Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ERNESTO-18
in Ireland, United Kingdom

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180834
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018

Ernesto lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation
is becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto
has become a post-tropical cyclone. The system could still produce
35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to
slowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland
and merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical
cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland
and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday.

Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion
should continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and
wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met
Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued
by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 51.9N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 18/1800Z 53.5N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 19/0600Z 55.0N 5.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180833
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018

...ERNESTO NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.9N 20.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM NNE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ernesto was located near latitude 51.9 North, longitude 20.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to continue, and Ernesto should merge with a
frontal zone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180833
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.9N 20.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 130SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 300SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.9N 20.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 51.2N 22.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.5N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 130SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 55.0N 5.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.9N 20.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180232
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Organized deep convection associated with Ernesto has dissipated
after the issuance of the last advisory. If it does not return,
which seems unlikely with the system moving over SSTs of 16C or
less, Ernesto should become a post-tropical cyclone by early
Saturday.

Geostationary and microwave imagery along with ASCAT data indicate
that the mid-level circulation has begun to separate from the
low-level center. A partial ASCAT-A pass from 2148 UTC showed a
large area of 35-40 kt winds south and southeast of the center, and
on that basis the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Ernesto is
forecast to weaken only a little during the next 24 hours while it
approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone Saturday night.
The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it
moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early
Sunday.

Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt and this motion
should continue until dissipation. The new NHC forecast is close to
the previous one and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance envelope.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 50.4N 25.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 52.3N 18.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 19/0000Z 54.1N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

...ERNESTO RACING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SATURDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.4N 25.6W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM N OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 50.4 North, longitude 25.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the
forecast track the post-tropical cyclone and its remnants will move
across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical overnight, and slight
weakening is forecast to occur Saturday while Ernesto merges with a
frontal zone by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the south and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180231
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.4N 25.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 130SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 300SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.4N 25.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 49.8N 27.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.3N 18.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 130SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 54.1N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 130SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.4N 25.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 172032
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto's cloud pattern has deteriorated since this morning with
deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming a little more
separated from the low-level center. However, there is still enough
organized convection to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone a
little longer. The most recent satellite estimates and earlier
ASCAT data still support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Ernesto
will continue moving over colder waters and is expected to become
post-tropical this evening. Little change in strength is predicted
during the next 12-24 hours while the system moves over quickly
across the northern Atlantic. Global models indicate that the
cyclone will weaken as it approaches Ireland Saturday night and the
system should merge with a frontal zone located across the central
portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland by Sunday morning.

The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 27 kt. Now that the
system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a rapid
northeastward or east-northeastward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs. There has been little change to the track
guidance or the official forecast which lies near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance envelope.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 49.1N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 51.1N 23.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 18/1800Z 53.2N 14.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/0600Z 54.8N 5.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

...ERNESTO HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.1N 29.8W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM N OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 49.1 North, longitude 29.8 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and a rapid
northeast or east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the post-tropical cyclone and its
remnants will move across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday
night and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical this evening, and some
gradual weakening is forecast to occur Saturday and Saturday night.
The post-tropical cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal zone
by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 172032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.1N 29.8W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 160SE 100SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 270SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.1N 29.8W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.3N 31.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.1N 23.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 160SE 140SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.2N 14.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 160SE 140SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 54.8N 5.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.1N 29.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 171442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto is somewhat surprisingly maintaining convection and
well-defined banding features over the northern and eastern
portions of its circulation despite being over SSTs of 20-21C. The
cloud tops have warmed within the past couple of hours perhaps an
indication that Ernesto is finally beginning to lose its
tropical characteristics. A blend of the latest satellite intensity
estimates still supports an initial wind speed of 40 kt.

Ernesto will be moving over progressively colder waters during the
next 12-24 hours and should become post-tropical later today or
tonight. Little change in strength is expected during the next day
or so while the post-tropical cyclone cyclone moves quickly across
the north Atlantic. The cyclone is forecast to weaken slightly as
it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone that is
expected to be located across the central portions of the United
Kingdom and Ireland Saturday night and early Sunday.

The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 26 kt. A slightly
faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected
during the next 36 hours as Ernesto remains embedded within the
mid-latitude westerly flow. The models continue to be in good
agreement, and the NHC track is close to the various consensus
aids.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 47.1N 32.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 49.3N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 18/1200Z 51.6N 18.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/0000Z 53.5N 10.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171441
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

...ERNESTO STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.1N 32.9W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 47.1 North, longitude 32.9 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and an
even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the
post-tropical cyclone or its remnants will move across Ireland and
the United Kingdom Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
While little change in strength is forecast during the next 36
hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight
and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 171441
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 32.9W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 240SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 32.9W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.4N 34.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 49.3N 27.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 160SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 51.6N 18.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 160SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 53.5N 10.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.1N 32.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170832
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto is maintaining its strength and status as a tropical storm
despite being over very cool 21 deg C waters. Deep convection
remains well organized in a curved band that wraps across the
eastern half of the circulation. The system is likely benefiting
from a moist and unstable airmass, which seems to be the reason why
Ernesto has held onto tropical storm status longer than expected.
The initial wind speed is again held at 40 kt, using a blend of the
latest satellite intensity estimates.

The convective organization is not expected to last much longer as
Ernesto is tracking over steadily colder waters and will also be
moving into an environment of higher shear. These hostile
environmental conditions should cause the system to lose its
tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours, when the
cyclone is forecast to be over SSTs of around 15 deg C. The
post-tropical low is expected to gradually decay before it merges
with a frontal zone near the United Kingdom in about 48 hours.

Ernesto is now well embedded in fast mid-latitude flow, and the
latest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 22 kt. An even
faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected until
the system merges with the frontal zone. The models remain tightly
clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 45.6N 36.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 50.4N 23.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/1800Z 52.5N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170832
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

...ERNESTO STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.6N 36.4W
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM NW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 45.6 North, longitude 36.4 West. Ernesto is
moving quickly toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and an
even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Ernesto
will approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next
36 hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by
tonight and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal
zone on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170832
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 36.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 240SE 180SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 36.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 37.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 50.4N 23.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 140SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 52.5N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.6N 36.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170237
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Convection associated with Ernesto has increased in both coverage
and intensity since the last advisory, with a large convective band
wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the system.
However, recent scatterometer data suggests that this has not yet
resulted in strengthening, with winds of 35-40 kt observed about
80 n mi southeast of the center. Based mainly on the scatterometer
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

While Ernesto is in a warm moist air mass to the east of a
mid-latitude cyclone near Newfoundland, the forecast track quickly
takes it over sea surface temperatures that will decrease to near
15C in 24 h. This should lead to the dissipation of the convection
and to Ernesto becoming a post-tropical cyclone. In 36-48 h, the
post-tropical cyclone should merge with a frontal zone, with the
resulting extratropical low dissipating between 48-72 h. Overall,
the new intensity forecast is nudged slightly downward from the
previous forecast, as the guidance no longer shows significant
strengthening. Given the increased convection, though, some
short-lived strengthening could occur in the next 12 h. In addition,
the current trends have led to the time of Ernesto becoming
post-tropical being moved back 12 h.

The initial motion is now 055/19. The cyclone should accelerate
further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the
mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical
model guidance remains tightly clustered and, as with the previous
advisory, little change was made to the track forecast. On the
forecast track, Ernesto or its remnants should approach Ireland and
the United Kingdom in about 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 44.1N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 46.1N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 48.9N 27.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/1200Z 51.2N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0000Z 53.2N 12.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.1N 38.9W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 44.1 North, longitude 38.9 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A faster
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Ernesto will approach
Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
While little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal
zone on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170236
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.1N 38.9W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.1N 38.9W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 40.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.1N 34.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 48.9N 27.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 51.2N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 53.2N 12.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.1N 38.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 162034
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that convective
banding has increased closer to the center of Ernesto today. The
system has also lost much of its outer cloud bands and is no longer
co-located with an upper-level low. On this basis, Ernesto is now
being classified as a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains
40 kt, which is based on recent satellite estimates and the earlier
ASCAT data. Although the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler
waters and become post-tropical very soon, the global models deepen
the system somewhat due to baroclinic processes. In addition, the
expected increase in the cyclone's forward speed is likely to result
in an increase in the wind speed. The new NHC intensity forecast
calls for slight strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, with
little overall change in intensity thereafter. The system is still
predicted to merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and
the United Kingdom late Saturday or Saturday night.

Ernesto continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving
045/16 kt. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving
northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude
westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance
remains tightly clustered and little change was made to the
previous NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 43.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 44.9N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 17/1800Z 47.7N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/0600Z 50.2N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1800Z 52.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 162031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE HEADING TOWARD COOLER
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 41.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 41.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) A faster
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Although Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Friday, some strengthening is possible during the
next 24 hours. Little change is expected late Friday through
Saturday before the post-tropical cyclone merges with a frontal
zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 162031
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 41.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 41.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 42.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 44.9N 37.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 47.7N 31.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 50.2N 23.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 52.0N 15.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 41.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 161452
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Convection developed closer to the center of Ernesto early this
morning, suggesting that the system was attempting to make the
transition to a tropical cyclone, but that area of convection has
weakened within the past couple of hours. Patches of deep
convection continue over the outer portion of the circulation, and
a very recent ASCAT overpass continues to show a rather large radius
of maximum winds, indicating that Ernesto remains a subtropical
cyclone. The ASCAT data showed a large area of 35-40 kt winds over
the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation, so the
initial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt.

