Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for WALAKA-18
in United States Minor Outlying Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 061558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 87.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 13.1N 87.8W 1008 24
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 86.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N 55.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 37.5N 55.8W 987 48
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 37.6N 53.9W 988 48
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 36.4N 51.6W 990 47
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 35.9N 49.5W 992 45
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 35.4N 48.5W 992 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 33.9N 45.9W 990 53
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 30.6N 44.3W 986 53
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 28.0N 43.4W 974 61
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 26.2N 43.1W 970 67
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 25.8N 42.4W 966 68
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 26.7N 41.3W 963 71
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 28.4N 38.9W 953 81
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 29.9N 35.6W 955 77

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 123.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 14.7N 123.9W 922 98
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 14.4N 125.1W 923 93
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 14.4N 126.3W 924 90
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 14.8N 127.3W 929 90
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 15.5N 127.7W 935 82
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 16.2N 127.7W 946 73
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 17.0N 126.8W 945 78
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 18.0N 125.4W 951 70
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 19.2N 123.0W 950 72
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 21.1N 120.0W 950 72
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 23.6N 117.0W 962 67
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 26.8N 113.5W 968 60
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 30.7N 109.9W 991 31

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 164.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 35.0N 164.5W 993 43
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 41.4N 160.7W 996 44
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 48.1N 154.5W 1006 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.3N 40.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 14.3N 40.7W 1010 27
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 15.3N 41.5W 1010 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061558


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 061558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 87.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 13.1N 87.8W WEAK
00UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 86.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 17.2N 86.3W WEAK
00UTC 07.10.2018 17.4N 85.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 19.0N 86.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 20.0N 85.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 20.8N 85.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 22.0N 85.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 23.7N 85.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 25.4N 86.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 27.4N 85.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 29.5N 84.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 31.5N 82.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 33.5N 79.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 35.3N 74.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N 55.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 37.5N 55.8W MODERATE
00UTC 07.10.2018 37.6N 53.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.4N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 35.9N 49.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 35.4N 48.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.9N 45.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 30.6N 44.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 28.0N 43.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 26.2N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 25.8N 42.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 26.7N 41.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 28.4N 38.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 29.9N 35.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 123.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 14.7N 123.9W INTENSE
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.4N 125.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.4N 126.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 14.8N 127.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 15.5N 127.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 16.2N 127.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 17.0N 126.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 18.0N 125.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 19.2N 123.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 21.1N 120.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 23.6N 117.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 26.8N 113.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 30.7N 109.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 164.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 35.0N 164.5W MODERATE
00UTC 07.10.2018 41.4N 160.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 48.1N 154.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.3N 40.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2018 14.3N 40.7W WEAK
12UTC 12.10.2018 15.3N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061558


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 061506 RRA
TCDCP1


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST SAT OCT 06 2018

WALAKA'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS COMPLETELY
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN
90 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. ASCAT PASSES OVER WALAKA AT
0735Z AND 0838Z SHOWED THE SYSTEM WAS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, WITH
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 45 KT. IT WAS ALSO APPARENT THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM WAS BECOMING ELONGATED INSTEAD OF CIRCULAR. IN ADDITION,
THE WIND FIELD WAS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN A
BROAD AREA COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHILE THE WINDS
WERE MUCH WEAKER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON
THIS EVIDENCE, WALAKA HAS ALREADY TRANSITIONED TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
GALE LOW THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
45 KT DUE TO THE ASCAT DATA FROM LAST EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 035/23 KT. WALAKA IS BEING
STEERED BY THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS A RESULT, IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
THIS FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

THE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES DRIVING WALAKA'S NEW LIFE AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN AREA OF GALE FORCE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 061506
TCDCP1


Post-Tropical Cyclone Walaka Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Sat Oct 06 2018

Walaka's low-level circulation center (LLCC) remains completely
devoid of deep convection early this morning. The last few
thunderstorms associated with the system are slightly more than
90 n mi southeast of the exposed LLCC. ASCAT passes over Walaka at
0735Z and 0838Z showed the system was stronger than expected, with
surface wind speeds up to 45 kt. It was also apparent the center of
the system was becoming elongated instead of circular. In addition,
the wind field was highly asymmetric, with the strongest winds in a
broad area covering the southeastern semicircle, while the winds
were much weaker over most of the northwestern semicircle. Based on
this evidence, Walaka has already transitioned to an extratropical
gale low this morning. The initial intensity for this advisory is
45 kt due to the ASCAT data from last evening.

The initial motion for this advisory is 035/23 kt. Walaka is being
steered by the deep southwesterly flow associated with an advancing
upper-level trough. As a result, it will likely continue to move
toward the northeast or north-northeast at an increasing forward
speed this weekend. The latest track forecast has been adjusted
slightly to the left compared with the previous advisory package.
This follows a blend of the track guidance based on the latest
operational runs and the ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF
models.

The baroclinic processes driving Walaka's new life as an
extratropical system will likely maintain an area of gale force
winds over the southeastern semicircle during the next 36 hours.
The latest intensity forecast has been adjusted up compared with
the previous advisory package to account for these gales. This
intensity forecast is based on a blend of the most recent GFS and
ECMWF models, which are in good agreement through 24 hours. The
ECMWF maintains 35 kt winds for the 36 hour time period, while the
GFS output indicates the winds may drop below gale force by that
time. Both models continue to insist the system will be absorbed by
a larger extratropical low after 36 hours. Therefore, dissipation
will occur by the 48 hour time period.

This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 36.2N 163.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 07/0000Z 41.0N 160.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/1200Z 48.0N 154.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/0000Z 55.0N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Houston


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 061443
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST SAT OCT 06 2018

...WALAKA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW FAR
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 163.5W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WALAKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.5 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH (43
KM/H). THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN LATE SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

...
FORECASTER HOUSTON


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 061439
TCMCP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 163.5W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 163.5W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 164.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 41.0N 160.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 48.0N 154.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 55.0N 148.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 120SE 45SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 163.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC

..
FORECASTER HOUSTON


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 060905 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 05 2018

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF WALAKA HAS AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THIS AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 37
THOUSAND FEET. THE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC
ALSO APPEAR TO BE LESS DEFINED THIS EVENING ACCORDING TO THE SHORT
WAVE INFRARED IMAGERY (THAT IS, THE SO CALLED .FOG CHANNEL.).
SINCE WALAKA IS LIKELY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT THIS
TIME, WE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 045/15 KT. WALAKA IS BEING
STEERED BY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE, AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT,
WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN THE FUTURE STRUCTURE OF WALAKA ONCE
IT HAS COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW. DUE
TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING, WALAKA WILL ACCELERATE ITS
FORWARD MOTION AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE FOLLOWING A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF (OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS) TRACK GUIDANCE.

WALAKA WILL MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS, BUT THE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES INVOLVED WITH ITS UPCOMING
EXTRATROPICAL PHASE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE LATEST


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 060905
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Fri Oct 05 2018

The exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Walaka has an
area of deep convection located about 60 n mi to the southeast. The
highest cloud tops within this area of towering cumulus clouds
and isolated thunderstorms is estimated to be about 37
thousand feet. The swirl of low clouds associated with the LLCC
also appear to be less defined this evening according to the short
wave infrared imagery (that is, the so called "fog channel").
Since Walaka is likely undergoing extratropical transition at this
time, we will maintain its initial intensity at 40 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 045/15 kt. Walaka is being
steered by deep southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching
upper-level trough. This feature, and its associated surface front,
will also likely play a role in the future structure of Walaka once
it has completed its transition to an extratropical gale low. Due
to the strong southwesterly steering, Walaka will accelerate its
forward motion as it continues to move northeastward during the
next 24 to 36 hours. The latest track forecast has been adjusted
slightly to the left of the previous forecast package following a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF (operational runs and the ensemble
means) track guidance.

Walaka will move over increasingly cooler water during the next 36
hours, but the baroclinic processes involved with its upcoming
extratropical phase will likely maintain an area of gale force winds
over the southeastern semicircle through 36 hours. The latest
intensity forecast has been adjusted up compared with the previous
advisory to account for these gales. The latest intensity forecast
follows a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF guidance, which appear
to be in good agreement.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 34.2N 165.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 37.9N 162.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/0600Z 44.0N 157.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/1800Z 50.0N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Houston


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 060851
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 05 2018

...WALAKA GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE
OPEN OCEAN FAR NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 165.1W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.1 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). THIS
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, BUT WALAKA IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD SPEED
THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WALAKA IS GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL / EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

...
FORECASTER HOUSTON


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 060850
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 165.1W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..520NE 360SE 230SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 165.1W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 165.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.9N 162.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.0N 157.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 50.0N 151.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 165.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

..
FORECASTER HOUSTON


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 0 16.6N 85.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 06.10.2018 12 17.2N 86.5W 1005 26
0000UTC 07.10.2018 24 17.8N 86.1W 1004 28
1200UTC 07.10.2018 36 19.0N 86.7W 1002 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.1N 86.6W 1000 36
1200UTC 08.10.2018 60 20.7N 86.3W 998 39
0000UTC 09.10.2018 72 21.9N 86.3W 994 42
1200UTC 09.10.2018 84 23.2N 86.3W 993 46
0000UTC 10.10.2018 96 25.2N 86.2W 991 51
1200UTC 10.10.2018 108 27.0N 85.9W 981 58
0000UTC 11.10.2018 120 28.6N 84.8W 972 60
1200UTC 11.10.2018 132 30.8N 82.8W 968 42
0000UTC 12.10.2018 144 32.6N 79.9W 971 60

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 88.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 0 13.2N 88.9W 1007 26
1200UTC 06.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 57.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 0 36.7N 57.9W 987 49
1200UTC 06.10.2018 12 37.2N 56.3W 987 47
0000UTC 07.10.2018 24 36.9N 55.0W 986 54
1200UTC 07.10.2018 36 36.8N 52.9W 985 50
0000UTC 08.10.2018 48 35.8N 50.2W 987 48
1200UTC 08.10.2018 60 35.5N 48.8W 987 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 72 33.3N 47.1W 986 55
1200UTC 09.10.2018 84 31.1N 45.0W 979 66
0000UTC 10.10.2018 96 28.6N 44.3W 971 63
1200UTC 10.10.2018 108 26.9N 43.8W 962 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 120 26.9N 43.0W 960 70
1200UTC 11.10.2018 132 28.0N 41.4W 955 77
0000UTC 12.10.2018 144 29.8N 38.4W 947 80

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 122.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 0 15.3N 122.6W 946 78
1200UTC 06.10.2018 12 14.8N 123.5W 951 71
0000UTC 07.10.2018 24 14.7N 124.7W 952 72
1200UTC 07.10.2018 36 14.7N 125.7W 949 74
0000UTC 08.10.2018 48 15.3N 126.6W 948 72
1200UTC 08.10.2018 60 15.9N 126.9W 954 72
0000UTC 09.10.2018 72 16.7N 126.8W 955 68
1200UTC 09.10.2018 84 17.5N 125.8W 957 70
0000UTC 10.10.2018 96 18.4N 124.5W 963 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 108 19.5N 122.2W 955 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 120 21.6N 119.3W 958 67
1200UTC 11.10.2018 132 24.2N 116.7W 968 61
0000UTC 12.10.2018 144 27.8N 113.4W 975 56

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 167.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 0 32.8N 167.3W 994 35
1200UTC 06.10.2018 12 36.0N 164.8W 999 37
0000UTC 07.10.2018 24 43.1N 160.3W 1001 38
1200UTC 07.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060359


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 16.6N 85.5W WEAK
12UTC 06.10.2018 17.2N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 17.8N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 19.0N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 20.1N 86.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 20.7N 86.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 21.9N 86.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 23.2N 86.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 25.2N 86.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 27.0N 85.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 28.6N 84.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 30.8N 82.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 32.6N 79.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 88.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 13.2N 88.9W WEAK
12UTC 06.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 57.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 36.7N 57.9W MODERATE
12UTC 06.10.2018 37.2N 56.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 36.9N 55.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.8N 52.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 35.8N 50.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 35.5N 48.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.3N 47.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.1N 45.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 28.6N 44.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 26.9N 43.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 26.9N 43.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 28.0N 41.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 29.8N 38.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 122.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 15.3N 122.6W INTENSE
12UTC 06.10.2018 14.8N 123.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.7N 124.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.7N 125.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.3N 126.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 15.9N 126.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 16.7N 126.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 17.5N 125.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 18.4N 124.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 19.5N 122.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 21.6N 119.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 24.2N 116.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 27.8N 113.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 167.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 32.8N 167.3W MODERATE
12UTC 06.10.2018 36.0N 164.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 43.1N 160.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060359


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 060247 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST FRI OCT 05 2018

WALAKA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS
MORNING, WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW CLOUD SWIRLS AND OCCASIONALLY OPEN TO THE WEST.
COOLER-TOPPED LAYERED CLOUDS, ALONG WITH A SINGLE SPUTTERING
CUMULONIMBUS, MARK THE SOUTHEAST FLANK. A 2120Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED
TWO SMALL PATCHES OF 45 KT WINDS BENEATH THE LAYERED CLOUDS, WHILE
THE ENTIRE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAD WINDS OF 30 KT OR LESS. LATEST
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5/25 KT FROM JTWC
TO 2.5/35 KT FROM PHFO. SAB CONSIDERED THIS SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY WHILE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 43 KT. USING A MIX OF THESE
ESTIMATES AND AN ASSUMPTION OF CONTINUED WEAKENING FROM THIS
MORNING'S ASCAT PASS, WE WILL ASSIGN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD, WITH INITIAL MOTION
OF 040/12 KT. AFTER MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ALONG
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WALAKA HAS BEGUN TO
RESPOND TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING AHEAD OF A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PICK WALAKA UP
AND ACCELERATE IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. WALAKA IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SATURDAY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE VERY TIGHT GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, FOLLOWING AN ARC JUST TO THE LEFT OF CTCI. THIS TRACK,
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL MOTION,
TERMINATES AT 48 HOURS AS WALAKA BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MID-LATITUDE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 060247
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Fri Oct 05 2018

Walaka's satellite presentation has changed little since this
morning, with an exposed low level circulation center (LLCC)
embedded within low cloud swirls and occasionally open to the west.
Cooler-topped layered clouds, along with a single sputtering
cumulonimbus, mark the southeast flank. A 2120Z ASCAT pass showed
two small patches of 45 kt winds beneath the layered clouds, while
the entire western semicircle had winds of 30 kt or less. Latest
Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 1.5/25 kt from JTWC
to 2.5/35 kt from PHFO. SAB considered this system too weak to
classify while ADT from UW-CIMSS was 43 kt. Using a mix of these
estimates and an assumption of continued weakening from this
morning's ASCAT pass, we will assign an initial intensity of 40 kt
for this advisory.

This weakening system is tracking northeastward, with initial motion
of 040/12 kt. After moving northward over the past few days along
the western fringe of the subtropical ridge, Walaka has begun to
respond to southwesterly steering ahead of a broad north Pacific
upper trough moving in from the northwest. This will pick Walaka up
and accelerate it off to the northeast through Sunday. Walaka is
expected to begin extra-tropical transition Saturday. The official
forecast track lies along the right side of the very tight guidance
envelope, following an arc just to the left of CTCI. This track,
adjusted slightly to the right to account for initial motion,
terminates at 48 hours as Walaka becomes absorbed by a mid-latitude
low.

Walaka will move over increasingly cooler water along its truncated
track, while vertical wind shear dramatically ramps up, reaching 36
kt at 36 hours and 52 kt by 48 hours. Global models show Walaka
will be absorbed by a mid-latitude low by 48 hours, with weakening
and extratropical transition occurring simultaneously from 24 hours
through system dissipation at 48 hours. Our forecast follows the
previous curve, closely tracing ICON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 32.9N 166.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 35.4N 164.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 40.9N 159.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/1200Z 46.9N 154.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 060248
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST FRI OCT 05 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 166.6W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 960 MI...1550 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.6 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). AN ACCELERATION
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WALAKA IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON SATURDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

...
FORECASTER POWELL


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 060247
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 166.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 380SE 170SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 166.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 167.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.4N 164.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 40.9N 159.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 46.9N 154.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 166.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

..
FORECASTER POWELL


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 052054 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST FRI OCT 05 2018

WALAKA, WHICH HAS BEEN DETERIORATING STEADILY ALL NIGHT, IS NOW
COMING APART AT THE SEAMS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP TO THE
WEST, WITH LAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SINGLE WARM-TOPPED
CUMULONIMBUS SPUTTERING WITHIN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE LATEST
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5/25 KT FROM JTWC TO
3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO. SAB ESTIMATED 2.0/30 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS ADT WAS
39 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES, AND WITH A NOD TO CONTINUITY, WE
WILL ASSIGN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION
AND THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS KEEPING THE PHFO ESTIMATE HIGH.

THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM IS TRACKING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH, WITH
INITIAL MOTION OF 030/10 KT. AFTER MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WALAKA
IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING AHEAD OF A BROAD
NORTH PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PICK WALAKA UP AND ACCELERATE IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
SATURDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, STAYING WITHIN THE VERY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
CENTERED ALONG HWRF. THE TRACK TERMINATES AT 48 HOURS AS WALAKA
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

WALAKA WILL MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER ALONG ITS TRUNCATED


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 052054
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Fri Oct 05 2018

Walaka, which has been deteriorating steadily all night, is now
coming apart at the seams in satellite imagery. The exposed low
level circulation center (LLCC) is beginning to open up to the
west, with layered clouds and possibly a single warm-topped
cumulonimbus sputtering within the eastern quadrant. The latest
Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 1.5/25 kt from JTWC to
3.0/45 kt from PHFO. SAB estimated 2.0/30 kt while UW-CIMSS ADT was
39 kt. Based on these estimates, and with a nod to continuity, we
will assign an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.
However, this may be generous given the poor satellite presentation
and the Dvorak constraints keeping the PHFO estimate high.

This weakening system is tracking just east of due north, with
initial motion of 030/10 kt. After moving northward over the past
few days along the western fringe of the subtropical ridge, Walaka
is beginning to respond to southwesterly steering ahead of a broad
north Pacific upper trough moving in from the northwest. This will
pick Walaka up and accelerate it off to the northeast through early
Sunday. Walaka is expected to begin extra-tropical transition
Saturday. The official forecast track is very close to that of the
previous advisory, staying within the very tight guidance envelope
centered along HWRF. The track terminates at 48 hours as Walaka
becomes absorbed by a mid-latitude low.

Walaka will move over increasingly cooler water along its truncated
track, while vertical wind shear dramatically ramps up, reaching 34
kt at 36 hours and 44 kt by 48 hours. Global models show Walaka
will be absorbed by a mid-latitude low by 48 hours, with weakening
and extratropical transition occurring simultaneously from 24 hours
through system dissipation at 48 hours. Our forecast follows the
HCCA weakening trend, which is also quite close to the IVCN curve.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 32.2N 167.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 34.7N 166.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 39.4N 162.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/0600Z 45.7N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 052052
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST FRI OCT 05 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES WEAKENING FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 167.8W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.8 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WALAKA IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON SATURDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

...
FORECASTER POWELL


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 052051
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 167.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..530NE 430SE 190SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 167.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 168.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.7N 166.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.4N 162.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 45.7N 157.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 167.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

..
FORECASTER POWELL


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 051559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 86.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2018 0 11.7N 86.9W 1008 22
0000UTC 06.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N 58.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2018 0 35.8N 58.2W 986 47
0000UTC 06.10.2018 12 36.7N 57.8W 986 51
1200UTC 06.10.2018 24 37.2N 57.0W 986 52
0000UTC 07.10.2018 36 37.0N 54.7W 984 60
1200UTC 07.10.2018 48 36.7N 52.7W 985 50
0000UTC 08.10.2018 60 35.8N 51.1W 986 49
1200UTC 08.10.2018 72 34.9N 49.5W 986 56
0000UTC 09.10.2018 84 33.4N 47.4W 984 52
1200UTC 09.10.2018 96 31.6N 46.2W 979 56
0000UTC 10.10.2018 108 29.4N 45.5W 972 63
1200UTC 10.10.2018 120 28.4N 44.6W 964 72
0000UTC 11.10.2018 132 28.4N 42.5W 955 77
1200UTC 11.10.2018 144 29.5N 38.8W 956 81

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 121.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2018 0 15.9N 121.5W 951 79
0000UTC 06.10.2018 12 15.4N 122.5W 952 74
1200UTC 06.10.2018 24 15.0N 123.5W 955 69
0000UTC 07.10.2018 36 14.8N 124.7W 956 71
1200UTC 07.10.2018 48 15.0N 125.6W 958 68
0000UTC 08.10.2018 60 15.7N 126.3W 954 70
1200UTC 08.10.2018 72 16.5N 126.4W 956 69
0000UTC 09.10.2018 84 17.5N 125.8W 957 67
1200UTC 09.10.2018 96 18.4N 124.5W 952 73
0000UTC 10.10.2018 108 19.4N 122.5W 957 66
1200UTC 10.10.2018 120 20.9N 119.9W 958 66
0000UTC 11.10.2018 132 23.2N 116.6W 969 63
1200UTC 11.10.2018 144 26.6N 113.5W 961 68

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.9N 168.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2018 0 30.9N 168.3W 984 48
0000UTC 06.10.2018 12 32.7N 166.9W 986 44
1200UTC 06.10.2018 24 35.6N 164.3W 994 43
0000UTC 07.10.2018 36 41.9N 160.1W 996 45
1200UTC 07.10.2018 48 48.6N 153.2W 1007 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 17.4N 85.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 24 17.8N 86.5W 1006 27
0000UTC 07.10.2018 36 18.4N 86.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 07.10.2018 48 19.0N 86.9W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 60 19.9N 86.7W 1000 32
1200UTC 08.10.2018 72 20.8N 87.0W 998 39
0000UTC 09.10.2018 84 21.9N 87.4W 995 37
1200UTC 09.10.2018 96 23.2N 87.7W 992 49
0000UTC 10.10.2018 108 25.0N 87.6W 986 54
1200UTC 10.10.2018 120 27.7N 87.2W 968 67
0000UTC 11.10.2018 132 30.5N 86.4W 959 69
1200UTC 11.10.2018 144 33.0N 85.3W 978 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051559


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 051559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 86.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2018 11.7N 86.9W WEAK
00UTC 06.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N 58.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2018 35.8N 58.2W MODERATE
00UTC 06.10.2018 36.7N 57.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 37.2N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 37.0N 54.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.7N 52.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 35.8N 51.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 34.9N 49.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.4N 47.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.6N 46.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 29.4N 45.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 28.4N 44.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 28.4N 42.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 29.5N 38.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 121.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2018 15.9N 121.5W INTENSE
00UTC 06.10.2018 15.4N 122.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 15.0N 123.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.8N 124.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 15.0N 125.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.7N 126.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 16.5N 126.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 17.5N 125.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 18.4N 124.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 19.4N 122.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 20.9N 119.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 23.2N 116.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 26.6N 113.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.9N 168.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2018 30.9N 168.3W MODERATE
00UTC 06.10.2018 32.7N 166.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 35.6N 164.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 41.9N 160.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 48.6N 153.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 17.4N 85.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 17.8N 86.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 18.4N 86.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 19.0N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 19.9N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 20.8N 87.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 21.9N 87.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 23.2N 87.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 25.0N 87.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 27.7N 87.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 30.5N 86.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 33.0N 85.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051559


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 051453 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST FRI OCT 05 2018

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF WALAKA HAS DETERIORATED OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW BECOMING EXPOSED. THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PHFO, 2.5 (35
KNOTS) FROM SAB, WHILE THE ADT CAME IN AT 2.9 (43 KNOTS). A 0755Z
ASCAT PASS CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION
AND SHOWED A 43 KNOT WIND BARB. GIVEN THE DATA FROM THE ASCAT ONLY
SAMPLING THE WEAKER WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE PHFO INTENSITY ESTIMATE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
WALAKA WAS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION
WAS SET AT 010/07 KNOTS.

WALAKA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF 27/28N 167W. THIS MID-UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL
TODAY AS A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PICK WALAKA UP AND ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WALAKA EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCE, GFEX, AND HCCA
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

WALAKA WILL BE OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF ITS JOURNEY ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC,
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE,
THE TRANSITION OVER TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 051453
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Fri Oct 05 2018

The satellite appearance of Walaka has deteriorated overnight, with
the low level circulation center now becoming exposed. The latest
satellite intensity estimates were 3.5 (55 knots) from PHFO, 2.5 (35
knots) from SAB, while the ADT came in at 2.9 (43 knots). A 0755Z
ASCAT pass caught a portion of the western edge of the circulation
and showed a 43 knot wind barb. Given the data from the ASCAT only
sampling the weaker western side of the circulation along with
support from the PHFO intensity estimate, the initial intensity of
Walaka was lowered to 55 knots for this advisory. The initial motion
was set at 010/07 knots.

Walaka continues to interact with a deep mid-upper level low in the
vicinity of 27/28N 167W. This mid-upper low is forecast to fill
today as a broad north Pacific upper trough moves in from the
northwest. This should pick Walaka up and accelerate the cyclone
off to the northeast through Saturday night, with Walaka expected to
undergo the extra-tropical transition late Saturday or Saturday
night. The official forecast track is very close to that of the
previous advisory and is very close to the TVCE, GFEX, and HCCA
consensus guidance.

