Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NINETEEN-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-09-20 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 201604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.9N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2018 0 9.9N 48.9W 1013 21
0000UTC 21.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 110.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2018 0 28.4N 110.1W 1005 19
0000UTC 21.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.3N 66.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2018 0 34.3N 66.4W 1006 32
0000UTC 21.09.2018 12 33.9N 63.9W 1008 29
1200UTC 21.09.2018 24 31.4N 64.4W 1011 29
0000UTC 22.09.2018 36 29.7N 64.2W 1011 28
1200UTC 22.09.2018 48 28.9N 64.9W 1012 25
0000UTC 23.09.2018 60 28.1N 66.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 23.09.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 33.9N 43.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2018 48 33.9N 43.6W 1003 32
0000UTC 23.09.2018 60 34.0N 44.8W 999 42
1200UTC 23.09.2018 72 33.9N 45.7W 996 40
0000UTC 24.09.2018 84 33.2N 46.9W 999 35
1200UTC 24.09.2018 96 33.6N 47.3W 1003 32
0000UTC 25.09.2018 108 32.7N 46.4W 1004 31
1200UTC 25.09.2018 120 32.7N 45.0W 1000 31
0000UTC 26.09.2018 132 32.0N 42.9W 996 39
1200UTC 26.09.2018 144 32.8N 39.6W 987 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 27.2N 168.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2018 84 27.0N 169.4W 1002 28
1200UTC 24.09.2018 96 25.4N 170.6W 1003 22
0000UTC 25.09.2018 108 24.6N 169.5W 1003 22
1200UTC 25.09.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.0N 109.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2018 96 14.0N 109.7W 1005 22
0000UTC 25.09.2018 108 14.7N 112.1W 1003 23
1200UTC 25.09.2018 120 15.5N 114.4W 1004 26
0000UTC 26.09.2018 132 16.4N 116.3W 1003 30
1200UTC 26.09.2018 144 17.0N 117.7W 1004 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.5N 39.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2018 108 11.9N 41.3W 1007 36
1200UTC 25.09.2018 120 12.7N 44.6W 1004 41
0000UTC 26.09.2018 132 13.6N 46.8W 1001 47
1200UTC 26.09.2018 144 14.5N 48.8W 995 53


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201604

2018-09-20 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 201604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.9N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2018 9.9N 48.9W WEAK
00UTC 21.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 110.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2018 28.4N 110.1W WEAK
00UTC 21.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.3N 66.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2018 34.3N 66.4W WEAK
00UTC 21.09.2018 33.9N 63.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2018 31.4N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2018 29.7N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2018 28.9N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2018 28.1N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 33.9N 43.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2018 33.9N 43.6W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2018 34.0N 44.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2018 33.9N 45.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2018 33.2N 46.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2018 33.6N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2018 32.7N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 32.7N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 32.0N 42.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2018 32.8N 39.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 27.2N 168.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2018 27.0N 169.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2018 25.4N 170.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2018 24.6N 169.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.0N 109.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2018 14.0N 109.7W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2018 14.7N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 15.5N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 16.4N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2018 17.0N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.5N 39.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2018 11.9N 41.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2018 12.7N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 13.6N 46.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2018 14.5N 48.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201604

2018-09-20 09:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 200832 RRA
TCDEP4

REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
300 AM MDT THU SEP 20 2018

A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 0400 AND 0500 UTC INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAD MOVED INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SONORA, WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 25 KT STILL OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON A MORE
LINEAR PATTERN AS IT HAS PUSHED FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO, AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN. AS SUCH, THE DEPRESSION
IS DEEMED TO HAVE DISSIPATED, AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS
SYSTEM. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE FORECAST IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF SONORA
AND NORTHERN SINALOA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.SHTML. FOR INFORMATION
ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, PLEASE CONSULT

2018-09-20 09:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 200832
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Nineteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018

A pair of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the
center of the depression had moved inland over the Mexican state of
Sonora, with winds as high as 25 kt still occurring over the Gulf of
California. The associated deep convection has taken on a more
linear pattern as it has pushed farther inland across northwestern
Mexico, and it is unlikely that the system still has a closed
surface circulation over the rough terrain. As such, the depression
is deemed to have dissipated, and this is the last advisory on this
system. Winds over the Gulf of California should quickly diminish
during the next 6-12 hours.

Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will
continue to pose a heavy rainfall and flooding threat over the next
couple of days. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated
amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora
and northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rains will also lead to a
heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States
today and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system. For additional information please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. For information
on the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding, please consult
statements from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 28.1N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-20 09:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 200831 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
300 AM MDT THU SEP 20 2018

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA...
....HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 110.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E WERE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, MAINLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE

2018-09-20 09:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 200831
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Nineteen-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 110.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United
States monitor the progress of the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E for the continued threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Nineteen-E were located
near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 110.0 West. The remnants are
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Moisture
associated with the remnants should move northeastward across
northwestern Mexico and into the southwestern and south-central
United States over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly over the Gulf of California.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of the depression are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of
Sonora and northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in western Chihuahua.
Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Sonora and
northern Sinaloa. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will also
lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding
in the southwestern United States today, and in the southern Plains
beginning on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-20 09:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 200831
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 110.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 110.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 110.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

..
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-20 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 200402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.3N 49.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2018 0 8.3N 49.2W 1011 18
1200UTC 20.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 111.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2018 0 27.0N 111.3W 1001 30
1200UTC 20.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 35.3N 68.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2018 12 34.8N 66.6W 1006 33
0000UTC 21.09.2018 24 33.5N 64.0W 1008 30
1200UTC 21.09.2018 36 32.2N 63.1W 1011 30
0000UTC 22.09.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 33.9N 43.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2018 60 33.9N 43.8W 1004 31
0000UTC 23.09.2018 72 34.2N 45.4W 1002 37
1200UTC 23.09.2018 84 31.9N 46.8W 997 40
0000UTC 24.09.2018 96 32.7N 48.0W 1000 34
1200UTC 24.09.2018 108 32.8N 48.9W 1004 30
0000UTC 25.09.2018 120 33.2N 49.0W 1006 27
1200UTC 25.09.2018 132 32.5N 48.9W 1006 30
0000UTC 26.09.2018 144 30.9N 47.1W 1004 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.9N 168.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2018 96 28.4N 168.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 24.09.2018 108 28.8N 169.5W 1002 26
0000UTC 25.09.2018 120 28.7N 168.1W 1000 28
1200UTC 25.09.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200401

2018-09-20 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 200401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.3N 49.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2018 8.3N 49.2W WEAK
12UTC 20.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 111.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2018 27.0N 111.3W WEAK
12UTC 20.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 35.3N 68.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2018 34.8N 66.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2018 33.5N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2018 32.2N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 33.9N 43.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2018 33.9N 43.8W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2018 34.2N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2018 31.9N 46.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2018 32.7N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2018 32.8N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2018 33.2N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 32.5N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 30.9N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.9N 168.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2018 28.4N 168.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2018 28.8N 169.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2018 28.7N 168.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200401

2018-09-20 03:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 200240
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
900 PM MDT WED SEP 19 2018

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO, JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAYMAS. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT SINCE THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
NOT AS COLD AS THEY WERE EARLIER TODAY WHEN AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED
PEAK WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE, AND MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO VERY SOON, ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ON THURSDAY.

THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES ARE FORECAST IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF SONORA AND
NORTHERN SINALOA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION, AND
ITS REMNANTS, WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND A HEIGHTENED
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY, AND IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-20 03:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 200240 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
900 PM MDT WED SEP 19 2018

...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHERE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE...
....HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 110.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E AND
ITS REMNANTS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH
(11 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES) IS BASED ON
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF SONORA AND

2018-09-20 03:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 200240
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHERE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 110.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United
States monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E and
its remnants.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 110.5
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this motion should take the depression inland over
northwestern Mexico overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to dissipate on Thursday.

The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on
nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Sonora and
northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in Baja California Sur and
western Chihuahua. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are
possible in Sonora and northern Sinaloa. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants
will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of
flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and
Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-20 03:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 200239
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-19 21:33

WTPZ44 KNHC 192051 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM MDT WED SEP 19 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF STRONG
CONVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS EDGED A LITTLE
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA. A TIMELY 1650Z ASCAT SHOWED
SOME 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN THE BAND OF COLDER CONVECTIVE TOPS,
AND SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30
KT BASED ON THIS INFORMATION.

THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE DEPRESSION WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND A LANDFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NOT AFFORD MUCH
TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP DESPITE BEING OVER VERY WARM SSTS AND
WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE DEPRESSION WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SIERRA-MADRE OCCIDENTAL.

THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH 5-10
INCH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES LEADING TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
DEPRESSION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AND EVENTUALLY
ITS REMNANTS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND A HEIGHTENED
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH

2018-09-19 21:33

WTPZ44 KNHC 192051
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Satellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong
convection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the
last few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little
farther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed
some 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops,
and since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better
defined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30
kt based on this information.

The forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory.
The depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall
is expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the
system comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough
moving into the western United States. This will not afford much
time for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and
within a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly
dissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of
the Sierra-Madre Occidental.

The main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10
inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the
depression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually
its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened
risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through
Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake

2018-09-19 21:33

WTPZ34 KNHC 192047 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM MDT WED SEP 19 2018

...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 111.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM N OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15
KM/H). ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING WITH DISSIPATION
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, HOWEVER STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST
THEREAFTER WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

2018-09-19 21:33

WTPZ34 KNHC 192047
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 111.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM N OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 111.2
West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15
km/h). On this forecast track, the depression is expected to move
inland over northwestern Mexico late this evening with dissipation
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before the system moves inland
over northwestern Mexico, however steady weakening is forecast
thereafter with dissipation expected on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Sonora and
northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in Baja California and western
Chihuahua. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in
Sonora and northern Sinaloa. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants
will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of
flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through
Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake

2018-09-19 21:33

WTPZ24 KNHC 192046
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 111.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 111.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 111.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

..
FORECASTER ORRISON/BLAKE

2018-09-19 15:33

WTPZ44 KNHC 191455 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM MDT WED SEP 19 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 3.7 MB AT LORETO
JUST WEST OF ITS CENTER AT 1300 UTC. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER, SUGGESTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
IS BEING DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 25-KT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM, WITH A SLIGHT RESTRICTION TO THE OUTFLOW ON ITS WESTERN
SIDE, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY RECENT SHIPS OUTPUT. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM HAS ONLY 12 HOURS OR LESS OVER WATER, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE DEPRESSION NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO TONIGHT, WHICH IS WELL
ADVERTISED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIME FRAME DUE TO STEEP TERRAIN.

THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL,
WITH 5-10 INCH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES
LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

2018-09-19 15:33

WTPZ44 KNHC 191455
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Satellite images show that an area of low pressure has developed
over the Gulf of California overnight within an inverted trough.
This is also supported by 24-hour pressure falls of 3.7 mb at Loreto
just west of its center at 1300 UTC. Microwave imagery shows
curved convective banding features to the east and north of the
center, suggesting organized convection. Therefore the system
is being declared a tropical depression with 25-kt maximum sustained
winds. Infrared imagery shows minimal vertical wind shear over the
system, with a slight restriction to the outflow on its western
side, which is confirmed by recent SHIPS output. However, the
system has only 12 hours or less over water, and it is expected to
move inland without significant strengthening.

An upper-level trough moving into the western United States is
expected to steer the depression north or north-northeast across the
Gulf of California into northwest Mexico tonight, which is well
advertised by the track guidance. The depression is expected to
dissipate in the 24-36 hour time frame due to steep terrain.

The main impact with the system is expected to be heavy rainfall,
with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches
leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the
track of the depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake

2018-09-19 15:33

WTPZ34 KNHC 191453 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM MDT WED SEP 19 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
....HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 110.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.9
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH (20
KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH A SIMILAR FORWARD MOTION UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND OVER MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, THEN STEADY WEAKENING IS

2018-09-19 15:33

WTPZ34 KNHC 191453
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 110.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 110.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this motion is expected to become more north-northeast
tonight with a similar forward motion until the system dissipates on
Thursday. On the forecast track the depression is forecast to move
inland over northwestern Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant strengthening is expected before the system moves
inland over mainland northwestern Mexico, then steady weakening is
forecast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this
disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of
flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake

2018-09-19 15:33

WTPZ24 KNHC 191452
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 110.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

..
FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE