Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LIUA-18
in Solomon Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 280900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180928065011
2018092806 02P LIUA 007 01 295 04 SATL 030
T000 120S 1611E 035 R034 040 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 122S 1599E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.2S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 160.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180928065011
2018092806 02P LIUA 007 01 295 04 SATL 030
T000 120S 1611E 035 R034 040 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 122S 1599E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.2S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 160.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 9 FEET.
//
0218092412 70S1539E 25
0218092418 78S1553E 25
0218092500 80S1557E 25
0218092506 83S1563E 25
0218092512 86S1570E 25
0218092518 89S1576E 25
0218092600 92S1584E 30
0218092606 97S1589E 30
0218092612 102S1600E 30
0218092618 107S1611E 35
0218092700 111S1622E 35
0218092706 118S1627E 35
0218092712 121S1626E 35
0218092718 122S1621E 40
0218092800 122S1615E 40
0218092806 120S1611E 35


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 280900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.2S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 160.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 80NM
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.2S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 160.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 80NM
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP
AND SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 280531Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND AND THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PREVENTING IMPROVED OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) AND FORECAST TO INCREASE DUE LARGELY TO THE
OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 30W TO THE NORTH. LIUA IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED
AFTER TAU 6 AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT
DISSIPATES DUE TO INCREASING VWS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 9 FEET.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 280300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180928020526
2018092800 02P LIUA 006 01 270 06 SATL 025
T000 122S 1615E 040 R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 126S 1606E 035 R034 030 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 129S 1591E 035 R034 000 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 130S 1577E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.6S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180928020526
2018092800 02P LIUA 006 01 270 06 SATL 025
T000 122S 1615E 040 R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 126S 1606E 035 R034 030 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 129S 1591E 035 R034 000 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 130S 1577E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.6S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.9S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.0S 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 161.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 514 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.
//
0218092412 70S1539E 25
0218092418 78S1553E 25
0218092500 80S1557E 25
0218092506 83S1563E 25
0218092512 86S1570E 25
0218092518 89S1576E 25
0218092600 92S1584E 30
0218092606 97S1589E 30
0218092612 102S1600E 30
0218092618 107S1611E 35
0218092700 111S1622E 35
0218092706 118S1627E 35
0218092712 121S1626E 35
0218092718 122S1621E 40
0218092800 122S1615E 40


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 280300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.6S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.9S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.6S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.9S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.0S 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 161.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 514 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISIBLE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WANING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX OF
THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 AND THE
MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS, HOWEVER DATA-T
VALUES ARE FALLING AND A WEAKENING TREND HAS LIKELY BEGUN. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) AND EXPECTED
TO INCREASE DUE LARGELY TO THE OUTFLOW OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONE 30W TO THE NORTH. THIS OUTFLOW IS DIRECTLY OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF 02P
IS IMPINGING OUTFLOW, WHICH IS CONSTRAINED TO A POLEWARD CHANNEL
ONLY. LIUA IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED AFTER TAU 24, AND THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING VWS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 281500Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 272100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180927193947
2018092718 02P LIUA 005 01 220 06 SATL 060
T000 126S 1622E 040 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 131S 1613E 040 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 134S 1598E 035 R034 010 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 134S 1583E 035 R034 005 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 131S 1564E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 162.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 162.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.1S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 272100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 162.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 162.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.1S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.4S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180927193947
2018092718 02P LIUA 005 01 220 06 SATL 060
T000 126S 1622E 040 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 131S 1613E 040 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 134S 1598E 035 R034 010 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 134S 1583E 035 R034 005 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 131S 1564E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 162.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 162.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.1S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.4S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.4S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 13.1S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
//
0218092412 70S1539E 25
0218092418 78S1553E 25
0218092500 80S1557E 25
0218092506 83S1563E 25
0218092512 86S1570E 25
0218092518 89S1576E 25
0218092600 92S1584E 30
0218092606 97S1589E 30
0218092612 102S1600E 30
0218092618 107S1611E 35
0218092700 111S1622E 35
0218092706 118S1627E 35
0218092712 121S1626E 35
0218092718 126S1622E 40