Walaka will be over cool sea surface temperatures below 25C
throughout the duration of its journey across the north Pacific,
with vertical wind shear expected to increase substantially tonight
and Saturday. Although conditions will become increasingly hostile,
the transition over to an extra-tropical low will likely keep the
intensity from dropping off too much during the next couple of days.
As a result, the official intensity forecast calls for slow and
steady weakening and closely follows a blend of the dynamical
guidance. Walaka is expected to become an extra-tropical low late
Saturday or Saturday night, with dissipation by forecast hour 72.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 31.5N 168.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 32.8N 167.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 36.2N 164.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 42.2N 160.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 49.1N 153.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 051447
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST FRI OCT 05 2018

...WALAKA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 168.3W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM NNW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.3 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SLOW
AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY LATE SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

...
FORECASTER JELSEMA


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 051446
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 168.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..530NE 430SE 190SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 168.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 168.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.8N 167.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 36.2N 164.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.2N 160.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 49.1N 153.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 168.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

..
FORECASTER JELSEMA


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 050859 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST THU OCT 04 2018

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF WALAKA HAS MANAGED TO FIND
ITS WAY UNDER A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING, LIKELY
A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE
UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS, WHICH SHOWED 18 KNOTS OF SHEAR FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES SINCE 05/00Z HAVE BEEN HELPFUL
IN LOCATING THE CENTER POSITION, AND INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED
OF THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PHFO, 3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM SAB, WHILE THE ADT CAME IN AT 3.3 (51 KNOTS). MEANWHILE, AN
EXPERIMENTAL SATCON ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWED AN INTENSITY OF 59
KNOTS. GIVEN THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THIS STORM AND THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LIKELY DROPPING THE INTENSITY TOO QUICKLY, WE
WILL LEAN ON THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. AS A RESULT,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS. THE
INITIAL MOTION WAS SET AT 330/05 KNOTS.

WALAKA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF 27N 169W. THIS INTERACTION SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER
MOVEMENT IN A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DIRECTION OVER TONIGHT. A BROAD
NORTH PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, WILL THEN
PICK WALAKA UP AND ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WALAKA EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION RIGHT AROUND THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POINT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 050859
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Thu Oct 04 2018

The low level circulation center of Walaka has managed to find
its way under a small area of deep convection this evening, likely
a result of the decrease in vertical wind shear as indicated by the
UW-CIMSS shear analysis, which showed 18 knots of shear from the
northeast. Several microwave passes since 05/00Z have been helpful
in locating the center position, and indicate that the forward speed
of the cyclone has slowed considerably. The latest satellite
intensity estimates were 3.5 (55 knots) from PHFO, 3.0 (45 knots)
from SAB, while the ADT came in at 3.3 (51 knots). Meanwhile, an
experimental Satcon estimate from UW-CIMSS showed an intensity of 59
knots. Given the large circulation of this storm and the satellite
intensity estimates likely dropping the intensity too quickly, we
will lean on the high end of the intensity estimates. As a result,
the initial intensity for this advisory was lowered to 60 knots. The
initial motion was set at 330/05 knots.

Walaka continues to interact with a deep mid-upper level low in the
vicinity of 27N 169W. This interaction should lead to a slower
movement in a generally northward direction over tonight. A broad
north Pacific upper trough moving in from the northwest, will then
pick Walaka up and accelerate the cyclone off to the northeast
Friday through Saturday, with Walaka expected to undergo the
extra-tropical transition right around the 48 hour forecast point.
The official forecast track was shifted to the right of the previous
advisory to better align with the latest guidance. The forward
motion was also decreased as guidance has slowed down the expected
forward motion considerably, likely due to a later arrival of the
broad north Pacific upper trough which will eventually lift and
accelerate Walaka northeastward.

Walaka will be over cool sea surface temperatures below 25C through
the remainder of its journey across the Pacific, with vertical wind
shear expected to increase substantially Friday night and Saturday.
As a result, the official intensity forecast which was changed
little from the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with
the latest GFS and ECMWF models, calls for steady weakening. Walaka
is expected to become an extra-tropical low by Saturday evening,
with dissipation expected after forecast hour 72.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 30.6N 168.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 31.7N 168.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 33.6N 166.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 37.3N 163.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 43.3N 158.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 56.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 050837
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST THU OCT 04 2018

...WALAKA WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 168.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM NNW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.3 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND WALAKA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY WALAKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

...
FORECASTER JELSEMA


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 050837
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 168.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 430SE 190SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 168.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 168.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.7N 168.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.6N 166.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.3N 163.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 65SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 43.3N 158.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...115NE 150SE 30SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 56.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 168.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

..
FORECASTER JELSEMA


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 050402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 88.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2018 0 13.9N 88.5W 1006 21
1200UTC 05.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 58.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2018 0 34.2N 58.1W 982 48
1200UTC 05.10.2018 12 36.2N 58.5W 986 46
0000UTC 06.10.2018 24 36.4N 58.2W 987 51
1200UTC 06.10.2018 36 37.2N 56.9W 986 51
0000UTC 07.10.2018 48 36.7N 54.6W 984 56
1200UTC 07.10.2018 60 36.1N 53.2W 983 55
0000UTC 08.10.2018 72 35.3N 52.8W 984 53
1200UTC 08.10.2018 84 35.0N 51.0W 983 56
0000UTC 09.10.2018 96 33.6N 49.3W 983 55
1200UTC 09.10.2018 108 32.3N 48.6W 981 56
0000UTC 10.10.2018 120 30.9N 48.3W 977 64
1200UTC 10.10.2018 132 30.6N 48.1W 967 65
0000UTC 11.10.2018 144 30.9N 46.2W 956 69

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 120.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2018 0 15.8N 120.2W 945 82
1200UTC 05.10.2018 12 16.1N 121.3W 949 82
0000UTC 06.10.2018 24 15.7N 122.1W 942 82
1200UTC 06.10.2018 36 15.3N 123.3W 949 74
0000UTC 07.10.2018 48 14.9N 124.4W 947 72
1200UTC 07.10.2018 60 14.9N 125.4W 949 71
0000UTC 08.10.2018 72 15.3N 126.3W 946 77
1200UTC 08.10.2018 84 16.1N 126.5W 952 73
0000UTC 09.10.2018 96 17.0N 126.1W 955 66
1200UTC 09.10.2018 108 18.0N 124.9W 956 69
0000UTC 10.10.2018 120 19.1N 123.4W 959 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 132 20.5N 121.2W 954 71
0000UTC 11.10.2018 144 22.7N 118.6W 967 62

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 167.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2018 0 29.7N 167.1W 967 60
1200UTC 05.10.2018 12 31.2N 168.3W 979 53
0000UTC 06.10.2018 24 33.0N 167.1W 984 50
1200UTC 06.10.2018 36 36.0N 164.3W 993 44
0000UTC 07.10.2018 48 42.8N 159.8W 996 45
1200UTC 07.10.2018 60 50.0N 151.9W 1006 36
0000UTC 08.10.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 26.9N 31.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 24 26.9N 31.7W 1012 24
1200UTC 06.10.2018 36 26.2N 29.2W 1011 23
0000UTC 07.10.2018 48 26.6N 26.7W 1011 22
1200UTC 07.10.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.9N 86.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 36 17.9N 86.9W 1005 27
0000UTC 07.10.2018 48 18.7N 86.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 07.10.2018 60 19.9N 87.2W 1003 35
0000UTC 08.10.2018 72 20.3N 87.1W 1001 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 84 21.6N 88.4W 1001 35
0000UTC 09.10.2018 96 22.4N 88.4W 1000 33
1200UTC 09.10.2018 108 23.9N 88.6W 999 37
0000UTC 10.10.2018 120 26.0N 88.3W 997 37
1200UTC 10.10.2018 132 28.9N 87.0W 990 49
0000UTC 11.10.2018 144 32.0N 85.2W 979 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.9N 145.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2018 132 9.9N 145.2W 1007 24
0000UTC 11.10.2018 144 10.6N 144.2W 1006 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050402


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 050402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 88.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2018 13.9N 88.5W WEAK
12UTC 05.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 58.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2018 34.2N 58.1W MODERATE
12UTC 05.10.2018 36.2N 58.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 36.4N 58.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 37.2N 56.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 36.7N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.1N 53.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 35.3N 52.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 35.0N 51.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.6N 49.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 32.3N 48.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 30.9N 48.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 30.6N 48.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 30.9N 46.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 120.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2018 15.8N 120.2W INTENSE
12UTC 05.10.2018 16.1N 121.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 15.7N 122.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 15.3N 123.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.9N 124.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.9N 125.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.3N 126.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 16.1N 126.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 17.0N 126.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 18.0N 124.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 19.1N 123.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 20.5N 121.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 22.7N 118.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 167.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2018 29.7N 167.1W STRONG
12UTC 05.10.2018 31.2N 168.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 33.0N 167.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 36.0N 164.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 42.8N 159.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 50.0N 151.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 26.9N 31.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 26.9N 31.7W WEAK
12UTC 06.10.2018 26.2N 29.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 26.6N 26.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.9N 86.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 17.9N 86.9W WEAK
00UTC 07.10.2018 18.7N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 19.9N 87.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 20.3N 87.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 21.6N 88.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 22.4N 88.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 23.9N 88.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 26.0N 88.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 28.9N 87.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 32.0N 85.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.9N 145.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2018 9.9N 145.2W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2018 10.6N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050402


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 050246 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST THU OCT 04 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WALAKA CONTINUES TO DEGRADE RAPIDLY AS
THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. A DIMINISHING
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AND OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 3.5/55 KT FROM SAB AND 4.0/65 KT
OUT OF HFO, WHILE CIMSS ADT YIELDS 59 KT. GIVEN THESE INPUTS AND
THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
LOWERED TO 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST (325 DEGREES) AT 16 KT,
AS WALAKA ROTATES AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS THIS INTERACTION CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT,
WALAKA WILL LOSE FORWARD SPEED AND MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. A
BROAD NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PICK UP
WALAKA ON FRIDAY AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OF WALAKA
WILL RACE TOWARD THE COLD WATERS OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FORECAST
TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PRIOR ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT MOTION AND REMAINS NEAR TVCE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RATHER
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DECLINING
AND WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SSTS WILL DROP BELOW
25C, AND THIS, ALONG WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP LOW,
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEAKENING TREND. LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 050246
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Thu Oct 04 2018

The satellite presentation of Walaka continues to degrade rapidly as
the cyclone interacts with a mid- to upper-level low. A diminishing
amount of deep convection remains confined to the northeast of the
exposed low-level circulation center, and outflow is restricted in
the northwest and south quadrants. Subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates are down to 3.5/55 kt from SAB and 4.0/65 kt
out of HFO, while CIMSS ADT yields 59 kt. Given these inputs and
the poor satellite presentation, the initial intensity will be
lowered to 65 kt.

The initial motion is toward the northwest (325 degrees) at 16 kt,
as Walaka rotates around the northern edge of the mid- to
upper-level low. As this interaction continues through tonight,
Walaka will lose forward speed and make a turn toward the north. A
broad North Pacific trough moving in from the northwest will pick up
Walaka on Friday and cause the cyclone to accelerate toward the
northeast. On Saturday and Sunday, the extratropical low of Walaka
will race toward the cold waters of the Gulf of Alaska. The forecast
track was shifted to the left of the prior advisory to account for
recent motion and remains near TVCE in the middle of a rather
tightly clustered guidance envelope.

Continued weakening is expected. Vertical wind shear is declining
and will be light tonight and Friday. However, SSTs will drop below
25C, and this, along with continued interaction with the deep low,
should maintain the weakening trend. Late Friday and Saturday, the
approaching, broad North Pacific trough will produce increasing
vertical wind shear and cause the cyclone to accelerate
northeastward over increasingly colder waters. Under these hostile
conditions, transition to an extratropical low is forecast to occur
by Saturday, though it may happen much earlier if convection fails
to redevelop. Given recent satellite trends, the rate of short term
weakening was increased from the previous advisory. The remainder of
the forecast was changed little and remains in the middle of the
guidance envelope near ICON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 30.2N 168.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 32.0N 168.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 34.4N 166.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 38.6N 163.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 44.7N 158.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0000Z 56.8N 146.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 050242 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST THU OCT 04 2018

...WALAKA RAPIDLY WEAKENING FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 168.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM NNW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.0 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES
(415 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY WALAKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 050242
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Thu Oct 04 2018

...WALAKA RAPIDLY WEAKENING FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 168.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM NNW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 168.0 West. Walaka is moving
toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the
north and a slowing of the forward speed is expected tonight,
followed by an acceleration toward the northeast on Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Walaka is expected to become a post-tropical low by Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 260 miles
(415 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Walaka will continue to affect portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument and the main Hawaiian
Islands tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 050243
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 168.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT.......225NE 225SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 425SE 350SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 168.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 167.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.0N 168.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 34.4N 166.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.6N 163.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 44.7N 158.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...115NE 115SE 30SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 56.8N 146.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 168.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

..
FORECASTER WROE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 042051 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST THU OCT 04 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WALAKA HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY
UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 4.0/65 KT FROM SAB AND 4.5/77 KT
OUT OF HFO. CIMSS ADT YIELDED 82 KT, AND A 1747Z CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE WAS AT 77 KT. GIVEN THESE INPUTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE LOWERED TO 80 KT, WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.

WALAKA IS INTERACTING WITH A DEEP, MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS
WEST, AND THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS TOWARD THE NORTH AT
19 KT. AS THIS INTERACTION CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT, WALAKA WILL LOSE
FORWARD SPEED AND MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A BROAD
NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PICK UP
WALAKA ON FRIDAY AND CAUSE IT TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OF WALAKA WILL RACE
TOWARD THE COLD WATERS OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS
CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR TVCE.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL DECLINE LATER TODAY, SSTS WILL DROP BELOW 26C, AND CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEAKENING TREND.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL STEADILY RISE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND
AS WALAKA ACCELERATES OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS, TRANSITION TO


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 042051
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Thu Oct 04 2018

The satellite presentation of Walaka has degraded significantly
under persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear. The low level
circulation center has become partially exposed, with deep
convection displaced to the northeast and east. Subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates were 4.0/65 kt from SAB and 4.5/77 kt
out of HFO. CIMSS ADT yielded 82 kt, and a 1747Z CIMSS SATCON
estimate was at 77 kt. Given these inputs, the initial intensity
will be lowered to 80 kt, which could be generous.

Walaka is interacting with a deep, mid- to upper-level low to its
west, and the initial motion of the hurricane is toward the north at
19 kt. As this interaction continues into tonight, Walaka will lose
forward speed and make a turn toward the north-northwest. A broad
North Pacific trough moving in from the northwest will pick up
Walaka on Friday and cause it to accelerate toward the northeast. On
late Saturday and Sunday, the extratropical low of Walaka will race
toward the cold waters of the Gulf of Alaska. The forecast track was
changed little from previous advisory and is near the middle of a
tightly clustered guidance envelope near TVCE.

Continued weakening is expected. Even though vertical wind shear
will decline later today, SSTs will drop below 26C, and continued
interaction with the deep low should maintain the weakening trend.
Vertical wind shear will steadily rise on Friday and Saturday, and
as Walaka accelerates over increasingly colder waters, transition to
an extratropical low could occur late Saturday or Sunday. For this
advisory, the rate of weakening was increased slightly to be in
better line with recent satellite trends, though still not as
aggressive as the statistical guidance. The intensity forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope near ICON and closest to HMON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 28.8N 166.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 30.6N 167.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 32.6N 166.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 35.2N 164.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 40.1N 160.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 53.0N 149.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 042049 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST THU OCT 04 2018

...HURRICANE WALAKA MOVING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 166.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES (370 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB (28.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: LARGE SURF GENERATED BY THE BROAD WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 042049
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Thu Oct 04 2018

...HURRICANE WALAKA MOVING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 166.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 166.3 West. Walaka is
moving toward the north near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and a slowing of forward speed is expected today,
followed by an acceleration toward the northeast on Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large surf generated by the broad wind field associated
with Walaka will continue to impact most of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument today, and swells will reach as far east
as the main Hawaiian Islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 042048 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 166.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 400SE 350SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 166.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 166.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.6N 167.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.6N 166.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 35.2N 164.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 40.1N 160.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 53.0N 149.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 042048
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 166.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 400SE 350SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 166.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 166.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.6N 167.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.6N 166.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 35.2N 164.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 40.1N 160.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 53.0N 149.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 166.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 041804 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
800 AM HST THU OCT 04 2018

...HURRICANE WALAKA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTH...
....STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SURF CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 166.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.1 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 041804
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
800 AM HST Thu Oct 04 2018

...HURRICANE WALAKA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTH...
...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SURF CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 166.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are occurring within the warning area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 166.1 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and a slowing of forward speed is expected today,
followed by an acceleration toward the northeast on Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to continue during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will likely persist into
mid-morning across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument from east of French Frigate Shoals to Gardner
Pinnacles.

SURF: Large surf generated by the broad wind field associated
with Walaka will continue to impact most of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe



Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 041600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01C (WALAKA) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 25.9N 166.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 000 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9N 166.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 29.4N 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.8N 167.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.4N 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 38.9N 162.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 51.0N 151.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 166.6W.
HURRICANE 01C (WALAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP NUMBER AND NUMBER
OF STORMS IN BASIN.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 041558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 56.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2018 0 31.6N 56.7W 978 53
0000UTC 05.10.2018 12 34.2N 57.7W 976 51
1200UTC 05.10.2018 24 36.5N 58.1W 982 47
0000UTC 06.10.2018 36 37.2N 58.4W 980 50
1200UTC 06.10.2018 48 37.9N 56.5W 978 60
0000UTC 07.10.2018 60 37.8N 53.3W 974 62
1200UTC 07.10.2018 72 36.9N 50.6W 975 59
0000UTC 08.10.2018 84 35.8N 48.0W 976 56
1200UTC 08.10.2018 96 34.7N 45.9W 973 54
0000UTC 09.10.2018 108 33.0N 43.4W 971 57
1200UTC 09.10.2018 120 31.0N 40.8W 968 64
0000UTC 10.10.2018 132 29.1N 38.1W 961 71
1200UTC 10.10.2018 144 27.7N 34.7W 959 79

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 119.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2018 0 14.7N 119.1W 938 85
0000UTC 05.10.2018 12 15.6N 120.2W 953 78
1200UTC 05.10.2018 24 16.1N 121.2W 950 80
0000UTC 06.10.2018 36 15.8N 122.3W 944 82
1200UTC 06.10.2018 48 15.3N 123.6W 950 77
0000UTC 07.10.2018 60 15.0N 124.7W 942 76
1200UTC 07.10.2018 72 14.8N 125.8W 944 74
0000UTC 08.10.2018 84 15.2N 126.8W 946 75
1200UTC 08.10.2018 96 16.0N 126.8W 948 77
0000UTC 09.10.2018 108 16.9N 126.5W 951 71
1200UTC 09.10.2018 120 17.8N 125.6W 950 74
0000UTC 10.10.2018 132 18.8N 124.0W 950 73
1200UTC 10.10.2018 144 20.1N 122.2W 949 73

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 166.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2018 0 25.6N 166.1W 949 89
0000UTC 05.10.2018 12 29.5N 167.0W 972 54
1200UTC 05.10.2018 24 31.1N 168.0W 979 53
0000UTC 06.10.2018 36 32.8N 166.9W 981 50
1200UTC 06.10.2018 48 36.2N 164.2W 988 52
0000UTC 07.10.2018 60 43.0N 159.4W 995 47
1200UTC 07.10.2018 72 49.7N 152.2W 1006 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 9.8N 137.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2018 12 10.0N 137.1W 1005 23
1200UTC 05.10.2018 24 10.4N 136.2W 1007 24
0000UTC 06.10.2018 36 10.5N 135.7W 1006 23
1200UTC 06.10.2018 48 10.1N 135.9W 1007 22
0000UTC 07.10.2018 60 9.1N 135.9W 1007 19
1200UTC 07.10.2018 72 8.2N 135.5W 1007 22
0000UTC 08.10.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.3N 91.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2018 108 23.5N 92.3W 1001 32
1200UTC 09.10.2018 120 25.1N 92.1W 999 33
0000UTC 10.10.2018 132 28.4N 91.7W 996 40
1200UTC 10.10.2018 144 32.5N 90.5W 995 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 8.8N 148.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2018 144 9.1N 147.9W 1007 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041558


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 041558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 56.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.10.2018 31.6N 56.7W STRONG
00UTC 05.10.2018 34.2N 57.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 36.5N 58.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 37.2N 58.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 37.9N 56.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 37.8N 53.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.9N 50.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 35.8N 48.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 34.7N 45.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.0N 43.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.0N 40.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 29.1N 38.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 27.7N 34.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 119.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.10.2018 14.7N 119.1W INTENSE
00UTC 05.10.2018 15.6N 120.2W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 16.1N 121.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 15.8N 122.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 15.3N 123.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 15.0N 124.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.8N 125.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.2N 126.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 16.0N 126.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 16.9N 126.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 17.8N 125.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 18.8N 124.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 20.1N 122.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 166.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.10.2018 25.6N 166.1W INTENSE
00UTC 05.10.2018 29.5N 167.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 31.1N 168.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 32.8N 166.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 36.2N 164.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 43.0N 159.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 49.7N 152.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 9.8N 137.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2018 10.0N 137.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 10.4N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 10.5N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 10.1N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 9.1N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 8.2N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.3N 91.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.10.2018 23.5N 92.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 25.1N 92.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 28.4N 91.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 32.5N 90.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 8.8N 148.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2018 9.1N 147.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041558


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 041507 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST THU OCT 04 2018

WALAKA'S PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
EVIDENT SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PERSISTENT WEAKENING, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.0/90 KT FROM JTWC AND PHFO, AND
4.5/77 KT FROM SAB. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AROUND 1330Z
HAS LOWERED TO 5.2/95 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS 95 KT.

WALAKA'S INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 360/17 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. WE HAVE HAD TO
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST COMPARED
WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE 12 TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIODS.
THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WAY THE MODELS ARE HANDLING WALAKA'S
INTERACTION WITH A DEEP LAYER LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR 29N 171W. SINCE
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW WARM CORE WALAKA
WILL RESPOND TO THE CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH THIS BAROCLINIC FEATURE, WE
ARE ASSUMING IT WILL SURVIVE THE EVENT INTACT. SO WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN MIND, WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT A
SLOWER SPEED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, AGAIN ASSUMING
WALAKA IS A VIABLE SYSTEM, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HOUR TIME PERIODS. AN
ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE 48 TO 72
HOUR TIME PERIODS.


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 041507
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Thu Oct 04 2018

Walaka's partially exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) is
evident southwest of an area of deep convection. Strong vertical
wind shear from the southwest is likely responsible for this. As a
result of this persistent weakening, the latest subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates were 5.0/90 kt from JTWC and PHFO, and
4.5/77 kt from SAB. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate around 1330Z
has lowered to 5.2/95 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity for this
advisory is 95 kt.

Walaka's initial motion for this advisory is 360/17 kt. The track
forecast guidance remains rather tightly clustered. We have had to
make some minor adjustments in the latest track forecast compared
with the previous advisory during the 12 to 48 hour time periods.
This is primarily due to the way the models are handling Walaka's
interaction with a deep layer low now centered near 29N 171W. Since
there remains a great deal of uncertainty about how warm core Walaka
will respond to the close encounter with this baroclinic feature, we
are assuming it will survive the event intact. So with this
uncertainty in mind, Walaka is expected to move northward at a
slower speed within the next 12 hours, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest between 12 and 24 hours. After that, again assuming
Walaka is a viable system, it is expected to turn toward the
north-northeast between the 24 and 36 hour time periods. An
accelerating north-northeast motion is forecast during the 48 to 72
hour time periods.

With continued strong vertical wind shear , sea surface
temperatures (SST) dropping below 27 degrees C, and reduced ocean
heating content today, Walaka will likely experience a rather rapid
weakening trend. By tonight, the guidance continues to suggest the
vertical wind shear may relax somewhat. However, water temperatures
will become a limiting factor, since the SST would likely cool to
24-25 degrees C. As was mentioned above, we are still not certain
how the interaction with the cold core low will affect Walaka.
Assuming it survives intact as a warm core system, we continue to
maintain it as a tropical storm between 36 and 48 hours. After that,
extratropical transition will likely occur, so that Walaka will
likely be an extratropical gale low by day 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 26.8N 166.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 29.4N 166.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 31.8N 167.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 34.4N 165.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 38.9N 162.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 51.0N 151.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Houston


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 041451 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST THU OCT 04 2018

...HURRICANE WALAKA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTH...
....STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SURF CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 166.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF HAS BEEN CHANGED
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.5 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WALAKA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 041451
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Thu Oct 04 2018

...HURRICANE WALAKA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTH...
...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SURF CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 166.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef has been changed
to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are occurring within the warning area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 166.5 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). It is expected to slow
its forward speed and turn toward the north-northwest later today
and tonight. From Friday through early Saturday morning, Walaka is
forecast to move toward the north-northeast at a faster forward
speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to continue during the next
couple of days, but Walaka is forecast to remain a hurricane
through early Friday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will likely persist into
mid-morning across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument from east of French Frigate Shoals to Gardner
Pinnacles.

SURF: Large surf generated by the broad wind field associated
with Walaka will continue to impact most of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 041447 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF HAS BEEN CHANGED
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 166.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 370SW 370NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 166.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 166.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.4N 166.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.8N 167.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 90NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 041447
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF HAS BEEN CHANGED
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 166.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 370SW 370NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 166.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 166.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.4N 166.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.8N 167.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 34.4N 165.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.9N 162.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 51.0N 151.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 166.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 041153 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
200 AM HST THU OCT 04 2018

...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
....LARGE SURF AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BATTER MOST OF THE
AREA BETWEEN NIHOA AND MARO REEF...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 166.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.2 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WALAKA IS FORECAST TO


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 041153
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
200 AM HST Thu Oct 04 2018

...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...LARGE SURF AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BATTER MOST OF THE
AREA BETWEEN NIHOA AND MARO REEF...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 166.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are
possible somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are occurring within the warning area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 166.2 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this morning. Walaka is forecast to
turn toward the north with a slower forward speed later today,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest tonight. By Friday, it
is forecast to begin moving toward the north-northeast again.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka remains a powerful category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected
through Friday, but Walaka is forecast to remain a hurricane through
early Friday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions may remain over some areas in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between French Frigate
Shoals and Gardner Pinnacles. Tropical storm force winds will likely
persist this morning elsewhere over most of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument east of Maro Reef.

SURF: Large surf will continue to impact the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument today. These large waves have likely
inundated some of the low-lying atolls, especially from just east
of French Frigate Shoals to near Maro Reef.

RAINFALL: Bands with heavy rainfall will likely continue across
some areas of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Gardner Pinnacles this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 040918 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST WED OCT 03 2018

WALAKA'S APPEARANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS EVENING, WITH NO
SIGNS OF AN EYE. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BLAME FOR
THIS. FORTUNATELY, A PLETHORA OF MICROWAVE IMAGES WERE AVAILABLE
FROM THE FNMOC AND NRL WEB SITES EARLIER THIS EVENING. THESE
PASSES, WHICH WERE USEFUL FOR DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), INDICATED THE EYEWALL
STRUCTURE APPEARED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT INTACT, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME DEGRADATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT OF
THIS CONTINUED WEAKENING, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.5/102 KT FROM JTWC AND PHFO, AND 4.5/77
KT FROM SAB. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 5.8/110 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 110 KT.

WALAKA'S INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 025/19 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, BUT IT HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT DURING THE 12 TO 36 HOUR TIME PERIODS.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE 12 TO
48 HOUR TIME PERIODS. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WAY THE MODELS
ARE HANDLING THE MUCH ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH A DEEP LAYER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N 170W THIS EVENING. SINCE THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW WARM CORE WALAKA WILL RESPOND TO THE CLOSE
ENCOUNTER WITH THIS BAROCLINIC FEATURE, WE ARE ASSUMING IT WILL
SURVIVE THE EVENT INTACT. SO WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY IN MIND, WE HAVE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 040918
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

Walaka's appearance has continued to degrade this evening, with no
signs of an eye. Strong vertical wind shear is likely to blame for
this. Fortunately, a plethora of microwave images were available
from the FNMOC and NRL web sites earlier this evening. These
passes, which were useful for determining the location of the
low-level circulation center (LLCC), indicated the eyewall
structure appeared to remain somewhat intact, although there has
been some degradation in the southeastern quadrant. As a result of
this continued weakening, the latest subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates were 5.5/102 kt from JTWC and PHFO, and 4.5/77
kt from SAB. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was 5.8/110 kt.
The initial intensity for this advisory is 110 kt.

Walaka's initial motion for this advisory is 025/19 kt. The track
forecast guidance remains tightly clustered, but it has shifted
slightly to the left during the 12 to 36 hour time periods.
Therefore, we have had to make some minor adjustments in the current
track forecast compared with the previous advisory during the 12 to
48 hour time periods. This is primarily due to the way the models
are handling the much anticipated interaction with a deep layer low
centered near 30N 170W this evening. Since there is a great deal of
uncertainty about how warm core Walaka will respond to the close
encounter with this baroclinic feature, we are assuming it will
survive the event intact. So with this uncertainty in mind, we have
Walaka moving northward at a slower speed within the next 12 hours,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest between 12 and 24
hours. After that, again assuming Walaka is a viable system, it is
expected to turn toward the north-northeast by the 36 hour time
period. An accelerating north-northeast motion is forecast during
the 48 to 72 hour time periods.

With continued strong vertical wind shear into Thursday and sea
surface temperatures (SST) dropping to around 27 degrees C later
tonight, Walaka will likely experience a more rapid weakening trend
through early Thursday morning. We continue to weaken it below major
hurricane status within 12 hours. By late Thursday, the guidance
continues to suggest the vertical wind shear may relax somewhat.
However, water temperatures and ocean heat content will become
limiting factors, since SST would likely cool to 24-25 degrees C.
As was mentioned above, we are still not certain how the interaction
with the cold core low will affect Walaka. Assuming it survives
intact, we continue to maintain it as a tropical storm between 36
and 48 hours. After that, extratropical transition will likely
occur, so that Walaka will likely be an extratropical low by day 3.
Note that the latest intensity forecast was adjusted slightly up
from the previous package during the 36 to 72 hour time periods.
This is more in line with the latest GFS and ECMWF output.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.8N 166.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 27.5N 166.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 30.3N 167.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 32.5N 166.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 35.4N 164.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 46.0N 156.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Houston


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 040905 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST WED OCT 03 2018

WALAKA'S APPEARANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS EVENING, WITH NO
SIGNS OF AN EYE. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BLAME FOR
THIS. FORTUNATELY, A PLETHORA OF MICROWAVE IMAGES WERE AVAILABLE
FROM THE FNMOC AND NRL WEB SITES EARLIER THIS EVENING. THESE
PASSES, WHICH WERE USEFUL FOR DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), INDICATED THE EYEWALL
STRUCTURE APPEARED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT INTACT, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME DEGRADATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT OF
THIS CONTINUED WEAKENING, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.5/102 KT FROM JTWC AND PHFO, AND 4.5/77
KT FROM SAB. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 5.8/110 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 110 KT.

WALAKA'S INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 025/19 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, SO WE HAVE HAD TO MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE 12 TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIODS. THIS IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WAY THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MUCH
ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N 170W
THIS EVENING. SINCE THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW
WARM CORE WALAKA WILL RESPOND TO THE CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH THIS
BAROCLINIC FEATURE, WE ARE ASSUMING IT WILL SURVIVE THE EVENT
INTACT. SO WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY IN MIND, WE HAVE WALAKA MOVING
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER SPEED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 040905
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

Walaka's appearance has continued to degrade this evening, with no
signs of an eye. Strong vertical wind shear is likely to blame for
this. Fortunately, a plethora of microwave images were available
from the FNMOC and NRL web sites earlier this evening. These
passes, which were useful for determining the location of the
low-level circulation center (LLCC), indicated the eyewall
structure appeared to remain somewhat intact, although there has
been some degradation in the southeastern quadrant. As a result of
this continued weakening, the latest subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates were 5.5/102 kt from JTWC and PHFO, and 4.5/77
kt from SAB. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was 5.8/110 kt.
The initial intensity for this advisory is 110 kt.

Walaka's initial motion for this advisory is 025/19 kt. The track
forecast guidance remains tightly clustered, so we have had to make
some minor adjustments in the track forecast compared with the
previous advisory during the 12 to 48 hour time periods. This is
primarily due to the way the models are handling the much
anticipated interaction with a deep layer low centered near 30N 170W
this evening. Since there is a great deal of uncertainty about how
warm core Walaka will respond to the close encounter with this
baroclinic feature, we are assuming it will survive the event
intact. So with this uncertainty in mind, we have Walaka moving
northward at a slower speed within the next 12 hours, followed by a
turn toward the north-northwest between 12 and 24 hours. After that,
again assuming Walaka is a viable system, it is expected to turn
toward the north-northeast by the 36 hour time period. An
accelerating north-northeast motion is forecast during the 48 to 72
hour time periods.

With continued strong vertical wind shear into Thursday and sea
surface temperatures (SST) dropping to around 27 degrees C later
tonight, Walaka will likely experience a more rapid weakening trend
through early Thursday morning. We continue to weaken it below major
hurricane status within 12 hours. By late Thursday, the guidance
continues to suggest the vertical wind shear may relax somewhat.
However, water temperatures and ocean heat content will become a
limiting factors, since to SST would likely cool to 24-25 degrees C.
As was mentioned above, we are still not certain how the interaction
with the cold core low will affect Walaka. Assuming it survives
intact, we continue to maintain it as a tropical storm between 36
and 48 hours. After that, extratropical transition will likely
occur, so that Walaka will likely be an extratropical low by day 3.
Note that the latest intensity forecast was adjusted slightly up
from the previous package during the 36 to 72 hour time periods.
This is more in line with the latest GFS and ECMWF output.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.8N 166.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 27.5N 166.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 30.3N 167.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 32.5N 166.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 35.4N 164.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 46.0N 156.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Houston


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 040852 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST WED OCT 03 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE WALAKA CONTINUES TO BATTER PORTIONS
OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 166.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NNW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.7 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WALAKA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 040852
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE WALAKA CONTINUES TO BATTER PORTIONS
OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 166.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NNW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are imminent
or occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are imminent or occurring within the warning area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 166.7 West. Walaka is
moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday
morning. Walaka is forecast to turn toward the north with a slower
forward speed during the day on Thursday, followed by a turn toward
the north-northwest Thursday night. By Friday, it is forecast to
to begin moving toward the north-northeast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka remains a powerful category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected
through Friday, but Walaka is forecast to remain a hurricane through
Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument between French Frigate Shoals and Gardner
Pinnacles. Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds persist over the
remainder of the area between Necker Island and Maro Reef. These
very strong and dangerous winds will likely persist through early
Thursday over most of this region.

SURF: Large surf will continue to impact the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument through Thursday. These large waves are
likely inundating some of the low-lying atolls tonight, especially
from just east of French Frigate Shoals to near Maro Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall will continue across most of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 040844 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 166.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 166.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 167.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N 166.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.3N 167.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 040844
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 166.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 166.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 167.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N 166.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.3N 167.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.5N 166.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 35.4N 164.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 46.0N 156.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 166.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 040545 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
800 PM HST WED OCT 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA CROSSING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT JUST WEST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 167.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH..205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.2 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. WALAKA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 040545
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
800 PM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA CROSSING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT JUST WEST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 167.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH..205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are imminent
or occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are imminent or occurring within the warning area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 167.2 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. Walaka is forecast to turn toward the
north with a slower forward speed Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is forecast to continue
through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument between French Frigate Shoals and Gardner
Pinnacles this evening. Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are
occurring over most of the area between Necker Island and Maro Reef.
These very strong and dangerous winds will likely persist through
early Thursday over most of this region.

SURF: Large surf will continue to impact the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument through Thursday morning. These large
waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls, especially
from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall will continue across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston



Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 040359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2018 0 30.0N 57.0W 974 56
1200UTC 04.10.2018 12 31.7N 57.0W 967 63
0000UTC 05.10.2018 24 34.3N 57.4W 961 64
1200UTC 05.10.2018 36 36.6N 58.1W 968 55
0000UTC 06.10.2018 48 37.6N 57.9W 967 60
1200UTC 06.10.2018 60 38.0N 56.5W 965 67
0000UTC 07.10.2018 72 37.8N 53.2W 967 62
1200UTC 07.10.2018 84 36.8N 50.4W 968 61
0000UTC 08.10.2018 96 35.8N 48.1W 971 55
1200UTC 08.10.2018 108 34.9N 46.4W 974 57
0000UTC 09.10.2018 120 33.9N 44.1W 974 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 132 31.6N 42.5W 969 62
0000UTC 10.10.2018 144 29.4N 40.1W 965 68

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 118.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2018 0 13.4N 118.3W 946 79
1200UTC 04.10.2018 12 14.7N 119.3W 947 75
0000UTC 05.10.2018 24 15.7N 120.4W 954 77
1200UTC 05.10.2018 36 16.2N 121.6W 949 79
0000UTC 06.10.2018 48 16.2N 122.8W 946 79
1200UTC 06.10.2018 60 15.9N 124.4W 948 76
0000UTC 07.10.2018 72 15.6N 125.7W 943 80
1200UTC 07.10.2018 84 15.3N 127.0W 945 76
0000UTC 08.10.2018 96 15.6N 128.2W 947 72
1200UTC 08.10.2018 108 16.1N 129.0W 956 68
0000UTC 09.10.2018 120 16.8N 129.1W 956 68
1200UTC 09.10.2018 132 17.5N 128.5W 958 69
0000UTC 10.10.2018 144 18.2N 127.3W 961 66

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 168.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2018 0 22.0N 168.2W 963 73
1200UTC 04.10.2018 12 25.9N 166.3W 959 78
0000UTC 05.10.2018 24 29.6N 167.5W 976 54
1200UTC 05.10.2018 36 30.8N 168.8W 984 46
0000UTC 06.10.2018 48 31.4N 167.9W 988 44
1200UTC 06.10.2018 60 33.0N 165.9W 995 40
0000UTC 07.10.2018 72 36.3N 163.1W 999 40
1200UTC 07.10.2018 84 42.7N 159.1W 1001 45
0000UTC 08.10.2018 96 48.9N 153.3W 1010 32
1200UTC 08.10.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 9.7N 137.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2018 12 9.7N 137.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 05.10.2018 24 10.0N 136.6W 1004 26
1200UTC 05.10.2018 36 10.4N 135.9W 1006 25
0000UTC 06.10.2018 48 10.5N 135.3W 1006 22
1200UTC 06.10.2018 60 9.8N 135.0W 1007 21
0000UTC 07.10.2018 72 8.8N 134.3W 1007 23
1200UTC 07.10.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.9N 89.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 48 12.9N 89.3W 1004 32
1200UTC 06.10.2018 60 13.5N 91.4W 1004 34
0000UTC 07.10.2018 72 14.2N 93.2W 1002 43
1200UTC 07.10.2018 84 14.3N 94.0W 998 42
0000UTC 08.10.2018 96 15.2N 94.7W 990 50
1200UTC 08.10.2018 108 16.7N 94.6W 996 32
0000UTC 09.10.2018 120 18.8N 94.9W 1002 30
1200UTC 09.10.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.5N 91.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 60 13.5N 91.4W 1004 34
0000UTC 07.10.2018 72 14.2N 93.2W 1002 43
1200UTC 07.10.2018 84 14.3N 94.0W 998 42
0000UTC 08.10.2018 96 15.2N 94.7W 990 50
1200UTC 08.10.2018 108 16.7N 94.6W 996 32
0000UTC 09.10.2018 120 18.8N 94.9W 1002 30
1200UTC 09.10.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040359


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 040359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2018 30.0N 57.0W STRONG
12UTC 04.10.2018 31.7N 57.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 34.3N 57.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 36.6N 58.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 37.6N 57.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 38.0N 56.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 37.8N 53.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.8N 50.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 35.8N 48.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 34.9N 46.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.9N 44.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.6N 42.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 29.4N 40.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 118.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2018 13.4N 118.3W INTENSE
12UTC 04.10.2018 14.7N 119.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 15.7N 120.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 16.2N 121.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 16.2N 122.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 15.9N 124.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 15.6N 125.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 15.3N 127.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.6N 128.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 16.1N 129.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 16.8N 129.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 17.5N 128.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 18.2N 127.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 168.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2018 22.0N 168.2W STRONG
12UTC 04.10.2018 25.9N 166.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 29.6N 167.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 30.8N 168.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 31.4N 167.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 33.0N 165.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 36.3N 163.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 42.7N 159.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 48.9N 153.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 9.7N 137.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.10.2018 9.7N 137.5W WEAK
00UTC 05.10.2018 10.0N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 10.4N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 10.5N 135.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 9.8N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 8.8N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.9N 89.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 12.9N 89.3W WEAK
12UTC 06.10.2018 13.5N 91.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.2N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.3N 94.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.2N 94.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 16.7N 94.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 18.8N 94.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.5N 91.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 13.5N 91.4W WEAK
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.2N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.3N 94.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.2N 94.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 16.7N 94.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 18.8N 94.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040359


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 040254 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST WED OCT 03 2018

WALAKA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR, UP TO 47 KT AT 0000 UTC FROM UW-CIMSS. THE EYE IS NO
LONGER VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAS A VERY LOPSIDED
APPEARANCE IN THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BARELY COVERING THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN FACT, RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM
HIMAWARI-8 SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED, AS THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS OCCASIONALLY PUSHED
EVEN FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SIGNALS A WEAKENING TREND, WHICH
HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 110 KT, FOLLOWING THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 5.5/102 KT FROM ALL THREE FIX AGENCIES. THIS AGREES
WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE UW-CIMSS ADT OF 5.8/110 KT.

WALAKA HAS CONTINUED ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY OF 020/19
KT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER (LLCC) POSSIBLY LAGGING BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FORWARD
SPEED CORRECTION WITH A GOOD MICROWAVE DATA PASS OR IF THE LLCC DOES
FINALLY BECOME MORE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS
FOR STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
WALAKA TRANSITS AND EXITS THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT. A DECELERATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
WALAKA INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP CUTOFF COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE TO ITS


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 040254
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

Walaka continues to show the effects of strong southwesterly
vertical shear, up to 47 kt at 0000 UTC from UW-CIMSS. The eye is no
longer visible in satellite imagery and has a very lopsided
appearance in the cirrus outflow, which is barely covering the low
level center of circulation. In fact, recent visible imagery from
Himawari-8 shows what appears to be the southwest edge of the low
level circulation center becoming partially exposed, as the
southwest edge of the central dense overcast has occasionally pushed
even further to the northeast. This signals a weakening trend, which
has continued through the afternoon hours. The current intensity has
been lowered to 110 kt, following the downward trend in the Dvorak
estimates of 5.5/102 kt from all three fix agencies. This agrees
with the latest available UW-CIMSS ADT of 5.8/110 kt.

Walaka has continued accelerating toward the north-northeast
this afternoon, with an initial motion for this advisory of 020/19
kt. With the low level cloud center (LLCC) possibly lagging behind
the upper level cloud features, the potential exists for a forward
speed correction with a good microwave data pass or if the LLCC does
finally become more visible on satellite. For now, the forecast is
for steady north-northeast motion overnight into early Thursday as
Walaka transits and exits the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument. A deceleration is expected Thursday night and Friday as
Walaka interacts with the deep cutoff cold core low pressure to its
north. Slight track forecast adjustments were made in the Friday
time frame toward the model consensus, which has trended further
west as it slows down during the interaction with the cold core low.
Late Friday, another mid latitude trough moving along in the
westerlies picks up Walaka and accelerates it off to the northeast
Saturday, as it becomes extratropical.

With continued strong vertical wind shear into Thursday and waters
dropping to 27 degrees C late tonight, Walaka will likely experience
a more rapid weakening trend in intensity tonight and Thursday,
dropping below major hurricane status within 12 hours. By later
Thursday, the vertical wind shear is expected to relax, but
weakening is forecast to continue due to cooler SSTs in the 24 to
25 degree C range. The intensity forecast reflects the current
trends and closely follows the statistical and consensus dynamical
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 23.1N 167.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 25.9N 167.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 29.2N 167.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 31.3N 167.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 34.0N 165.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 44.0N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brenchley


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 040240 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST WED OCT 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA NOW MOVING INTO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 167.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA STARTING TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.9 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. WALAKA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF WALAKA WILL CROSS THE


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 040240
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA NOW MOVING INTO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 167.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are expected
in portions of the warning area starting tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are imminent or occurring within the warning area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 167.9 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. Walaka is forecast to turn toward the
north with a slower forward speed Thursday and Thursday night. On
this forecast track, the center of Walaka will cross the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between French Frigate
Shoals and Gardner Pinnacles tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is forecast to continue
through Friday. However, Walaka will remain a powerful and
life-threatening hurricane as it crosses the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are now spreading across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Necker Island to
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef, with hurricane conditions
expected over the area from French Frigate Shoals to Gardner
Pinnacles tonight.

SURF: Large surf will continue to impact the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument through early Thursday morning. These large
waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls, especially
from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall will continue to across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brenchley



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 040239 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 167.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 167.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 168.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.9N 167.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.2N 167.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 040239
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 167.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 167.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 168.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.9N 167.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.2N 167.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.3N 167.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 34.0N 165.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 44.0N 158.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 167.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENCHLEY




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 040002 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
200 PM HST WED OCT 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA NOW MOVING INTO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 168.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.0 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WALAKA IS FORECAST TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF WALAKA WILL CROSS THE


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 040002
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
200 PM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA NOW MOVING INTO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 168.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are expected
in the warning area starting tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are imminent or occurring within the warning area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 168.0 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion
is expected to continue through tonight. Walaka is forecast to turn
toward the north with a slower forward speed Thursday and Thursday
night. On this forecast track, the center of Walaka will cross the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between French Frigate
Shoals and Gardner Pinnacles tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A continued weakening trend is forecast
tonight and expected to continue through Friday. However, Walaka
will remain a powerful and life-threatening hurricane as it
crosses the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (355 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are starting to spread across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef this afternoon, with hurricane
conditions expected over portions of the area between French Frigate
Shoals and Maro Reef tonight.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect
Johnston Atoll through this afternoon. Large surf will impact the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through early Thursday
morning. These large waves will likely inundate some of the
low-lying atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro
Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall will continue to spread across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brenchley



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 032101 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST WED OCT 03 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WALAKA APPARENTLY FEELING THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DEEP CONVECTION ON
THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL HAS NARROWED, AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BEING ERODED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ELONGATING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 120 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND THE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS. THESE RANGE FROM 5.5/102 KT FROM SAB TO
7.0/140 KT FROM JTWC TO 6.6/130 KT FROM THE ADT.

WALAKA HAS CONTINUED ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING, AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 020/19
KT. WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING A BIT MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF STEERING FLOW AROUND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
ONCE THE HURRICANE GETS CLOSER TO THIS EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO, WITH ONLY MINOR NORTHWARD CHANGES IN THE
TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY, DUE TO FASTER MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM.
BEYOND FRIDAY, WALAKA GETS PICKED UP BY A TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN
THE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL BY SUNDAY.

RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS CONTINUED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF UP TO 35 KT COMBINE WITH SST DROPPING
BELOW 27 DEGREES C. LATER ON THURSDAY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
RELAXES, BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO COOLER SSTS. AS


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 032101
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

Satellite imagery shows Walaka apparently feeling the effects of
increasing vertical wind shear. The deep convection on
the west and southwestern eyewall has narrowed, and the upper level
cirrus outflow is being eroded to the southwest and elongating off
to the northeast. The current intensity is held at 120 kt for this
advisory based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates
and the ADT from UW-CIMSS. These range from 5.5/102 kt from SAB to
7.0/140 kt from JTWC to 6.6/130 kt from the ADT.

Walaka has continued accelerating toward the north-northeast
this morning, and the initial motion for this advisory is 020/19
kt. Walaka is expected to continue accelerating a bit more toward
the north-northeast into tonight as it remains under the influence
of steering flow around a deep low pressure system to the north.
Once the hurricane gets closer to this extratropical low pressure
feature, it is expected to slow considerably. There is good
agreement in this scenario, with only minor northward changes in the
track through Friday, due to faster motion in the short term.
Beyond Friday, Walaka gets picked up by a trough moving along in
the westerlies and accelerates off to the northeast, becoming
extratropical by Sunday.

Rapid weakening is forecast tonight and Thursday as continued
vertical wind shear values of up to 35 kt combine with SST dropping
below 27 degrees C. Later on Thursday, the vertical wind shear
relaxes, but continued weakening is expected due to cooler SSTs. As
Walaka gets picked up in the westerlies, a slow weakening is
forecast as it transitions to extratropical status. The intensity
forecast is near the stronger statistical guidance, SHIPS, and
higher resolution dynamical guidance, HWRF/HMON, and represents a
compromise between the stronger GFS/ECMWF and much weaker HCCA and
LGEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 21.4N 168.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.2N 167.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 27.9N 167.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 30.5N 167.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 32.4N 166.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 40.0N 160.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 51.5N 149.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brenchley


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 032040 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST WED OCT 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA MOVING INTO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 168.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.5 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WALAKA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 032040
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA MOVING INTO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 168.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are expected
in the warning area starting tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are expected within the warning area starting this afternoon.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Walaka was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 168.5 West. Walaka is
moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
motion with a faster forward speed is expected through tonight.
Walaka is forecast to turn toward the north with a slower forward
speed Thursday and Thursday night. On this forecast track, the
center of Walaka will cross the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument between French Frigate Shoals and Gardner
Pinnacles tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is forecast today and
expected to continue through Friday. However, Walaka will
likely remain a powerful and life-threatening hurricane as it
crosses the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected to start spreading
across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef this afternoon, with
hurricane conditions expected over portions of the area between
French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef tonight.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect
Johnston Atoll today. Large surf will impact the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument through early Thursday morning. These
large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls,
especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall will begin to spread across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef later today, and continue through
tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brenchley



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 032038 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 168.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 330SW 380NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 168.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 168.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.2N 167.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.9N 167.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 032038
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 168.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 330SW 380NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 168.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 168.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.2N 167.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.9N 167.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.5N 167.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.4N 166.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 40.0N 160.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 51.5N 149.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 168.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENCHLEY




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 031758 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
800 AM HST WED OCT 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA RACING TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 168.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM W OF HONOLULU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.8 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WALAKA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 031758
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
800 AM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA RACING TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 168.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM W OF HONOLULU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are expected
in the warning area starting later today or tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are expected within the warning area starting later today or
tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 168.8 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion with a faster forward speed is expected through tonight.
Walaka is forecast to turn toward the north with a slower forward
speed Thursday and Thursday night. On this forecast track, the
center of Walaka will reach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is
possible starting later today. A faster weakening trend is forecast
starting tonight, and continuing through Thursday night. However,
Walaka will likely remain a powerful and life-threatening hurricane
as it crosses the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected to start spreading
across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef this afternoon, with
hurricane conditions expected over portions of the area between
French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef starting later today or tonight.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect
Johnston Atoll today. Large surf will impact the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument through early Thursday morning. These
large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls,
especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall will begin to spread across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef later today, and continue through
tonight. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Walaka will continue to
move across Johnston Atoll this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brenchley/Kodama



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 031523 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST WED OCT 03 2018

WALAKA'S EYE BECAME MUCH MORE DISTINCT OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE
CLOUD TOPS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EYEWALL. NOTE THAT IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE NARROW. THIS MAY BE DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF WALAKA. PRIOR TO THIS, SOME OF THE
SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES SHOWED INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 6.5/127 KT FROM JTWC, 6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO, AND
5.5/102 KT FROM SAB. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 7.0/140
KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, WE HAVE INCREASED WALAKA'S
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

WALAKA HAS BEEN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT,
AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 015/15 KT. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM IS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A VERTICALLY-STACKED
LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 32N 170W. THEREFORE, WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.
ONCE THE HURRICANE GETS CLOSER TO THIS EXTRATROPICAL FEATURE, THE
TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES ITS FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW DURING THE 24
TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
A BRIEF BEND IN THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY
RAPID ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 56.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2018 0 29.5N 56.9W 976 57
0000UTC 04.10.2018 12 30.1N 57.2W 965 70
1200UTC 04.10.2018 24 31.4N 57.0W 954 70
0000UTC 05.10.2018 36 34.2N 57.2W 954 67
1200UTC 05.10.2018 48 36.4N 57.8W 959 61
0000UTC 06.10.2018 60 37.4N 57.7W 960 66
1200UTC 06.10.2018 72 37.8N 56.9W 958 69
0000UTC 07.10.2018 84 37.6N 55.1W 958 66
1200UTC 07.10.2018 96 37.0N 53.5W 960 63
0000UTC 08.10.2018 108 36.7N 51.3W 967 56
1200UTC 08.10.2018 120 35.5N 49.8W 973 54
0000UTC 09.10.2018 132 33.8N 48.6W 976 50
1200UTC 09.10.2018 144 31.7N 48.5W 977 53

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2018 0 12.5N 117.0W 945 81
0000UTC 04.10.2018 12 13.6N 118.6W 952 75
1200UTC 04.10.2018 24 14.7N 120.0W 955 73
0000UTC 05.10.2018 36 15.7N 121.2W 948 80
1200UTC 05.10.2018 48 16.3N 122.2W 946 81
0000UTC 06.10.2018 60 16.4N 123.3W 944 80
1200UTC 06.10.2018 72 16.1N 124.7W 940 82
0000UTC 07.10.2018 84 16.0N 126.1W 944 76
1200UTC 07.10.2018 96 15.8N 127.8W 949 72
0000UTC 08.10.2018 108 15.9N 129.4W 954 69
1200UTC 08.10.2018 120 16.1N 130.6W 960 66
0000UTC 09.10.2018 132 16.6N 131.2W 959 70
1200UTC 09.10.2018 144 16.9N 131.3W 958 68

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 170.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2018 0 18.6N 170.0W 975 63
0000UTC 04.10.2018 12 21.8N 168.4W 958 78
1200UTC 04.10.2018 24 26.0N 166.4W 961 85
0000UTC 05.10.2018 36 29.8N 167.6W 975 52
1200UTC 05.10.2018 48 31.1N 168.8W 982 51
0000UTC 06.10.2018 60 31.6N 167.3W 988 44
1200UTC 06.10.2018 72 34.0N 165.0W 995 40
0000UTC 07.10.2018 84 38.7N 161.7W 997 43
1200UTC 07.10.2018 96 45.5N 156.5W 1005 37
0000UTC 08.10.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 36.1N 27.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2018 12 36.1N 27.2W 1013 21
1200UTC 04.10.2018 24 36.1N 25.8W 1013 21
0000UTC 05.10.2018 36 36.3N 24.0W 1012 23
1200UTC 05.10.2018 48 36.5N 22.7W 1009 29
0000UTC 06.10.2018 60 36.9N 21.5W 1009 35
1200UTC 06.10.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 28.8N 33.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2018 36 28.8N 33.5W 1014 23
1200UTC 05.10.2018 48 28.2N 32.2W 1012 25
0000UTC 06.10.2018 60 27.2N 30.4W 1011 24
1200UTC 06.10.2018 72 26.6N 27.5W 1008 31
0000UTC 07.10.2018 84 27.8N 25.1W 1009 26
1200UTC 07.10.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.4N 89.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 60 13.0N 90.2W 1004 37
1200UTC 06.10.2018 72 13.4N 92.6W 1000 41
0000UTC 07.10.2018 84 13.8N 94.7W 998 41
1200UTC 07.10.2018 96 14.4N 95.7W 988 51
0000UTC 08.10.2018 108 15.3N 96.2W 972 70
1200UTC 08.10.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031559


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 031559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 56.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2018 29.5N 56.9W STRONG
00UTC 04.10.2018 30.1N 57.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 31.4N 57.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 34.2N 57.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 36.4N 57.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 37.4N 57.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 37.8N 56.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 37.6N 55.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 37.0N 53.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 36.7N 51.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 35.5N 49.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.8N 48.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.7N 48.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2018 12.5N 117.0W INTENSE
00UTC 04.10.2018 13.6N 118.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 14.7N 120.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 15.7N 121.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 16.3N 122.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 16.4N 123.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 16.1N 124.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 16.0N 126.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 15.8N 127.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.9N 129.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 16.1N 130.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 16.6N 131.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 16.9N 131.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 170.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.6N 170.0W STRONG
00UTC 04.10.2018 21.8N 168.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 26.0N 166.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 29.8N 167.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 31.1N 168.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 31.6N 167.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 34.0N 165.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 38.7N 161.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 45.5N 156.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 36.1N 27.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2018 36.1N 27.2W WEAK
12UTC 04.10.2018 36.1N 25.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 36.3N 24.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 36.5N 22.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 36.9N 21.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 28.8N 33.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2018 28.8N 33.5W WEAK
12UTC 05.10.2018 28.2N 32.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 27.2N 30.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 26.6N 27.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 27.8N 25.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.4N 89.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 13.0N 90.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 13.4N 92.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 13.8N 94.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.4N 95.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.3N 96.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031559


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 031523
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 16...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

Walaka's eye became much more distinct overnight. In addition, the
cloud tops cooled significantly in the eyewall. Note that in the
last couple of hours, the northwestern eyewall is beginning to show
some signs of becoming more narrow. This may be due to increasing
vertical wind shear, as well interaction with an upper-level trough
located to the northwest of Walaka. Prior to this, some of the
satellite fix agencies showed intensification occurred early this
morning. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates were 6.5/127 kt from JTWC, 6.0/115 kt from PHFO, and
5.5/102 kt from SAB. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was 7.0/140
kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, we have increased Walaka's
initial intensity to 120 kt for this advisory.

Walaka has been accelerating toward the north-northeast overnight,
and the initial motion for this advisory is 015/15 kt. The primary
steering mechanism is the circulation around a vertically-stacked
low pressure area near 32N 170W. Therefore, Walaka is expected to
continue accelerating toward the north-northeast into tonight.
Once the hurricane gets closer to this extratropical feature, the
track guidance indicates its forward motion will slow during the 24
to 48 hour time period. The latest track forecast continues to show
a brief bend in the track toward the north-northwest, followed by
rapid acceleration toward the northeast between 48 and 96 hours. The
track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement considering the
rather complex interaction between Walaka and the extratropical low.
This latest track forecast is very close to the previous advisory
package through 36 hours, except for some minor increase in forward
motion. The track was adjusted to the left around 48 hours to more
closely follow the consensus guidance, which appears to be in
general agreement in regards to the interaction with the low. There
was little change in the track from the previous advisory during the
72 to 120 hour time periods.

As the vertical wind shear near Walaka becomes increasingly hostile
during the next 24 to 36 hours, steady weakening is forecast.
Although the shear diminishes somewhat by 36 hours, the tropical
cyclone will begin moving over increasingly cool sea surface
temperatures and reduced ocean heat content. There is some
uncertainty about how Walaka's interaction with the extratropical
low will affect its intensity. The global models seem to be in good
agreement that some semblance of a warm core system will remain
after Walaka interaction with the extratropical low. Therefore, the
current forecast maintains Walaka as a tropical cyclone through 72
hours. However, it would not be surprising if the system becomes
extratropical sooner. The latest intensity forecast shows a slower
rate of weakening than most of the dynamical models. It is in best
agreement with the ECMWF and GFS output. The current intensity
forecast is showing a somewhat faster weakening trend beyond 36
hours compared with the previous advisory package.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.6N 169.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 22.2N 168.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 25.9N 167.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 29.0N 167.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 30.7N 167.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 35.0N 163.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 44.5N 155.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z 53.0N 143.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 031500 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST WED OCT 03 2018

WALAKA'S EYE BECAME MUCH MORE DISTINCT OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE
CLOUD TOPS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EYEWALL. NOTE THAT IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE NARROW. THIS MAY BE DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF WALAKA. PRIOR TO THIS, SOME OF THE
SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES SHOWED INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 6.5/127 KT FROM JTWC, 6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO, AND
5.5/102 KT FROM SAB. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 7.0/140
KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, WE HAVE INCREASED WALAKA'S
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

WALAKA HAS BEEN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT,
AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 015/15 KT. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM IS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A VERTICALLY-STACKED
LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 32N 170W. THEREFORE, WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.
ONCE THE HURRICANE GETS CLOSER TO THIS EXTRATROPICAL FEATURE, THE
TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES ITS FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW DURING THE 24
TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
A BRIEF BEND IN THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY
RAPID ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 48 AND 96
HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 031500
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

Walaka's eye became much more distinct overnight. In addition, the
cloud tops cooled significantly in the eyewall. Note that in the
last couple of hours, the northwestern eyewall is beginning to show
some signs of becoming more narrow. This may be due to increasing
vertical wind shear, as well interaction with an upper-level trough
located to the northwest of Walaka. Prior to this, some of the
satellite fix agencies showed intensification occurred early this
morning. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates were 6.5/127 kt from JTWC, 6.0/115 kt from PHFO, and
5.5/102 kt from SAB. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was 7.0/140
kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, we have increased Walaka's
initial intensity to 120 kt for this advisory.

Walaka has been accelerating toward the north-northeast overnight,
and the initial motion for this advisory is 015/15 kt. The primary
steering mechanism is the circulation around a vertically-stacked
low pressure area near 32N 170W. Therefore, Walaka is expected to
continue accelerating toward the north-northeast into tonight.
Once the hurricane gets closer to this extratropical feature, the
track guidance indicates its forward motion will slow during the 24
to 48 hour time period. The latest track forecast continues to show
a brief bend in the track toward the north-northwest, followed by
rapid acceleration toward the northeastward between 48 and 96
hours. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement
considering the rather complex interaction between Walaka and the
extratropical low. This latest track forecast is very close to the
previous advisory package through 36 hours, except for some minor
increaese in forward motion. The track was adjusted to the left
around 48 hours to more closely follow the consensus guidance, which
appears to be in general agreement in regards to the interaction
with the low. There was little change in the track from the previous
advisory during the 72 to 120 hour time periods.

As the vertical wind shear near Walaka becomes increasingly hostile
during the next 24 to 36 hours, steady weakening is forecast.
Although the shear diminishes somewhat beyond 36 hours, the tropical
cyclone will begin moving over increasingly cool sea surface
temperatures and reduced ocean heat content. There is some
uncertainty about how Walaka's interaction with the extratropical
low will affect its intensity. The global models seem to be in good
agreement that some semblance of a warm core system will remain
after Walaka interaction with the extratropical low. Therefore, the
current forecast maintains Walaka as a tropical cyclone through 72
hours. However, it would not be surprising if the system becomes
extratropical sooner. The latest intensity forecast shows a slower
rate of weakening than most of the dynamical models. It is in best
agreement with the ECMWF and GFS output. The current intensity
forecast is showing a somewhat faster weakening trend beyond 36
hours compared with the previous advisory package.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.6N 169.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 22.2N 168.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 25.9N 167.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 29.0N 167.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 30.7N 167.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 35.0N 163.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 44.5N 155.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z 53.0N 143.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 031451 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST WED OCT 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA RACING TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 169.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM N OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 169.4 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 031451
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA RACING TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 169.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM N OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Johnston Atoll has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are expected
in the warning area starting later today or tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are expected within the warning area starting later today or
tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 169.4 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a faster forward speed is expected through tonight.
Walaka is forecast to turn toward the north with a slower forward
speed Thursday and Thursday night. On this forecast track, the
center of Walaka will likely reach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is
possible starting later today. A faster weakening trend is forecast
starting tonight, and continuing through Thursday night. However,
Walaka will likely remain a powerful and life-threatening hurricane
as it crosses the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected to start spreading
across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef by this afternoon, with
hurricane conditions expected over portions of the area between
French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef starting later today or tonight.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect
Johnston Atoll today. Large surf will impact the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument through early Thursday morning. These
large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls,
especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall will begin to spread across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef later today, and continue through
tonight. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Walaka will continue to
move across Johnston Atoll this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 031444 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 169.4W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 169.4W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 169.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.2N 168.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 90SW 130NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 031444
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 169.4W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 169.4W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 169.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.2N 168.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.9N 167.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 35SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.0N 167.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.7N 167.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.0N 163.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 44.5N 155.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 53.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 169.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 031146 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
200 AM HST WED OCT 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTH TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
....JOHNSTON ATOLL REMAINS IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF WALAKA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 169.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM N OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA STARTING LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 169.8 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH (23 KM/H), AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD MOTION LATER TODAY


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 031146
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
200 AM HST Wed Oct 03 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTH TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...JOHNSTON ATOLL REMAINS IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF WALAKA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 169.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM N OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are expected
in the warning area starting later today or tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are expected within the warning area starting later today or
tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 169.8 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (23 km/h), and it is expected to turn
toward the north-northeast with a faster forward motion later today
and tonight. Walaka is forecast to turn toward the north with a
slower forward speed starting Thursday. On this forecast track, the
center of Walaka will likely reach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 140 mph (225 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is
possible starting from today or tonight through Thursday, but Walaka
is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane when it crosses the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will persist on Johnston Atoll this
morning, with conditions gradually improving later today. Tropical
storm force winds are expected across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef
beginning this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected over
portions of the area between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef
starting later today or tonight.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect
Johnston Atoll today. Large surf will likely begin to impact the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument in a few hours. These
large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls,
especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Atoll this morning, and will likely begin to
spread across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef later today, and
continue through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 030937 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

WALAKA'S EYE REMAINS SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A 0528Z SSMS PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW A
WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A COMPLETE EYEWALL. THE DEGRADATION
OF THE SYSTEM IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LIKELY THE
RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND
PHFO WERE 6.0/115 KT AND 5.5/102 KT FROM SAB. THE UW-CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATE WAS ALSO 6.0/115 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES, WE WILL
MAINTAIN WALAKA'S INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 005/11 KT. WALAKA IS BEING
STEERED TOWARDS A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 31N
170W. WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE OUTER CIRCULATION ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEEP LOW. ONCE WALAKA
GETS CLOSER TO THIS EXTRATROPICAL FEATURE, THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INDICATES ITS FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME.
IT MAY MAKE A BRIEF BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, THEN TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS AS THE CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN WALAKA
AND THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR WALAKA BECOMES INCREASINGLY HOSTILE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 030937
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 15...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

Walaka's eye remains somewhat ragged in infrared satellite imagery
early this evening. However, a 0528Z SSMS pass continued to show a
well defined eye surrounded by a complete eyewall. The degradation
of the system in conventional satellite imagery is likely the
result of increasing vertical wind shear from the southwest. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from JTWC and
PHFO were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt from SAB. The UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate was also 6.0/115 kt. Based on these estimates, we will
maintain Walaka's initial intensity at 115 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 005/11 kt. Walaka is being
steered towards a vertically-stacked low pressure area near 31N
170W. Walaka is expected to soon begin accelerating toward the
north-northeast as it gets caught up in the outer circulation along
the southeastern and eastern periphery of this deep low. Once Walaka
gets closer to this extratropical feature, the track guidance
indicates its forward motion will slow in the 36 to 48 hour time.
It may make a brief bend back toward the north-northwest, then track
rapidly northeastward between 72 and 96 hours as the circulation
becomes more shallow. The track guidance remains in remarkably good
agreement considering the rather complex interaction between Walaka
and the extratropical low. This latest track forecast is very close
to the previous advisory package.

As the vertical wind shear near Walaka becomes increasingly hostile
during the next 24 to 36 hours, steady weakening is forecast.
Although the shear diminishes somewhat beyond 36 hours, the tropical
cyclone will begin moving over increasingly cool sea surface
temperatures and reduced ocean heat content. There is some
uncertainty about how Walaka's interaction with the extratropical
low will affect its intensity. The global models seem to be in good
agreement that some semblance of a warm core system will remain
after Walaka interaction with the extratropical low. Therefore, the
current forecast maintains Walaka as a tropical cyclone through 96
hours. It would not be surprising if the system becomes
extratropical sooner. The latest intensity forecast shows a slower
rate of weakening than most of the dynamical models, which is in
best agreement with the ECMWF through 48 hours, then aligns with the
SHIPS guidance afterward. The current intensity forecast is also
very close to the previous advisory package.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.1N 170.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.4N 169.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.9N 167.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.5N 167.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 29.9N 167.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 33.5N 165.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 41.5N 158.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 51.0N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 030905 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

WALAKA'S EYE REMAINS SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A 0528Z SSMS PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW A
WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A COMPLETE EYEWALL. THE DEGRADATION
OF THE SYSTEM IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LIKELY THE
RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND
PHFO WERE 6.0/115 KT AND 5.5/102 KT FROM SAB. THE UW-CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATE WAS ALSO 6.0/115 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES, WE WILL
MAINTAIN WALAKA'S INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 005/11 KT. WALAKA IS BEING
STEERED TOWARDS A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 31N
170W. WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE OUTER CIRCULATION ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEEP LOW. ONCE WALAKA
GETS CLOSER TO THIS EXTRATROPICAL FEATURE, THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INDICATES ITS FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME.
IT MAY MAKE A BRIEF BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, THEN TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS AS THE CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN WALAKA
AND THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS LATEST TRACK FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR WALAKA BECOMES INCREASINGLY HOSTILE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 030905
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

Walaka's eye remains somewhat ragged in infrared satellite imagery
early this evening. However, a 0528Z SSMS pass continued to show a
well defined eye surrounded by a complete eyewall. The degradation
of the system in conventional satellite imagery is likely the
result of increasing vertical wind shear from the southwest. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from JTWC and
PHFO were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt from SAB. The UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate was also 6.0/115 kt. Based on these estimates, we will
maintain Walaka's initial intensity at 115 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 005/11 kt. Walaka is being
steered towards a vertically-stacked low pressure area near 31N
170W. Walaka is expected to soon begin accelerating toward the
north-northeast as it gets caught up in the outer circulation along
the southeastern and eastern periphery of this deep low. Once Walaka
gets closer to this extratropical feature, the track guidance
indicates its forward motion will slow in the 36 to 48 hour time.
It may make a brief bend back toward the north-northwest, then track
rapidly northeastward between 72 and 96 hours as the circulation
becomes more shallow. The track guidance remains in remarkably good
agreement considering the rather complex interaction between Walaka
and the extratropical low. This latest track forecast track is very
close to the previous advisory package.

As the vertical wind shear near Walaka becomes increasingly hostile
during the next 24 to 36 hours, steady weakening is forecast.
Although the shear diminishes somewhat beyond 36 hours, the tropical
cyclone will begin moving over increasingly cool sea surface
temperatures and reduced ocean heat content. There is some
uncertainty about how Walaka's interaction with the extratropical
low will affect its intensity. The global models seem to be in good
agreement that some semblance of a warm core system will remain
after Walaka interaction with the extratropical low. Therefore, the
current forecast maintains Walaka as a tropical cyclone through 96
hours. It would not be surprising if the system becomes
extratropical sooner. The latest intensity forecast shows a slower
rate of weakening than most of the dynamical models, which is in
best agreement with the ECMWF through 48 hours, then aligns with the
SHIPS guidance afterward. The current intensity forecast is also
very close to the previous advisory package.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.1N 170.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.4N 169.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.9N 167.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.5N 167.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 29.9N 167.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 33.5N 165.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 41.5N 158.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 51.0N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 030849 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

...DANGEROUS WALAKA MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
....HURRICANE CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR JOHNSTON ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 170.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.0 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD
MOTION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WALAKA IS FORECAST TO TURN


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 030849
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

...DANGEROUS WALAKA MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR JOHNSTON ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 170.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 170.0 West. Walaka is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to turn toward the north-northeast with a faster forward
motion Wednesday and Wednesday night. Walaka is forecast to turn
toward the north with a slower forward speed starting Thursday. On
this track, the center of Walaka will likely reach the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is
expected through Thursday, but Walaka is forecast to remain a
hurricane as it passes across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will persist on Johnston Atoll through
early Wednesday morning, with conditions gradually improving during
the day on Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds are expected
across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning Wednesday afternoon,
with hurricane conditions expected over portions of the area
between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef Wednesday night.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect
Johnston Atoll through Wednesday. Large surf will affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning early
Wednesday. These large waves will likely inundate some of the
low-lying atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro
Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Atoll through early Wednesday, and will reach the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef starting Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 030846 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 170.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 170.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 170.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N 169.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.9N 167.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 030846
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 170.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 170.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 170.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N 169.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.9N 167.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N 167.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.9N 167.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.5N 165.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 41.5N 158.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 51.0N 146.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 170.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 030549 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
800 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

...DANGEROUS WALAKA MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
....JOHNSTON ATOLL REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL THIS
EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 170.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.2 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 030549
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
800 PM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

...DANGEROUS WALAKA MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...JOHNSTON ATOLL REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL THIS
EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 170.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 170.2 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with a faster forward motion is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is expected over the
next few days, but Walaka is forecast to remain a hurricane as it
passes across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument late
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will persist on Johnston Atoll tonight,
with conditions gradually improving during the day on Wednesday.
Tropical storm force winds are expected across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning Wednesday afternoon, with
hurricane conditions expected over portions of the area between
French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef Wednesday night.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect
Johnston Atoll through Wednesday. Large surf will affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning early
Wednesday. These large waves will likely inundate some of the
low-lying atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro
Reef.

RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Atoll through early Wednesday, and will reach the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef starting Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 030332 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

WALAKA'S EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND CIMSS-ADT UNANIMOUS AT 6.0. THUS, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE
THESE RECENT TRENDS, A 0151 UTC SSMI PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL-
DEVELOPED EYEWALL, AND THERE ARE WELL-DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. OUTFLOW IS MUCH MORE
RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11, AS WALAKA MOVES GENERALLY
TOWARD A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 31N 170W. WALAKA
IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LOW. AS WALAKA BEGINS TO GET TANGLED UP WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL
FEATURE, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER WILL DRAMATICALLY SLOW IT'S
FORWARD MOTION IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME AND MAY TAKE A BRIEF
BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, THEN KICK NORTHEAST RAPIDLY
AGAIN AT 96 HOURS AND BEYOND AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN WALAKA AND THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW, AND THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WALAKA WILL BE COMING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR RELATIVELY SOON. THE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT GREATER THAN 30 KT BY 36 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 030332
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 14...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

Walaka's eye has become less distinct in conventional satellite
imagery over the last couple of hours, with subjective intensity
estimates and CIMSS-ADT unanimous at 6.0. Thus, the current
intensity has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory. Despite
these recent trends, a 0151 UTC SSMI pass continued to show a well-
developed eyewall, and there are well-developed outflow channels to
the northeast and southeast of the hurricane. Outflow is much more
restricted in the western semicircle.

The initial motion estimate is 010/11, as Walaka moves generally
toward a vertically-stacked low pressure area near 31N 170W. Walaka
is expected to soon begin accelerating toward the north-northeast
as it gets caught up in the warm conveyor belt on the east side of
the low. As Walaka begins to get tangled up with this extratropical
feature, the guidance shows the center will dramatically slow it's
forward motion in the 48 to 72 hour time frame and may take a brief
bend back toward the north-northwest, then kick northeast rapidly
again at 96 hours and beyond as the circulation becomes more
shallow. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement
considering the rather complex interaction between Walaka and the
extratropical low, and this forecast track is similar to the
previous advisory package.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that Walaka will be coming under
the influence of moderate to strong shear relatively soon. The shear
is expected to peak at greater than 30 kt by 36 hours, which should
continue the weakening trend. Although the shear diminishes beyond
36 hours, the cyclone will begin moving over increasingly cool sea
surface temperatures. There is some uncertainty as to how Walaka's
interaction with the extratropical low will play out. The global
models seem to be in good agreement that some semblance of a warm
core will remain even afterward, and so the forecast maintains
Walaka as a tropical cyclone through 96 hours. It would not be
surprising if the system becomes extratropical sooner, however. The
forecast shows a slower rate of weakening than most of the dynamical
models, in best agreement with the ECMWF through 48 hours, then
aligns with SHIPS guidance afterward.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 16.7N 170.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.7N 169.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.9N 168.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 25.5N 167.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 28.9N 167.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 32.0N 166.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 38.7N 160.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 46.8N 152.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 56.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2018 0 29.9N 56.5W 985 50
1200UTC 03.10.2018 12 29.7N 57.2W 981 54
0000UTC 04.10.2018 24 29.8N 57.6W 972 58
1200UTC 04.10.2018 36 31.8N 57.1W 961 68
0000UTC 05.10.2018 48 34.4N 57.4W 955 69
1200UTC 05.10.2018 60 36.5N 58.1W 961 58
0000UTC 06.10.2018 72 37.5N 58.2W 961 63
1200UTC 06.10.2018 84 37.8N 58.1W 959 75
0000UTC 07.10.2018 96 37.6N 56.7W 961 71
1200UTC 07.10.2018 108 37.6N 55.1W 959 68
0000UTC 08.10.2018 120 37.4N 51.9W 960 65
1200UTC 08.10.2018 132 36.2N 49.5W 967 57
0000UTC 09.10.2018 144 33.8N 48.3W 972 62

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 115.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2018 0 11.3N 115.6W 958 78
1200UTC 03.10.2018 12 12.2N 117.2W 956 74
0000UTC 04.10.2018 24 13.3N 118.6W 962 70
1200UTC 04.10.2018 36 14.5N 120.0W 964 66
0000UTC 05.10.2018 48 15.4N 121.6W 959 75
1200UTC 05.10.2018 60 15.9N 122.9W 962 68
0000UTC 06.10.2018 72 16.1N 124.0W 953 72
1200UTC 06.10.2018 84 16.2N 125.4W 945 75
0000UTC 07.10.2018 96 16.2N 126.8W 949 76
1200UTC 07.10.2018 108 16.3N 128.5W 955 69
0000UTC 08.10.2018 120 16.6N 130.1W 960 62
1200UTC 08.10.2018 132 17.1N 131.5W 962 62
0000UTC 09.10.2018 144 18.1N 132.6W 964 65

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 170.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2018 0 16.0N 170.4W 977 58
1200UTC 03.10.2018 12 18.5N 169.9W 968 67
0000UTC 04.10.2018 24 21.9N 168.2W 946 87
1200UTC 04.10.2018 36 25.8N 166.4W 956 85
0000UTC 05.10.2018 48 29.4N 167.6W 967 59
1200UTC 05.10.2018 60 30.5N 168.8W 977 56
0000UTC 06.10.2018 72 30.8N 168.2W 987 45
1200UTC 06.10.2018 84 32.0N 166.2W 994 36
0000UTC 07.10.2018 96 36.1N 163.6W 993 41
1200UTC 07.10.2018 108 42.5N 159.5W 995 44
0000UTC 08.10.2018 120 51.4N 154.2W 999 35
1200UTC 08.10.2018 132 54.7N 149.3W 996 45
0000UTC 09.10.2018 144 53.8N 141.6W 1001 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 30.5N 38.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2018 24 30.5N 38.4W 1013 27
1200UTC 04.10.2018 36 29.5N 37.0W 1014 23
0000UTC 05.10.2018 48 28.5N 34.9W 1014 22
1200UTC 05.10.2018 60 27.8N 33.4W 1014 24
0000UTC 06.10.2018 72 26.2N 32.9W 1013 25
1200UTC 06.10.2018 84 25.2N 31.6W 1013 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 96 24.3N 30.7W 1013 22
1200UTC 07.10.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.7N 90.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 72 12.7N 90.7W 1004 36
1200UTC 06.10.2018 84 13.0N 92.6W 1000 41
0000UTC 07.10.2018 96 14.0N 94.5W 995 47
1200UTC 07.10.2018 108 14.3N 95.6W 988 51
0000UTC 08.10.2018 120 15.0N 96.3W 972 67
1200UTC 08.10.2018 132 15.9N 97.1W 1000 31
0000UTC 09.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030358


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 56.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2018 29.9N 56.5W MODERATE
12UTC 03.10.2018 29.7N 57.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 29.8N 57.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 31.8N 57.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 34.4N 57.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 36.5N 58.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 37.5N 58.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 37.8N 58.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 37.6N 56.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 37.6N 55.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 37.4N 51.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 36.2N 49.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.8N 48.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 115.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2018 11.3N 115.6W INTENSE
12UTC 03.10.2018 12.2N 117.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 13.3N 118.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 14.5N 120.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 15.4N 121.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 15.9N 122.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 16.1N 124.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 16.2N 125.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 16.2N 126.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 16.3N 128.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 16.6N 130.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 17.1N 131.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 18.1N 132.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 170.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.0N 170.4W STRONG
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.5N 169.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 21.9N 168.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 25.8N 166.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 29.4N 167.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 30.5N 168.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 30.8N 168.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 32.0N 166.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 36.1N 163.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 42.5N 159.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 51.4N 154.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 54.7N 149.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 53.8N 141.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 30.5N 38.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2018 30.5N 38.4W WEAK
12UTC 04.10.2018 29.5N 37.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 28.5N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 27.8N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 26.2N 32.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 25.2N 31.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 24.3N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.7N 90.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 12.7N 90.7W WEAK
12UTC 06.10.2018 13.0N 92.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.0N 94.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.3N 95.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 15.0N 96.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 15.9N 97.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030358


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 030319 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

WALAKA'S EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND CIMSS-ADT UNANIMOUS AT 6.0. THUS, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE
THESE RECENT TRENDS, A 0151 UTC SSMI PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL-
DEVELOPED EYEWALL, AND THERE ARE WELL-DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. OUTFLOW IS MUCH MORE
RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11, AS WALAKA MOVES GENERALLY
TOWARD A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 31N 170W. WALAKA
IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AS
IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW. AS WALAKA BEGINS TO GET TANGLED UP WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL
FEATURE, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER WILL DRAMATICALLY SLOW IT'S
FORWARD MOTION IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME AND MAY TAKE A BRIEF
BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, THEN KICK NORTHEAST RAPIDLY
AGAIN AT 96 HOURS AND BEYOND AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN WALAKA AND THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW, AND THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WALAKA WILL BE COMING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR RELATIVELY SOON. THE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT GREATER THAN 30 KT BY 36 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 030319
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

Walaka's eye has become less distinct in conventional satellite
imagery over the last couple of hours, with subjective intensity
estimates and CIMSS-ADT unanimous at 6.0. Thus, the current
intensity has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory. Despite
these recent trends, a 0151 UTC SSMI pass continued to show a well-
developed eyewall, and there are well-developed outflow channels to
the northeast and southeast of the hurricane. Outflow is much more
restricted in the western semicircle.

The initial motion estimate is 010/11, as Walaka moves generally
toward a vertically-stacked low pressure area near 31N 170W. Walaka
is expected to soon begin accelerating toward the north-northeast
as
it gets caught up in the warm conveyor belt on the east side of the
low. As Walaka begins to get tangled up with this extratropical
feature, the guidance shows the center will dramatically slow it's
forward motion in the 48 to 72 hour time frame and may take a brief
bend back toward the north-northwest, then kick northeast rapidly
again at 96 hours and beyond as the circulation becomes more
shallow. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement
considering the rather complex interaction between Walaka and the
extratropical low, and this forecast track is similar to the
previous advisory package.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that Walaka will be coming under
the influence of moderate to strong shear relatively soon. The shear
is expected to peak at greater than 30 kt by 36 hours, which should
continue the weakening trend. Although the shear diminishes beyond
36 hours, the cyclone will begin moving over increasingly cool sea
surface temperatures. There is some uncertainty as to how Walaka's
interaction with the extratropical low will play out. The global
models seem to be in good agreement that some semblance of a warm
core will remain even afterward, and so the forecast maintains
Walaka as a tropical cyclone through 96 hours. It would not be
surprising if the system becomes extratropical sooner, however. The
forecast shows a slower rate of weakening than most of the dynamical
models, in best agreement with the ECMWF through 48 hours, then
aligns with SHIPS guidance afterward.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 16.7N 170.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.7N 169.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.9N 168.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 25.5N 167.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 28.9N 167.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 32.0N 166.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 38.7N 160.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 46.8N 152.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 030248 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

...WALAKA MOVING NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING...
....CENTER PASSING JUST WEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 170.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 560 MI...895 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.2 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 030248
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

...WALAKA MOVING NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...CENTER PASSING JUST WEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 170.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 560 MI...895 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 170.2 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with a faster forward motion is expected over the
next couple of days. The eye of Walaka is passing about 45 miles
west of Johnston Atoll early this evening, and on the forecast
track, the center will pass between French Frigate Shoals and
Gardner Pinnacles Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected over the next few days,
but Walaka is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Johnston Atoll tonight,
with conditions gradually improving by Wednesday morning. Tropical
storm force winds are expected across the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro
Reef beginning Wednesday afternoon, with hurricane conditions
expected over portions of the area Wednesday night.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect
Johnston Atoll through Wednesday. Large surf will affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Atoll through early Wednesday, and will reach the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 030239 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 170.2W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 250SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 170.2W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 170.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 169.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.9N 168.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 030239
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 170.2W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 250SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 170.2W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 170.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 169.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.9N 168.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.5N 167.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.9N 167.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 166.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 38.7N 160.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 46.8N 152.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 170.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BALLARD




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 030003 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
200 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

...EYE OF WALAKA ONLY 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL
AND WILL PASS NEARBY TO THE WEST OF THE ATOLL THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 170.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.2 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 030003
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
200 PM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

...EYE OF WALAKA ONLY 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL
AND WILL PASS NEARBY TO THE WEST OF THE ATOLL THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 170.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 170.2 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night with a steady increase
in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Walaka is
expected to pass just to the west of Johnston Atoll early this
evening, then across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument on Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is expected through tonight,
with rapid weakening forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions expected to begin soon on Johnston
Atoll, continuing through this evening. Tropical storm force winds
are expected across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning late
Wednesday, with hurricane conditions expected over portions of the
area Wednesday night.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect the
Johnston Atoll through Wednesday. Large surf will affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Atoll through early Wednesday, and will reach the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 022105 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

MORNING VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWING WALAKA
HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE HAS
BECOME LESS DISTINCT WITH A CLOUDS APPARENTLY PARTIALLY COVERING THE
EYE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN THE EYEWALL AND SURROUNDING
CONVECTIVE RING, AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STARTED TO FOLLOW
THIS WEAKENING TREND WHICH BEGAN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT INTENSITIES
RANGE FROM 6.0 AT SAB TO 6.5 AT PHFO AND JTWC. HAVE CONSERVATIVELY
LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 130 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS
SATCON ESTIMATES AS OF 1528 UTC WERE AT 132 KNOTS, WITH A VERY SLOW
WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM AS WALAKA APPEARS TO BE COMPLETING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BASED ON EARLIER COMPOSITE MICROWAVE DATA
OVERNIGHT. A SOLID ASCAT PASS FROM 0816 UTC WAS USEFUL TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII, AND AN ALTIMETER PASS AIDED IN
ADJUSTING THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII.

THE INITIAL MOTION WAS SET AT 355/09 KNOTS, AS WALAKA CONTINUES TO
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME ACCELERATION AS THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WALAKA STEERING CURRENTS INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WALAKA SLOWS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH
REMAINS CUTOFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALOFT. BY EARLY
SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH PICKS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UP
AND SHIFTS IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 022105
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

Morning visible and infrared satellite imagery trends showing Walaka
has degraded somewhat over the past several hours. The eye has
become less distinct with a clouds apparently partially covering the
eye. Cloud tops have warmed in the eyewall and surrounding
convective ring, and Dvorak intensity estimates started to follow
this weakening trend which began overnight. Current intensities
range from 6.0 at SAB to 6.5 at PHFO and JTWC. Have conservatively
lowered the initial intensity to 130 kt for this forecast cycle as
Satcon estimates as of 1528 UTC were at 132 knots, with a very slow
weakening in the short term as Walaka appears to be completing an
eyewall replacement cycle based on earlier composite microwave data
overnight. A solid ASCAT pass from 0816 UTC was useful to make minor
adjustments to the wind radii, and an altimeter pass aided in
adjusting the 12 foot seas radii.

The initial motion was set at 355/09 knots, as Walaka continues to
be drawn northward by the deep low pressure system to the north.
This motion is expected to continue over the next day or two with
some acceleration as the influence of this low pressure over the
Walaka steering currents increases. By Thursday and Friday,
Walaka slows as it interacts with the mid latitude trough which
remains cutoff from the mid latitude westerlies aloft. By early
Saturday, another sharp upper trough picks the tropical cyclone up
and shifts it off to the northeast through the weekend, resulting in
accelerating northeastward motion. Overall, the track guidance
envelope remains fairly tightly clustered through Friday, with some
variations on how quickly Walaka gets picked up by the westerlies
over the weekend. The official forecast stays very close to the
previous advisory and is only slightly nudged towards HCCA and ECMWF
beyond Friday.

Although experiencing a weakening trend since last night, the
environment surrounding Walaka remains somewhat conducive for
intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours. The tropical
cyclone will remain within a deep moist airmass with low vertical
wind shear, high ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures
near 29 or 30 degrees C. The forecast shows continued weakening in
the short term, due to current trends, then steady intensity
tonight through early Wednesday, as this period has the potential
for another round of intensity fluctuations within aforementioned
conducive conditions. Between 24 and 48 hours, vertical wind
shear increases dramatically due to interaction with the upper
level jet around the deep low to the north, resulting in steady
and rapid weakening of Walaka especially Thursday and Friday.
Weakening trend relaxes Saturday and Sunday as Walaka accelerates
to the northeast and transitions to an extratropical cyclone. The
official forecast follows the SHIPS and dynamical intensity
consensus through the 5 day forecast, except holds the intensity up
through the first 24 hours owing to potential fluctuations.

The forecast track will take Walaka near Johnston Island later
today, with hurricane conditions expected this afternoon and this
evening. Therefore a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for this
location. The forecast track also takes the hurricane across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between French Frigate
Shoals and Maro Reef late Wednesday, therefore, a Hurricane
Warning has been issued for this area. A Tropical Storm Warning
has been issued east of French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa as
tropical storm conditions are expected to reach that area late
Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.6N 170.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.4N 169.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 20.5N 169.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 23.9N 167.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 27.0N 167.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 31.0N 167.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 35.3N 162.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 44.6N 154.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brenchley


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 022047 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WALAKA HEADING NORTHWARD TOWARD JOHNSTON
ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 170.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 022047
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WALAKA HEADING NORTHWARD TOWARD JOHNSTON
ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 170.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 170.1 West. Walaka is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday night with a steady
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Walaka is expected to pass just to the west of Johnston later
today, then across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument on Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is expected through tonight,
with rapid weakening forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are already occurring across
Johnston Atoll, with hurricane conditions expected to begin this
afternoon and last through this evening. Tropical storm force winds
are expected across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning late
Wednesday, with hurricane conditions expected over portions of the
area Wednesday night.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect the
Johnston Atoll through Wednesday. Large surf will affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Atoll through early Wednesday, and will reach the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brenchley



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 022046 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 170.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 135SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 250SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 170.1W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 170.1W


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 022046
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 170.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 135SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 250SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 170.1W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 170.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.4N 169.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 135SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 169.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 75SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.9N 167.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 75SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.0N 167.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 75SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.0N 167.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 35.3N 162.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 44.6N 154.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 170.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENCHLEY




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 021802 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
800 AM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

...WALAKA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 170.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ATOLL
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.1 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF WALAKA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF JOHNSTON LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 021802
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
800 AM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

...WALAKA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON ATOLL...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 170.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ATOLL
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 170.1 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night with a steady increase
in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Walaka is
expected to pass just to the west of Johnston later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected through
tonight, with rapid weakening expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.52 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are already occurring across
Johnston Island, with hurricane conditions expected to begin this
afternoon and last through this evening. Tropical storm force winds
are possible across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning late
Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible Wednesday night.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect the
Johnston Island reefs and shorelines through Wednesday. Large surf
will affect the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Island through early Wednesday, and may reach
rainfall may reach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef late tonight or
Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe



Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 56.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2018 0 31.0N 56.0W 987 43
0000UTC 03.10.2018 12 30.0N 56.5W 984 54
1200UTC 03.10.2018 24 29.4N 57.1W 978 56
0000UTC 04.10.2018 36 29.8N 57.2W 967 58
1200UTC 04.10.2018 48 31.5N 57.2W 957 71
0000UTC 05.10.2018 60 33.9N 57.2W 951 68
1200UTC 05.10.2018 72 35.9N 58.0W 956 63
0000UTC 06.10.2018 84 36.4N 58.1W 958 62
1200UTC 06.10.2018 96 36.6N 57.7W 960 66
0000UTC 07.10.2018 108 36.4N 56.9W 960 68
1200UTC 07.10.2018 120 36.9N 55.3W 960 64
0000UTC 08.10.2018 132 36.9N 52.5W 959 63
1200UTC 08.10.2018 144 35.8N 50.3W 966 58

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 114.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2018 0 30.1N 114.0W 1005 34
0000UTC 03.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 113.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2018 0 10.1N 113.7W 977 56
0000UTC 03.10.2018 12 11.2N 115.5W 971 70
1200UTC 03.10.2018 24 12.1N 117.3W 968 68
0000UTC 04.10.2018 36 13.1N 118.6W 965 67
1200UTC 04.10.2018 48 14.4N 120.0W 964 68
0000UTC 05.10.2018 60 15.3N 121.8W 964 67
1200UTC 05.10.2018 72 15.6N 123.5W 967 64
0000UTC 06.10.2018 84 15.8N 124.7W 954 71
1200UTC 06.10.2018 96 15.8N 126.2W 955 69
0000UTC 07.10.2018 108 15.9N 127.6W 957 67
1200UTC 07.10.2018 120 16.1N 129.0W 956 65
0000UTC 08.10.2018 132 16.8N 130.3W 960 63
1200UTC 08.10.2018 144 17.5N 131.5W 960 66

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 170.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2018 0 14.0N 170.4W 977 59
0000UTC 03.10.2018 12 15.6N 170.6W 975 62
1200UTC 03.10.2018 24 18.2N 169.9W 963 72
0000UTC 04.10.2018 36 21.4N 168.4W 946 89
1200UTC 04.10.2018 48 25.0N 166.6W 953 87
0000UTC 05.10.2018 60 28.8N 167.5W 966 60
1200UTC 05.10.2018 72 30.2N 168.8W 977 55
0000UTC 06.10.2018 84 30.9N 168.2W 986 46
1200UTC 06.10.2018 96 32.8N 166.2W 992 43
0000UTC 07.10.2018 108 38.6N 162.7W 987 49
1200UTC 07.10.2018 120 46.3N 157.3W 996 43
0000UTC 08.10.2018 132 52.8N 152.8W 994 42
1200UTC 08.10.2018 144 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.1N 95.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 108 14.1N 95.0W 1004 36
1200UTC 07.10.2018 120 14.2N 95.9W 1000 36
0000UTC 08.10.2018 132 14.7N 96.4W 991 50
1200UTC 08.10.2018 144 15.9N 96.5W 994 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 32.9N 28.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 108 32.9N 28.4W 1011 34
1200UTC 07.10.2018 120 31.1N 29.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 08.10.2018 132 30.3N 29.3W 1013 20
1200UTC 08.10.2018 144 30.0N 30.2W 1014 20


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021558


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 56.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.0N 56.0W MODERATE
00UTC 03.10.2018 30.0N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 29.4N 57.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 29.8N 57.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 31.5N 57.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 33.9N 57.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 35.9N 58.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 36.4N 58.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 36.6N 57.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 36.4N 56.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.9N 55.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 36.9N 52.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 35.8N 50.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 114.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2018 30.1N 114.0W WEAK
00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 113.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2018 10.1N 113.7W STRONG
00UTC 03.10.2018 11.2N 115.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 12.1N 117.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 13.1N 118.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 14.4N 120.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 15.3N 121.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 15.6N 123.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 15.8N 124.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 15.8N 126.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 15.9N 127.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 16.1N 129.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 16.8N 130.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 17.5N 131.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 170.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2018 14.0N 170.4W STRONG
00UTC 03.10.2018 15.6N 170.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.2N 169.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 21.4N 168.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 25.0N 166.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 28.8N 167.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 30.2N 168.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 30.9N 168.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 32.8N 166.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 38.6N 162.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 46.3N 157.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 52.8N 152.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.1N 95.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.1N 95.0W WEAK
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.2N 95.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 14.7N 96.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 15.9N 96.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 32.9N 28.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2018 32.9N 28.4W WEAK
12UTC 07.10.2018 31.1N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 30.3N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 30.0N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021558


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 021518 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WALAKA WHICH WAS BEING DEGRADED BY AN
EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVERNIGHT, HAS JUST BEGUN TO IMPROVE WITH
A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ONCE AGAIN ENCIRCLE THE
WELL DEFINED EYE, WHICH COULD BE A SIGN THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE IS GETTING READY TO COMPLETE. THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PHFO, SAB, JTWC WERE 6.5 (127 KNOTS) WHILE THE ADT HELD AT 6.6
(130 KNOTS). BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIKELY HOLDING THE INTENSITY OF
WALAKA TOO LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON, HAVE ONLY REDUCED THE INITIAL
INTENSITY SLIGHTLY WITH THIS ADVISORY TO 135 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
MOTION WAS SET AT 350/09 KNOTS.

A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 30N 170W
WILL DRAW WALAKA NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BEFORE
ANOTHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC PICKS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UP AND SHIFTS IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE REMAINS FAIRLY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS FAIRLY
WELL ALIGNED WITH THE LATEST GFEX, TVCN, HCCA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING WALAKA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN WITHIN A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 84 TO
86 FAHRENHEIT. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD LEAD TO SOME


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 021518
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

The satellite presentation of Walaka which was being degraded by an
eye wall replacement cycle overnight, has just begun to improve with
a ring of deep convection beginning to once again encircle the
well defined eye, which could be a sign that the eyewall replacement
cycle is getting ready to complete. The latest intensity estimates
from PHFO, SAB, JTWC were 6.5 (127 knots) while the ADT held at 6.6
(130 knots). Based on constraints likely holding the intensity of
Walaka too low Monday afternoon, have only reduced the initial
intensity slightly with this advisory to 135 knots. The initial
motion was set at 350/09 knots.

A deep north Pacific upper level low in the vicinity of 30N 170W
will draw Walaka northward over the next several days, before
another sharp upper trough shifting across the north Pacific picks
the tropical cyclone up and shifts it off to the northeast Friday
night and Saturday. Overall the guidance envelope remains fairly
tightly clustered through the forecast period. The official forecast
remains very close to that of the previous advisory and is fairly
well aligned with the latest GFEX, TVCN, HCCA consensus guidance.

The environment surrounding Walaka remains conducive for additional
intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will
remain within a deep moist airmass with low vertical wind shear,
high ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures between 84 to
86 Fahrenheit. Eyewall replacement cycles could lead to some
fluctuations in intensity through this time frame, so the intensity
forecast shows little intensity change through 24 hours. Beyond 24
hours, the combination of increasing vertical wind shear, drier
mid-level air entraining into the cyclone, sea surface temperatures
becoming marginal and even unfavorable, along with interaction with
the deep upper level low should result in steady and even rapid
weakening of Walaka. As a result, the intensity forecast calls for
Walaka to begin weakening on Wednesday, with rapid weakening then
continuing through the end of the forecast period. The official
intensity forecast was adjusted downward slightly, but remains above
all guidance through 36 hours before trending closer to a blend of
the statistical and dynamical models thereafter. Walaka is expected
to become an post-tropical/extra-tropical low by 120 hours.

The forecast track will take Walaka near Johnston Island later
today, with hurricane conditions expected this afternoon and this
evening. Therefore a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for this
location. The forecast track also takes the hurricane across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between French Frigate
Shoals and Laysan Island late Wednesday. Therefore, a Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the region from Nihoa to Maro Reef.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.7N 170.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.2N 170.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.9N 169.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 22.3N 168.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.2N 167.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 30.5N 168.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 33.0N 164.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 41.0N 157.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 021510 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

...WALAKA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 170.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.0 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF WALAKA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF JOHNSTON LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 021510
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

...WALAKA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 170.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 170.0 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night with a steady increase
in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Walaka is
expected to pass just to the west of Johnston later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected
through tonight, with rapid weakening expected Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are already occurring across
Johnston Island, with hurricane conditions expected to begin this
afternoon and last through this evening. Tropical storm force winds
are possible across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning late
Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible Wednesday night.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect the
Johnston Island reefs and shorelines through Wednesday. Large surf
will affect the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Island through early Wednesday, and may reach
rainfall may reach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef late tonight or
Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 021453 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

...WALAKA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 170.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.0 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF WALAKA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF JOHNSTON LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 021453
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

...WALAKA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 170.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 170.0 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night with a steady increase
in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Walaka is
expected to pass just to the west of Johnston later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected
through tonight, with rapid weakening expected Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are already occurring across
Johnston Island, with hurricane conditions expected to begin this
afternoon and last through this evening. Tropical storm force winds
are possible across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning late
Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible Wednesday night.

SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect the
Johnston Island reefs and shorelines through Wednesday. Large surf
will affect the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef beginning early
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Island through early Wednesday, and may reach
rainfall may reach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef late tonight or
Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 021453 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 170.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 50SE 50SW 55NW.
34 KT.......160NE 110SE 75SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 250SE 320SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 170.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 170.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 170.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 75SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 169.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 75SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.3N 168.4W


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 021453
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 170.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 50SE 50SW 55NW.
34 KT.......160NE 110SE 75SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 250SE 320SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 170.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 170.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 170.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 75SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 169.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 75SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.3N 168.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 75SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.2N 167.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 75SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.5N 168.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 164.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 157.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 170.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 021152 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
200 AM HST TUE OCT 02 2018

...WALAKA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD
JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 170.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.1 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF JOHNSTON
ISLAND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H) WITH HIGHER


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 021152
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
200 AM HST Tue Oct 02 2018

...WALAKA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD
JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 170.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 170.1 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected later tonight with an increase in forward speed
expected Tuesday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Walaka is expected to pass just to the west of Johnston
Island on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected through
Tuesday, with a weakening trend expected to begin late Tuesday night
or early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting late tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by
Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will continue to affect the Johnston Island reefs
and shorelines through Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Island through early Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 020917 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST MON OCT 01 2018

WALAKA CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WARM WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A
RING OF -65 TO -85C CLOUD TOPS. THE PRESENTATION IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF AN IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST HOUR. THE MOST RECENT MORPHED MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM UW-
CIMSS INDICATES THAT WALAKA MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, SO THE DOWN TREND SEEN IN THE OVERALL SATELLITE
PRESENTATION THAT BEGAN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAY ONLY BE
TEMPORARY. THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO, SAB, JTWC ALL
CAME IN AT 6.5 (127 KNOTS) WHILE ADT WAS 6.8 (135 KNOTS). GIVEN
SEVERAL SATELLITE IMAGES MONDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 02/00Z SHOWING T
NUMBERS OF 7.0 (140 KNOTS), AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ONGOING, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 140
KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION WAS SET AT 330/07 KNOTS.

A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 30N 170W
WILL DRAW WALAKA NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BEFORE
ANOTHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC PICKS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UP AND SHIFTS IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THAT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE GFEX,
TVCN, HCCA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING WALAKA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 020917
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

Walaka continues to display a warm well defined eye surrounded by a
ring of -65 to -85C cloud tops. The presentation in geostationary
satellite imagery has changed very little since the previous
advisory, with perhaps a bit of an improvement in organization over
the past hour. The most recent morphed microwave imagery from UW-
CIMSS indicates that Walaka may be going through an eyewall
replacement cycle, so the down trend seen in the overall satellite
presentation that began late Monday afternoon, may only be
temporary. The latest intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, JTWC all
came in at 6.5 (127 knots) while ADT was 6.8 (135 knots). Given
several satellite images Monday afternoon around 02/00Z showing T
numbers of 7.0 (140 knots), and the likelihood that an eyewall
replacement cycle is ongoing, the initial intensity was held at 140
knots for this advisory. The initial motion was set at 330/07 knots.

A deep north Pacific upper level low in the vicinity of 30N 170W
will draw Walaka northward over the next several days, before
another sharp upper trough shifting across the north Pacific picks
the tropical cyclone up and shifts it off to the northeast. Overall
the guidance envelope remains fairly tightly clustered through the
forecast period. The official forecast remains very close to that
of the previous advisory and remains closely aligned with the GFEX,
TVCN, HCCA consensus guidance.

The environment surrounding Walaka remains conducive for additional
intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. The tropical
cyclone will remain within a deep moist airmass, with low vertical
wind shear, and sea surface temperatures between 84 to 86
Fahrenheit. Eyewall replacement cycles will likely lead to
fluctuation in intensity through this time frame, so the intensity
forecast shows little intensity change through 36 hours. Beyond 36
hours, vertical wind shear will increase, drier mid-level air will
begin to get wrapped into the cyclone, while sea surface
temperatures become marginal and even unfavorable. As a result,
Walaka should begin to weaken on Wednesday, with rapid weakening
then expected through the end of the forecast period. The official
forecast was not changed much from the previous advisory, and
remains above all guidance through 36 hours and then trends closer
to a blend of the statistical and dynamical models thereafter.

The forecast track will take Walaka near Johnston Island on
Tuesday, so the Hurricane Warning remains in effect for this
location. The forecast track also takes the hurricane across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between French Frigate
Shoals and Laysan Island late Wednesday. Thus, a Hurricane Watch
remains in effect for the region from Nihoa to Maro Reef.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.7N 170.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.1N 170.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.3N 170.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 20.2N 169.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 23.5N 168.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 29.8N 167.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 32.5N 164.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 40.2N 157.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 020837 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST MON OCT 01 2018

...WALAKA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD
JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 170.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.0 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF
JOHNSTON ISLAND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H) WITH HIGHER


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 020837
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

...WALAKA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD
JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 170.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 170.0 West. Walaka is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later tonight with an increase in
forward speed expected Tuesday through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Walaka is expected to pass just to the west of
Johnston Island on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected
through Tuesday, with a weakening trend expected to begin late
Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting late tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by
Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will continue to affect the Johnston Island reefs
and shorelines through Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka will continue
across Johnston Island through early Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 020837 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 170.0W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 170.0W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 169.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 170.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.3N 170.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 020837
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 170.0W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 170.0W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 169.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 170.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.3N 170.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 169.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 70SE 50SW 55NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.5N 168.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.8N 167.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 32.5N 164.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 40.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 170.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 020553 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
800 PM HST MON OCT 01 2018

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WALAKA HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 169.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 169.8 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF WALAKA IS


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 020553
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
800 PM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WALAKA HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 169.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 169.8 West. Walaka is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected later tonight through Tuesday with a gradual increase in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Walaka is
expected to pass just to the west of Johnston Island on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected tonight before
Walaka starts a weakening trend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected by Tuesday
afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Island reefs and
shorelines starting later today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka is expected to reach
Johnston Island Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 54.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2018 0 32.5N 54.9W 988 45
1200UTC 02.10.2018 12 31.1N 56.0W 984 48
0000UTC 03.10.2018 24 29.8N 56.5W 979 56
1200UTC 03.10.2018 36 29.7N 57.0W 972 58
0000UTC 04.10.2018 48 30.2N 57.2W 964 57
1200UTC 04.10.2018 60 31.6N 57.2W 956 65
0000UTC 05.10.2018 72 34.4N 57.0W 951 68
1200UTC 05.10.2018 84 36.5N 57.4W 954 64
0000UTC 06.10.2018 96 37.0N 57.2W 952 68
1200UTC 06.10.2018 108 37.2N 56.5W 953 73
0000UTC 07.10.2018 120 37.0N 55.1W 951 68
1200UTC 07.10.2018 132 37.2N 53.2W 960 60
0000UTC 08.10.2018 144 36.8N 50.2W 967 56

TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 115.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2018 0 28.4N 115.7W 1001 27
1200UTC 02.10.2018 12 31.4N 114.1W 1006 27
0000UTC 03.10.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 111.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2018 0 10.6N 111.8W 980 53
1200UTC 02.10.2018 12 10.7N 114.0W 976 57
0000UTC 03.10.2018 24 11.3N 116.2W 970 72
1200UTC 03.10.2018 36 12.1N 118.1W 966 76
0000UTC 04.10.2018 48 13.3N 119.5W 967 65
1200UTC 04.10.2018 60 14.5N 121.4W 968 62
0000UTC 05.10.2018 72 15.3N 123.0W 964 62
1200UTC 05.10.2018 84 16.1N 124.5W 964 68
0000UTC 06.10.2018 96 16.8N 126.1W 952 71
1200UTC 06.10.2018 108 17.4N 128.1W 958 77
0000UTC 07.10.2018 120 17.7N 129.9W 967 66
1200UTC 07.10.2018 132 18.0N 131.7W 973 61
0000UTC 08.10.2018 144 18.7N 133.0W 983 51

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 169.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2018 0 12.8N 169.7W 975 61
1200UTC 02.10.2018 12 13.9N 170.1W 973 62
0000UTC 03.10.2018 24 15.8N 170.2W 969 64
1200UTC 03.10.2018 36 18.4N 169.7W 955 75
0000UTC 04.10.2018 48 21.3N 168.3W 942 91
1200UTC 04.10.2018 60 24.5N 166.3W 944 85
0000UTC 05.10.2018 72 28.0N 167.3W 962 63
1200UTC 05.10.2018 84 28.2N 169.2W 972 62
0000UTC 06.10.2018 96 28.3N 168.5W 980 48
1200UTC 06.10.2018 108 28.8N 167.4W 990 40
0000UTC 07.10.2018 120 29.9N 165.0W 994 35
1200UTC 07.10.2018 132 32.5N 162.9W 998 36
0000UTC 08.10.2018 144 36.6N 160.6W 1000 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.6N 93.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 108 13.6N 93.3W 1005 38
0000UTC 07.10.2018 120 14.3N 95.2W 1000 40
1200UTC 07.10.2018 132 14.7N 96.1W 990 54
0000UTC 08.10.2018 144 16.4N 97.0W 997 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020359


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 020359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 54.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2018 32.5N 54.9W MODERATE
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.1N 56.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 29.8N 56.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 29.7N 57.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 30.2N 57.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 31.6N 57.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 34.4N 57.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 36.5N 57.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 37.0N 57.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 37.2N 56.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 37.0N 55.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 37.2N 53.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 36.8N 50.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 115.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2018 28.4N 115.7W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.4N 114.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 111.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2018 10.6N 111.8W STRONG
12UTC 02.10.2018 10.7N 114.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 11.3N 116.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 12.1N 118.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 13.3N 119.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 14.5N 121.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 15.3N 123.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 16.1N 124.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 16.8N 126.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 17.4N 128.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 17.7N 129.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 18.0N 131.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 18.7N 133.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 169.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2018 12.8N 169.7W STRONG
12UTC 02.10.2018 13.9N 170.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 15.8N 170.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.4N 169.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 21.3N 168.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 24.5N 166.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 28.0N 167.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 28.2N 169.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 28.3N 168.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 28.8N 167.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 29.9N 165.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 32.5N 162.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 36.6N 160.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.6N 93.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 13.6N 93.3W WEAK
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.3N 95.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.7N 96.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 16.4N 97.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020359


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 020248 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST MON OCT 01 2018

RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SHOWED THAT CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE
HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT STILL FORM A
SOLID RING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE -70 TO -76C RANGE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 6.5/127KT FROM PHFO AND SAB. UW/CIMSS
ADT DATA INDICATED 7.0/140KT AT 0000 UTC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS 140 KT AS A NOD TO THE ADT VALUE, SINCE THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN CONSTRAINED BY FIX RULES. OF
ADDITIONAL INTEREST, MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE NOAA-18 1949 UTC AND
METOP-B AT 2108 UTC SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OUTER EYEWALL,
WHICH INDICATES HURRICANE WALAKA IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2107 UTC CAUGHT THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF WALAKA'S CIRCULATION, WHICH RESULTED IN THE EXPANSION
OF THE 34 KT RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF WALAKA IS 310/6 KT AS IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NORTH OF WALAKA IS IN THE PROCESS OF ALTERING THE STEERING
CURRENT, CAUSING THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 48 HOURS.
WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
HCCA CONSENSUS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 36 HOURS.

WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER WALAKA EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 020248
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

Recent infrared images showed that cloud tops surrounding the eye
have warmed somewhat since early this morning, but still form a
solid ring with temperatures in the -70 to -76C range. Dvorak
intensity estimates came in at 6.5/127kt from PHFO and SAB. UW/CIMSS
ADT data indicated 7.0/140kt at 0000 UTC. The current intensity for
this advisory is 140 kt as a nod to the ADT value, since the
subjective Dvorak estimates have been constrained by fix rules. Of
additional interest, microwave data from the NOAA-18 1949 UTC and
METOP-B at 2108 UTC showed the development of an outer eyewall,
which indicates Hurricane Walaka is going through an eyewall
replacement cycle. An ASCAT pass from 2107 UTC caught the eastern
semicircle of Walaka's circulation, which resulted in the expansion
of the 34 kt radii in the northeast quadrant.

The initial motion of Walaka is 310/6 kt as it rounds the
southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge. A deepening low pressure
system north of Walaka is in the process of altering the steering
current, causing the hurricane to turn toward the north. The
numerical models are in good agreement with the scenario and the
track guidance is tightly packed, especially through 48 hours.
Walaka is expected to accelerate northward under the
influence of the low Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast
track for this advisory is close to the previous forecast and the
HCCA consensus, especially through 36 hours.

With sea surface temperatures under Walaka expected to remain near
30C through tonight, high ocean heat content, and low vertical wind
shear, there is still a window for additional strengthening tonight.
However, eyewall replacement cycles will result in intensity
fluctuations, which are difficult to forecast. SHIPS guidance
indicates strengthening to 153 kt while the dynamical models show
peak intensities below 145 kt. The forecast maintains slight
intensification tonight, followed by a gradual weakening through 48
hours. This is consistent with HCCA. Beyond 48 hours, increasing
vertical wind shear, followed by a track over sub-26.5C waters will
result in more rapid weakening through 120 hours. The forecast
drops Walaka below hurricane strength after 96 hours, which is
a less aggressive weakening than all objective aids.

The forecast track will take Walaka near Johnston Island on Tuesday,
so the Hurricane Warning remains in effect for this location. The
forecast track also takes the hurricane across the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument between French Frigate Shoals and Laysan
Island late Wednesday. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the region from Nihoa to Maro Reef.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 13.2N 169.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.4N 170.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 16.3N 170.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.9N 170.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 22.2N 168.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 28.4N 167.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 31.5N 166.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 37.0N 161.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kodama


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 020243 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST MON OCT 01 2018

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WALAKA HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 169.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 169.8 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ON


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 020243
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WALAKA HEADING TOWARD JOHNSTON
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 169.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 169.8 West. Walaka is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight through Tuesday with a gradual
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Walaka is expected to pass just to the west of Johnston Island on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected tonight
before Walaka starts a weakening trend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected by Tuesday
afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Island reefs and
shorelines starting later today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka is expected to reach
Johnston Island Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kodama



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 020238 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 169.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 300SE 220SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 169.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 169.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.4N 170.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.3N 170.6W


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 020238
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 169.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 300SE 220SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 169.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 169.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.4N 170.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.3N 170.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 170.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.2N 168.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.4N 167.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 31.5N 166.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 37.0N 161.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 169.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 012348 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
200 PM HST MON OCT 01 2018

...HURRICANE WALAKA REACHES CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 169.6W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 169.6 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H) WITH HIGHER


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 012348
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
200 PM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

...HURRICANE WALAKA REACHES CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 169.6W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 169.6 West. Walaka is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected late tonight through Tuesday with a gradual
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Walaka is expected to pass just to the west of Johnston Island on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected through
early Tuesday before Walaka starts a gradual weakening trend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (300 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting late tonight or early Tuesday, with hurricane conditions
expected by Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Island reefs and
shorelines starting later today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka is expected to reach
Johnston Atoll late today or tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kodama



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 012107 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST MON OCT 01 2018

HURRICANE WALAKA IS AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A 20 NM WIDE
CLEAR EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE RING OF -70 TO -76C CLOUD TOPS
WITH EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. BANDING
FEATURES ARE ALSO PRESENT THOUGH NOT AS WELL-FORMED AS EARLY
THIS MORNING. INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO
AND JTWC, AND 6.5/127 KT FROM SAB. ADT WAS 6.7/132 KT AT 1800 UTC.
GIVEN THE OVERALL APPEARANCE AND INTENSIFICATION TREND, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY LEANS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE ESTIMATES
AT 130 KT.

WALAKA IS MOVING AT 305/9 KT AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND CAUSE
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 72 HOURS. WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
ESSENTIALLY A REFRESH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE
HCCA CONSENSUS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 72 HOURS.

RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING SINCE LAST NIGHT. WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER WALAKA EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 30C
THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REACHED. SHIPS FORECASTS 147 KT FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS SO THE FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 012107
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

Hurricane Walaka is an impressive tropical cyclone. A 20 nm wide
clear eye is surrounded by a large ring of -70 to -76C cloud tops
with excellent upper level outflow in all quadrants. Banding
features are also present though not as well-formed as early
this morning. Intensity estimates came in at 6.0/115 kt from PHFO
and JTWC, and 6.5/127 kt from SAB. ADT was 6.7/132 kt at 1800 UTC.
Given the overall appearance and intensification trend, the initial
intensity for this advisory leans on the higher end of the estimates
at 130 kt.

Walaka is moving at 305/9 kt as it rounds the southwestern flank of
a subtropical ridge. A developing low pressure system is expected to
produce a break in the ridge to the north of the hurricane and cause
a turn toward the north on Tuesday. The numerical models are in
agreement with the scenario and the track guidance is tightly
packed, especially through 72 hours. Walaka is expected to
accelerate toward the north under the influence of the low on
Wednesday and into Thursday. The forecast track for this advisory is
essentially a refresh of the previous forecast and is close to the
HCCA consensus, especially through 72 hours.

Rapid intensification has been occurring since last night. With sea
surface temperatures under Walaka expected to remain near 30C
through tonight, high ocean heat content, and low vertical wind
shear, there is no reason to believe that peak intensity has been
reached. SHIPS forecasts 147 kt from 18 to 24 hours so the forecast
calls for a peak intensity of 145 kt tonight before starting a
weakening trend. This will put Walaka in Category 5 territory on
the Saffir-Simpson scale and exceeds the maximum intensity achieved
by Hurricane Ioke in 2006.

The forecast track will take Walaka near Johnston Island on Tuesday
and the Hurricane Warning remains in effect for this location. The
northeastward track after Tuesday is also expected to take the
hurricane across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
between French Frigate Shoals and Laysan Island on Thursday, and a
Hurricane Watch may be needed for these locations later today or
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.9N 169.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 14.0N 170.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.6N 170.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.7N 170.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.7N 169.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 27.1N 167.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 31.0N 167.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 35.0N 163.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kodama


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 012040 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST MON OCT 01 2018

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WALAKA STILL INTENSIFYING FAR SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 169.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 169.3 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 012040
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WALAKA STILL INTENSIFYING FAR SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 169.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Walaka was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 169.3 West. Walaka is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected late tonight through Tuesday with a gradual
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Walaka is expected to pass just to the west of Johnston Island on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected through
early Tuesday before Walaka starts a gradual weakening trend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting late tonight or early Tuesday, with hurricane conditions
expected by Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Island reefs and
shorelines starting later today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka is expected to reach
Johnston Atoll late today or tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kodama



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 012036 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 169.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 160SE 200SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 169.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 168.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.0N 170.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.6N 170.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 012036
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 169.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 160SE 200SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 169.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 168.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.0N 170.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.6N 170.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.7N 170.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.7N 169.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.1N 167.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.0N 167.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 35.0N 163.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 169.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 011756 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
800 AM HST MON OCT 01 2018

...WALAKA REACHES CATEGORY 4 STATUS FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 168.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.9 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH (235 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WALAKA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 011756
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
800 AM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

...WALAKA REACHES CATEGORY 4 STATUS FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 168.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 168.9 West. Walaka is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn
toward the north late tonight through Tuesday night with a gradual
increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (235 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid intensification is expected to continue
today into tonight, with little change in intensity forecast Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting late tonight or early Tuesday, with Hurricane conditions
expected by Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting later today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka is expected to reach
Johnston Atoll late today or tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kodama



Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.2N 54.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2018 0 33.2N 54.2W 990 43
0000UTC 02.10.2018 12 32.7N 55.1W 985 50
1200UTC 02.10.2018 24 30.9N 56.2W 979 55
0000UTC 03.10.2018 36 29.7N 56.7W 974 54
1200UTC 03.10.2018 48 29.5N 57.4W 969 59
0000UTC 04.10.2018 60 29.8N 57.4W 960 68
1200UTC 04.10.2018 72 31.1N 57.2W 952 72
0000UTC 05.10.2018 84 33.4N 57.4W 945 73
1200UTC 05.10.2018 96 35.0N 57.9W 949 69
0000UTC 06.10.2018 108 35.5N 57.6W 947 74
1200UTC 06.10.2018 120 36.1N 57.2W 949 70
0000UTC 07.10.2018 132 36.0N 56.2W 953 66
1200UTC 07.10.2018 144 36.4N 55.3W 959 64

TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.8N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2018 0 26.8N 117.0W 998 30
0000UTC 02.10.2018 12 28.3N 115.7W 1003 26
1200UTC 02.10.2018 24 31.5N 114.4W 1006 26
0000UTC 03.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 109.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2018 0 11.1N 109.4W 977 56
0000UTC 02.10.2018 12 10.7N 111.8W 971 59
1200UTC 02.10.2018 24 11.0N 114.2W 968 72
0000UTC 03.10.2018 36 11.7N 116.9W 963 79
1200UTC 03.10.2018 48 12.2N 118.9W 960 79
0000UTC 04.10.2018 60 13.4N 120.3W 963 70
1200UTC 04.10.2018 72 14.6N 122.2W 966 64
0000UTC 05.10.2018 84 15.5N 123.9W 965 66
1200UTC 05.10.2018 96 16.1N 125.4W 965 64
0000UTC 06.10.2018 108 16.9N 127.2W 951 76
1200UTC 06.10.2018 120 17.0N 129.0W 958 73
0000UTC 07.10.2018 132 17.0N 130.7W 966 66
1200UTC 07.10.2018 144 17.3N 132.5W 969 60

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 168.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2018 0 12.0N 168.2W 978 62
0000UTC 02.10.2018 12 12.8N 169.5W 969 63
1200UTC 02.10.2018 24 14.2N 170.1W 967 64
0000UTC 03.10.2018 36 16.0N 170.3W 960 68
1200UTC 03.10.2018 48 18.4N 169.7W 939 88
0000UTC 04.10.2018 60 21.4N 168.3W 937 96
1200UTC 04.10.2018 72 24.6N 166.3W 936 90
0000UTC 05.10.2018 84 28.4N 167.6W 957 64
1200UTC 05.10.2018 96 28.8N 169.5W 968 64
0000UTC 06.10.2018 108 29.2N 168.5W 979 51
1200UTC 06.10.2018 120 30.6N 166.7W 988 44
0000UTC 07.10.2018 132 34.4N 163.6W 989 47
1200UTC 07.10.2018 144 41.0N 159.6W 986 52

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 8.6N 138.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2018 84 9.1N 137.2W 1004 24
1200UTC 05.10.2018 96 9.7N 135.4W 1005 29
0000UTC 06.10.2018 108 9.4N 134.5W 1005 24
1200UTC 06.10.2018 120 8.8N 133.6W 1006 26
0000UTC 07.10.2018 132 8.8N 132.5W 1006 26
1200UTC 07.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.0N 92.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 120 13.3N 92.8W 1002 36
0000UTC 07.10.2018 132 14.2N 94.6W 999 41
1200UTC 07.10.2018 144 14.7N 95.2W 991 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 33.6N 28.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 132 32.3N 29.7W 1010 29
1200UTC 07.10.2018 144 31.1N 30.8W 1013 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.7N 41.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 144 12.7N 41.1W 1010 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011557


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.2N 54.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2018 33.2N 54.2W MODERATE
00UTC 02.10.2018 32.7N 55.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 30.9N 56.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 29.7N 56.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 29.5N 57.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 29.8N 57.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 31.1N 57.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 33.4N 57.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 35.0N 57.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 35.5N 57.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 36.1N 57.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 36.0N 56.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.4N 55.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.8N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2018 26.8N 117.0W MODERATE
00UTC 02.10.2018 28.3N 115.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.5N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 109.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2018 11.1N 109.4W STRONG
00UTC 02.10.2018 10.7N 111.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 11.0N 114.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 11.7N 116.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 12.2N 118.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 13.4N 120.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 14.6N 122.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 15.5N 123.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 16.1N 125.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 16.9N 127.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 17.0N 129.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 17.0N 130.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2018 17.3N 132.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 168.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.0N 168.2W STRONG
00UTC 02.10.2018 12.8N 169.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 14.2N 170.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.0N 170.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.4N 169.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 21.4N 168.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 24.6N 166.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 28.4N 167.6W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 28.8N 169.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 29.2N 168.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 30.6N 166.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 34.4N 163.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 41.0N 159.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 8.6N 138.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2018 9.1N 137.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 9.7N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 9.4N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 8.8N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 8.8N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.0N 92.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2018 13.3N 92.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.2N 94.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.7N 95.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 33.6N 28.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2018 32.3N 29.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2018 31.1N 30.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.7N 41.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2018 12.7N 41.1W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011557


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 011504 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST MON OCT 01 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WALAKA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE WELL
DEFINED EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE RING OF -70 TO -85C CLOUD
TOPS, AND CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS AS
EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE PRESENT ON BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST SIDE OF WALAKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PHFO, SAB, AND JTWC, WHILE
THE UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 5.4 (100 KNOTS). AS OF 01/14Z, RAW DT NUMBERS
ARE AS HIGH AS 7.0 (140 KNOTS), BUT NEED TO BE HELD DOWN
DUE TO INTENSIFICATION CONSTRAINTS. BASED ON THIS DATA ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN THE APPEARANCE AND ORGANIZATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF WALAKA FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS INCREASED TO 110
KNOTS, MAKING IT 5 KNOTS SHORT OF CATEGORY 4 STATUS. THE INITIAL
MOTION WAS SET AT 295/09 KNOTS.

WALAKA IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
AS A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY
OF 30N 170W AND FURTHER ERODES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WITH
WALAKA CONTINUING ON THIS COURSE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MAKE A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 011504
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

The satellite presentation of Walaka has improved significantly
overnight as the cyclone continues to rapidly intensify. The well
defined eye is surrounded by a large ring of -70 to -85C cloud
tops, and continues to show excellent outflow in all quadrants as
evident in geostationary satellite animations. Additionally, large
deep convective banding features are present on both the east and
west side of Walaka early this morning. The latest intensity
estimates came in at 5.5 (102 knots) from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, while
the UW-CIMSS ADT was 5.4 (100 knots). As of 01/14Z, raw DT numbers
are as high as 7.0 (140 knots), but need to be held down
due to intensification constraints. Based on this data along with
the continued improvement in the appearance and organization, the
initial intensity of Walaka for this advisory was increased to 110
knots, making it 5 knots short of category 4 status. The initial
motion was set at 295/09 knots.

Walaka is beginning to round the southwest periphery of a large
subtropical ridge this morning and is currently moving toward the
west-northwest. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today
as a deep north Pacific upper trough digs southward in the vicinity
of 30N 170W and further erodes the western end of the subtropical
ridge. A turn toward the north is then expected on Tuesday, with
Walaka continuing on this course through Tuesday night with an
increase in forward speed. The tropical cyclone should then make a
turn toward the north-northeast Wednesday and Wednesday night as it
begins to feel the influence of the deep upper level trough. The
track guidance then suggests a shift back toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed Thursday through Friday as Walaka
interacts with the deep upper level trough, with a turn back toward
the northeast expected Friday night. The official track forecast
was changed very little from the previous advisory and remains
in close proximity to the tightly clustered HCCA, TVCN, and GFEX
consensus guidance.

The environment surrounding Walaka remains very conducive for
additional intensification during the next 36 hours and possibly
even a bit longer. Today through Tuesday, the tropical cyclone will
remain within a deep moist airmass, with vertical wind shear
forecast to remain around 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures
holding in the 84 to 86 Fahrenheit range. As a result, additional
rapid intensification is expected today into tonight, with the
cyclone then forecast to level off late tonight through Tuesday
night. Given the environment surrounding the system, the intensity
forecast brings Walaka up to category 5 intensity tonight, and is
slightly above the intensity guidance which doesn't explicitly
indicate Walaka will reach category 5 intensity. There is the
potential that Walaka could intensify even more than currently
forecast, but due to eyewall replacement cycles likely leading to
some fluctuation in intensity, the forecast was held nearly steady
from late tonight through Tuesday night. Vertical wind shear is
expected to steadily increase Wednesday and Wednesday night as
Walaka approaches and begins to interact with the deep upper level
trough over the north-central Pacific, with sea surface temperatures
dropping off during this time as well. The intensity forecast
calls for rapid weakening beginning beyond 48 hours, with this
weakening trend expected to continue through the end of the forecast
period. The official intensity forecast has been increased from the
previous advisory and is slightly higher than all intensity guidance
through 36 hours, then falls more closely in line with a blend of
the statistical and dynamical guidance for forecast hour 72 through
120.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 12.3N 168.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.1N 169.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 170.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.4N 170.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.9N 170.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 25.0N 167.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 29.5N 167.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 33.0N 164.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 011456 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST MON OCT 01 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 168.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.3 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WALAKA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 011456
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 168.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 168.3 West. Walaka is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn
toward the north late tonight through Tuesday night with a gradual
increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid intensification is expected to
continue today into tonight, with little change in intensity
forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting late tonight or early Tuesday, with Hurricane conditions
expected by Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting later today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka is expected to reach
Johnston Atoll late today or tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 011455 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 168.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 65SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..235NE 155SE 165SW 235NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 168.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 167.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.1N 169.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 85SE 70SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 170.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 50SW 65NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 011455
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 168.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 65SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..235NE 155SE 165SW 235NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 168.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 167.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.1N 169.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 85SE 70SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 170.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 50SW 65NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.4N 170.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 170.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 29.5N 167.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 164.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 168.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 011149 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
200 AM HST MON OCT 01 2018

...WALAKA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 167.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.9 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 011149
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
200 AM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

...WALAKA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 167.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 167.9 West. Walaka is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue tonight, with a turn toward the northwest on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north with an increase in
forward speed on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is expected tonight and Monday with
little change in intensity forecast Monday night through Tuesday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting late Monday night or early Tuesday, with Hurricane
conditions expected by Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting late Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka may reach Johnston
Atoll late Monday or Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 010925 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

WALAKA IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION THIS EVENING, WHICH IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT GIVEN THE LARGE RING OF -70 TO -85C CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE THE WELL DEFINED EYE. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY, WHILE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE ANIMATIONS
SHOW WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNELS IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE LATEST
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PHFO AND SAB, 4.5
(77 KNOTS) FROM JTWC, WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 4.2 (70 KNOTS).
BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN APPEARANCE AND ORGANIZATION
OF WALAKA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS INCREASED TO
90 KNOTS. THE INITIAL MOTION WAS SET AT 280/10 KNOTS.

WALAKA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD THIS EVENING BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF 30N 170W. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WITH WALAKA CONTINUING ON THIS COURSE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS A
SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WALAKA INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 010925
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

Walaka is undergoing rapid intensification this evening, which is
clearly evident given the large ring of -70 to -85C cloud tops
surrounding the the well defined eye. Additionally, recent
microwave passes indicate that the organization of the system has
improved significantly, while geostationary satellite animations
show well defined outflow channels in all quadrants. The latest
intensity estimates came in at 5.0 (90 knots) from PHFO and SAB, 4.5
(77 knots) from JTWC, while the UW-CIMSS ADT was 4.2 (70 knots).
Based on the significant improvement in appearance and organization
of Walaka, the initial intensity for this advisory was increased to
90 knots. The initial motion was set at 280/10 knots.

Walaka continues to be steered westward this evening by a
subtropical ridge to the north of the system, and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Monday as a deep north Pacific upper trough digs
southward in the vicinity of 30N 170W. A turn toward the north is
then expected on Tuesday, with Walaka continuing on this course
through Tuesday night with an increase in forward speed. The
tropical cyclone should then make a turn toward the north-northeast
Wednesday and Wednesday night as it begins to feel the influence of
the deep upper level trough. The track guidance then suggests a
shift back toward the north with a decrease in forward speed
Thursday through Friday as Walaka interacts with the deep upper
level trough. The official forecast was nudged slightly to the left
through 48 hours, then slightly to the right beyond 48 hours, and
is very close to the HCCA, TVCN, and GFEX consensus guidance.

The environment surrounding Walaka remains very conducive for
additional intensification through 48 hours. The tropical cyclone
will remain within a deep moist airmass, with vertical wind shear
forecast to remain around 10 knots or less through 48 hours, and
sea surface temperatures holding in the 84 to 86 Fahrenheit range
during this time. As a result, additional rapid intensification is
expected tonight and Monday, with the cyclone then forecast to level
off just below category 5 status Tuesday and Tuesday night. Given
the environment surrounding the system, intensification to a
category 5 storm is not out of the question, although none of the
intensity guidance explicitly indicate this at this time.
Additionally, Walaka will likely undergo eyewall replacement cycles
which will lead to some fluctuation in intensity. Beyond 48 hours,
vertical wind shear will steadily increase as Walaka approaches and
begins to interact with the deep upper level trough over the
north-central Pacific, with sea surface temperatures dropping off as
well. The intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening by 72 hours,
with rapid weakening then expected beyond 72 hours through the end
of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast has been
increased from the previous advisory and is in line with the high
end of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.9N 167.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 12.5N 168.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.5N 169.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 170.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.2N 170.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 23.3N 168.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 28.5N 167.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 31.0N 166.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 010855 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

...WALAKA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 167.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.5 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 010855
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

...WALAKA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 167.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 167.5 West. Walaka is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue tonight, with a turn toward the northwest on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north with an increase in
forward speed on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is expected tonight and Monday with
little change in intensity forecast Monday night through Tuesday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting late Monday night or early Tuesday, with Hurricane
conditions expected by Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting late Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka may reach Johnston
Atoll late Monday or Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 010854 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 167.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 120SE 120SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 167.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 167.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.5N 168.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 65SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.5N 169.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 010854
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 167.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 120SE 120SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 167.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 167.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.5N 168.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 65SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.5N 169.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 170.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 65NE 60SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...130NE 95SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.2N 170.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 168.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 95SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 28.5N 167.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 31.0N 166.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 167.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 010609 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
800 PM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

...WALAKA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 166.8W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.8 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW AND BECOME NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, THEN NORTH ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (160 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 010609
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
800 PM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

...WALAKA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 166.8W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Johnston Atoll.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 166.8 West. Walaka is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to
slow and become northwest on Monday, then north on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting early Tuesday, with Hurricane conditions expected by
Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka may reach Johnston
Atoll by Monday or Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 53.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2018 0 33.4N 53.3W 991 40
1200UTC 01.10.2018 12 33.1N 54.1W 989 44
0000UTC 02.10.2018 24 32.8N 55.1W 984 52
1200UTC 02.10.2018 36 31.4N 56.2W 978 55
0000UTC 03.10.2018 48 30.2N 56.5W 972 56
1200UTC 03.10.2018 60 30.1N 56.5W 964 58
0000UTC 04.10.2018 72 30.8N 56.2W 959 62
1200UTC 04.10.2018 84 32.4N 55.8W 955 67
0000UTC 05.10.2018 96 34.1N 55.3W 951 68
1200UTC 05.10.2018 108 35.3N 55.3W 955 67
0000UTC 06.10.2018 120 35.8N 54.3W 955 65
1200UTC 06.10.2018 132 35.8N 53.2W 960 64
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 35.6N 51.8W 963 61

TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.4N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2018 0 25.4N 117.9W 987 43
1200UTC 01.10.2018 12 26.7N 116.7W 996 33
0000UTC 02.10.2018 24 28.0N 115.8W 1001 26
1200UTC 02.10.2018 36 31.3N 114.2W 1005 25
0000UTC 03.10.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2018 0 11.4N 107.1W 994 47
1200UTC 01.10.2018 12 10.8N 109.7W 985 54
0000UTC 02.10.2018 24 10.2N 112.1W 981 56
1200UTC 02.10.2018 36 10.7N 114.8W 973 71
0000UTC 03.10.2018 48 11.4N 117.5W 972 78
1200UTC 03.10.2018 60 12.0N 119.5W 970 73
0000UTC 04.10.2018 72 13.1N 121.1W 975 66
1200UTC 04.10.2018 84 14.3N 123.1W 977 61
0000UTC 05.10.2018 96 14.9N 124.9W 976 59
1200UTC 05.10.2018 108 15.4N 126.3W 971 60
0000UTC 06.10.2018 120 16.4N 127.4W 966 67
1200UTC 06.10.2018 132 17.3N 129.1W 968 73
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 17.9N 130.9W 975 63

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 166.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2018 0 11.7N 166.4W 990 51
1200UTC 01.10.2018 12 12.0N 168.4W 982 59
0000UTC 02.10.2018 24 12.5N 169.9W 971 59
1200UTC 02.10.2018 36 13.8N 170.3W 970 62
0000UTC 03.10.2018 48 15.8N 170.4W 959 69
1200UTC 03.10.2018 60 18.3N 169.9W 939 83
0000UTC 04.10.2018 72 21.3N 168.3W 927 104
1200UTC 04.10.2018 84 23.8N 166.2W 936 94
0000UTC 05.10.2018 96 27.4N 165.7W 951 73
1200UTC 05.10.2018 108 28.3N 167.6W 967 62
0000UTC 06.10.2018 120 29.2N 167.6W 976 54
1200UTC 06.10.2018 132 29.7N 166.6W 987 45
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 31.2N 164.0W 993 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 35.4N 26.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2018 84 35.4N 26.7W 1013 21
0000UTC 05.10.2018 96 35.2N 25.3W 1011 24
1200UTC 05.10.2018 108 35.0N 24.3W 1009 24
0000UTC 06.10.2018 120 34.1N 23.0W 1006 30
1200UTC 06.10.2018 132 35.3N 22.1W 1005 37
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 9.3N 137.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2018 96 9.3N 137.3W 1004 24
1200UTC 05.10.2018 108 9.9N 135.5W 1005 26
0000UTC 06.10.2018 120 9.8N 134.5W 1004 26
1200UTC 06.10.2018 132 9.5N 133.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 10.1N 131.3W 1005 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 8.1N 147.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2018 108 8.2N 147.6W 1007 26
0000UTC 06.10.2018 120 8.3N 146.7W 1006 23
1200UTC 06.10.2018 132 8.3N 145.8W 1007 20
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 8.2N 145.3W 1008 18

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.0N 33.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2018 108 11.0N 33.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 06.10.2018 120 11.4N 36.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 06.10.2018 132 11.7N 38.5W 1008 29
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 12.0N 40.6W 1007 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.3N 26.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 33.2N 27.2W 1006 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N 94.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 14.5N 94.2W 1003 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010358


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 010358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 53.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2018 33.4N 53.3W MODERATE
12UTC 01.10.2018 33.1N 54.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2018 32.8N 55.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.4N 56.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 30.2N 56.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 30.1N 56.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 30.8N 56.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 32.4N 55.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 34.1N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 35.3N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 35.8N 54.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 35.8N 53.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 35.6N 51.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.4N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2018 25.4N 117.9W MODERATE
12UTC 01.10.2018 26.7N 116.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 28.0N 115.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.3N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.4N 107.1W MODERATE
12UTC 01.10.2018 10.8N 109.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 10.2N 112.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 10.7N 114.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 11.4N 117.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 12.0N 119.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 13.1N 121.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 14.3N 123.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 14.9N 124.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 15.4N 126.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 16.4N 127.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 17.3N 129.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 17.9N 130.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 166.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.7N 166.4W MODERATE
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.0N 168.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 12.5N 169.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 13.8N 170.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 15.8N 170.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.3N 169.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 21.3N 168.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 23.8N 166.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 27.4N 165.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 28.3N 167.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 29.2N 167.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 29.7N 166.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2018 31.2N 164.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 35.4N 26.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.10.2018 35.4N 26.7W WEAK
00UTC 05.10.2018 35.2N 25.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 35.0N 24.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 34.1N 23.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 35.3N 22.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 9.3N 137.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2018 9.3N 137.3W WEAK
12UTC 05.10.2018 9.9N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 9.8N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 9.5N 133.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 10.1N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 8.1N 147.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2018 8.2N 147.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 8.3N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 8.3N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 8.2N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.0N 33.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2018 11.0N 33.1W WEAK
00UTC 06.10.2018 11.4N 36.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 11.7N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2018 12.0N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.3N 26.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2018 33.2N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N 94.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.5N 94.2W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010358


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 010254 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

WALAKA'S WELL DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE WRAPPING PATTERN HAS MORPHED
INTO A CLOUDY EYE PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SYSTEM OUTFLOW IS GOOD ACROSS ALL QUADRANTS
AND OVERALL SYSTEM SYMMETRY AND ORGANIZATION CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
4.0/65 KT FROM JTWC AND PHFO TO 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB. ADT FROM
UW-CIMSS IS 68 KT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A CLOUDY EYE AND HIGHER
OVERALL CI ESTIMATES FROM THE ANALYSIS CENTERS, WE WILL SET THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WALAKA IS NOW A
HURRICANE.

THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR WALAKA IS UNCHANGED. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD, ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF WALAKA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL STEER
WALAKA NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH FRIDAY, GREATLY INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CURVE NORTHWARD. OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE, WITH ANOTHER TAP TO THE WEST FROM
12 TO 36 HOURS NEEDED TO STAY WITHIN THE VERY TIGHT GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. A SMALL TAP TO THE EAST AT 72 HOURS WAS NEEDED FOR THE
SAME REASON. WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGING THE CENTER OF
WALAKA VERY NEAR JOHNSTON ATOLL ON TUESDAY, A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT THERE.

WALAKA REMAINS WITHIN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING, WITH HIGH


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 010254
TCDCP1

Hurricane Walaka Discussion Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

Walaka's well defined deep convective wrapping pattern has morphed
into a cloudy eye pattern in visible imagery this afternoon.
Satellite loop shows system outflow is good across all quadrants
and overall system symmetry and organization continue to improve.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) estimates range from
4.0/65 kt from JTWC and PHFO to 4.5/77 kt from SAB. ADT from
UW-CIMSS is 68 kt. Given the presence of a cloudy eye and higher
overall CI estimates from the analysis centers, we will set the
initial intensity at 65 kt for this advisory. Walaka is now a
hurricane.

The overall forecast philosophy for Walaka is unchanged. This
system continues moving slightly north of due west along the
southern flank of the subtropical ridge. Global models show a deep
upper trough will dig southward, eroding the western edge of the
subtropical ridge to the north of Walaka on Monday. This will steer
Walaka northwestward, then northward on Tuesday. Track guidance
remains very tightly clustered through Friday, greatly increasing
confidence in the timing of the curve northward. Our forecast
closely follows the previous one, with another tap to the west from
12 to 36 hours needed to stay within the very tight guidance
envelope. A small tap to the east at 72 hours was needed for the
same reason. With the official forecast track bringing the center of
Walaka very near Johnston Atoll on Tuesday, a Hurricane Warning is
now in effect there.

Walaka remains within ideal conditions for strengthening, with high
SSTs, low shear, high ocean heat content and plenty of deep
moisture. SHIPS shows vertical shear will remain below 20 kt
through 48 hours, ramping up to near 30 kt by day 3 and beyond. SSTs
stay above 28 degrees C until day 3 even as Walaka tracks northward.
Our forecast calls for rapid intensification through day 2, with
Walaka reaching major hurricane status on Monday. After leveling
off between days 2 and 3, increasing vertical shear and decreasing
SSTs should begin to take their toll on this system. Steady
weakening is forecast for day 3 and beyond. Our intensity forecast
trends are close to those in the previous advisory, following HWRF.
Some of the intensity guidance, like SHIPS, strengthens Walaka into
the 130 to 140 kt range by day 2, with the probability for rapid
intensification exceeding 90%. While we cap this system at 120 kt
for this advisory, subsequent advisory packages may begin to
reflect a stronger maximum intensity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.9N 166.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 12.3N 167.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.3N 169.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.8N 170.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.2N 170.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 22.7N 168.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 28.3N 168.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 32.1N 167.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 010253 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

...WALAKA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 166.4W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WALAKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.4 WEST. WALAKA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW AND BECOME NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, THEN NORTH ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 010253
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

...WALAKA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 166.4W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Johnston Atoll.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 166.4 West. Walaka is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to
slow and become northwest on Monday, then north on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting early Tuesday, with Hurricane conditions expected by
Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka may reach Johnston
Atoll by Monday or Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 010253 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 166.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 50SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 166.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 165.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.3N 167.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.3N 169.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 45SW 40NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 010253
TCMCP1

HURRICANE WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 166.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 50SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 166.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 165.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.3N 167.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.3N 169.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 45SW 40NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 60NW.
34 KT...115NE 95SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 170.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.2N 170.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 55SE 45SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...125NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.7N 168.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 85SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 145SE 115SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 28.3N 168.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.1N 167.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 166.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 302354 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
200 PM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 165.9W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.9 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, THEN NORTH ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
WALAKA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 302354
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
200 PM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 165.9W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in
the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Walaka was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 165.9 West. Walaka is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to slow and become northwest on Monday, then north on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast through Tuesday, with
Walaka expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are possible across Johnston
Island starting early Tuesday, with Hurricane conditions possible
starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka may reach Johnston
Atoll by Monday or Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell



Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 302047 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

DEEP CONVECTION AROUND WALAKA HAS ASSUMED A GOOD WRAPPING PATTERN
THIS MORNING, INCREASING POSITION CONFIDENCE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A
RELATIVE DRY SLOT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SLOT, WHICH IS ALSO QUITE WARM, MAY
SOON DEVELOP INTO AN EYE. CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN QUITE COLD, IN THE
-80 TO -90 DEGREE C RANGE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 3.0/45 KT FROM JTWC TO 4.0/65 KT FROM SAB.
PHFO PROVIDED 3.5/55 KT WHILE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 58 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON A MIX OF THESE
ESTIMATES.

WALAKA IS TRACKING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD, ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF WALAKA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL STEER
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE BACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS VERY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH FRIDAY, GREATLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THE CURVE NORTHWARD. OUR FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS ONE, WITH A SLIGHT TAP TO THE WEST BEYOND 36 HOURS NEEDED
TO STAY WITHIN THE VERY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FSSE AND CTCI
MARK THE RIGHT AND LEFT ENVELOPE LIMITS, WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THEM THROUGH DAY 3. WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
BRINGING THE CENTER OF WALAKA VERY NEAR JOHNSTON ATOLL ON TUESDAY, A


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 302047
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

Deep convection around Walaka has assumed a good wrapping pattern
this morning, increasing position confidence with development of a
relative dry slot along the southeast quadrant of the circulation.
The northern portion of this slot, which is also quite warm, may
soon develop into an eye. Convective tops remain quite cold, in the
-80 to -90 degree C range. Subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates ranged from 3.0/45 kt from JTWC to 4.0/65 kt from SAB.
PHFO provided 3.5/55 kt while ADT from UW-CIMSS was 58 kt. The
initial intensity is set at 55 kt based on a mix of these
estimates.

Walaka is tracking slightly north of due west along the southern
flank of the subtropical ridge. Global models show a deep upper
trough will dig southward, eroding the western edge of the
subtropical ridge to the north of Walaka on Monday. This will steer
the tropical cyclone northwestward, then northward on Tuesday. The
system should curve back north-northwestward on Thursday as it
begins to interact with the upper trough. Track guidance is very
tightly clustered through Friday, greatly increasing confidence in
the timing of the curve northward. Our forecast closely follows the
previous one, with a slight tap to the west beyond 36 hours needed
to stay within the very tight guidance envelope. FSSE and CTCI
mark the right and left envelope limits, with little difference
between them through day 3. With the official forecast track
bringing the center of Walaka very near Johnston Atoll on Tuesday, a
Hurricane Watch remains in effect there.

Walaka remains within ideal conditions for strengthening, with high
SSTs, low shear, high ocean heat content and plenty of deep
moisture. SHIPS shows vertical shear will remain below 20 kt
through 48 hours, ramping up to near 30 kt by day 3 and beyond. SSTs
stay above 28 degrees C until day 3 even as Walaka tracks northward.
Our forecast calls for rapid intensification through day 2, with
Walaka reaching major hurricane status on Monday. After leveling
off between days 2 and 3, increasing vertical shear and decreasing
SSTs should begin to take their toll on this system. Steady
weakening is forecast for days 4 and 5. Our intensity forecast
trends are close to those in the previous advisory, following LGEM
and IVRI as Walaka strengthens, then following FSSE and CTCI as it
weakens.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.9N 165.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 12.2N 167.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 13.0N 168.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 14.3N 169.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 16.4N 170.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 21.8N 169.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 27.7N 168.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 31.5N 167.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 302047 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 165.2W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.2 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, THEN NORTH ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
WALAKA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 302047
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Walaka Advisory Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 165.2W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in
the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Walaka was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 165.2 West. Walaka is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to slow and become northwest on Monday, then north on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast through Tuesday, with
Walaka expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are possible across Johnston
Island starting early Tuesday, with Hurricane conditions possible
starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka may reach Johnston
Atoll by Monday or Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 302047 RRA
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 165.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 50SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 165.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 164.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 167.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 168.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 55SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 169.9W


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 302047
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 165.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 50SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 165.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 164.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 167.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 168.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 55SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 169.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 75SE 65SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.4N 170.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.8N 169.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...125NE 105SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 27.7N 168.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.5N 167.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 165.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL




Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 301759 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
800 AM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

...WALAKA INTENSIFIES WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 164.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.6 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 301759
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
800 AM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

...WALAKA INTENSIFIES WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 164.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in
the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Walaka was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 164.6 West. Walaka is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through tonight with a decrease in forward
speed, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday and a turn
toward the north on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next couple days,
with Walaka expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are possible across Johnston
Island starting early Tuesday, with Hurricane conditions possible
starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka may reach Johnston
Atoll by Monday or Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 11.7N 163.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 163.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 11.9N 165.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 12.3N 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.3N 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.9N 169.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.8N 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.0N 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.0N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 163.9W.
TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM
SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 301559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 52.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2018 0 33.6N 52.7W 992 36
0000UTC 01.10.2018 12 33.4N 53.5W 993 38
1200UTC 01.10.2018 24 33.2N 54.2W 990 44
0000UTC 02.10.2018 36 32.8N 54.9W 984 50
1200UTC 02.10.2018 48 31.9N 56.0W 979 55
0000UTC 03.10.2018 60 30.7N 56.5W 971 59
1200UTC 03.10.2018 72 30.1N 56.9W 965 57
0000UTC 04.10.2018 84 30.8N 56.3W 957 64
1200UTC 04.10.2018 96 32.7N 55.5W 949 68
0000UTC 05.10.2018 108 34.8N 55.3W 948 72
1200UTC 05.10.2018 120 36.6N 55.0W 951 66
0000UTC 06.10.2018 132 37.8N 53.2W 952 64
1200UTC 06.10.2018 144 38.0N 51.0W 960 64

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.7N 118.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2018 0 23.7N 118.4W 976 58
0000UTC 01.10.2018 12 25.8N 117.6W 986 46
1200UTC 01.10.2018 24 27.4N 116.3W 995 34
0000UTC 02.10.2018 36 28.6N 115.1W 1002 29
1200UTC 02.10.2018 48 31.4N 113.5W 1006 20
0000UTC 03.10.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 105.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2018 0 11.7N 105.0W 999 38
0000UTC 01.10.2018 12 11.5N 107.4W 991 47
1200UTC 01.10.2018 24 11.0N 109.7W 980 60
0000UTC 02.10.2018 36 10.7N 112.1W 970 61
1200UTC 02.10.2018 48 10.9N 114.8W 958 83
0000UTC 03.10.2018 60 11.5N 117.7W 961 85
1200UTC 03.10.2018 72 11.8N 119.7W 963 78
0000UTC 04.10.2018 84 12.8N 121.2W 965 69
1200UTC 04.10.2018 96 13.9N 122.8W 970 65
0000UTC 05.10.2018 108 15.3N 124.4W 965 68
1200UTC 05.10.2018 120 16.6N 126.0W 960 68
0000UTC 06.10.2018 132 17.6N 127.5W 959 69
1200UTC 06.10.2018 144 18.1N 129.2W 975 60

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 163.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2018 0 11.7N 163.6W 998 48
0000UTC 01.10.2018 12 11.6N 166.4W 990 49
1200UTC 01.10.2018 24 12.2N 168.6W 982 59
0000UTC 02.10.2018 36 12.8N 170.1W 972 60
1200UTC 02.10.2018 48 14.2N 170.6W 963 66
0000UTC 03.10.2018 60 16.1N 170.8W 957 73
1200UTC 03.10.2018 72 18.4N 170.2W 934 87
0000UTC 04.10.2018 84 21.3N 168.8W 924 99
1200UTC 04.10.2018 96 23.9N 166.9W 932 94
0000UTC 05.10.2018 108 27.2N 167.1W 949 71
1200UTC 05.10.2018 120 27.8N 168.4W 964 66
0000UTC 06.10.2018 132 29.1N 167.6W 972 58
1200UTC 06.10.2018 144 31.4N 165.4W 980 56

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 35.3N 31.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2018 36 35.3N 31.2W 1013 26
1200UTC 02.10.2018 48 35.0N 33.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 03.10.2018 60 34.3N 32.6W 1013 18
1200UTC 03.10.2018 72 34.2N 31.1W 1014 19
0000UTC 04.10.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.1N 149.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2018 84 9.0N 149.5W 1006 23
1200UTC 04.10.2018 96 8.5N 150.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 05.10.2018 108 8.1N 150.4W 1006 23
1200UTC 05.10.2018 120 8.2N 150.2W 1006 24
0000UTC 06.10.2018 132 8.3N 149.8W 1005 23
1200UTC 06.10.2018 144 8.7N 149.3W 1006 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.5N 129.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2018 84 12.0N 129.1W 1004 28
1200UTC 04.10.2018 96 10.9N 129.8W 1002 28
0000UTC 05.10.2018 108 10.5N 129.1W 1001 32
1200UTC 05.10.2018 120 10.6N 127.3W 1001 34
0000UTC 06.10.2018 132 12.2N 125.3W 1002 45
1200UTC 06.10.2018 144 15.0N 124.9W 1003 60

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 8.8N 139.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2018 132 8.8N 139.7W 1005 22
1200UTC 06.10.2018 144 8.9N 139.2W 1006 21


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301558


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 301558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 52.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2018 33.6N 52.7W MODERATE
00UTC 01.10.2018 33.4N 53.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 33.2N 54.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2018 32.8N 54.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.9N 56.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 30.7N 56.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 30.1N 56.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 30.8N 56.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 32.7N 55.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 34.8N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 36.6N 55.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 37.8N 53.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 38.0N 51.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.7N 118.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2018 23.7N 118.4W STRONG
00UTC 01.10.2018 25.8N 117.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 27.4N 116.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 28.6N 115.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.4N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 105.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.7N 105.0W MODERATE
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.5N 107.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 11.0N 109.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 10.7N 112.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 10.9N 114.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 11.5N 117.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 11.8N 119.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 12.8N 121.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 13.9N 122.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 15.3N 124.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 16.6N 126.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 17.6N 127.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 18.1N 129.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 163.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.7N 163.6W MODERATE
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.6N 166.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.2N 168.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 12.8N 170.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 14.2N 170.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.1N 170.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.4N 170.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 21.3N 168.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 23.9N 166.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 27.2N 167.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 27.8N 168.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 29.1N 167.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2018 31.4N 165.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 35.3N 31.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2018 35.3N 31.2W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2018 35.0N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 34.3N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 34.2N 31.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.1N 149.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2018 9.0N 149.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 8.5N 150.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 8.1N 150.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 8.2N 150.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 8.3N 149.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 8.7N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.5N 129.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2018 12.0N 129.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 10.9N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 10.5N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 10.6N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 12.2N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2018 15.0N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 8.8N 139.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2018 8.8N 139.7W WEAK
12UTC 06.10.2018 8.9N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301558


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 301506 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WALAKA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT, WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FEATURING
-80 TO -90C CLOUD TOPS OVER THE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
TO ASSIST IN CONFIDENTLY DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION, THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER MICROWAVE
PASSES AND CURRENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE 3.0 (45
KNOTS), AND 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM JTWC. MEANWHILE, THE ADT VALUE FROM
UW-CIMSS CONTINUES TO APPEAR UNREALISTICALLY HIGH AT 4.1 (67 KNOTS).
GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION AND APPEARANCE OF WALAKA SINCE
THE 12Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS
BEEN SET AT 275/14 KNOTS.

WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEARLY DUE WEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL ERODE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF WALAKA ON MONDAY AND STEER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SLOW DOWN AND BE PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ENTIRE
FORECAST CYCLE, WITH A BIT MORE SPREAD NOTED BY FORECAST HOUR 120.


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 301506
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

The satellite presentation of Walaka has improved significantly
overnight, with a large area of deep convection featuring
-80 to -90C cloud tops over the difficult to locate low level
circulation center. Due to the lack of any recent microwave imagery
to assist in confidently determining the center location, the
initial position was based on extrapolation from earlier microwave
passes and current geostationary satellite animations. The latest
satellite intensity estimates from PHFO and SAB were 3.0 (45
knots), and 2.5 (35 knots) from JTWC. Meanwhile, the ADT value from
UW-CIMSS continues to appear unrealistically high at 4.1 (67 knots).
Given the improvement in organization and appearance of Walaka since
the 12Z satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for
this advisory has been increased to 50 knots. The initial motion has
been set at 275/14 knots.

Walaka is expected to track nearly due west along the south side of
a subtropical ridge today and tonight, with a gradual decrease in
forward speed. A deep north Pacific upper trough will erode the
subtropical ridge to the north of Walaka on Monday and steer the
tropical cyclone northwestward, with a turn toward the north
expected on Tuesday along with an increase in forward speed. The
system should then slow down and be pulled back to the north-
northwest on Thursday as it begins to interact with the upper
trough. The guidance is fairly tightly clustered through entire
forecast cycle, with a bit more spread noted by forecast hour 120.
The official forecast closely follows the GFEX, TVCN, and HCCA
consensus guidance, and is very closely aligned with the forecast
track from the previous advisory. With the official forecast track
bringing the center of Walaka very near Johnston Atoll on Tuesday,
a Hurricane Watch has been issued for this location.

The environmental conditions surrounding Walaka will remain very
conducive for intensification over the next several days, with high
sea surface temperatures of 84 to 86 Fahrenheit, 10 knots or less
of vertical wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of deep
moisture. As a result, the forecast calls for rapid intensification
today through Monday night, with Walaka expected to become a major
hurricane on Monday. The intensity should level off a bit Tuesday
into Tuesday night following the period of rapid intensification
and accounting for the potential for eyewall replacement cycles.
Vertical wind shear should then begin to impact the tropical
cyclone beginning late Tuesday night or Wednesday as it interacts
with a deep upper level trough, and as a result, the intensity
forecast calls for steady weakening by forecast hours 96 and 120.
The intensity forecast has been increased slightly from the
previous advisory and is on the high end of most of the intensity
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 11.7N 163.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 11.9N 165.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 12.3N 167.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 168.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.9N 169.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.8N 169.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 27.0N 167.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 30.0N 168.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 301444 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 AM HST SUN SEP 30 2018

...WALAKA INTENSIFIES WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 163.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.9 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 301444
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Walaka Advisory Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 AM HST Sun Sep 30 2018

...WALAKA INTENSIFIES WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 163.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Johnston Atoll.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in
the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Walaka was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 163.9 West. Walaka is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through tonight with a decrease in forward
speed, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday and a turn
toward the north on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid intensification is forecast over the next couple days, with
Walaka expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm force winds are possible across Johnston
Island starting early Tuesday, with Hurricane conditions possible
starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Atoll reefs and shorelines
starting late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka may reach Johnston
Atoll by Monday or Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 301443 RRA
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 15SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 50SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.9N 165.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.3N 167.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 55SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.3N 168.9W


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 301443
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ATOLL

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 15SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 50SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.9N 165.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.3N 167.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 55SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.3N 168.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 75SE 65SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.9N 169.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 169.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...125NE 105SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 27.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 30.0N 168.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 163.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 161.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 161.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 11.8N 164.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 12.1N 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 12.8N 168.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.0N 169.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.9N 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 162.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 300908 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 29 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WALAKA HAS IMPROVED THIS EVENING,
WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES WERE HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION, BUT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM LACKS GOOD ORGANIZATION AT THE MOMENT. THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO, SAB AND JTWC ALL CAME IN AT
2.5 (35 KNOTS) WITH THE ADT VALUE FROM UW-CIMSS APPEARING
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH AT 3.6 (57 KNOTS). AS A RESULT, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
MOTION BASED ON INTERPOLATING BETWEEN MICROWAVE PASSES ALONG WITH
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE ANIMATIONS WILL BE SET AT 270/14 KNOTS.

WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEARLY DUE WEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL ERODE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF WALAKA ON MONDAY AND STEER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST BEYOND
72 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS
WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD FROM FORECAST HOUR 72 ONWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFEX AND TVCN CONSENSUS
MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND LIES NEARLY ON TOP OF THE TRACK FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 300908
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 29 2018

The satellite presentation of Walaka has improved this evening,
with an increase in deep convection around the low level
circulation center. Several microwave passes were helpful in
determining the center location, but also indicated that the
tropical storm lacks good organization at the moment. The latest
satellite intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC all came in at
2.5 (35 knots) with the ADT value from UW-CIMSS appearing
unrealistically high at 3.6 (57 knots). As a result, the initial
intensity for this advisory will be held at 35 knots. The initial
motion based on interpolating between microwave passes along with
geostationary satellite animations will be set at 270/14 knots.

Walaka is expected to track nearly due west along the south side of
a subtropical ridge through Sunday night, with a gradual decrease
in forward speed. A deep north Pacific upper trough will erode the
subtropical ridge to the north of Walaka on Monday and steer the
tropical cyclone northwestward, with a turn toward the north and
northeast along with an increase in forward speed forecast beyond
72 hours. The guidance is fairly tightly clustered through 48 hours
with increasing model spread from forecast hour 72 onward. The
official forecast closely follows the GFEX and TVCN consensus
models through 48 hours, and lies nearly on top of the track from
the previous advisory. Beyond 48 hours, the official forecast track
was nudged to the right to better align with the latest consensus
guidance. Of note, the forecast track currently brings the center
of Walaka very near Johnston Atoll, late Monday night or early
Tuesday, and watches will likely be needed on Sunday.

The environmental conditions surrounding Walaka will remain very
conducive for intensification over the next several days, with high
sea surface temperatures of 84 to 86 Fahrenheit, 10 knots or less
of vertical wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of deep
moisture. As a result, the forecast calls for steady
intensification over the next 24 hours as the system becomes better
organized, with rapid intensification expected between forecast hour
24 and forecast hour 48, with Walaka expected to become a major
hurricane by Monday night. Wind shear should begin to impact the
system as it interacts with a deep upper level trough beyond 72
hours, and the forecast calls for steady weakening by forecast hours
96 and 120. The official intensity forecast is generally a blend
between the statistical and dynamical models, with the dynamical
models showing even a faster rate of intensification than the
official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 11.6N 162.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.8N 164.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 12.1N 166.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.8N 168.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.0N 169.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.9N 169.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 24.5N 167.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 30.5N 167.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 300843 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 29 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 162.1W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ATOLL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
WALAKA, AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 162.1 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
WALAKA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS THEN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES (85 KM)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 300843
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Walaka Advisory Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 29 2018

...WALAKA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 162.1W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Atoll should closely monitor the progress of
Walaka, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be needed later tonight.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Walaka was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 162.1 West. Walaka is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through Sunday night, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Monday and a turn toward the north early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady intensification is expected through Sunday, with
Walaka expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night. Rapid
intensification is then forecast Sunday night through Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 300840 RRA
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ATOLL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
WALAKA... AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 162.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..185NE 120SE 30SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 162.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 161.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.8N 164.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.1N 166.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.8N 168.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.0N 169.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 105NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 300840
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ATOLL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
WALAKA... AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 162.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..185NE 120SE 30SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 162.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 161.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.8N 164.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.1N 166.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.8N 168.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.0N 169.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 169.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 65NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 90SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.5N 167.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 30.5N 167.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 162.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 300400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 11.4N 159.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 159.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 11.6N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 11.9N 165.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 12.4N 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.5N 168.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.9N 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 160.8W.
TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 010400Z.//
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REMOVED 96 HOUR AND 120 HOUR WIND
RADII.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 51.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2018 0 34.2N 51.6W 990 41
1200UTC 30.09.2018 12 33.5N 52.9W 992 36
0000UTC 01.10.2018 24 33.0N 53.4W 992 42
1200UTC 01.10.2018 36 32.8N 54.3W 989 49
0000UTC 02.10.2018 48 32.5N 54.3W 981 56
1200UTC 02.10.2018 60 32.2N 55.1W 975 60
0000UTC 03.10.2018 72 31.1N 54.9W 967 62
1200UTC 03.10.2018 84 31.2N 54.9W 958 65
0000UTC 04.10.2018 96 32.4N 54.1W 954 62
1200UTC 04.10.2018 108 34.2N 53.2W 952 65
0000UTC 05.10.2018 120 36.1N 51.8W 953 61
1200UTC 05.10.2018 132 37.5N 50.4W 959 61
0000UTC 06.10.2018 144 38.4N 47.5W 959 60

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 118.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2018 0 22.0N 118.9W 966 63
1200UTC 30.09.2018 12 24.0N 118.8W 971 62
0000UTC 01.10.2018 24 26.0N 117.6W 982 50
1200UTC 01.10.2018 36 27.5N 116.3W 993 36
0000UTC 02.10.2018 48 28.7N 115.1W 1001 28
1200UTC 02.10.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 103.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2018 0 12.2N 103.3W 1003 28
1200UTC 30.09.2018 12 11.8N 105.9W 1002 28
0000UTC 01.10.2018 24 11.5N 108.0W 997 36
1200UTC 01.10.2018 36 10.8N 110.4W 989 46
0000UTC 02.10.2018 48 10.9N 112.7W 980 62
1200UTC 02.10.2018 60 11.3N 115.4W 971 76
0000UTC 03.10.2018 72 12.2N 117.9W 978 62
1200UTC 03.10.2018 84 12.6N 120.1W 975 66
0000UTC 04.10.2018 96 13.6N 121.7W 975 63
1200UTC 04.10.2018 108 15.0N 123.5W 978 55
0000UTC 05.10.2018 120 16.3N 125.9W 976 60
1200UTC 05.10.2018 132 16.9N 127.1W 974 62
0000UTC 06.10.2018 144 18.1N 128.6W 972 64

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 160.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2018 0 11.7N 160.4W 1002 44
1200UTC 30.09.2018 12 11.4N 163.8W 998 42
0000UTC 01.10.2018 24 11.7N 166.2W 989 52
1200UTC 01.10.2018 36 12.2N 168.5W 980 57
0000UTC 02.10.2018 48 13.4N 169.9W 968 65
1200UTC 02.10.2018 60 14.7N 170.6W 963 67
0000UTC 03.10.2018 72 16.4N 170.8W 952 70
1200UTC 03.10.2018 84 18.8N 169.7W 938 88
0000UTC 04.10.2018 96 21.7N 168.0W 932 89
1200UTC 04.10.2018 108 24.5N 165.6W 936 89
0000UTC 05.10.2018 120 27.5N 166.0W 960 63
1200UTC 05.10.2018 132 28.0N 166.6W 972 61
0000UTC 06.10.2018 144 29.5N 166.1W 974 56

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.7N 129.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2018 84 11.7N 129.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 04.10.2018 96 10.6N 128.3W 1002 33
1200UTC 04.10.2018 108 10.5N 126.1W 1001 47
0000UTC 05.10.2018 120 16.3N 125.9W 976 60
1200UTC 05.10.2018 132 16.9N 127.1W 974 62
0000UTC 06.10.2018 144 18.1N 128.6W 972 64

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 33.6N 26.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2018 108 33.6N 26.5W 1013 20
0000UTC 05.10.2018 120 33.3N 25.6W 1012 18
1200UTC 05.10.2018 132 32.6N 24.6W 1012 21
0000UTC 06.10.2018 144 31.7N 24.2W 1012 20

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 8.1N 151.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2018 132 8.1N 151.8W 1007 23
0000UTC 06.10.2018 144 8.1N 151.4W 1006 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300359


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 300359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 51.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2018 34.2N 51.6W MODERATE
12UTC 30.09.2018 33.5N 52.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 33.0N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 32.8N 54.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2018 32.5N 54.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 32.2N 55.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 31.1N 54.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 31.2N 54.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 32.4N 54.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 34.2N 53.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 36.1N 51.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 37.5N 50.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 38.4N 47.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 118.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2018 22.0N 118.9W STRONG
12UTC 30.09.2018 24.0N 118.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 26.0N 117.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 27.5N 116.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 28.7N 115.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 103.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.2N 103.3W WEAK
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.8N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.5N 108.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 10.8N 110.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 10.9N 112.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 11.3N 115.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 12.2N 117.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 12.6N 120.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 13.6N 121.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 15.0N 123.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 16.3N 125.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 16.9N 127.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 18.1N 128.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 160.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2018 11.7N 160.4W WEAK
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.4N 163.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.7N 166.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.2N 168.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 13.4N 169.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 14.7N 170.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.4N 170.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.8N 169.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 21.7N 168.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 24.5N 165.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 27.5N 166.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 28.0N 166.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2018 29.5N 166.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.7N 129.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2018 11.7N 129.0W WEAK
00UTC 04.10.2018 10.6N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 10.5N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 16.3N 125.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2018 16.9N 127.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 18.1N 128.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 33.6N 26.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.10.2018 33.6N 26.5W WEAK
00UTC 05.10.2018 33.3N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 32.6N 24.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2018 31.7N 24.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 8.1N 151.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2018 8.1N 151.8W WEAK
00UTC 06.10.2018 8.1N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300359


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 11.4N 159.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 159.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 11.6N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 11.9N 165.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 12.4N 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.5N 168.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.9N 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.9N 168.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.1N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 160.8W.
TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 010400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 300253 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST SAT SEP 29 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WALAKA HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE THIS MORNING. THE BANDING FEATURE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT, THOUGH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0/30 KT OUT OF JTWC TO 2.5/35 KT
FROM HFO AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

WALAKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST (265 DEGREES) AT 13 KT. A
DEEP RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL STEER WALAKA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH SUNDAY, TAKING THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WALAKA WILL MAKE
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AS A DEEP NORTH
PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND STEADILY ERODES THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT, WALAKA WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO, OR OVER, JOHNSTON ATOLL AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THE DEEP TROUGH WILL
STALL ROUGHLY ALONG 171W LONGITUDE ON TUESDAY, AND AS INTERACTION
WITH THE TROUGH INCREASES, WALAKA WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD ON DAYS
FOUR AND FIVE. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS, WITH DIFFERENCES IN
FORWARD MOTION INCREASING THEREAFTER. THROUGH 72 HOURS, THE TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE, THE
FORECAST FORWARD MOTION HAS BEEN ACCELERATED TO FOLLOW THE TVCE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 300253
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Sat Sep 29 2018

The satellite presentation of Walaka has not changed significantly
since this morning. The banding feature to the east and south of the
center has become less distinct, though a large area of deep
convection has persisted near the center. Subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates range from 2.0/30 kt out of JTWC to 2.5/35 kt
from HFO and SAB. The initial intensity will be held at 35 kt for
this advisory.

Walaka continues to move toward the west (265 degrees) at 13 kt. A
deep ridge to the north will steer Walaka on a general westward
motion through Sunday, taking the cyclone well southwest of the main
Hawaiian Islands. Late Sunday through Monday night, Walaka will make
a gradual turn toward the northwest then north as a deep North
Pacific trough digs southward and steadily erodes the ridge. As a
result, Walaka will pass very close to, or over, Johnston Atoll as
early as Monday night and likely on Tuesday. The deep trough will
stall roughly along 171W longitude on Tuesday, and as interaction
with the trough increases, Walaka will accelerate northward on days
four and five. This should take the system across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. The track guidance
envelope is tightly clustered through 72 hours, with differences in
forward motion increasing thereafter. Through 72 hours, the track
forecast is essentially unchanged and lies near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance envelope. On days four and five, the
forecast forward motion has been accelerated to follow the TVCE
and HMON, which are slower than the GFS and faster than the ECMWF.

Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through the next three
days. Walaka will remain under low vertical wind shear and over SSTs
of around 29C through at least Monday and likely into early Tuesday.
In this environment, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows rapid
intensification during the next 48 hours, and the SHIPS rapid
intensification guidance for Walaka remains well above the
climatological mean through 72 hours. On days four and five,
interaction with the deep trough will create increasing vertical
wind shear that should lead to weakening. The intensity forecast was
changed little from the prior advisory and is close to LGEM between
SHIPS and HMON, near the middle of the guidance envelope. Walaka is
forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday, and along the forecast
track, hurricane conditions could be experienced on Johnston Atoll
as early as Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 11.4N 160.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 11.6N 162.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 11.9N 165.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 12.4N 167.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.5N 168.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 16.9N 169.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 22.9N 168.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 30.1N 168.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 300244 RRA
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
500 PM HST SAT SEP 29 2018

...WALAKA MOVING WESTWARD FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 160.5W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
WALAKA, AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.5 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 300244
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Walaka Advisory Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
500 PM HST Sat Sep 29 2018

...WALAKA MOVING WESTWARD FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 160.5W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should closely monitor the progress of
Walaka, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be needed tonight.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Walaka was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 160.5 West. Walaka is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through tomorrow, followed by a turn toward
the northwest Sunday night and Monday and a turn toward the north
early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is expected for the next two to three
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe



Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 300244 RRA
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
WALAKA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 160.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 160.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 159.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.6N 162.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 65NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.9N 165.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.4N 167.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.5N 168.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 85NW.


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 300244
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
WALAKA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WALAKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 160.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 160.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 159.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.6N 162.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 65NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.9N 165.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.4N 167.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.5N 168.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 169.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 120SE 95SW 95NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.9N 168.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 30.1N 168.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 160.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282051ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 11.5N 158.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 158.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 11.5N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 11.8N 164.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 12.5N 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.4N 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.5N 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.4N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.0N 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 159.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 01C (WALAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 527 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 282100).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 292107 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 29 2018

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSING FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
WITH A BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS. A SERIES OF SSMI AND SSMIS PASSES BETWEEN 1348 AND 1716
UTC SHOWED THIS STRUCTURE AND PROVIDED SOME INDICATION OF THE
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND SAB WERE CONSTRAINED TO
2.0/30 KT, WITH DATA T NUMBERS COMING IN AT 2.5/35 KT, AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FROM HFO WAS 2.5/35 KT. THESE INPUTS SUPPORT
INITIATING ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL STORM WALAKA, THE SIXTH TROPICAL
CYCLONE OF 2018 IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AND THE FIRST TO FORM
IN THE BASIN THIS YEAR.

WALAKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST (265 DEGREES) AT 13 KT. A WESTWARD
MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE WALAKA WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
CYCLONE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AS
A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND STEADILY ERODES THE
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, WALAKA WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO JOHNSTON ISLAND
AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY SOMETIME TUESDAY. THE DEEP
TROUGH WILL STALL ROUGHLY ALONG 171W LONGITUDE ON TUESDAY, CAUSING
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD. ON DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE, THE MOTION BECOMES UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 292107
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 29 2018

The tropical disturbance passing far south of the main Hawaiian
Islands has developed persistent deep convection near the center
with a banding feature developing within the eastern and southern
quadrants. A series of SSMI and SSMIS passes between 1348 and 1716
UTC showed this structure and provided some indication of the
location of the low level circulation center. Subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates from JTWC and SAB were constrained to
2.0/30 kt, with data T numbers coming in at 2.5/35 kt, and the
current intensity from HFO was 2.5/35 kt. These inputs support
initiating advisories for Tropical Storm Walaka, the sixth tropical
cyclone of 2018 in the Central Pacific basin and the first to form
in the basin this year.

Walaka is moving toward the west (265 degrees) at 13 kt. A westward
motion will continue for the next 36 hours or so as the system
remains south of a deep ridge. This will take Walaka well southwest
of the main Hawaiian Islands. Late Sunday through Monday night, the
cyclone will make a gradual turn toward the northwest then north as
a deep North Pacific trough digs southward and steadily erodes the
ridge. As a result, Walaka will pass very close to Johnston Island
as early as Monday night and likely sometime Tuesday. The deep
trough will stall roughly along 171W longitude on Tuesday, causing
the tropical cyclone to accelerate northward. On days four and
five, the motion becomes uncertain due to model differences in the
handling of the interaction between Walaka with the deep trough. The
track forecast follows a rather tightly clustered guidance envelope
through Tuesday, then favors the HMON, which is closer to TVCE than
the faster GFS and slower ECMWF. Due to the uncertainty in the long
term motion, interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor Walaka.

Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through the next three
days, and Walaka is forecast to remain intense through day five.
Walaka will remain under low vertical wind shear and over SSTs of
around 29C through at least Monday, and likely into Tuesday. In this
environment, the SHIPS rapid intensification guidance for Walaka is
well above the climatological mean. The intensity forecast is close
to LGEM and ICON through the initial 48 hours and remains near the
HWRF and ICON, but below LGEM, thereafter. Walaka is forecast to
become a hurricane by Sunday, and along the forecast track,
hurricane conditions could be experienced on Johnston Island as
early as Monday night. Some weakening is indicated beyond Tuesday
due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 11.5N 159.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 11.5N 161.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.8N 164.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.5N 166.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.4N 168.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 16.5N 169.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 21.4N 168.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 27.0N 168.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 292058 RRA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 29 2018

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSING FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
WITH A BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS. A SERIES OF SSMI AND SSMIS PASSES BETWEEN 1348 AND 1716
UTC SHOWED THIS STRUCTURE AND PROVIDED SOME INDICATION OF THE
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND SAB WERE CONSTRAINED TO
2.0/30 KT, WITH DATA T NUMBERS COMING IN AT 2.5/35 KT, AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FROM HFO WAS 2.5/35 KT. THESE INPUTS SUPPORT
INITIATING ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL WALAKA, THE SIXTH TROPICAL
CYCLONE OF 2018 IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AND THE FIRST TO FORM
IN THE BASIN THIS YEAR.

WALAKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST (265 DEGREES) AT 13 KT. A WESTWARD
MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE WALAKA WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
CYCLONE WILL MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AS
A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND STEADILY ERODES THE
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, WALAKA WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO JOHNSTON ISLAND
AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY SOMETIME TUESDAY. THE DEEP
TROUGH WILL STALL ROUGHLY ALONG 171W LONGITUDE ON TUESDAY, CAUSING
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD. ON DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE, THE MOTION BECOMES UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN WALAKA WITH THE DEEP TROUGH. THE


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 292058
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Walaka Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 29 2018

The tropical disturbance passing far south of the main Hawaiian
Islands has developed persistent deep convection near the center
with a banding feature developing within the eastern and southern
quadrants. A series of SSMI and SSMIS passes between 1348 and 1716
UTC showed this structure and provided some indication of the
location of the low level circulation center. Subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates from JTWC and SAB were constrained to
2.0/30 kt, with data T numbers coming in at 2.5/35 kt, and the
current intensity from HFO was 2.5/35 kt. These inputs support
initiating advisories for Tropical Walaka, the sixth tropical
cyclone of 2018 in the Central Pacific basin and the first to form
in the basin this year.

Walaka is moving toward the west (265 degrees) at 13 kt. A westward
motion will continue for the next 36 hours or so as the system
remains south of a deep ridge. This will take Walaka well southwest
of the main Hawaiian Islands. Late Sunday through Monday night, the
cyclone will make a gradual turn toward the northwest then north as
a deep North Pacific trough digs southward and steadily erodes the
ridge. As a result, Walaka will pass very close to Johnston Island
as early as Monday night and likely sometime Tuesday. The deep
trough will stall roughly along 171W longitude on Tuesday, causing
the tropical cyclone to accelerate northward. On days four and
five, the motion becomes uncertain due to model differences in the
handling of the interaction between Walaka with the deep trough. The
track forecast follows a rather tightly clustered guidance envelope
through Tuesday, then favors the HMON, which is closer to TVCE than
the faster GFS and slower ECMWF. Due to the uncertainty in the long
term motion, interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor Walaka.

Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through the next three
days, and Walaka is forecast to remain intense through day five.
Walaka will remain under low vertical wind shear and over SSTs of
around 29C through at least Monday, and likely into Tuesday. In this
environment, the SHIPS rapid intensification guidance for Walaka is
well above the climatological mean. The intensity forecast is close
to LGEM and ICON through the initial 48 hours and remains near the
HWRF and ICON, but below LGEM, thereafter. Walaka is forecast to
become a hurricane by Sunday, and along the forecast track,
hurricane conditions could be experienced on Johnston Island as
early as Monday night. Some weakening is indicated beyond Tuesday
due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 11.5N 159.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 11.5N 161.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.8N 164.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.5N 166.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.4N 168.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 16.5N 169.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 21.4N 168.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 27.0N 168.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 292047
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 29 2018

...WALAKA FORMS FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND IS MOVING
AWAY TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 159.1W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
WALAKA, AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WALAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 159.1 WEST. WALAKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

...
FORECASTER WROE


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 292046 RRA
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
WALAKA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 159.1W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 50SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 159.1W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 158.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.5N 161.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.8N 164.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 65NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.5N 166.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.4N 168.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N 169.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 120SE 95SW 95NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 292046
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALAKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
WALAKA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 159.1W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 50SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 159.1W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 158.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.5N 161.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.8N 164.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 65NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.5N 166.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.4N 168.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N 169.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 120SE 95SW 95NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N 168.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 27.0N 168.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 159.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE