Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ONE-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 161500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180916140649
2018091612 01S ONE 007 01 245 11 SATL 040
T000 119S 0658E 035 R034 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 123S 0636E 035 R034 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 122S 0614E 035 R034 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 115S 0588E 035 R034 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 103S 0557E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 65.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 65.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.3S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180916140649
2018091612 01S ONE 007 01 245 11 SATL 040
T000 119S 0658E 035 R034 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 123S 0636E 035 R034 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 122S 0614E 035 R034 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 115S 0588E 035 R034 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 103S 0557E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 65.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 65.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.3S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.2S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.3S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
0118091206 61S 760E 15
0118091300 67S 759E 20
0118091306 72S 757E 20
0118091312 76S 755E 20
0118091318 82S 750E 25
0118091400 88S 745E 25
0118091406 92S 741E 30
0118091412 96S 735E 30
0118091418 99S 727E 30
0118091500 102S 718E 40
0118091506 104S 710E 40
0118091512 106S 701E 45
0118091518 106S 689E 40
0118091600 110S 680E 40
0118091606 114S 668E 35
0118091612 119S 658E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180916013717
2018091600 01S ONE 005 01 245 10 SATL 050
T000 110S 0680E 040 R034 020 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 116S 0657E 035 R034 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 120S 0635E 035 R034 000 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T036 118S 0613E 035 R034 000 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 111S 0588E 035 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 084S 0522E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 056S 0463E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.6S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.0S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.8S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.1S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 8.4S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 5.6S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
//
0118091206 61S 760E 15
0118091300 67S 759E 20
0118091306 72S 757E 20
0118091312 76S 755E 20
0118091318 82S 750E 25
0118091400 88S 745E 25
0118091406 92S 741E 30
0118091412 96S 735E 30
0118091418 99S 727E 30
0118091500 102S 718E 40
0118091506 104S 710E 40
0118091512 106S 701E 45
0118091518 106S 689E 40
0118091600 110S 680E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 160300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180916013717
2018091600 01S ONE 005 01 245 10 SATL 050
T000 110S 0680E 040 R034 020 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 116S 0657E 035 R034 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 120S 0635E 035 R034 000 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T036 118S 0613E 035 R034 000 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 111S 0588E 035 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 084S 0522E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 056S 0463E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.6S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 151500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180915132929
2018091512 01S ONE 003 01 250 09 SATL 025
T000 107S 0701E 045 R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 111S 0679E 045 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 118S 0656E 040 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 123S 0635E 040 R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 121S 0613E 035 R034 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 103S 0557E 035 R034 020 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T096 073S 0501E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180915132929
2018091512 01S ONE 003 01 250 09 SATL 025
T000 107S 0701E 045 R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 111S 0679E 045 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 118S 0656E 040 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 123S 0635E 040 R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 121S 0613E 035 R034 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 103S 0557E 035 R034 020 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T096 073S 0501E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.8S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.3S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.1S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.3S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z
AND 161500Z.//
0118091206 61S 760E 15
0118091300 67S 759E 20
0118091306 72S 757E 20
0118091312 76S 755E 20
0118091318 82S 750E 25
0118091400 88S 745E 25
0118091406 92S 741E 30
0118091412 96S 735E 30
0118091418 99S 727E 30
0118091500 102S 718E 40
0118091506 104S 710E 40
0118091512 107S 701E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 150900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180915080110
2018091506 01S ONE 002 01 255 08 SATL 030
T000 104S 0710E 040 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 109S 0691E 040 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 115S 0668E 040 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 121S 0645E 035 R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 122S 0624E 035 R034 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 109S 0573E 035 R034 020 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T096 076S 0508E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 10.4S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180915080110
2018091506 01S ONE 002 01 255 08 SATL 030
T000 104S 0710E 040 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 109S 0691E 040 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 115S 0668E 040 R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 121S 0645E 035 R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 122S 0624E 035 R034 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 109S 0573E 035 R034 020 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T096 076S 0508E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 10.4S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.1S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.9S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.6S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 70.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
0118091206 61S 760E 15
0118091300 67S 759E 20
0118091306 72S 757E 20
0118091312 76S 755E 20
0118091318 82S 750E 25
0118091400 88S 745E 25
0118091406 92S 741E 30
0118091412 96S 735E 30
0118091418 99S 727E 30
0118091500 102S 718E 40
0118091506 104S 710E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 150300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180915014555
2018091500 01S ONE 001 01 260 07 SATL 045
T000 099S 0721E 035 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 103S 0703E 040 R034 005 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 108S 0682E 040 R034 005 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 115S 0659E 035 R034 005 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 119S 0638E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 111S 0589E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 079S 0530E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.3S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180915014555
2018091500 01S ONE 001 01 260 07 SATL 045
T000 099S 0721E 035 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 103S 0703E 040 R034 005 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 108S 0682E 040 R034 005 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 115S 0659E 035 R034 005 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 119S 0638E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 111S 0589E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 079S 0530E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.3S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.8S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.5S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.9S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.1S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.9S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 71.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.
//
0118091206 61S 760E 15
0118091300 67S 759E 20
0118091306 72S 757E 20
0118091312 76S 755E 20
0118091318 82S 750E 25
0118091400 88S 745E 25
0118091406 92S 741E 30
0118091412 96S 735E 30
0118091418 98S 728E 30
0118091500 99S 721E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.9S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.9S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.8S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.7S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 8.0S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 66.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. A 160432Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MARGINAL
DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON A
160434Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25-29 AND 30-34 KT WIND BARBS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, AND WEAKER WINDS TO THE
NORTH. THIS INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY UNDER PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) BUT AGREES WITH THE FMEE
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 01S HAS
A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
HIGH, 25-30 KTS, SHEARING CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LLCC. COOLER (24-
25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND THE HIGHER VWS ARE
LIMITING DEVELOPMENT AND CONTRIBUTED TO THE 5 KT WEAKENING OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. 01S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS
SHOW THAT 01S WILL TURN DUE WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24, THEN TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND TRACK TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COAST AS ANOTHER
STR BUILDS IN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, WHILE MAINTAINING A MARGINAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS DUE TO THE COOL SSTS AND INCREASING VWS. 01S
WILL DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 48 UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 210 NM SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU
72, WITH ECMWF THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.6S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.0S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.6S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.0S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.8S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.1S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 8.4S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 5.6S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. A 152105Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
SOLID MASS OF CONVECTION WITH NO SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND A WARM FEATURE IN THE 152105Z AMSR-2
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS,
SLIGHTLY UNDER PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 01S HAS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS). COOLER (24-25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. 01S IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS SHOW THAT 01S WILL TURN
DUE WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24, THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND
TRACK TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COAST AS ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN TO ITS
SOUTHWEST, WHILE MAINTAINING A MARGINAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS DUE
TO THE COOL SSTS. 01S WILL DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 72. THERE
IS A 210 NM SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 72, WITH ECMWF
THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REMARKS SECTION.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.6S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.0S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.8S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.1S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 8.4S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 5.6S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
152105Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SOLID MASS OF
CONVECTION WITH NO SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND
A WARM FEATURE IN THE 152105Z AMSR-2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS, SLIGHTLY UNDER PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT 01S HAS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT NO EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). COOLER (24-25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. 01S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS SHOW THAT 01S WILL TURN DUE WESTWARD
AROUND TAU 24, THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND TRACK TOWARDS THE
AFRICAN COAST AS ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, WHILE
MAINTAINING A MARGINAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS DUE TO THE COOL SSTS. 01S
WILL DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS A 210 NM SPREAD
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 72, WITH ECMWF THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER.
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 151500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.8S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.8S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.3S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.1S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.3S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 151128Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL AT 26 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UP TO TAU 36,
AFTERWARD A SECONDARY STR EXTENDING FROM MOZAMBIQUE WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. COOLING SSTS AND THE
INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TC 01S, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z,
160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 150900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 10.4S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 10.4S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.1S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.9S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.6S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 70.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 150453Z ASCAT PASS. TC 01S IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
COMPACT SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER, ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY 25 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND DURING THE INITIAL
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96.
TC 01S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 36. AROUND TAU 48, A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE AND TURN TC 01S TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL PREDICTS A TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING. THE COMPACT CIRCULATION IS
VULNERABLE TO ANY CHANGE IN ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT EFFECT
THE STEERING LEVEL. THUS, THE OUTLIER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSIDERED IMPLAUSIBLE IN THIS CASE. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z,
152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 150300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.3S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.8S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.3S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.8S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.5S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.9S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.1S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.9S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 71.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A
COMBINATION OF THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 142250Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A LOW
BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS). TC 01S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL AT 26 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER 01S WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM AND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, SST CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND 35 KTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY HIGH, WITH A SPREAD OF OVER 300 NM
BY TAU 72, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 140900).//
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