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 162.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 162.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.1S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.4S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.4S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 13.1S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BALL OF FLARING CONVECTION CONTINUING TO OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 02P. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON INFLOW
UNDER THE CONVECTION IN THE EIR LOOP AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 271636Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 40 KTS, INCREASED 5
KTS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, MORE IN LINE WITH MULTIAGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), AND BELOW A 270932Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KTS. A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM 40 NM AWAY
RECORDED 38 KT WINDS AND PRESSURE OF 990 MB, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
WINDS OF 43 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 02P IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS), WHICH
IS HINDERING ITS ABILITY TO DEVELOP LONG-TERM, BUT THE LLCC IS
STILL TUCKED UNDER THE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
02P IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND ABOVE AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO
ITS SOUTH. THE STR IS BEGINNING TO BUILD WESTWARD AND WILL ALLOW TC
02P TO ALSO TRACK WESTWARD AND ENCOUNTER DRY AIR AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING STARTED AT TAU
24, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT
TC 02P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN WESTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE RECURVE HAS
VERIFIED, WITH 88 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 36. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 271500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 12.1S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.6S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 12.1S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.6S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.1S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.9S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 162.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 02P. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 271031Z
89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS STILL
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
HEDGED BELOW A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.0
(45 KNOTS). TC 02P HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN
STRUCTURE SINCE THE 260301Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A SWATH
OF 35 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 02P IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS STRONG BUT THERE IS NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 02P
IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR IS BEGINNING TO BUILD WESTWARD AND
WILL ALLOW TC 02P TO ALSO TRACK WESTWARD AND ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02P TO BEGIN DISSIPATING BY
TAU 36 AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT
TC 02P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN WESTWARD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 270900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180927080735
2018092706 02P LIUA 003 01 145 09 SATL 050
T000 118S 1627E 035 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 128S 1627E 040 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 132S 1617E 035 R034 000 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 134S 1604E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 133S 1586E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.8S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180927080735
2018092706 02P LIUA 003 01 145 09 SATL 050
T000 118S 1627E 035 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 128S 1627E 040 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 132S 1617E 035 R034 000 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 134S 1604E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 133S 1586E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.8S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.2S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.3S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 162.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
480 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
0218092412 70S1539E 25
0218092418 78S1553E 25
0218092500 80S1557E 25
0218092506 83S1563E 25
0218092512 86S1570E 25
0218092518 89S1576E 25
0218092600 92S1584E 30
0218092606 97S1589E 30
0218092612 102S1600E 30
0218092618 107S1611E 35
0218092700 111S1622E 35
0218092706 118S1627E 35


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 270900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.8S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.2S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.8S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.2S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.3S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 162.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION IS NOW OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 270526ZZ 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BASED ON THE 262301Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 02P IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG BUT THERE IS NO
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN
28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 02P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. AFTER
TAU 12, TC 02P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD AND ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02P TO BEGIN DISSIPATING BY
TAU 36 AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODELS AGREE THAT TC 02P
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN TURN WESTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 270300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180927012843
2018092700 02P LIUA 002 01 125 08 SATL 020
T000 112S 1623E 035 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 120S 1627E 040 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 127S 1622E 040 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 132S 1605E 035 R034 000 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 132S 1591E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.0S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180927012843
2018092700 02P LIUA 002 01 125 08 SATL 020
T000 112S 1623E 035 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 120S 1627E 040 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 127S 1622E 040 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 132S 1605E 035 R034 000 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 132S 1591E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.0S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.7S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.2S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.2S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 162.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//
0218092412 70S1539E 25
0218092418 78S1553E 25
0218092500 80S1557E 25
0218092506 83S1563E 25
0218092512 86S1570E 25
0218092518 89S1576E 25
0218092600 92S1584E 30
0218092606 97S1589E 30
0218092612 102S1600E 30
0218092618 107S1616E 35
0218092700 112S1623E 35


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 270300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.0S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.7S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.0S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.7S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.2S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.2S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 162.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENETER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BELOW MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), AS SHEAR IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING
THE SYSTEM AND A 262301Z ASCAT PASS WITH SIGNIFICANT LAND AND RAIN-
FLAGGED CONTAMINATION SHOWED ONLY ISOLATED 35 KT WIND BARBS, WITH
POCKETS OF 30 KT WIND BARBS AND MOSTLY 25 KT WIND BARBS SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02P IS LOCATED IN AN
UNFAVORABLE AREA OF INCREASING (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), ALTHOUGH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28-30
CELSIUS. TC 02P HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC 02P IS FORECAST TO
TURN IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AS THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS IN,
THEN TRACK WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR BUILDS
IN TO ITS SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE, WITH VWS INCREASING AND SSTS COOLING ALONG THE TRACK
OF 02P. TC 02P IS FORECAST TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KTS BY TAU
12, BUT THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS MOVING
WESTWARD INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DISSIPATING OVER
WATER BY TAU 48. THE VWS WILL CAUSE AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM. ALL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH THEY VARY IN THE POINT OF
RECURVATURE, LEADING TO A 165 NM MODEL SPREAD BY TAU 36. THEREFORE,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE
INITIAL TAUS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN LATER TAUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 262100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180926201614
2018092618 02P LIUA 001 01 110 17 SATL 060
T000 107S 1616E 035 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 112S 1623E 040 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 123S 1620E 040 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 127S 1610E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 130S 1595E 035 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 133S 1553E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 10.7S 161.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 161.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 11.2S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 180926201614
2018092618 02P LIUA 001 01 110 17 SATL 060
T000 107S 1616E 035 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 112S 1623E 040 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 123S 1620E 040 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 127S 1610E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 130S 1595E 035 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 133S 1553E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 10.7S 161.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 161.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 11.2S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.3S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.7S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.0S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 13.3S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LIUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 573 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.
//
0218092412 70S1539E 25
0218092418 78S1553E 25
0218092500 80S1557E 25
0218092506 83S1563E 25
0218092512 86S1570E 25
0218092518 89S1576E 25
0218092600 92S1584E 30
0218092606 97S1589E 30
0218092612 102S1600E 30
0218092618 107S1616E 35