNP 045
T000 314N 1335E 055 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T012 334N 1306E 045 R034 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 350N 1291E 035 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD
T036 366N 1279E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 31.4N 133.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.4N 133.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 33.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 35.0N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 36.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 132.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081412 314N1335E 55
1918081412 314N1335E 55


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 31.4N 133.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.4N 133.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 33.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 35.0N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 36.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 132.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND
151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 31.3N, 133.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT09. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT18 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 31.3N, 133.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT09. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT18 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER
THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 994 HPA
AT 31.3N 133.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 33.6N 130.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 35.1N 129.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 35.9N 131.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 31.3N 133.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 70NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 35.1N 129.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161200UTC 35.9N 131.0E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 994 HPA
AT 30.9N 134.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 33.0N 130.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 34.8N 128.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 30.9N 134.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 34.8N 128.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 160600UTC 33.4N 124.7E 100NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180814084400
2018081406 19W LEEPI 014 03 315 15 SATL RADR 030
T000 304N 1349E 055 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 055 NW QD
T012 324N 1318E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T024 335N 1297E 045 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD
T036 340N 1289E 040 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 343N 1283E 035 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD
T072 343N 1275E 025
T096 339N 1266E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 30.4N 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 134.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 32.4N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 33.5N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 34.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 34.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 34.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 33.9N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 134.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081406 304N1349E 55
1918081406 304N1349E 55


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 30.4N 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 134.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 32.4N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 33.5N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 34.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 34.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 34.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 33.9N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 134.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 994 HPA
AT 30.4N 134.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 32.5N 131.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 33.9N 127.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 33.4N 124.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 134.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 30.4N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 33.9N 127.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 160600UTC 33.4N 124.7E 100NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 996 HPA
AT 29.6N 135.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 31.7N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 33.7N 128.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 29.6N 135.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 33.7N 128.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 160000UTC 34.2N 121.9E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180814015001
2018081400 19W LEEPI 013 03 320 14 SATL 030
T000 293N 1361E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T012 314N 1328E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 055 NW QD
T024 328N 1297E 040 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD
T036 334N 1283E 035 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 335N 1273E 030
T072 330N 1259E 025
T096 323N 1247E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 29.3N 136.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 136.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.4N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 32.8N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 33.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.0N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 32.3N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 135.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081312 274N1378E 55
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081318 282N1371E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60
1918081400 293N1361E 60


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 29.3N 136.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 136.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.4N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 32.8N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 33.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.0N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 32.3N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 135.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND
150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 29.3N, 136.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 29.3N, 136.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 140000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 1815 LEEPI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 140000UTC 29.3N 136.2E
MOVEMENT NW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 150000UTC 32.2N 129.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 25KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 996 HPA
AT 29.3N 136.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 31.4N 132.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 33.4N 129.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 34.2N 121.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 29.3N 136.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 33.4N 129.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 160000UTC 34.2N 121.9E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 132100
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 996 HPA
AT 29.1N 136.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 31.2N 133.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 33.2N 129.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 29.1N 136.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 33.2N 129.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151800UTC 33.3N 122.7E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180813195500
2018081318 19W LEEPI 012 03 315 11 SATL 060
T000 281N 1368E 050 R050 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 299N 1342E 045 R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 015 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 313N 1310E 035 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 324N 1276E 030
T048 325N 1259E 025
T072 301N 1245E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 28.1N 136.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 136.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.9N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.3N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 32.4N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.5N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.1N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 136.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 443 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 273N1377E 55
1918081312 273N1377E 55
1918081318 281N1368E 50
1918081318 281N1368E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 28.1N 136.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 136.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.9N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.3N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 32.4N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.5N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.1N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 136.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 443 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 28.3N, 137.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ADJACENT
SYSTEM. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 131800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 1815 LEEPI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 131800UTC 28.3N 137.2E
MOVEMENT NW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 141800UTC 31.4N 129.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 31KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 996 HPA
AT 28.3N 137.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 30.4N 134.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 32.4N 129.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 33.3N 122.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 28.3N 137.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 32.4N 129.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151800UTC 33.3N 122.7E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 131500
WARNING 131500.
WARNING VALID 141500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 996 HPA
AT 27.7N 137.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 29.8N 134.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 31.7N 130.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 27.7N 137.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 31.7N 130.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 151200UTC 30.4N 124.3E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180813134214
2018081312 19W LEEPI 011 02 315 11 SATL 040
T000 273N 1377E 055 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T012 291N 1347E 045 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 025 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 305N 1317E 035 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 015 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 314N 1288E 030
T048 316N 1263E 025
T072 302N 1246E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 011
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 27.3N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.5N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 136.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z
AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081312 273N1377E 55
1918081312 273N1377E 55


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 011
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 27.3N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.5N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 136.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z
AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 27.0N, 138.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ADJACENT
SYSTEM. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 131200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 1815 LEEPI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 131200UTC 27.1N 138.2E
MOVEMENT NW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 141200UTC 30.6N 131.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 151200UTC 31.6N 127.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 996 HPA
AT 27.0N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.1N 135.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 31.0N 131.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 30.4N 124.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 27.0N 138.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 31.0N 131.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151200UTC 30.4N 124.3E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130900
WARNING 130900.
WARNING VALID 140900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 996 HPA
AT 26.7N 138.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 28.8N 135.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 30.8N 131.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 26.7N 138.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 30.8N 131.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 150600UTC 32.9N 125.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 160600UTC 28.9N 122.3E 220NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180813065553
2018081306 19W LEEPI 010 02 310 12 SATL 045
T000 265N 1386E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 284N 1358E 060 R050 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 302N 1325E 050 R050 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 313N 1296E 040 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 316N 1279E 030
T072 314N 1254E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 26.5N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 138.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.2N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.3N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.4N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 137.9E.
TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081218 247N1406E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081300 257N1396E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
1918081306 265N1386E 65
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 26.5N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 138.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.2N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.3N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.4N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 137.9E.
TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 26.5N, 138.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR IS UNFAVORABLE
FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 130600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 1815 LEEPI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 130600UTC 26.4N 138.7E
MOVEMENT NW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 140600UTC 30.2N 132.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 150600UTC 31.5N 128.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 996 HPA
AT 26.5N 138.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 28.4N 135.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 30.6N 132.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 32.9N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 28.9N 122.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 26.5N 138.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 30.6N 132.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 150600UTC 32.9N 125.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 160600UTC 28.9N 122.3E 220NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130300
WARNING 130300.
WARNING VALID 140300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
996 HPA
AT 25.9N 139.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 27.8N 136.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 29.9N 132.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1815 LEEPI (1815) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 25.9N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 29.9N 132.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 19KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150000UTC 31.6N 125.4E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 160000UTC 28.6N 122.1E 170NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 25.3N, 139.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F16/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 25.3N, 139.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F16/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180813011056
2018081300 19W LEEPI 009 02 320 12 SATL 020
T000 254N 1398E 060 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T012 273N 1373E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW Q
D 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 035 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 293N 1343E 060 R050 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T036 310N 1305E 050 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T048 315N 1283E 035 R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 313N 1260E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 25.4N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.3N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.5N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 31.3N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 139.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 245N1407E 65
1918081218 245N1407E 65
1918081218 245N1407E 65
1918081300 254N1398E 60
1918081300 254N1398E 60


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 25.4N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.3N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.5N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 31.3N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 139.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 998 HPA
AT 25.3N 139.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 27.1N 137.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.1N 133.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 31.6N 125.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 28.6N 122.1E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 25.3N 139.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 29.1N 133.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 150000UTC 31.6N 125.4E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 160000UTC 28.6N 122.1E 170NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 24.9N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 28.7N 134.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 141800UTC 30.8N 127.3E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180812194057
2018081218 19W LEEPI 008 02 320 11 SATL 020
T000 245N 1407E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 265N 1385E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 284N 1358E 060 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T036 300N 1326E 050 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T048 311N 1295E 040 R034 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 025 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 310N 1267E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 24.5N 140.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 140.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.5N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.0N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.1N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 140.2E.
TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 37 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081212 237N1415E 65
1918081218 245N1407E 65
1918081218 245N1407E 65
1918081218 245N1407E 65


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 24.5N 140.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 140.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.5N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.0N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.1N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 140.2E.
TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 37 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 24.4N, 140.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 24.4N, 140.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 121800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 1815 LEEPI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121800UTC 24.4N 140.9E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 131800UTC 29.1N 135.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 141800UTC 30.8N 130.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 998 HPA
AT 24.4N 140.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 26.3N 138.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 28.5N 135.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 30.8N 127.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 24.4N 140.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 28.5N 135.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 141800UTC 30.8N 127.3E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 24.1N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 28.2N 135.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 141200UTC 31.8N 129.3E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180812125920
2018081212 19W LEEPI 007 02 335 09 SATL 040
T000 236N 1417E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 255N 1396E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 035 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 277N 1366E 060 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T036 294N 1335E 050 R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T048 304N 1307E 040 R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 313N 1272E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 23.6N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.5N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.7N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.4N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.4N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 141.2E.
TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081206 228N1421E 60
1918081212 236N1417E 65
1918081212 236N1417E 65
1918081212 236N1417E 65


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 23.6N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.5N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.7N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.4N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.4N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 141.2E.
TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 23.5N, 141.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 998 HPA
AT 23.5N 141.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 25.7N 139.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 27.8N 136.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 31.8N 129.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 23.5N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 27.8N 136.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 141200UTC 31.8N 129.3E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 23.2N 141.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 27.4N 137.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 140600UTC 31.9N 132.1E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180812072205
2018081206 19W LEEPI 006 02 335 13 SATL 045
T000 228N 1420E 060 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T012 247N 1401E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 035 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 265N 1380E 060 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 075 NW QD
T036 280N 1357E 050 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 065 NW QD
T048 293N 1331E 040 R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 308N 1291E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.7N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.0N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.8N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 141.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z,
122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081206 228N1420E 60
1918081206 228N1420E 60


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.7N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.0N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.8N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 141.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z,
122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W
(YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 141.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 998 HPA
AT 22.8N 141.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 24.9N 139.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 26.8N 137.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 31.9N 132.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 22.8N 141.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 26.8N 137.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 140600UTC 31.9N 132.1E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 22.4N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 26.2N 138.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 140000UTC 29.2N 132.8E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180812014853
2018081200 19W LEEPI 005 02 340 10 SATL 020
T000 216N 1426E 060 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T012 235N 1411E 060 R050 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 010 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 075 NW QD
T024 256N 1391E 055 R050 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T036 275N 1364E 050 R050 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T048 287N 1337E 040 R034 085 NE QD 065 SE QD 015 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 307N 1294E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 21.6N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 142.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.5N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.6N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.5N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 28.7N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 142.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081112 200N1435E 60
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081118 207N1430E 55
1918081200 216N1426E 60
1918081200 216N1426E 60


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 21.6N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 142.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.5N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.6N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.5N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 28.7N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 142.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z
AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) 998 HPA
AT 21.6N 142.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 23.6N 141.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 25.5N 139.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.2N 132.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1815 LEEPI (1815) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 20.9N 143.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 23.1N 141.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 25.6N 140.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 29.0N 134.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 21.6N, 142.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 21.6N 142.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 25.5N 139.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 140000UTC 29.2N 132.8E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 21.1N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 25.8N 139.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 131800UTC 29.0N 134.7E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180811195825
2018081118 19W NINETEEN 004 02 335 10 SATL 025
T000 210N 1431E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 045 NW QD
T012 229N 1417E 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 065 NW QD
T024 247N 1399E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T036 266N 1377E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 025 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 280N 1355E 035 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 301N 1300E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.9N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.7N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.6N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.0N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.1N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z,
121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 201N1436E 55
1918081112 201N1436E 55
1918081118 210N1431E 55
1918081118 210N1431E 55


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.9N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.7N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.6N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.0N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.1N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z,
121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS (LEEPI) STATUS THREE HOURS AGO. TS
LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 20.9N, 143.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS (LEEPI) STATUS THREE HOURS AGO. TS
LEEPI IS LOCATED AT 20.9N, 143.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 20.9N 143.6E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 25.6N 140.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 131800UTC 29.0N 134.7E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1815 LEEPI (1815) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 20.6N 143.5E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 25.3N 140.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180811134704
2018081112 19W NINETEEN 003 02 340 11 SATL 045
T000 201N 1436E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 045 NW QD
T012 219N 1421E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 237N 1404E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 255N 1383E 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T048 269N 1361E 045 R034 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 285N 1319E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.1N 143.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 143.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.9N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.7N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.5N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 26.9N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 143.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM NORTH
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 35
1918081106 191N1440E 45
1918081112 201N1436E 55
1918081112 201N1436E 55


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.1N 143.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 143.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.9N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.7N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.5N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 26.9N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 143.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM NORTH
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180811081854
2018081106 19W NINETEEN 002 02 330 13 SATL 045
T000 194N 1437E 030
T012 212N 1424E 040 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 229N 1408E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 248N 1389E 030
T048 266N 1369E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.2N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.9N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.8N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.6N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 143.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI)
1918080712 126N1535E 15
1918080718 126N1527E 15
1918080800 126N1520E 15
1918080806 126N1514E 15
1918080812 126N1507E 15
1918080818 127N1500E 15
1918080900 129N1496E 15
1918080906 131N1494E 15
1918080912 138N1492E 15
1918080918 149N1484E 15
1918081000 159N1468E 20
1918081006 169N1461E 20
1918081012 171N1454E 20
1918081018 176N1446E 20
1918081100 183N1444E 25
1918081106 194N1437E 30


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.2N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.9N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.8N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.6N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 143.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 110300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.9N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.6N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 144.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07CKNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW)CFOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
CORRECTED MANOP HEADER NUMBER.//
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