Ernesto has likely reached its peak intensity since it will be
moving over much cooler SSTs later today, and the cyclone is
expected to lose its subtropical characteristics late tonight or
early Friday. The post-tropical cyclone should be able to maintain
its intensity due in part to its expected fast forward speed over
the North Atlantic. The global models indicate that the system will
merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United
Kingdom late Saturday.

Ernesto has turned northeastward and is beginning to accelerate,
and is now moving at around 14 kt. The cyclone should be fully
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies within the next 24
hours, and a significantly faster northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days.
The track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new
NHC official forecast is essentially an update of the previous
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 42.0N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 43.9N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 46.7N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/0000Z 49.5N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1200Z 52.0N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 43.2W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 43.2 West. The
storm is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) primarily to
the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 161451
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 43.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 43.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 43.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.9N 40.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.7N 35.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 49.5N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.0N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.0N 43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160832
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Ernesto has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The subtropical storm continues to produce patches of convection in
curved bands around the center. The circulation of the system is
becoming a little elongated from north to south, and dry air is
wrapping into the western portion of the system. The initial
wind speed is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with the satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The subtropical storm has a limited amount of time to strengthen as
it will remain over marginally warm waters and in a low wind
shear environment for only another 12 hours. After that time,
the cyclone is expected to cross over a sharp SST gradient and move
into an environment of higher shear. These conditions should cause
Ernesto to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours, when
the SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to be near 20 deg C. The
post-tropical system will likely maintain its intensity, due in part
to its fast forward speed, until it merges with a frontal zone near
the United Kingdom this weekend.

The storm continues to gradually speed up, and it is now moving
north-northeastward at 11 kt. A turn to the northeast with a
significant increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Friday as a pair of shortwave troughs approach the storm, causing
the system to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The
models remain in fairly good agreement, and this track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 40.8N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 42.4N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 45.0N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0600Z 50.6N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160832
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 44.1W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. The
storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near
Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160831
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 44.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 44.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 44.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.4N 41.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.0N 37.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 50.6N 23.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 140SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N 44.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160234
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Although inner-core convection has increased since the previous
advisory, outer banding features have become more fragmented and
the overall cloud pattern has become elongated north-to-south.
There are also no signs of any upper-level anticyclonic outflow,
an indication that Ernesto is still a subtropical cyclone. The
initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 2328Z
ASCAT pass that showed peak winds of 32 kt in the southeastern
quadrant, along with a radius of maximum winds of 70-80 nmi. This
intensity is consistent with a ST2.5/35 kt classification from TAFB.

The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. Ernesto
has rounded the subtropical ridge axis to its south, and the
cyclone should gradually get caught up in the mid-latitude
westerlies and turn northeastward during the next 12 hours or so.
A northeastward motion along with a steadily increasing forward
speed is expected through Friday. The track guidance is tightly
packed around the previous advisory track, so the new NHC forecast
track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory, and
lies near the track consensus models HCCA and TVCN. On the forecast
track, Ernesto is expected to approach Ireland as an extratropical
gale area on Saturday.

Ernesto is expected to remain over sea-surface temperatures (SST)
of 25 deg C or warmer for the next 18-24 hours, along with low
vertical shear conditions of less than 10 kt. These conditions
should allow for some slight strengthening during that short time
window. By 36 hours, Ernesto is forecast to be moving over SSTs of
20 deg C and colder and into a more stable airmass, resulting in a
degeneration of the inner-core convection. As a result, Ernesto is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, and become
an extratropical gale area after merging with a frontal zone near
Ireland and the United Kingdom in about 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 39.7N 45.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 43.7N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 46.3N 34.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 18/0000Z 49.0N 27.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0000Z 54.0N 12.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160233
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 45.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 45.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 45.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.7N 40.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.3N 34.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 49.0N 27.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 54.0N 12.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N 45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160204
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.7N 45.1W
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 45.1 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast
tonight and early Thursday, with that motion continuing through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near
Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 152035
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in
convection near and to the east of the center of Ernesto this
afternoon, but there has been little change in the overall
organization of the subtropical storm. The satellite intensity
estimate from TAFB remains an ST2.5, so the initial wind speed
remains 35 kt for this advisory. Ernesto is forecast to remain over
marginally warm SSTs and in a low wind shear environment during the
next 12-24 hours, and some modest strengthening is anticipated.
After that time, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs below 20C and
into an area of increasing vertical wind shear. As a result,
Ernesto is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36
hours, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United
Kingdom in 3 to 4 days.

