Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUBAN-18
in Yemen

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-10-14 11:32

WTIO51 PGTW 140900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181014061536
2018101406 05A LUBAN 026 01 295 07 SATL 020
T000 158N 0521E 030
T012 162N 0508E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25

2018-10-14 10:32

WTIO51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181014061536
2018101406 05A LUBAN 026 01 295 07 SATL 020
T000 158N 0521E 030
T012 162N 0508E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 45
0518101212 146N 571E 45
0518101218 147N 565E 40
0518101300 148N 558E 40
0518101306 148N 553E 45
0518101312 149N 546E 45
0518101318 151N 537E 40
0518101400 155N 528E 35
0518101406 158N 521E 30
NNNN

2018-10-14 10:32

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE, RAGGED, AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN YEMEN JUST NORTHEAST OF
HASWAYN. THE SYSTEM HAS REDUCED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION INTENSITY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND INTO THE
RUGGED AND DRY TERRAIN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

2018-10-14 05:32

WTIO51 PGTW 140300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181014012011
2018101400 05A LUBAN 025 01 295 10 SATL 025
T000 155N 0528E 035 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 160N 0512E 030
T024 164N 0500E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.0N 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.4N 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 52.4E.

2018-10-14 05:32

WTIO51 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181014012011
2018101400 05A LUBAN 025 01 295 10 SATL 025
T000 155N 0528E 035 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 160N 0512E 030
T024 164N 0500E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.0N 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.4N 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 45
0518101212 146N 571E 45
0518101218 147N 565E 40
0518101300 148N 558E 40
0518101306 148N 553E 45
0518101312 149N 546E 45
0518101318 151N 537E 40
0518101400 155N 528E 35
NNNN

2018-10-14 05:32

WTIO31 PGTW 140300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.0N 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.4N 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS

2018-10-14 05:32

WTIO31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.0N 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.4N 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
BEING OBSCURED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO A RAIN BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140031Z GMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS IN A REGION OF COOLER
BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (27
CELSIUS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 05A IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATING
SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-13 22:35

WTIO51 PGTW 132100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013193302
2018101318 05A LUBAN 024 01 275 09 SATL 025
T000 150N 0537E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 154N 0521E 045 R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 159N 0505E 035
T036 164N 0496E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.4N 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

2018-10-13 22:35

WTIO51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013193302
2018101318 05A LUBAN 024 01 275 09 SATL 025
T000 150N 0537E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 154N 0521E 045 R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 159N 0505E 035
T036 164N 0496E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.4N 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9N 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.4N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH
OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 45
0518101212 146N 571E 45
0518101218 147N 565E 40
0518101300 148N 558E 40
0518101306 148N 553E 45
0518101312 149N 546E 45
0518101318 150N 537E 40
NNNN

2018-10-13 22:35

WTIO31 PGTW 132100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.4N 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9N 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.4N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-10-13 22:35

WTIO31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.4N 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9N 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.4N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION
WELL TO THE NORTH, ALONG THE COAST OF OMAN. A 131755Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WAS USED TO IDENTIFY THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 05A IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND
WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF MUKALLA,
YEMEN JUST AFTER TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE TRACK WILL TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. LOW (05-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN
THE INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM
WHICH DEPICTS A WESTWARD TRACK, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-13 18:33

WTIO51 PGTW 131500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013124228
2018101312 05A LUBAN 023 01 280 07 SATL 055
T000 149N 0544E 045 R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 151N 0527E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 153N 0509E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 157N 0497E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.1N 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-13 18:33

WTIO31 PGTW 131500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.1N 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.3N 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-10-13 16:33

WTIO51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013124228
2018101312 05A LUBAN 023 01 280 07 SATL 055
T000 149N 0544E 045 R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 151N 0527E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 153N 0509E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 157N 0497E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.1N 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.3N 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.7N 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM SOUTH
OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 45
0518101212 146N 571E 45
0518101218 147N 565E 40
0518101300 148N 558E 40
0518101306 148N 551E 45
0518101312 149N 544E 45
NNNN

2018-10-13 16:33

WTIO31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.1N 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.3N 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.7N 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM SOUTH
OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS RAIN
BANDS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND SWEEP ACROSS OMAN AND EASTERN YEMEN.
TRANSVERSE BANDS SHARPLY OUTLINE THE NORTHERN CIRRUS STEAKS, AN
INDICATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS CENTERED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A LARGE, RAGGED, AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW. TC 05A IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL ACCELERATE ON A GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL EAST-NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA,
YEMEN AROUND TAU 20. LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FUEL A SMALL
WINDOW OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED AND
DRY TERRAIN OF YEMEN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TC LUBAN DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z,
140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-13 11:32

WTIO51 PGTW 130900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013071150
2018101306 05A LUBAN 022 01 270 07 SATL 025
T000 148N 0551E 045 R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 148N 0535E 050 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 150N 0517E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 152N 0501E 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 159N 0491E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-13 11:32

WTIO31 PGTW 130900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.0N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-13 10:32

WTIO51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013071150
2018101306 05A LUBAN 022 01 270 07 SATL 025
T000 148N 0551E 045 R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 148N 0535E 050 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 150N 0517E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 152N 0501E 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 159N 0491E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.0N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.2N 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.9N 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 54.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 45
0518101212 146N 571E 45
0518101218 147N 565E 40
0518101300 148N 558E 40
0518101306 148N 551E 45
NNNN

2018-10-13 10:32

WTIO31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.0N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.2N 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.9N 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 54.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, HAVE STARTED TO
RE-CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP TIGHTER INTO A PARTLY-EXPOSED, BROAD, AND
RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS CENTERED
ON THE LLC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
IT MAKES LANDFALL EAST-NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA, YEMEN NEAR TAU 30.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD.
LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FUEL A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 55
KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED AND DRY
TERRAIN OF YEMEN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TC LUBAN,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-13 05:32

WTIO51 PGTW 130300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013012028
2018101300 05A LUBAN 021 01 270 07 SATL 030
T000 146N 0557E 040 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 146N 0542E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 147N 0525E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 150N 0507E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 154N 0494E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 165N 0480E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 55.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 55.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

2018-10-13 05:32

WTIO51 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013012028
2018101300 05A LUBAN 021 01 270 07 SATL 030
T000 146N 0557E 040 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 146N 0542E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 147N 0525E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 150N 0507E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 154N 0494E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 165N 0480E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 55.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 55.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.0N 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4N 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.5N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 45
0518101212 146N 571E 45
0518101218 146N 564E 40
0518101300 146N 557E 40
NNNN

2018-10-13 05:32

WTIO31 PGTW 130300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 55.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 55.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-13 05:32

WTIO31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 55.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 55.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.0N 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4N 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.5N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ISOLATED TO A
RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 122218Z AMSR2 36 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS WEAK BANDING NEAR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
40 KNOT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 27-28 CELSIUS BUT WARMS TO 29-30 CELSIUS ALONG
THE COAST OF YEMEN. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE
WILL REMAIN ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL,
NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN AROUND TAU 36. DURING THAT PERIOD, WARM
COASTAL WATERS AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC
05A TO INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS AND THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 30 KTS INTENSITY BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE MODEL TRACKS BEGIN TO SPREAD DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU
36 AND FAIR CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND
140300Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-12 23:47

WTIO51 PGTW 122100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012200020
2018101218 05A LUBAN 020 01 270 07 SATL 030
T000 146N 0564E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 145N 0551E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 146N 0535E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 147N 0515E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 151N 0499E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 160N 0480E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-10-12 23:47

WTIO31 PGTW 122100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-12 23:35

WTIO51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012200020
2018101218 05A LUBAN 020 01 270 07 SATL 030
T000 146N 0564E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 145N 0551E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 146N 0535E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 147N 0515E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 151N 0499E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 160N 0480E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.7N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.1N 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 45
0518101212 146N 571E 45
0518101218 146N 564E 40
NNNN

2018-10-12 23:35

WTIO31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.7N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.1N 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY USING A 121713Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE TO IDENTIFY WEAK BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED JUST BELOW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES TO REFLECT
THE DECAYING CONVECTION. TC 05A REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND WEAK
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IS AROUND 27-28 CELSIUS BUT SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT HAS ALLOWED FOR COOL UPWELLING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING THE CYCLONE HAS EXPERIENCED. TC 05A IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AND HAS ACCELERATED BY 4 KTS IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, BEGIN
TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF MUKALLA,
YEMEN JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48. ONCE OVER LAND, TC 05A SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE TO 30 KTS BY TAU 72. WARMER SST NEAR THE COAST AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TC 05A TO INTENSIFY
TO 55 KTS BEFORE LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AS THE
CYCLONE BEGINS ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z
AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-12 17:32

WTIO51 PGTW 121500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012133912
2018101212 05A LUBAN 019 01 270 03 SATL 040
T000 146N 0571E 045 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 145N 0561E 045 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 144N 0546E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 146N 0527E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 149N 0508E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 162N 0487E 035
T096 173N 0481E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.5N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

2018-10-12 17:32

WTIO51 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012133912
2018101212 05A LUBAN 019 01 270 03 SATL 040
T000 146N 0571E 045 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 145N 0561E 045 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 144N 0546E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 146N 0527E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 149N 0508E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 162N 0487E 035
T096 173N 0481E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.5N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.4N 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.6N 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.9N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.2N 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.3N 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 45
0518101212 146N 571E 45
NNNN

2018-10-12 17:32

WTIO31 PGTW 121500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.5N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.4N 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-12 17:32

WTIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.5N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.4N 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.6N 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.9N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.2N 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.3N 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC
05A HAS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 121118Z
37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC
WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A IS STILL EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, ELONGATE, AND BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. AS TC 05A TRACKS WESTWARD
IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MINOR
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL WITH TC 05A RE-INTENSIFYING TO 60
KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL TC 05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. ONCE INLAND, TC 05A WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AND REACH AND INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-12 11:32

WTIO51 PGTW 120900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012074259
2018101206 05A LUBAN 018 02 270 03 SATL 045
T000 146N 0574E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 146N 0565E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 145N 0551E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 146N 0534E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 149N 0517E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 161N 0488E 040
T096 176N 0479E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-10-12 11:32

WTIO51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012074259
2018101206 05A LUBAN 018 02 270 03 SATL 045
T000 146N 0574E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 146N 0565E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 145N 0551E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 146N 0534E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 149N 0517E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 161N 0488E 040
T096 176N 0479E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.6N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6N 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.9N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.1N 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.6N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 57.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101118 145N 578E 60
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101200 146N 577E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 50
0518101206 146N 574E 50
NNNN

2018-10-12 11:32

WTIO31 PGTW 120900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.6N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-12 11:32

WTIO31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.6N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6N 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.9N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.1N 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.6N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 57.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC
05A HAS A LARGE RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
ROTATING AROUND IT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 120528Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS THE POORLY DEFINED EYE FEATURE WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 120228Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
41 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS WEAK POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN
TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. TC 05A WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. AS TC 05A
TRACKS WESTWARD IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. THESE WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MINOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
LANDFALL WITH TC 05A RE-INTENSIFYING TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER
LANDFALL TC 05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST. ONCE INLAND, TC 05A WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND REACH
25 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS
(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

2018-10-12 05:31

WTIO51 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012013259
2018101200 05A LUBAN 017 02 290 03 SATL 060
T000 146N 0576E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 147N 0568E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 147N 0556E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 147N 0541E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 148N 0524E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 157N 0494E 040
T096 176N 0483E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.7N 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.7N 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.7N 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.8N 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.7N 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.6N 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 57.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 579E 65
0518101200 146N 576E 50
0518101200 146N 576E 50
NNNN

2018-10-12 05:31

WTIO31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.7N 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.7N 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.7N 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.8N 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.7N 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.6N 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 57.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A SYSTEM WHICH HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS WITH A BROAD LLCC, WHICH, WHILE STILL WELL DEFINED, IS
LACKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BROAD
AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LLCC. AN 112136Z AMSR2 36
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ASSISTED IN PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER, AND
DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION DEFINING THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE AND IS NOW ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, BASED OFF THE PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS), A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS
AND AN AUTOMATED DVORAK OF T3.3 (50 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA WITH LOW VWS (5-10
KNOTS), IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10
KNOTS), STRONG EQUATORWARD AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINAL AT 27 TO 28 DEG C, BUT OHC IS LOW. AS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR SOME TIME OVER THIS AREA IT
HAS DRAWN COOLER WATERS TO THE SURFACE AND CHOKED OFF ITS ENERGY
SUPPLY, OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
AND LEADING TO THE RAPID WEAKENING. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING
WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING PATTER BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL START TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST AS
THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SAUDI ARABIA WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE YEMENI COAST
EAST OF MUKALLA AROUND TAU 60 AND AFTER LANDFALL TRACK INLAND WHILE
MAKING A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. TC
05A IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE UPWELLED
COOLER WATERS. A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAK INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE COOL SST
POOL AND INTO WARMER WATERS ALONG THE COASTLINE, WHILE STILL
EXPERIENCING LOW VWS AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH A
SPREAD OF ONLY 90NM AT TAU 48, WITH A TIGHT GROUPING NEAR THE
CONSENSUS TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTIO32
PGTW) ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

2018-10-11 22:33

WTIO51 PGTW 112100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011193000
2018101118 05A LUBAN 016 02 270 01 SATL 060
T000 145N 0578E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD
125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 146N 0572E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 146N 0562E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 147N 0548E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 148N 0531E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 156N 0500E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 171N 0486E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-11 22:33

WTIO51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011193000
2018101118 05A LUBAN 016 02 270 01 SATL 060
T000 145N 0578E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 146N 0572E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 146N 0562E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 147N 0548E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 148N 0531E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 156N 0500E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 171N 0486E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.6N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.6N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.7N 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.6N 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 65
0518101118 145N 578E 65
NNNN

2018-10-11 22:33

WTIO31 PGTW 112100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.6N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-11 22:33

WTIO31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.6N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.6N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.7N 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.6N 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 05A REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER, AND THERE IS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE EIR
IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN 111331Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, AND IS BELOW THE KNES
ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC
05A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
AND HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG WITH A MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS UNFAVORABLE, AND TC 05A IS MOVING SLOWLY, DRAWING
MARGINAL ENERGY FROM THE OCEAN WHERE IT HAS ALREADY CAUSED COLD
WATER TO UPWELL FROM BELOW THE MIXED LAYER. ADDITIONALLY, TC 05A IS
ENTRAINING DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, WHICH IS ALSO
LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD
AND REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXTEND, ALLOWING TC 05A TO TRACK WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND ACCELERATE AFTER TAU
24. TC 05A WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN INITIAL TAUS THEN INTENSITY WILL
HOLD CONSTANT AT 60 KTS THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE QUICKLY
AND CAN USE THE SUPERFICIAL SURFACE MIXED LAYER OF WARM SSTS FOR
FUEL. THE WARM SSTS, LOW VWS, AND MODERATE OUTFLOW WILL COMPETE WITH
DRY AIR TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW, THE DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM FURTHER. TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72
WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 45 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05A WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS REMAINED IN CONSISTENT LOCATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN.
FROM TAU 24 TO 72, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 05A WILL
TRACK WESTWARD WITH A 190NM SPREAD AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL DUE TO
THE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) MODEL DIVERGING UNREALISTICALLY TO THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUS OUTLIERS ECMWF AND NAVGEM HAVE CONVERGED TOWARDS THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS AGREE THAT TC 05A WILL TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, BUT VARY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION OF RECURVATURE. THERE IS A MODEL SPREAD OF 432 NM BY
TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z,
121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING (WTIO32 PGTW) ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

2018-10-11 17:34

WTIO51 PGTW 111500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011132836
2018101112 05A LUBAN 015 02 270 02 SATL 040
T000 145N 0579E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
115 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 146N 0574E 060 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 147N 0566E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 147N 0554E 060 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 149N 0538E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 155N 0504E 045 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 171N 0487E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-11 17:34

WTIO51 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011132836
2018101112 05A LUBAN 015 02 270 02 SATL 040
T000 145N 0579E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 146N 0574E 060 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 147N 0566E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 147N 0554E 060 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 149N 0538E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 155N 0504E 045 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 171N 0487E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.6N 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.7N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.7N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.9N 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.5N 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.1N 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
0518101112 145N 579E 65
NNNN

2018-10-11 17:34

WTIO31 PGTW 111500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.6N 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-11 17:34

WTIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.6N 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.7N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.7N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.9N 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.5N 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.1N 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC
05A REMAINS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS SPARSE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN 110922Z
36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A LARGE AND RAGGED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ALONG WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
ELONGATE AND ALLOW TC 05A TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. AS TC 05A TRACKS WESTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST WITH INTENSITY REMAINING CONSTANT BETWEEN TAU 12 AND
TAU 36. TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 WITH AN
INTENSITY NEAR 50 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05A WILL ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED AND DIVERGES FROM THE INITIAL POSITION TO TAU 24 WITH A
SPREAD OF 74 NM WITH AFUM INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NVGM
INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FROM TAU 24 TO 72 MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH A 100NM SPREAD AT
THE TIME OF LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 72 MODELS AGREE THAT TC 05A WILL TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A MODEL SPREAD OF 195 NM BY TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY
FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B
(TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM.//
NNNN

2018-10-11 11:32

WTIO51 PGTW 110900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011075752
2018101106 05A LUBAN 014 02 270 02 SATL 045
T000 145N 0581E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD
100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 145N 0577E 065 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD
100 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 146N 0570E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 147N 0561E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 148N 0545E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 152N 0511E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 165N 0489E 035
T120 183N 0486E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

2018-10-11 11:32

WTIO51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011075752
2018101106 05A LUBAN 014 02 270 02 SATL 045
T000 145N 0581E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 145N 0577E 065 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 146N 0570E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 147N 0561E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 148N 0545E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 152N 0511E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 165N 0489E 035
T120 183N 0486E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.5N 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.6N 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.7N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.8N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.2N 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5N 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101100 145N 583E 75
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
0518101106 145N 581E 70
NNNN

2018-10-11 11:32

WTIO31 PGTW 110900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.5N 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-11 11:32

WTIO31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.5N 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.6N 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.7N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.8N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.2N 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5N 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC
05A IS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM BUT HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN 110548Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, AN
110547Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS, AND AN ADT CI OF T4.1 (67
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A IS SLOWLY
TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND ELONGATE AND ALLOW TC 05A TO
TRACK WESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. AS TC 05A TRACKS
WESTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT TAU 72
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05A WILL ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES FROM THE INITIAL POSITION TO TAU 24 WITH A SPREAD OF 77 NM
WITH AFUM INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NVGM INDICATING A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FROM TAU 24 TO 72 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 72 MODELS AGREE THAT TC
05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MODEL
SPREAD OF 290 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY FAVORING
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS
(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

2018-10-11 05:39

WTIO51 PGTW 110300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011014710
2018101100 05A LUBAN 013 02 270 04 SATL 030
T000 145N 0581E 075 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD
115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 146N 0576E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 146N 0570E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 147N 0561E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 147N 0550E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 149N 0518E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 158N 0490E 035
T120 173N 0483E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-10-11 05:39

WTIO51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011014710
2018101100 05A LUBAN 013 02 270 04 SATL 030
T000 145N 0581E 075 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 146N 0576E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 146N 0570E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 147N 0561E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 147N 0550E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 149N 0518E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 158N 0490E 035
T120 173N 0483E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.6N 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.6N 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.7N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.7N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.9N 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.8N 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.3N 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101100 145N 581E 75
0518101100 145N 581E 75
0518101100 145N 581E 75
NNNN

2018-10-11 05:39

WTIO31 PGTW 110300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.6N 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-11 05:39

WTIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.6N 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.6N 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.7N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.7N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.9N 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.8N 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.3N 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT STILL
MAINTAINS A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND IS SLIGHTLY UNDER A 102109Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 86 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, BALANCED BY DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN AIR BEING ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM AND SLOW MOTION IN AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29C) BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), LEADING TO THE
DISSOLVING ORGANIZATION. THE CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO
REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE
TO THE ENE, LEADING TO SLOW DRIFTING WESTWARD MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU
30, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTH, CAUSING TC
05A TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. BY TAU 84, TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL TRACK MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE
INITIAL SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW OHC AND DRY
AIR WILL COMPETE WITH THE FAVORABLE LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO
CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 60 KTS BY TAU 24. TC 05A WILL MAINTAIN 60
KTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48 AS IT ACCELERATES AND ONLY NEEDS THE
SUPERFICIAL WARM MIXED LAYER OF THE OCEAN TO FUEL CONVECTION, AND AS
THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS PERSISTS. IN LATER TAUS, AS THE STR
BUILDS TO THE NORTH, THE CURRENTLY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
WILL DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAND, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72. BY TAU 120, TC 05A WILL HAVE
WEAKENED TO 20 KTS OVER THE DRY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF YEMEN. THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, OVER 200 NM BY TAU 96, JUST
AFTER LANDFALL. THE ECMWF, COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM),
AND HWRF TRACKS ARE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO
PREDICTING A STRONGER STR. THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED MOSTLY
CONSISTENT IN ITS POSITION BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT RUNS.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LATER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM (WTIO32 PGTW).//
NNNN

2018-10-10 23:32

WTIO51 PGTW 102100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010202502
2018101018 05A LUBAN 012 02 295 02 SATL 015
T000 145N 0585E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 110 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 147N 0580E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 147N 0575E 070 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 148N 0569E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 149N 0557E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 150N 0529E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 153N 0498E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 162N 0485E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

2018-10-10 23:32

WTIO51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010202502
2018101018 05A LUBAN 012 02 295 02 SATL 015
T000 145N 0585E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 147N 0580E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 147N 0575E 070 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 148N 0569E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 149N 0557E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 150N 0529E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 153N 0498E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 162N 0485E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.7N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.7N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8N 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.9N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.3N 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.2N 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101012 144N 587E 80
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
0518101018 145N 585E 75
NNNN

2018-10-10 23:32

WTIO31 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.7N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-10 23:32

WTIO31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.7N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.7N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8N 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.9N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.3N 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.2N 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE, BUT DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN THE EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND IS SLIGHTLY UNDER A 101715Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81 KTS AND THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS).
THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BALANCED BY DRY AIR FROM THE
ARABIAN AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM AND LEADING TO THE
WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO
REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE
TO THE ENE, LEADING TO SLOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. AFTER
TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTH, CAUSING
TC 05A TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. BY TAU 84, TC 05A WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL
TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY
AT 75 KTS THROUGH TAU 12. TC 05A WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 65 KTS BY
TAU 36 AND HOLD THAT INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 72. AS THE STR BUILDS
TO THE NORTH, THE CURRENTLY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL
DIMINISH AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72. BY TAU 120, TC 05A
WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO 25 KTS OVER THE DRY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
YEMEN. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, OVER 175 NM BY
TAU 96, JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE ECMWF, COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND COAMPS-
TC (NAVGEM), AND HWRF TRACKS ARE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS
DUE TO PREDICTING A STRONGER STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED
BETWEEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B
(TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-10 17:40

WTIO51 PGTW 101500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010131255
2018101012 05A LUBAN 011 02 295 04 SATL 020
T000 144N 0585E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD
115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 146N 0580E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 148N 0575E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 150N 0570E 065 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 152N 0562E 065 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 155N 0537E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 156N 0505E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 168N 0490E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

2018-10-10 17:40

WTIO31 PGTW 101500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-10 16:34

WTIO51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010131255
2018101012 05A LUBAN 011 02 295 04 SATL 020
T000 144N 0585E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 146N 0580E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 148N 0575E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 150N 0570E 065 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 152N 0562E 065 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 155N 0537E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 156N 0505E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 168N 0490E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.8N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.0N 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.2N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.5N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.6N 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.8N 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101012 144N 585E 75
0518101012 144N 585E 75
0518101012 144N 585E 75
NNNN

2018-10-10 16:34

WTIO31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.8N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.0N 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.2N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.5N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.6N 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.8N 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY TOWARD THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED
CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE 101030Z 1-KM VISIBLE IMAGERY THAT IS ADJUSTED
FOR A SMALL SLANT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE 101216Z GPM GMI PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE TO THE ENE. THE COMBINED EFFECT IS
RESULTING IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUBAN WILL
TRACK MORE WESTWARD AND AT A FASTER RATE AS THE STR TO THE ENE
REORIENTS AND BUILDS. BY TAU 84, TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 75 KTS
THEN DOWN TO 65 KTS AFTER TAU 12 AND INTO TAU 72; AFTERWARD, RISING
VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT
WILL BE WEAKENED TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE DRY TERRAIN OF YEMEN. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT TO OVER 270 NM BY TAU 120.
THIS FORECAST IS LAID LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF,
EEMN, HWRF, AND CTCX SOLUTION OFFERING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN
ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR. GIVEN THE LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE
TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-10 11:32

WTIO51 PGTW 100900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010073612
2018101006 05A LUBAN 010 02 310 05 SATL 025
T000 142N 0589E 075 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD
170 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 144N 0584E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 146N 0579E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 147N 0575E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 148N 0569E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD
110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 151N 0547E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 153N 0513E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 158N 0494E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 58.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

2018-10-10 11:32

WTIO51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010073612
2018101006 05A LUBAN 010 02 310 05 SATL 025
T000 142N 0589E 075 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 144N 0584E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 146N 0579E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 147N 0575E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 148N 0569E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 151N 0547E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 153N 0513E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 158N 0494E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 58.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 58.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.6N 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.7N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8N 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.1N 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.3N 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.8N 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518100918 137N 597E 60
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101000 139N 593E 65
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
0518101006 142N 589E 75
NNNN

2018-10-10 11:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 58.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 58.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-10 11:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 58.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 58.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.6N 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.7N 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8N 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.1N 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.3N 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.8N 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION DEEPENED AND SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
AN EVOLVING EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT IS ADJUSTED FOR A SMALL
SLANT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 100254Z
37GHZ SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND CIMS
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE TO THE ENE. THE COMBINED EFFECT IS
RESULTING IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUBAN WILL
TRACK MORE WESTWARD AND AT A FASTER RATE AS THE STR TO THE ENE
REORIENTS AND BUILDS. BY TAU 96, TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU
36; AFTERWARD, RISING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT WILL BE WEAKENED TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE DRY
TERRAIN OF YEMEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT,
UP TO 250 NM BY TAU 120 WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS HEADING
MORE POLEWARD TOWARD SALALAH, AND THE MINORITY - INCLUDING ECMWF,
HWRF, AND CTCX - OFFERING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS
LAID CLOSER TO THE LATTER SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR.
GIVEN THE LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z,
110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS
(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-10 06:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.4N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.7N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.8N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.8N 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7N 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.9N 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM,
WITH A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO REVEAL ITSELF AS OF
100000Z, WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CLOUD COVERED LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
100001Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A MID-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS SITUATED IN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS.
SSTS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR, WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED NEAR 27-28 CELSIUS, REFLECTIVE OF UPWELLING AS
THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUGHT BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING RIDGES OVER
CENTRAL SAUDI ARABIA AND WESTERN INDIA AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTH
WHICH HAS HELPED DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE STR. THE WEAK STEERING
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS STR OVER INDIA
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. BY TAU 36, THE STR OVER
SAUDI ARABIA WILL RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TC 05A, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TURN ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE AFTER TAU
48. DUE TO THE UPWELLING OF COOL WATERS TO THE SURFACE AND THE SLOW
FORECAST MOVEMENT, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AT 70 KNOTS
THROUGH TAU 36, WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAKENING AT TAU 48. AFTER
ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE WEST, TC LUBAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES INTO WARMER WATERS AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA,
YEMEN AROUND TAU 100 AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH A
LARGE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, ESPECIALLY BEYOND TAU 48.
THE U.S. MODELS (NAVGEM, GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM) AS WELL AS THE EGRR
MODEL INDICATE A LANDFALL NEAR THE YEMEN-OMAN BORDER REGION BY TAU
96. THE MESOSCALE MODELS (HWRF, COAMS-TC) AND THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE COMPRISE THE OTHER SOLUTION, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO A LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF MUKALLA NEAR TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE
ECMWF AND MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B
(TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY IN
REMARKS TO MATCH WARNING TEXT.//
NNNN

2018-10-10 05:32

WTIO51 PGTW 100300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010015459
2018101000 05A LUBAN 009 02 295 07 SATL 060
T000 141N 0591E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD
115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 144N 0584E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 146N 0578E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 147N 0572E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 148N 0564E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD
110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 148N 0546E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 147N 0516E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 149N 0487E 065 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---

2018-10-10 05:32

WTIO51 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010015459
2018101000 05A LUBAN 009 02 295 07 SATL 060
T000 141N 0591E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 144N 0584E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 146N 0578E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 147N 0572E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 148N 0564E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 148N 0546E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 147N 0516E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 149N 0487E 065 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.4N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.7N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.8N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.8N 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7N 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.9N 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 138N 598E 60
0518100918 138N 598E 60
0518101000 141N 591E 65
0518101000 141N 591E 65
0518101000 141N 591E 65
NNNN

2018-10-10 05:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.4N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-10 05:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.4N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.7N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.8N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.8N 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7N 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.9N 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM,
WITH A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO REVEAL ITSELF AS OF
100000Z, WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CLOUD COVERED LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
100001Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A MID-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS SITUATED IN A
OVERALL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY AND LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VWS. SSTS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR, WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ESTIMATED NEAR 27-28 CELSIUS, REFLECTIVE OF
UPWELLING AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
PAST 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUGHT BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING
RIDGES OVER CENTRAL SAUDI ARABIA AND WESTERN INDIA AND A WEAK TROUGH
TO THE NORTH WHICH HAS HELPED DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE STR. THE WEAK
STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
STR OVER INDIA STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. BY TAU
36, THE STR OVER SAUDI ARABIA WILL RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TC
05A, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND
ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE UPWELLING OF COOL WATERS TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SLOW FORECAST MOVEMENT, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEADY AT 70 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36, WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF
WEAKENING AT TAU 48. AFTER ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE WEST, TC LUBAN
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER WATERS AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA, YEMEN AROUND TAU 100 AND
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH A LARGE BIFURCATION IN THE
MODEL TRACKERS, ESPECIALLY BEYOND TAU 48. THE U.S. MODELS (NAVGEM,
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM) AS WELL AS THE EGRR MODEL INDICATE A
LANDFALL NEAR THE YEMEN-OMAN BORDER REGION BY TAU 96. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS (HWRF, COAMS-TC) AND THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE COMPRISE
THE OTHER SOLUTION, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO A LANDFALL JUST WEST OF
MUKALLA NEAR TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B
(TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-09 23:34

WTIO51 PGTW 092100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009200947
2018100918 05A LUBAN 008 02 335 08 SATL 030
T000 141N 0599E 060 R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 135 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 144N 0592E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 146N 0585E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 148N 0580E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 149N 0574E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 151N 0557E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD
090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 150N 0529E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD
060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 149N 0496E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.9E

2018-10-09 23:34

WTIO51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009200947
2018100918 05A LUBAN 008 02 335 08 SATL 030
T000 141N 0599E 060 R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 144N 0592E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 146N 0585E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 148N 0580E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 149N 0574E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 151N 0557E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 150N 0529E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 149N 0496E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.4N 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.6N 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.8N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.9N 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.1N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.9N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100900 128N 608E 50
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100906 132N 604E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100912 134N 602E 55
0518100918 141N 599E 60
0518100918 141N 599E 60
NNNN

2018-10-09 23:34

WTIO31 PGTW 092100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.4N 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-09 23:34

WTIO31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.4N 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.6N 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.8N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.9N 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.1N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.9N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH THE STRONGEST
RAIN BANDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
091737Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH HAS A WARM BRIGHTNESS
TEMPERATURE REGION JUST EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS JUST BELOW DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH A 091735Z CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 59 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), ONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
OTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD
THAN IT HAS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05A WILL TRACK
WESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS. BY TAU 120, THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 80 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS SSTS COOL AND DRY AIR FROM YEMEN GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
CIRCULATION. THE DISTANCE SEPARATING THE BIFURCATED MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE
DIFFERENT MODELS HAS NOT CHANGED WITH ECMWF AND COAMPS-GFS STILL
SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS. SPREAD IS STILL LARGE WITH 385 NM BETWEEN
THE SOUTHERNMOST (COAMPS-GFS) AND NORTHERNMOST (GALWEM) MEMBERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS, CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z
AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-09 16:33

WTIO51 PGTW 091500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009130141
2018100912 05A LUBAN 007 02 295 04 SATL 025
T000 134N 0597E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
105 NE QD 130 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 138N 0589E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 140N 0582E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 142N 0576E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 143N 0572E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 145N 0557E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 147N 0533E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 141N 0493E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-10-09 16:33

WTIO51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009130141
2018100912 05A LUBAN 007 02 295 04 SATL 025
T000 134N 0597E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 138N 0589E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 140N 0582E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 142N 0576E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 143N 0572E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 145N 0557E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 147N 0533E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 141N 0493E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.8N 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.0N 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.2N 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.3N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.5N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.7N 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.1N 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 0
91200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
UPDATES.//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 129N 606E 50
0518100900 129N 606E 50
0518100906 132N 601E 55
0518100906 132N 601E 55
0518100912 134N 597E 55
0518100912 134N 597E 55
NNNN

2018-10-09 16:33

WTIO31 PGTW 091500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.8N 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-09 16:33

WTIO31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.8N 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.0N 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.2N 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.3N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.5N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.7N 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.1N 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE; HOWEVER, RAIN
BANDS CONTINUED TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY DEEP, FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE
090934Z 36 GHZ GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD BUT LIMITED RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUBAN WILL TRACK MORE
WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS, AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE CLOSE TO MUKALLA,
OMAN, IN THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF ADEN. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE VERY SLOW INTENSIFICATION UP TO 65 KNOTS BY
TAU 48; AFTERWARD, RISING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT WILL BE WEAKENED TO 50 KNOTS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS HEADING
MORE POLEWARD TOWARD SALALAH, AND THE MINORITY - INCLUDING ECMWF AND
ECMN - OFFERING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS LAID CLOSER
TO THE LATTER SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR. GIVEN THE
LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 0
91200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-09 11:35

WTIO51 PGTW 090900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009072654
2018100906 05A LUBAN 006 02 300 06 SATL 025
T000 132N 0601E 055 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 137N 0592E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 139N 0584E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 142N 0576E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 144N 0567E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 144N 0555E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 145N 0532E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 142N 0499E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-10-09 11:35

WTIO51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009072654
2018100906 05A LUBAN 006 02 300 06 SATL 025
T000 132N 0601E 055 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 137N 0592E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 139N 0584E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 142N 0576E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 144N 0567E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 144N 0555E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 145N 0532E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 142N 0499E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.7N 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.9N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.2N 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.4N 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.4N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.5N 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.2N 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 59.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 129N 606E 50
0518100900 129N 606E 50
0518100906 132N 601E 55
0518100906 132N 601E 55
NNNN

2018-10-09 11:35

WTIO31 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.7N 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-09 11:35

WTIO31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.7N 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.9N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.2N 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.4N 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.4N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.5N 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.2N 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 59.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE;
HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE
090308Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55KTS AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE OVERALL WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD BUT LIMITED RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 05A WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE STR
BUILDS, AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF MUKALA, OMAN, IN
THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF ADEN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48; AFTERWARD, RISING
VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT
WILL BE WEAKENED TO 50 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS HEADING MORE POLEWARD TOWARD
SALALAH, AND THE MINORITY - INCLUDING ECMWF AND CTCX - OFFERING A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS LAID CLOSER TO THE LATTER
SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-09 05:36

WTIO51 PGTW 090300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009011544
2018100900 05A LUBAN 005 01 305 07 SATL 030
T000 129N 0606E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 133N 0598E 055 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 136N 0590E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 140N 0581E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 143N 0572E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 142N 0558E 070 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 139N 0534E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 136N 0503E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

2018-10-09 05:36

WTIO51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009011544
2018100900 05A LUBAN 005 01 305 07 SATL 030
T000 129N 0606E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 133N 0598E 055 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 136N 0590E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 140N 0581E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 143N 0572E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 142N 0558E 070 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 139N 0534E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 136N 0503E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.3N 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.6N 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.0N 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.3N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.2N 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.9N 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.6N 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 60.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100900 129N 606E 50
0518100900 129N 606E 50
NNNN

2018-10-09 05:36

WTIO31 PGTW 090300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.3N 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-09 05:36

WTIO31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.3N 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.6N 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.0N 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.3N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.2N 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.9N 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.6N 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 60.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH AND
SOUTH INTO PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 082105Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH CLEARLY DEPICTS A WARM BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE NOTCH FEATURE
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS SUPPORTED BY PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-T3.5 (45-55 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH 15-20 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DRY AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE SOUTH. TC 05A
IS BEING STEERED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE
STEERING. TC 05A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, THEN SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. THERE IS A BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS, WITH THE SPLIT
BEING EVIDENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED
AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY ECMWF, COAMPS-GFS, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH MAINTAINS
THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND STEER THE CYCLONE ONTO A WESTERLY
TRACK AFTER TAU 48. THE OTHER MODELS (GALWEM, GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM)
BUILD THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, STEERING TC 05A NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE BORDER BETWEEN OMAN AND YEMEN. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WAS
CHOSEN BASED, IN PART, ON THE FACT THAT EVERY MEMBER IN THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE DEPICTED A TRACK TOWARDS THE GULF OF ADEN. TC 05A IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE AND THE
CYCLONE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE COAMPS-GFS SOLUTION WHICH
PREDICTS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-08 23:34

WTIO51 PGTW 082100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008194400
2018100818 05A LUBAN 004 01 290 05 SATL 030
T000 125N 0612E 050 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 125 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 129N 0604E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 133N 0596E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 136N 0589E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 140N 0578E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 144N 0563E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 147N 0542E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 147N 0513E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 61.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2018-10-08 23:34

WTIO51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008194400
2018100818 05A LUBAN 004 01 290 05 SATL 030
T000 125N 0612E 050 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 129N 0604E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 133N 0596E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 136N 0589E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 140N 0578E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 144N 0563E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 147N 0542E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 147N 0513E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 61.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 61.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.9N 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.3N 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.6N 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.0N 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.4N 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.7N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.7N 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 61.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 122N 619E 45
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100812 123N 617E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
0518100818 125N 612E 50
NNNN

2018-10-08 23:34

WTIO31 PGTW 082100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 61.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 61.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.9N 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-08 23:34

WTIO31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 61.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 61.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.9N 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.3N 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.6N 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.0N 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.4N 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.7N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.7N 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 61.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH AND
SOUTH INTO A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081655Z MHS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY DEPICTS THE BANDING FEATURES
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
50 KT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KTS, RESPECTIVELY)
AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 081559Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). THE
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AS TC 05A IS LOCATED NEAR A WEAKNESS IN AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE
WEAKNESS IS BEING CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE STR. TC 05A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72, THEN SHIFT MORE WESTWARD. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT
IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS THE STR SPLITS RESULTING IN TWO PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIOS, DEPENDING ON WHICH OF TWO RIDGES DOMINATES. THE ECMWF,
COAMPS-GFS, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HWRF FAVOR
THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST DOMINATING CAUSING A WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE OTHER MEMBERS FAVOR THE STR
TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
BORDER BETWEEN OMAN AND YEMEN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
NORTHWEST STR DOMINATING AND LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GROUP
TRACK. TC 05A SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
48, THEN LEVEL OFF BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND THE
CYCLONE STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LOOSELY
FOLLOWS THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHICH HAS
WEAKENED ABOUT 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLE. CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-08 18:33

WTIO51 PGTW 081500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008143641
2018100812 05A LUBAN 003 01 290 03 SATL 025
T000 122N 0616E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 105 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 126N 0608E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 130N 0598E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 133N 0591E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 136N 0583E 070 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 141N 0566E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD
100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 143N 0544E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 146N 0515E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

2018-10-08 18:33

WTIO31 PGTW 081500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.6N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-08 17:35

WTIO51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008143641
2018100812 05A LUBAN 003 01 290 03 SATL 025
T000 122N 0616E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 105 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 126N 0608E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 130N 0598E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 133N 0591E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 136N 0583E 070 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 141N 0566E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 143N 0544E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 146N 0515E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.6N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0N 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.3N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.6N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.1N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.3N 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 123N 623E 35
0518100806 121N 619E 45
0518100812 122N 616E 50
0518100812 122N 616E 50
NNNN

2018-10-08 17:35

WTIO31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.6N 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0N 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.3N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.6N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.1N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.3N 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT
AREA OF DEEP PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURE SEEN IN
MSI IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 081226Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KTS, IN THE MIDDLE OF PGTW AND
KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING T3.0 (45 KTS) TO T3.5 (55
KTS), SUPPORTED BY ADT ESTIMATES OF T3.1 (47 KTS) AND T3.4 (53 KTS)
FROM CIMSS AND NSOF, RESPECTIVELY. GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28
CELSIUS) ARE CURRENTLY OVERCOMING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (15-25 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENABLING STEADY DEVELOPMENT. TC LUBAN IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO
A STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN INDIA AND ANOTHER STR
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SAUDI ARABIA, WHILE A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH PASSES WEST-TO-EAST AND SPLITS THE TWO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LATEST RUN, FAVORING THE DEPICTION
OF THE ECMWF IN WHICH THE STR CENTERED OVER SAUDI ARABIA EVENTUALLY
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE, ALLOWING TC LUBAN TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD RATHER THAN TURNING NORTHWARD. TC 05A IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUE ITS STEADY DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES INHIBITED ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KTS AROUND TAU 72.
AFTER TAU 72, 05A IS EXPECTED TO CEASE DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS OUTFLOW IS FURTHER INHIBITED AND SSTS DECREASE.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED JUST LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DUE TO
THE TWO STEERING SCENARIOS AND THE RESULTING 350 NM SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE AT TAU 120, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE (I.E. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z,
090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-08 12:34

WTIO51 PGTW 080900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008082019
2018100806 05A LUBAN 002 01 260 07 SATL 035
T000 123N 0616E 045 R034 145 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 128N 0606E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 132N 0595E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 135N 0587E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 139N 0578E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 144N 0564E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 150N 0545E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD
090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 155N 0521E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2018-10-08 12:34

WTIO31 PGTW 080900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.8N 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.2N 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-10-08 11:47

WTIO51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008082019
2018100806 05A LUBAN 002 01 260 07 SATL 035
T000 123N 0616E 045 R034 145 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 128N 0606E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 132N 0595E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 135N 0587E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 139N 0578E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 144N 0564E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 150N 0545E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 155N 0521E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.8N 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.2N 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.5N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.9N 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.4N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.0N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.5N 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 61.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 124N 623E 35
0518100806 123N 616E 45
NNNN

2018-10-08 11:47

WTIO31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.8N 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.2N 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.5N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.9N 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.4N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.0N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.5N 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 61.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO DEEP PERSISTENT
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURE SEEN IN MSI IMAGERY,
SUPPORTED BY A 080511Z METOP-B AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 45 KTS, ON THE LOW END OF PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING T3.0 (45 KTS) TO T3.5 (55 KTS), SUPPORTED BY AN
ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A 080512Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING TWO 45 KT WIND BARBS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 DEGREES C) ARE OVERCOMING
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENABLING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. TC 05A IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTH. A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING WEST-TO-EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR IS CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW
TC 05A TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS EASTERN YEMEN. THE ECMWF
AND COAMPS-TC MODELS DEPICT AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE STR
AHEAD OF TC 05A IS MAINTAINED, CAUSING 05A TO TURN WESTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF ADEN WHERE IT WOULD INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC
05A IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SINGS OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD SEEM
TO FAVOR IT BREAKING THROUGH THE GAP IN THE STR, AS DEPICTED BY THE
BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE ITS RAPID DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
TAU 12, AFTER WHICH POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES INHIBITED ALLOWING FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70
KTS AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED JUST LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 72, 05A IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS OUTFLOW IS FURTHER INHIBITED AND VWS INCREASES SLIGHTLY.
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTLIERS AND THE RESULTING 400 NM SPREAD
IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 120, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (I.E. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-08 04:32

WTIO51 PGTW 080300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008011453
2018100800 05A FIVE 001 01 300 08 SATL 060
T000 124N 0623E 035 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 130N 0612E 045 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 134N 0599E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 138N 0590E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 142N 0582E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 147N 0571E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 152N 0550E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 155N 0526E 050 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-10-08 04:32

WTIO51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008011453
2018100800 05A FIVE 001 01 300 08 SATL 060
T000 124N 0623E 035 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 130N 0612E 045 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 134N 0599E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 138N 0590E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 142N 0582E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 147N 0571E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 152N 0550E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 155N 0526E 050 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.0N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.4N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8N 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.2N 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.7N 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.2N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.5N 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
//
0518100500 111N 723E 15
0518100506 115N 714E 15
0518100512 113N 702E 15
0518100518 112N 693E 20
0518100600 111N 683E 25
0518100606 111N 673E 25
0518100612 112N 666E 25
0518100618 112N 661E 25
0518100700 113N 656E 25
0518100706 115N 652E 30
0518100712 121N 643E 30
0518100718 120N 630E 30
0518100800 124N 623E 35
NNNN

2018-10-08 04:32

WTIO31 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.0N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.4N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-08 04:32

WTIO31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.0N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.4N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8N 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.2N 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.7N 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.2N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.5N 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING BANDING WRAPPING INTO
DEEPENING PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN INFLOW NOTCH IN THE EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS, IN THE MIDDLE OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 (30 KTS) TO
T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM DEMS, PGTW, AND KNES. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 DEGREES C) ARE BALANCING
MODERATE (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENABLING DEVELOPMENT. TC
05A IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTH. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING WEST-TO-EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR IS
CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 05A TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE GALWEM, UKMET, AND ECMWF MODELS ARE THE SOUTHERN
OUTLIERS, WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF ECMWF TRACKING 05A WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF OF ADEN AND MAINTAINING IT OVER WATER FAR LONGER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. NAVGEM AND GFS PREDICT A MORE DRAMATIC BREAK IN
THE STR, A TIGHTER TURN TOWARDS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, AND
LANDFALL IN OMAN AFTER TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED
BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF SOLUTION TO THE SOUTH.
TC 05A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KTS BY TAU
96. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER TAU 48 AND SSTS WILL COOL
TO 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOSER TO THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, WHICH WILL
HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE 315 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120,
THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
2. THIS SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 070830).//
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