Ernesto is moving northward or 005/8 kt. The cyclone should turn
north-northeastward tonight ahead of a mid-level trough that is
located off the coast of the eastern United States. Ernesto is
forecast to become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies by
late Thursday and it is expected to accelerate northeastward at
that time. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the
NHC forecast is again near the center of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 39.0N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 40.4N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 42.6N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 17/1800Z 48.0N 31.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 18/1800Z 53.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast tonight, and a faster northeastward
motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through
early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or
early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the
United Kingdom on Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 152034
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 45.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 45.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 45.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.4N 44.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.6N 42.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 48.0N 31.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.0N 15.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 45.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 151501 CCA
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Convection associated with the subtropical cyclone became better
organized after the release of the previous advisory, but
cloud tops have warmed recently with the convection becoming
somewhat fragmented. An Hebert-Poteat subtropical classification of
T2.5 from TAFB suggests that they system is producing gale-force
winds, and recent scatterometer data that passed over the far
eastern portion of the circulation revealed 30-kt winds. Since the
instrument missed the radius of maximum winds, it is assumed that
stronger winds exist over the eastern portion of the circulation,
and the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the system
a subtropical storm.

Ernesto has about 24 hours over marginally warm SSTs and in a low-
shear environment in which to strengthen. After that time, the
cyclone will be moving over much colder water which should cause it
to become post-tropical within 48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone
is forecast to merge with a frontal zone associated with a larger
extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving northward at about 6 kt. A mid-level trough
that is moving off the east coast of the United States should cause
Ernesto to turn north-northeastward later today, and the cyclone is
forecast to accelerate northeastward by late Thursday as it becomes
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model
guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new NHC track
forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 38.1N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 39.3N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 43.6N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 46.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 18/1200Z 52.3N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 151452
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Convection associated with the subtropical cyclone became better
organized after the release of the previous advisory, but
cloud tops have warmed recently with the convection becoming
somewhat fragmented. An Hebert-Potent subtropical classification of
T2.5 from TAFB suggests that they system is producing gale-force
winds, and recent scatterometer data that passed over the far
eastern portion of the circulation revealed 30-kt winds. Since the
instrument missed the radius of maximum winds, it is assumed that
stronger winds exist over the eastern portion of the circulation,
and the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the system
a subtropical storm.

Ernesto has about 24 hours over marginally warm SSTs and in a low-
shear environment in which to strengthen. After that time, the
cyclone will be moving over much colder water which should cause it
to become post-tropical within 48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone
is forecast to merge with a frontal zone associated with a larger
extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving northward at about 6 kt. A mid-level trough
that is moving off the east coast of the United States should cause
Ernesto to turn north-northeastward later today, and the cyclone is
forecast to accelerate northeastward by late Thursday as it becomes
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model
guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new NHC track
forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 38.1N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 39.3N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 43.6N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 46.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 18/1200Z 52.3N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 46.0W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 46.0 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today, and a faster northeastward
motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through
early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
during the next 24 hours. The system is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 151451
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 45.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 45.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.6N 40.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.4N 35.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.3N 21.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 46.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150839
TCDAT5

Subtropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

The low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been
monitoring over the central Atlantic Ocean has developed
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center.
Since the system has a large radius of maximum wind and is
co-located with an upper-level low, it is being classified as a
subtropical depression. The initial intensity is set to a possibly
conservative 30 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. This value
is slightly below the latest satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.
It is interesting to note that so far this hurricane season, four of
the five systems have been a subtropical cyclone at some point in
their lifetimes.

Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours or so while
the system remains over warm SSTs and in fairly low wind shear
conditions. After that time, sharply colder waters, drier air, and
a significant increase in wind shear should cause extratropical
transition in about 48 hours, or sooner, and a gradual weakening.
The models show the post-tropical system merging with a frontal zone
in 3 to 4 days.

The subtropical depression is moving slowly northward at about 4
kt. A north to north-northeastward motion is expected today as the
system moves on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. A mid-
to upper-level trough currently over the northeastern U.S. is
anticipated to approach the cyclone, and that feature should cause
the system to accelerate northeastward on Thursday and Friday.
The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 37.6N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 38.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 40.2N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 42.5N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z 51.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 45.6W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1630 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Five
was located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 45.6 West. The
subtropical depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7
km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward
speed is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is forecast
to occur on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the
subtropical depression is expected to become a subtropical storm
later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150836
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 45.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 45.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 45.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.5N 45.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.2N 44.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.5N 41.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI